Sunday 5 April 2020

Shifting the Blame

In the midst of daily terrible news, at last yesterday brought real hope in the form of a convincing win for new leadership of the Labour Party and common sense prevailing at the MoJ regarding releasing 4,000 prisoners. 

Especially in the midst of a world pandemic that threatens not only life but the very future of all our political, economic and social structures, it would seem sensible to just draw a veil over the last few years. Many will feel there is at last a competant leader of the opposition that looks and sounds more like a prime minister than the present shambling occupant of No10. In the end that's all that matters, the public getting used to the idea there is a viable alternative in waiting and that can't come quickly enough. 

I honestly don't think there are words strong enough to describe how dreadful the Tory media machine has been this week in trying to shift the narrative for blame away from the government and on to the NHS, such as this in the Telegraph from the cringing and obsequious former editor Charles Moore:- 

The inflexibility of our lumbering NHS is why the country has had to shut down

"Why are we clapping the NHS? It is right and just to clap NHS workers, but that is not the same thing. Virtually everyone has reason to thank good nurses, doctors and paramedics. But if we are to praise large organisations for how effectively they have dealt with the coronavirus crisis, we should be clapping vigorously for Sainsbury’s, Tesco, Waitrose and Morrisons, who have responded nimbly to sudden extra demand for one of life’s basics – food. We should give only rather tepid applause for the efforts of the NHS to look after another of life’s basics – health.

As its name suggests, the National Health Service is there to serve the health of the nation. In this crisis, the roles have reversed – it is seen as the duty of the nation to serve the NHS. “Protect the NHS. Save lives,” says the slogan, in that rather surprising order. Children are made to recite it like a prayer. How are we to do this? We must help the NHS by avoiding hospitals and surgeries, we are told. The Government’s policy of lockdown is in significant part dictated by the demands not of patients, but of the NHS, and by its lack of adaptability and readiness...."


--oo00oo--

The paywall prevents much more, but readers will get the drift. Despite the spin, we all know it has been ten years of deliberate under-funding of the NHS that have left us unprepared for the pandemic. This from the Guardian in December 2019:- 

The number of hospital beds has fallen to its lowest level ever, despite the head of the NHS warning that bed closures have gone too far. The health service in England has cut so many beds in recent years that it has just 127,225 left to cope with the rising demand for care, which will intensify as winter starts to bite.

In total, 17,230 beds have been cut from the 144,455 that existed in April-June 2010, the period when the coalition Conservative/Liberal Democrat government took office and imposed a nine-year funding squeeze on the NHS, even though critics cautioned against it because of growing pressures on the service.

The 127,225 figure is the smallest number of beds available in acute hospitals, maternity centres and units specialising in the care of patients with mental health problems and learning disabilities since records began in 1987/88.

--oo00oo--

Given that the dire consequences of this under-funding are becoming acutely apparent, the servile Tory media have started to collude in shamelessly trying to shift the blame and attention has particularly focused on the gross lack of life-saving ventilators. The Charles Moore article goes on:-

"Behind that ventilator comparison lies a story. Three weeks ago, the NHS belatedly admitted within government that it had failed to get enough ventilators. The Cabinet Office stepped in to help procure. Thanks in part to the energy of the distinguished surgeon Professor Lord Kakkar, University College Hospital, Formula I and Mercedes Benz got together to produce the CPAP (Continuous Positive Airways Pressure) machines that are one up on normal oxygen masks but less invasive than the full, intubating ventilators. Next week, the repurposed Mercedes Benz F1 factory in Brixworth expects to produce 1,000 CPAPs a day.

In his skilful performance at the daily virus press conference on Thursday, the recovering Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, obliquely expressed his frustration. He exclaimed how well “non-ventilator companies” had come up with inventive solutions to produce ventilators fast. He issued a “call out” to British life sciences, laboratories and universities to do likewise for antibody tests."


--oo00oo--

There is indeed a story to the lack of ventilators and the blame lies firmly with a Tory government. This from The New Statesman of 16th March:-

Government documents show no planning for ventilators in the event of a pandemic

After failing to prepare, the UK now faces a grave shortage of the machines that will keep critical patients alive.

In October 2016 the UK government ran a national pandemic flu exercise, codenamed Exercise Cygnus. The report of its findings was not made publicly available, but the then chief medical officer Sally Davies commented on what she had learnt from it in December 2016.

“We’ve just had in the UK a three-day exercise on flu, on a pandemic that killed a lot of people,” she told the World Innovation Summit for Health at the time. “It became clear that we could not cope with the excess bodies,” Davies said. One conclusion was that Britain, as Davies put it, faced the threat of “inadequate ventilation” in a future pandemic. She was referring to the need for ventilation machines, which keep oxygen pumping in patients critically ill with a respiratory disease such as coronavirus.

Despite the severe failings exposed by Exercise Cygnus, the government’s planning for a future pandemic did not change after December 2016 – at least not formally. The government’s roadmap for how to respond to a coronavirus-like pandemic has long been available online, and the three key documents – the 70-page “Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy”, 78-page “Health and Social Care Influenza Pandemic Preparedness and Response” and 88-page “Pandemic Influenza Response Plan” – were published in 2011, 2012 and 2014 respectively. These plans were tested and failed, yet these documents were not rewritten or revised.

They share a glaring shortcoming: not one of them mentions ventilators, which are now in such high demand that Matthew Hancock, the Health Secretary, told British manufacturers on 14 March, “If you produce a ventilator, we will buy it. No number [you produce] is too high.” He urged firms from Rolls-Royce to JCB to stop what they do and to begin making ventilators.

The government does not have a stockpile of ventilators, as the documents made clear and Hancock has confirmed. All three of the plans refer to stockpiles, but only of antivirals, antibiotics and personal protective equipment for NHS staff. Aside from face masks, the only mention of equipment in Public Health England’s Pandemic Response Plan is to do with IT staff being trained to use smart boards. Medical devices are not mentioned in any of the documents.

Hancock’s entreaty to manufacturers was the first time the government has publicly recognised Britain’s urgent need for more ventilators – six weeks after the first cases of coronavirus were reported in the UK on 31 January. But the necessity for the devices in any pandemic has long been clear. As the 2011 preparedness strategy puts it, “Critical care services… are likely to see increases in demand during even a mild influenza pandemic. In a moderate or severe influenza pandemic demand may outstrip supply, even when capacity is maximised… it may become necessary to make decisions concerning priority of access to some services.”

“Plans to increase capacity of these [critical care] services are an important aspect of planning,” the document continues, but these putative plans are strikingly absent from the government's otherwise extensive documents. And Downing Street officials have, according to the Sunday Times on 15 March, found such planning to be non-existent. Pre-existing pandemic plans, an official is quoted as saying, “never went into the operational detail”.

Britain now faces a grave shortage of the machines that will keep critical patients alive. By combining government statements with publicly available documents, that shortage can be estimated. The government expects between 60 and 80 per cent of the population to contract coronavirus, or between 40 and 53 million people. Assumptions laid out in 2018 by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, or SPI-M – a working group of 10 academic teams – predict that 4 per cent of cases will require hospitalisation; this is in line with estimates for Covid-19, the disease that is caused by the virus Sars-Cov-2, both commonly referred to as coronavirus.

SPI-M's modelling also assumes that a quarter of those hospitalised will need a ventilator; this, too, aligns with the World Health Organisation's findings on coronavirus in China, and may even be an under-estimate. In short, at least 1 per cent of all cases can be expected to need ventilation, or between 400,000 and 530,000 people. Modelling released on March 16 by a team at Imperial College, which has informed government planning, suggests a 1.3 per cent rate. That rate has risen after new data from Italy.

The government has said that it expects 95 per cent of all cases to occur over a nine-week period, with 50 per cent coming during a three-week peak. This reflects modelling by SPI-M in 2018, available online, and the course of the 1957 influenza pandemic in the UK. This means that during the peak, which is expected to arrive in Britain in late May or June, 15 to 20 per cent of all coronavirus cases will hit the NHS every week for three weeks. Assuming only a 1 per cent rate, rather than the higher rate in Imperial's latest modelling, the number of patients needing a ventilator would therefore range from 60,000 per week to more than 100,000.

The United Kingdom has 5,000 ventilators. Many are sure to already be in use, as ventilators are deployed with intensive care beds, and Britain’s intensive care beds run at 70 to 80 per cent capacity most months. Each ventilator will typically be required for at least ten days, making the gap between demand and supply more acute over time.

On 25 February, Bruce Aylward – the epidemiologist who led the recent WHO mission to China – returned from Wuhan, where the crisis began, and gave a warning to the world. China, Aylward explained, had done something extraordinary. It had managed to wrest control of an exponentially expanding epidemic. “When you spend 20, 30 years in this business,” Aylward said, holding up a graph that showed the improbable slowdown in cases across China, “it's, like, ‘Seriously, you're going to try and change that [curve] with those tactics?’”

The UK has not attempted to emulate China's response, or those of other countries such as Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan that have successfully curbed, or held back, Covid-19. But the government’s high-risk strategy is informed by a belief that coronavirus cannot be stopped and that the success of others in checking it is only temporary – because the virus will return once people resume normal life. The government’s strategy is led by Christopher Whitty, the chief medical officer for England. Professor Whitty is an epidemiologist and is recognised as brilliant in his field. “He is a very thoughtful and careful man,” Deirdre Hollingsworth, a leading epidemiologist at Oxford University, told me.

Whitty is not only respected but has long prepared for a pandemic. As the professor of physic at Gresham College – a position which dates back to the 16th century and reflects his standing – his 2018 lecture series was on how to control one.

He now has a real-life pandemic to control, and his bold strategy is increasingly being doubted. He recently told a parliamentary select committee that the NHS will “flex” and cope in the face of coronavirus. But with a bewildering absence of ventilators, inexplicably unmentioned in official plans and already in short supply, it is not clear how.


Harry Lambert

29 comments:

  1. Increasingly the public are taking note of how wealthy individuals, businesses and institutions are responding to the pandemic and this is a somewhat interesting bit of an argument from football and not a good look:-

    The Professional Footballers' Association says proposals for a 30% pay cut for Premier League players would be "detrimental to our NHS". The PFA also called on the league to increase its own £20m charity pledge.

    The government has said it is "concerned" by what it called "infighting". The league wants players to take a 30% salary cut in order to protect jobs, amid the coronavirus pandemic. But the union says that equates to more than £500m in wage reductions, and a loss in tax contributions of more than £200m to the UK government.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. https://www.themag.co.uk/2020/04/mike-ashley-pulls-the-plug-on-saturday-3pm-retro-newcastle-united-matches-online-for-fans/

      Delete
    2. Mike Ashley pulls the plug on Saturday 3pm retro Newcastle United matches online for fans

      Whist the rest of us are in lockdown, Mike Ashley has fled to Miami. After acting disgracefully with regard to both Newcastle United and his retail empire during this virus crisis, Ashley fleeing the scene of his crimes for a place in the sun at his Miami mansion.

      Amongst his actions at Newcastle United, the club’s owner refused to pay casual matchday workers as normal as other decent Premier League clubs are doing whilst games are cancelled.

      Amongst the numerous staff to be furloughed by Mike Ashley, are the club’s social media staff. So another casualty thanks to Mike Ashley, opting out of paying the low paid staff now means there is nobody left to put on these Saturday 3pm retro match events.

      Delete
    3. The owners of the ExCeL centre in east London are charging the NHS millions of pounds in rent to use it as a temporary hospital for coronavirus patients.

      The ExCeL, owned by the Abu Dhabi National Exhibitions Company (Adnec), is charging the health service £2m-£3m a month, according to industry sources.

      *******

      Jacob Rees-Mogg's firm is accused of profiteering from coronavirus as it boasts of 'once in a generation' chance to cash in on investments.

      Jacob Rees-Mogg's firm is accused of profiteering from the coronavirus crisis. Somerset Capital Management is advising clients to seize 'once in a generation' chance to reap in 'super normal returns' as stock markets fall
      Investments include hospitals in Brazil and pharmacies in South Africa.

      It comes as Western economists have warned that Britain's lockdown is causing an economic downturn potentially more severe than the Great Recession.

      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8188349/Jacob-Rees-Moggs-firm-accused-profiteering-coronavirus-economic-crisis.html




      Delete
    4. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8188185/amp/Britain-pursue-Beijing-courts-coronavirus-compensation-study-claims.html

      Delete
    5. Yes operation distraction in full swing:-

      Britain should pursue the Chinese government through international courts for £351 billion in coronavirus compensation, a major study into the crisis has concluded.

      It comes as 15 senior Tories led by former Deputy Prime Minister Damian Green write to Boris Johnson to demand a 'rethink and a reset' in relations with Beijing.

      The first comprehensive investigation into the global economic impact of the outbreak concludes that the G7 group of the world's leading economies have been hit by a £3.2 trillion bill that could have been avoided if the Chinese Communist Party had been open and honest about the outbreak late last year.

      Delete
    6. ExCel owners have done an amazingly quick u-turn in response to the Times report about how much the NHS was being charged in rent.

      Someone at JP Morgan has been quoted to have said about investing in the current crisis
      "when people are seen to be greedy be fearful with investment.
      But when people are seen to be fearful then it's time to be greedy with investment".
      I find it a dispicable quote, but it seems its the mantra Reese Mogg is working to?

      https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-52172007

      'Getafix

      Delete
    7. The Mail article is all about distraction and anti-Huawei sentiment. I suppose giving column inches to this story is not as bad as, say, 5G and coronavirus conspiracies, but it's still in the realms of smoke and mirrors. And even On Probation Blog is giving it coverage, which must please those who enjoy scapegoating.

      Delete
  2. And while the Tories profit, Boris hides away with his personal ventilator and we’re all encouraged to pin the blame on footballers for not taking a safe cut, poor prison and probation officers are further put at risk be having to process 4000 prison release which will be expected to be given appointments at probation offices.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. *pay cut* not safe cut !

      Delete
    2. Actually they are released on temporary licence and won't be supervised by probation. This is according to Jo Farrar on the NPS intranet. I assume they will be supervised from their conditional release date.

      Delete
    3. Probation is risk adverse. They will demand additional supervision in advance of licences starting.

      Delete
    4. .. and CRCs particularly are not going to miss out on extra revenue opportunities.

      Delete
  3. Hi I apologise in diverting from the main topic for this post, but have no one else to clarify with and information is large scaled and confusing, especially in the prison. Have we had the EDM for the prisons yet as the one I obtained was a virtual duplicate of the prisons own views on what tasks are necessary and involed face to face contact. Info which was available a week or so before the duplicate info I got given indicating it related to prison POs. Also I was told the 150 pounds a month related to an amount in addition to the overtime money offered, yet a colleague said this is separate to that. I am not doing overtime but we have to apply for this 150 pounds? Also are we as POs wether in the LDUs or prisons responsible for arranging how the work is facilitated to cover or transmit the work to colleagues self isolating but working from home. Prison admin is not the same as outside. I am at the end of my tether, more work is being piled on, no real management oversight and no clear answers. Hoping colleagues can help with what's going in where they are.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have not seen a prison EDM. From what I see, OMU SPO’s are doing whatever prison governors tell them to do - they are basically lackeys. The prison contingency plan will be your EDM.

      The £150 is additional to your overtime pay, but I doubt you could claim both payments for the same hours. In fact if you tried to they’d probably sack you.

      Delete
    2. The £150 pm is not for additional hours it is paid to those working in offender facing roles. It is separate to other payments.

      Delete
    3. Hi thank you 1225 and 1238. I agree Spos doing what the prison instructs them to. The overtime I am too exhausted to do given how exhausting the situation is there and extra work shoved over to POs from prison poms by their management but the 150 will but not sure if you have to apply. I heard Spos are getting a much higher amount but unclear why when basically left with little management direction

      Delete
    4. Unless you’ve got a human ACO ‘bonus’ payments will be difficult to obtain for all. It is only the ACOs and above that will benefit as will automatically receive these payments alongside their expense and unsocial hours claims for all their ‘hard work’. Directors will receive the same alongside MBEs for all their ‘leadership’. Those right at the top, Sonia Crozier, Jo Farrar and Amy Rees will be promoted to the high echelons of the MoJ and Civil Service for all their ‘strategy’. None will have to leave the safety of their homes, and any that do will be to offices with tight security measures in place.

      .... meanwhile the poor receptionists, admins, probation officers and senior probation officers are left to JFDI and any that drop dead (and sadly many could) will be replaced and forgotten within 3 days.

      Delete
  4. And while you're trying to fathom out whether you're entitled to apply for the measly £150 for risking the health, and potentially the life, of yourself and your family members, LDU Heads will automatically be taking home 10 times that sum - a cool £1500 - every month to 'virtually' oversee their staff. But take heart... we're all on this together...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Believe me I'm not worried about the money, more concerned that we are expected to keep going in and see people without any protection. I have no idea what senior managers are doing as it seems bugger all just sick of getting vauge misleading information if any. I think it's a disgrace that those who order us into these situation sit back do very little and remotely at that.

      Delete
  5. It doesn't look good and only reinforces the 'them and us' concept - not only in Probation, but in society as well. Managers get £1500 / month for oversight at a safe distance and it is still unclear whether front line Probation staff which includes Probation Officers, Receptionists et al have to apply or are entitled to a measly £150 for regular face to face contact with some of the most vulnerable people in society. What has this organisation come to - an absolute joke.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How is it they can provide this additional money, but cannot pay the incremental increase that was due to us on 1 April, but as usual, has not been paid. It's all gone VERY quiet about this. This was a significant increase for many of us who are still not at the top of the pay scale after 17 years!!

      Delete
    2. Yes 23.15 a point I'd wondered about. The whole thing is one big joke and we are treated appallingly by the organisation. Senior manager for stakeholders prisons in NPS would not even take any questions after a recent briefing put this on the Spos to filter them up to him. That shows the attitude towards us as simply minions who are disposable also.

      Delete
  6. How many of them will have the guts of the Scottish CMO Calderwood who, after fucking up big style by travelling TWICE to her 'holiday home' over the last two weekends, faced very hostile press, apologised unreservedly & fielded justifiably angry questions & challenges to her position.

    Outrageously stupid to have 'flouted her own advice', but credit for taking the hits rather than resigning & hiding.

    Can you see ANY of the HMPPS/NPS/CRC lot doing anything other than either (1) justifying it or (b) running away?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Scottish CMO - what a gal. First she ignores her own advice, is cautioned by the police, torn a new one by Sturgeon, faces a twitter shitstorm, takes one helluva kicking in the press conference & keeps her dignity - THEN resigns!

      Delete
  7. Boris Johnson admitted to hospital with persistent coronavirus symptoms.

    ReplyDelete
  8. "Not an emergency admission" ...just one of those common or garden admissions that any one of us could call in if we needed it then... Like I say: Take heart. We're all in this together.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Maybe he realises how crap the current situation is & has decided to "ramp it up" & allow Cummings to begin Operation Easter where DePfeffel is hospitalised & we all think he's a goner, but then... Look! He is Risen!

    ReplyDelete
  10. Marie Orrell (NPS NW Senior Manager) has tweeted this blog “LDU heads are not guaranteed any payments.”

    Marie has omitted if LDU heads will be expecting these rather significant payments.

    Marie has omitted whether she’s expecting regular payments of £1500 for her “leadership”.

    Marie has omitted if all the probation workers in the NW will be receiving the £150 payments.

    In Marie’s defence, she doesn’t speak for LDU heads, her “views are her own” !

    ReplyDelete