Thought Piece 7

In case anyone hasn't realised it thus far, irrespective of PAC & uncle tom cobbly, NO-ONE in Westminster or Whitehall or MoJ or HMPPS gives a crap about the predicament of probation staff. Why? Because it doesn't affect *them*.

Only when someone's job or promotion or public reputation is on the line will anyone with half-a-chance of making a difference raise an eyebrow &, at a stretch, wonder what the fuss is about. They're not in positions of power because they give a crap; its because they *DON'T* give a crap. They're teflon.

The cobbler, lammy, the invisible woman, young ewan mcgregor (or whoever it is)... they're all invested in tech & prisons - probation staff are merely cannon fodder. Ask yourselves: why would they be interested in reversing all of the PR & vested interest & public cash spent building cosy relationships with the tech & incarceration industries? What is the biggest risk they take?

1. Pissing off powerful people with excellent corporate entertainment & razor-sharp lawyers? OR
2. Stuffing up a handful of whiny bastards who they've been treating like shit with impunity for a decade or two? Less than a third are in a frail union led by a hapless wannabe, and even fewer are in a union that says "yes" to every govt proposal.

As of December 2025, resident doctors (formerly known as junior doctors) in England have staged 14 separate rounds of strike action since the dispute began in March 2023. They've voted again in favour of a further 6 months of action if required:

Number entitled to vote in the ballot: 54,432
Number of votes cast in the ballot: 28,598 = 52.54%
Number of spoilt/invalid voting papers returned: 17

Result of voting:
Yes: 26,696 (93.40%)
No: 1,885 (6.60%)

27,000 of the most committed & critical workers in the country have not yet achieved their aim because the teflon-coated, cloth-eared ideologues in Westminster & Whitehall feel able to ignore them for the past 3 years. The most recent ballot *might* just have twisted Streeting's lugs BUT... I suspect it's more likely he's positioning himself as Starmer's successor & making himself out to be the resolver of the issue.

Probation staff do not have the same leverage & will not have the same effect upon lammy, a deputy pm desperate to step-up, because he's already laid out his tag'em & bag'em agenda.

*******
I understand the frustration behind this, but I don’t think it’s as simple as “they don’t care.” It’s worse than that. Probation doesn’t move votes. Hospitals collapsing move votes. Trains not running move votes. Doctors striking move votes. When 27,000 resident doctors vote 93% for industrial action, it makes front-page news and creates immediate political risk.

Probation? We operate in the shadows. When it fails, it’s framed as individual practitioner failure, not systemic collapse. When it holds things together, no one notices. That’s the difference. It’s not personal malice. It’s political calculus.

And right now the political calculus favours:
• prisons (because visible custody reassures the public),
• tagging (because tech looks modern and decisive),
• “tough community sentences” (because it sounds robust).

What doesn’t generate headlines?
Workload ratios.
Case quality.
Professional discretion.
Emotional strain.
Retention.

You’re right about leverage. Doctors can withdraw labour and the NHS feels it immediately. Teachers can strike and parents feel it within hours. Probation withdrawing labour would cause disruption, but it’s slower, more diffuse, easier to spin as irresponsibility. That doesn’t mean we’re powerless. It means influence won’t come from outrage alone. It comes from unity, turnout, credibility and sustained pressure.

If less than a third of staff are union members, and turnout is patchy, decision-makers will calculate that the noise is containable. The uncomfortable truth is this: power responds to risk. Until probation creates political risk (reputational, operational, electoral) it will remain a lower priority than prisons and headline management. That’s not because staff are “whiny.” It’s because we’re structurally easy to ignore. The question isn’t whether they care, the question is how we make it cost them not to.

Thought Piece 6

Firstly, I vote no!

Secondly, I agree with the Public Accounts Committee, a well-run probation service is a must-have. That much is obvious. What isn’t obvious is how anyone thinks a service on its knees can be stabilised with a measly 4% pay offer. If we’re serious about building something that actually works, then 20% is a starting point, not some wild, irresponsible demand. You don’t rescue a collapsing system with loose change, glossy adverts and motivational quotes.

No one is surprised that HMPPS’s latest shiny programme, Our Future Probation Service, is unlikely to be sufficient. A rebrand is not reform. It’s the same system, the same pressures, the same culture of JFDI and abuse just wrapped in nicer language. And the delusions of AI and increased tagging as a solution? That’s technological wishful thinking dressed up as policy.

Probation services in England and Wales can be brought back from the brink, the PAC report alludes to this, but only if leaders are willing to confront the culture and problems that’s helped drive it there. A culture built on the abuse of goodwill, routine gaslighting of staff, relentless emotional strain, and the normalisation of trauma is not a foundation. You can’t physically, financially and emotionally drain a workforce, while under resourcing the service itself, and then act shocked when the system fails.

Thirdly, can we stop with the emotional manipulation? Stop the false advertising calling frontline staff and work “extraordinary”. Stop brainwashing staff into thinking “we don’t do this job for the money”.

I do come to work to be paid. I’m not a “hero” and my work is not “extraordinary”. That’s not cynical, that’s reality. If the Chief Probation Officer and the layers of Regional Directors, Heads of Operations and Heads of PDUs truly come to work purely for the love of the job, they’re welcome to wear a cape and donate their salaries to the people on the frontline actually holding the risk, the caseloads, and the consequences when things go wrong.

Lastly, frontline practitioners already know the solutions to the probation crisis. The committees have heard us. The inspectors have heard us. The inquiries have heard us. The evidence exists. The voices are there. The only thing missing is the will of the leaders to act.

Probation Officer

--oo00oo--

Probation services pushed to the brink of collapse in England and Wales risk endangering public

A new report from the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) warns that the Probation Service in England and Wales is being placed under significant strain, seriously impeding its ability to protect the public and reduce reoffending rates.

Read the report
Read the report (PDF)
Inquiry: Efficiency and resilience of the Probation Service
Public Accounts Committee

In 2024-25, HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) spent £1.34bn on the Probation Service. The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) estimates that the economic and social cost of reoffending across adult offenders is around £20.9bn a year.

The number of prisoners recalled to prison is at an all-time high. At the end of March 2025, the recall prison population was 13,583, accounting for 15% of the prison population, a 49% increase since June 2021.

Since the Probation Service was brought under full public control in 2021, its performance has deteriorated, along with an overall rise in reoffending rates. Last year, the service met just seven of its 27 performance targets. Three years earlier it was meeting half of its targets.

HMPPS’s’ new programme, Our Future Probation Service, was introduced in an effort to combat this declining performance. However, the PAC warn that this is unlikely to be sufficient.

The MoJ does not have a strong history of implementing digital change programmes well, and crucially they have yet to make decisions on changes they plan to make to the level of supervision some offenders receive.

Given the risk these decisions could pose to the public, the PAC is calling for the MoJ and HMPPS to set clear thresholds for the level of risk they are willing to accept, to help monitor operational and public protection risks.

Evidence to the inquiry showed that people classed as low-risk often require support to prevent them reoffending. HMPPS’ planned changes to probation will likely reduce supervision for these lower-risk offenders, while involving a large increase in electronic monitoring.

Noting serious performance issues with the electronic monitoring service, including delays by Serco in fitting tags, the PAC is seeking more information on how the company is performing from government, as well as what role third sector and private sector organisations will play in probation to make up for this reduction in supervision.

The vacancy rate for probation officers increased from 14% in 2021 to 21% in 2025. Probation officers are estimated to have been working on average at 118% capacity for several years, though recent findings suggest this figure is likely much higher. The inquiry heard evidence that the Probation Service's culture is built on ‘emotional strain' and 'trauma’.

The PAC is sceptical that HMPPS has a real understanding of how many staff it needs to sufficiently improve performance. The report calls for HMPPS to set out when and how it expects to be able to provide clarity to staff on when their workloads will reduce to acceptable levels.

The PAC was concerned to learn that when evaluating the risk of harm presented by offenders, practitioners only adequately assessed 28% of cases in 2024, compared to 60% of cases in 2018-19. This report calls for the MoJ to set out a clear timeline for when it expects its performance against key metrics to improve.

Chair comment

Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, Chair of the Public Accounts Committee, said:

“The probation service in England and Wales is failing. The endpoint of this failure is demonstrated by our report, which shows the number of prisoners recalled to prison is at an all-time high.

"It was deeply alarming to hear of probation staff working under immense pressure in a seemingly toxic environment, in a culture built on emotional strain and trauma. This not only raises concerns about the toll the overall system is taking on their mental health but the impact it is having on their ability to perform their duties. The public’s safety relies on them doing so.

“Unfortunately, the landscape for probation is not going to become more forgiving for a service which has slipped into decline in recent years, as plans to free up capacity, including with early release schemes, in other parts of the crisis-ridden justice system are likely to increase demand.

"Well-run probation is a must-have, helping those who have served their time find their place back in society. HMPPS accepts that the current picture is unsustainable, but its own planned changes could cause further disruption and place more pressure on overstretched staff. The probation service is already teetering on the brink. Government’s immediate goal must be to avoid making matters worse.”

Thought Piece 5

It’s almost impressive how much spin can be wrapped around numbers this bad. We’re told to feel reassured.

“Investment”
“Transformation”
“Technology”
“Opportunity”

Meanwhile HM Inspectorate of Probation has just reported that less than half of cases are meeting the standard to keep people safe. Less than half. Apparently that’s what “rebuilding the service” looks like now.

• Two thirds staffing.
• SPO shortages.
• AP beds full.
• Pre-release planning collapsing.
• Reset disrupting risk work.
• Early releases dumped on already stretched teams.

But don’t worry, we’ve got AI transcripts and tagging contracts. Because nothing says public protection like a laptop and an ankle bracelet.

The language is the giveaway. “Difficult choices will need to be made.” Translation: 

• cut contact, 
• script supervision, 
• move people through faster and hope nothing blows up.

It’s not reform. It’s rationing. They’re not strengthening probation. They’re shrinking it and calling it innovation. And the real insult? This is all being sold as a success story, while the people actually doing the job are told to clap for 4% and be grateful. If this is what £700 million buys, I’d love to see what underfunding looks like!

• You can’t run public protection on PowerPoint slides and pilots.
• You can’t replace experience with “digital solutions.”
• And you can’t collapse standards to under 50% and still pretend the system is fine.

This isn’t transformation. It’s a slow managed decline with better PR.

Anon

--oo00oo--

Yup, and the following is just cringeworthy bollox:

"While sufficient work to keep people safe was not evident in enough of the cases we inspected, following the region’s inspection in 2024, we also saw strategic progress in strengthening public protection work, improved staff accountability and engagement, and a commitment to building a culture that supported learning and psychological safety."

Riddle me this, Jones: how the fuckity fuck fuck can "sufficient work to keep people safe was not evident" be construed as "strategic progress in strengthening public protection work, improved staff accountability and engagement, and a commitment to building a culture that supported learning and psychological safety."

It's word salad; it's meaningless drivel... it's a sequence of non sequiturs throughout. But t'was always thus in HMI probation reports, with areas/OMU's scoring teen% yet leadership rated as strong. Gotta protect that pension pot (and the gong they promised if you behave).

Anon

--oo00oo--

It’s the classic inspection paradox, isn’t it. “Work to keep people safe not sufficient in most cases”…but somehow also…“strategic progress, strengthened protection, psychological safety, positive culture.”

If this were any other profession, failing in over half of cases would be called what it is:failure. In probation it gets translated into management poetry. Because admitting the obvious, that the service is under-resourced and unsafe, would mean confronting the people who control the budget. So instead we get paragraphs of soft language and “green shoots”. It’s not analysis. It’s cushioning.

When less than half of cases meet the required standard, that isn’t “progress”. That’s a red warning light. But red doesn’t look good in a ministerial briefing, so we get beige.

Anon

--oo00oo--

"It’s not analysis." Fucking too right... Jones' lukewarm fudge would have been dismissed out of hand by a judge.

I know I'm reaching back in time here, bear with me... if such equivocal nonsense had ever been submitted to a court in a full PSR (remember them, peeps?) the judge/magistrate would have had a dickie fit. On one occasion the Crown Court liaison PO told me "the judge asked me to tell you to make your bloody mind up. He's adjourned the case for a week to allow you time to have a good, hard think & re-submit something of value." Those were the days when a report would be read in advance by the sentencing judge and the CCLO quizzed about any discrepancies or outlandish proposals.

I dread to think what passes as a report these days.

Anon

The Inspector Speaks

Sentencing Act January 2026

I was pleased to see the Sentencing Act receive royal asset yesterday evening, together with the government’s reassurance that the reforms are supported by plans to rebuild the Probation Service – including investment of up to £700m over the next three years, increased ability to tag offenders, and new technology aimed at reducing administration, so staff can focus on work that reduces reoffending.

It is positive that the Act will not take effect immediately, giving the Probation Service time to prepare for the incoming changes. However, we know that some measures, including the extension of Suspended Sentence Orders and changes to Remand, will come into force in just two months, while implementation planning continues for more complex changes.

I have spoken recently about my support in principle for many elements of the Act and the opportunity it provides to transform the justice system.

However, I have been clear that there will be challenges in ensuring the gap between probation resource and the requirements of the Act are reconciled, and that difficult choices will need to be made around what to prioritise for maximum impact.

I have also warned that there is a danger of the reforms collapsing public confidence in probation unless they are implemented with great care and thought, and the right investment is made in the service in the short to medium term. Failing to address these point risks setting the service up to fail.

I look forward to continuing to work closely with the Department throughout 2026 to advise on how our inspection findings can inform next steps. In particular, I will be sharing the results of our Dynamic Inspection of Public Protection programme, which publishes its first report next week (29 January), with a focus on what improved probation practice can do to make the public safer and reduce harm to victims.

--oo00oo--

Dynamic Inspection of Public Protection in Kent, Surrey and Sussex

Chief Inspector’s judgement

This review of the Probation Service’s public protection across Kent, Surrey and Sussex revealed that, whilst there had been improvements since our last inspection, concerningly, work to keep people safe met the required standard in less than half the cases inspected for ‘assessment’ and ‘implementation and delivery’. In addition, just over half the cases met this standard for case ‘planning’ and ‘reviewing’.

The region’s public protection work had been made more challenging by large-scale national changes in response to prison overpopulation. We found that more support was needed for staff managing complex cases, particularly those involving domestic abuse, and work needed to be done to ensure consistency across all cases.

A primary concern was a lack of quality information sharing of the risks posed by individuals on probation, with probation service and police colleagues highlighting the challenges faced by both organisations to balance public protection with proportionate, compliant information sharing. We were encouraged to see work underway and resource allocated to strengthen relationships. However, there remained no centrally driven directive on what should be shared. This was a long-standing issue which continued to undermine the region’s ability to understand fully the risk posed by those they supervised. A national strategic approach to ensure consistency and compliance from both probation and partners was required to facilitate effective public protection work.

The region was affected by ongoing workforce challenges, with understaffing at both probation officer and senior probation officer grades at the time of the inspection. This inevitably affected capacity to manage demanding caseloads and risk to the public. Constraints including proximity to London, associated high costs of living, lengthy vetting procedures and limited autonomy in recruitment continued to compound these workforce pressures.

In response, the region had introduced a range of innovative strategies to optimise resources, including the use of technology and artificial intelligence, and was working to address training gaps to improve the quality of case management, despite limited resources.

While sufficient work to keep people safe was not evident in enough of the cases we inspected, following the region’s inspection in 2024, we also saw strategic progress in strengthening public protection work, improved staff accountability and engagement, and a commitment to building a culture that supported learning and psychological safety.

--oo00oo--

Inspection commentary (highlights)

Case inspections highlighted that, for both assessment and implementation and delivery, less than half the cases met the required standard to keep people safe. Planning and reviewing met the required standard in just over half the cases. There were indicators that the sufficiency of work to keep people safe was on an upward trajectory in Kent, Surrey and Sussex across all the above areas. Practitioners were completing meaningful home visits and speaking to the families and support networks of people on probation where appropriate to improve risk management. MAPPA cases (multi-agency public protection arrangements) were also managed effectively. Planning for restrictions and monitoring was generally stronger than planning for interventions and programmes to address risk. Restrictions were consistently included in plans and compliance arrangements were clear, although there was less detail on interventions that would take place to address attitudes and behaviour.

Large-scale national change and responses to prison over-population, as well as delays in sentencing, had a destabilising effect on people on probation, making public protection work in Kent, Surrey and Sussex more challenging. Those sentenced and released on the day from court, due to time served on remand, meant pre-release planning could not be delivered in a meaningful way. The increase in people on probation due to early release from custody schemes also affected the time available to set services up to meet their needs and manage their risks. Short recall periods were at risk of disrupting continuity and partner agency involvement, often leaving probation practitioners as the only consistent presence throughout the sentence.

Although Probation Reset arrangements were outside the region’s control, they had a detrimental impact on public protection work. Planned service delivery including challenging conversations or interventions were often disrupted by reset, a concern that was most pronounced in complex domestic abuse cases. Regional leaders were implementing a model to transfer all reset cases to a dedicated hub, though this process was still being refined and audited. ‘Quick guides’ outlined eligibility criteria and checklists for pre-reset tasks, with guidance focused mainly on recording and concluding processes. However, casework inspections highlighted varied and inconsistent practices in which victim and risk information was prioritised at transfer, creating a sense of instability and lack of coherence. Reset hubs were in the early stages of implementation, with communication and monitoring mechanisms already in place, though their intended effect on consistency had not yet been fully realised.

Challenges faced in managing risk to the public were compounded by long-standing staffing challenges, influenced by proximity to London and the associated high cost of living. Since the previous inspection, the percentage of qualified probation officers in post had declined, with current staffing at approximately two-thirds of the target level. There was also understaffing of senior probation officers by over 10 per cent. This inevitably affected capacity to manage demanding caseloads. The region was actively implementing measures within its control to optimise resources, such as a focus on the retention of PQiPs, where significant numbers were resigning or withdrawing. However, additional constraints, such as vetting processes and limited autonomy in recruitment, continued to complicate efforts to address these workforce pressures.

In response to continuing staffing pressures, the region had introduced a range of innovative and accountable strategies to optimise resources. These included the use of technology, artificial intelligence, and the See the Way Forward approach, which streamlined complex or duplicate processes. Sometimes tasks were reallocated, to free practitioners’ time for meaningful work, including activities that promoted public protection. The region sought to identify gaps in training by conducting training needs analyses and exploring new ways to improve this activity. The region introduced a range of activities to strengthen staff capability and support informal learning. Examples included deploying quality development officers (QDOs) to provide specialist guidance and development in key areas and implementing pod structures to promote informal learning and peer-to-peer knowledge sharing. Technology had been particularly effective, offering practitioners practical support and reassurance that solutions were being developed to alleviate workload pressures. The region was proactive in engaging in trials from central HMPPS, designed to improve the recording and accessibility of information for practitioners.

Capacity issues with APs were identified in both weeks of the inspection, compounded by lack of available bed spaces, transfers, co-working arrangements, and contingency measures that were not always effective. The region was concerned about this issue and had pursued conversations with national AP colleagues, which they felt had reached a conclusion but with no resolution. People on probation posing the highest risk of serious harm in Kent, Surrey and Sussex were often refused an AP bed due to capacity issues or placed throughout the country. This contradicted public protection principles of developing stability through support networks and resettlement.

Thought Piece 4

“Meaningful engagement” isn’t complicated or mystical. It’s not an app, a script or an AI transcript.

It’s time.

It’s sitting across from someone without a screen between you and actually listening.

It’s knowing their history because you’ve supervised them for months, not just skimmed a case note five minutes before the appointment.

It’s noticing when something feels off before it shows up on a risk tool.

It’s being able to challenge them honestly because there’s enough trust for them not to shut down or walk out.

It’s the conversations that don’t fit neatly into drop-down boxes. The bits that never make it onto a dashboard but are exactly where change happens.

It’s also professional judgement. Making decisions based on experience and instinct as well as policy. Having the space to think, not just process.

When I started, engagement meant relationships. Now it too often means logging a contact, updating different systems and proving you spoke to someone for 30 minutes.

That’s not engagement. That’s admin with a pulse.

Real engagement takes continuity, time and trust. Three things the current model systematically squeezes out.

So when management talk about “meaningful engagement”, most of us just hear another slogan for “do more with less”.

Because you can’t build trust at speed, and you certainly can’t automate it.

Anon

Be A Probation Officer

The Role

Join a modern, target-driven organisation where your primary responsibilities will include

• Completing housing referrals longer than most Russian novels
• Explaining to five agencies why nothing is your responsibility but somehow still yours
• Managing prison releases planned approximately six minutes in advance
• Assessing “risk” using different IT systems that don’t talk to each other
• Recording everything multiple times in slightly different formats
• Feeding the systems first and seeing people if time allows
• Delivering rehabilitation primarily through keyboards, drop-down menus and duplicate case notes
• Absorbing the consequences of every upstream policy failure while being told this is “innovation”

Actual face-to-face work with people will be available occasionally, subject to admin demand.

What We’re Looking For

We welcome applicants who:

• Care deeply about people (this will be gently trained out of you)
• Can tolerate high workload and low trust
• Are comfortable having professional judgement replaced by templates
• Accept that experience is optional but compliance is essential
• View burnout as a personal development opportunity
• Plan to leave within 2–3 years for a better paid job elsewhere

Long-serving staff also welcome, while stocks last.

Pay & Rewards

Enjoy:

• A decade of pay “progression” worth roughly 7–10% against an 80%+ rise in living costs
• Settlements consistently lower than comparable public sector roles
• Occasional £20 vouchers as recognition for managing life-threatening risk
• A generous 4% offer described repeatedly as “beyond remit”

Retention not guaranteed.

Career Development

• Watch newly qualified colleagues leave for police, prisons or literally anything else
• Take on their caseload
• Repeat

Our Vision

To transform probation into a streamlined, efficient throughput service where:

• Process replaces judgement
• Churn replaces experience
• Surveillance replaces support
• And “capacity” replaces care

Apply now

Because if you wanted to actually work with people, you probably should have been a nurse, teacher or social worker.

Probation Service. Keeping the spreadsheets safe since 2010

Anon

Thought Piece 3

When there was or still is a crisis in APs because of bedspace issues and capacity, the community probation officer is then expected to administer a tedious crapshoot of housing referrals- the CAS-3 being War and Peace and the AP one following close behind with a Duty to Refer and then a CRS referral to Single Homeless Project etc. 

Since when did probation become an annex of Right Move and Purple Bricks? I haven't got time or energy to write out form after form after form to cover myself in terms of contingencies because there are too many releases and not enough bed spaces and only certain tiers of offender get priority for those spaces. Where is the planning for all this? Where is the contingency? Where are the temporary APs to deal with the increase? Where is the extra funding? Where is the accountability? It's a complete farce. I don't blame the AP or CAS-3 system- they must be beleaguered, but why put them in that position? 

Probation in the community is a miserable dumping ground for the ill-thought out policies that favour prisons that are in no great shakes themselves. We are sullied with this lack of professional respect and are a clearing house for failure of will, leadership, joined-up thinking and a lack of planning. Yes, the prisons need to reduce capacity. But if you don't just warehouse them in the first place and make sure their needs are identified and addressed rather than wait until they are in the community, we are less likely to have recalls. 

Having an offender off the books of prisons for a few weeks only to be placed back in there is just musical cells and distorts figures.There needs to be proper investment in community probation and for those officers to be given their dignity and professional acumen back and, if necessary, be able to voice concerns before release. It seems the most efficient thing prisons do, is have the POM's name removed on Delius about 5 seconds after they've left the prison gates: Not our problem, matey. Yours now. Ta! Ta! Although... the tapping of that Part A is often not a long way off.

Anon

Thought Piece 2

Rejoice indeed. This is narrative management at its finest.

Strip away the victory laps and what this press release actually says is this: the system was driven to the edge of collapse, and the “solution” is to move the problem somewhere quieter. Prison capacity is stabilised not by fixing demand, prevention or sentencing culture, but by exporting pressure, risk and failure into the community and calling it reform.

Apparently the Sentencing Act now “grips the crisis”. It does, provided you accept that probation is an infinite sponge. Early release. Fixed-term recalls. Expanded tagging. “Tougher” community penalties. All of it only works if probation absorbs more people, more volatility, more scrutiny and more blame, without any meaningful expansion in staffing, pay, autonomy or infrastructure.

We’re told probation is being “backed with £700 million”. Again. As if repetition makes it real. That money isn’t going to retention, workloads or professional judgement. It’s going to tags, contracts, surveillance and tech — things that look reassuring in a press release and don’t argue back. Practitioners remain the cheapest, most expendable component of the system.

The 56-day recall cap is sold as relief. In reality it turns recall into a population-management device rather than a public protection decision. Probation still manages the destabilisation, the rapid re-releases, the risk escalation and the inevitable fallout, while ministers point at the spreadsheet and declare the crisis “under control”.

What’s missing is louder than what’s said. No acknowledgement that probation was already stretched beyond credibility. No mention of record recall rates. No reference to staff safety, attrition or the haemorrhaging of experience. No explanation of how “tougher community punishments” are delivered by a service paid below comparable roles and increasingly designed to function without professional memory.

This isn’t reform. It’s displacement.

The prison crisis has been averted by redefining where the crisis lives and then congratulating yourselves for it. Probation isn’t being backed. It’s being used.

Anon

Rejoice!

Press release

Government action to avert summer prison disaster

The prison system would have collapsed entirely by summer if not for the Government’s decisive action to keep the public safe, new analysis has revealed.

• Government action finally puts jails on a sustainable footing, projections show
• Jails would have fully run out of space by June if Government had not acted to keep public safe.
• Prison crisis will be ended through sentencing reforms and largest prison expansion since Victorian era.

Annual capacity statement published to increase transparency, part of Plan for Change.

Published today (29 January), new projections show that without the Government’s Sentencing Act – which received Royal Assent last week – the country would have completely run out of prison places as early as June this year.

This Government’s decisive action has safeguarded the police, courts, and wider criminal justice system, and avoided a potentially catastrophic breakdown of law and border.

Under the last Government, prisons were regularly run red-hot at 99% capacity, with police chiefs warning that they would need to pause “non-priority” arrests.

Without action, the police would have been unable to make arrests, and courts would have been unable to send dangerous offenders to jails.

The last government added only 500 places to the prison estate in 14 years, but this Government will never accept putting public safety at risk.

That is why alongside sentencing reforms, it is pressing ahead with the biggest jail expansion programme since the Victorian era – delivering 14,000 extra prison places by 2031 with 2,900 already built.

Deputy Prime Minister, David Lammy, said:

These figures are a stark reminder of the ticking time-bomb we inherited in our prison system, brought on by a legacy of neglect, with only 500 places added to the estate in 14 years.

We have moved at speed to fix this and make our streets safer, as part of our Plan for Change. We’re overhauling sentencing and building thousands of prison places fast to protect the public and make sure there is always a cell for dangerous criminals.

The prison estate has operated at over 95% occupancy for more than twelve years. At one point in 2024, fewer than 100 spaces remained in the adult male estate.

Now, projections set out in the Government’s Annual Prison Capacity statement published today, show that without further action the situation would again become critical by March with demand for prison places fully exceeding supply within six months. This is despite the rapid rate at which jail spaces are currently being built.

The Sentencing Act will grip this crisis, making sure future governments always have the prison places needed to keep people safe. This will keep dangerous criminals locked up, while bringing in tough new punishments that cut crime. To keep the public safe, more criminals will be tagged than ever before, and the probation service will be backed with £700 million extra funding.   

The Act will also make changes to the recall system, with offenders who breach the conditions of their licence returned to prison for a set 56 days. This will cut the number of prisoners waiting for a Parole Board decision after being returned to custody for often minor infractions and give the Probation Service more time to prepare for a release. The most serious and violent offenders will be excluded from this change, who will only be released after they are considered by the Parole Board.

The prison population is expected to rise significantly throughout this Parliament, at around 3,000 a year without intervention, due to continued growth in police charging and prosecutions, increased court activity and longer sentence lengths.

The combination of changes to sentencing, which will slow the projected rise in the prison population by 7,500 by 2028, with £7 billion investment adding thousands of extra prison places over the next five years, will put an end to the chronic crises of the last 15 years and enable our prisons to be managed effectively with public safety the top priority.

The Government is committed to greater transparency around how prison places are managed, publishing the first Prison Capacity Annual Statement in 2024. The Sentencing Act now makes this an annual statutory requirement, setting the standard for future governments.

Background

The Government has committed up to £7 billion over the next five years to deliver 14,000 new prison places by 2031. Since July 2024, 2,900 places have been delivered, including the new HMP Millsike in Yorkshire.

There are also more than 5000 places currently under construction. Meanwhile, around 500 more prison places are undergoing maintenance work compared to this time last year.
The full annual statement is available at Annual Statement on Prison Capacity: 2025 - GOV.UK

Thought Piece

We're just a dumping ground for the prison service. The beleaguered cap doffers. The national guidelines only favour the prison especially for releases. No push back allowed from community probation. How dare we have concerns from the houses of staff shaggers of offenders (weekly convictions), spice deliveries and the illicit EE shops of illegal mobile phones. So much so that we were not rated by the MOJ, despite the gaslighting, £50 vouchers (rarely) and placating about how valued we are. We literally have to beg for a pay rise, but the prisons don't. That kind of tells you where the political agenda is. Oh, but community probation, you get on with reducing the prison population with zero investment, such as proper ETE intervention. 

We're just the poor stepchild of the MOJ. "An extraordinary job done by someone like you" but paid lip service to our supposed relevance. We're all now registered POs, but have less and less autonomy and respect and you wonder why people are disgruntled? Value comes from your own zeal and motivation but it also comes from being paid properly in a dignified manner that doesn't look protracted and undignified. They really don't care about us, other than to dump their warehoused offenders for the real work to commence. But we barely have any investment in the community to be effective. This is all by design. Circus, monkeys, fatigue. 

Stop making criminal justice policy by placating people who are too dim to know what a minimum tariff is. Social media is awash with stupid people, jerking knees and foaming at the mouth with a distastefully informed racism and xenophobia wherever they see someone convicted of a crime. It's why prisons have primacy.

Anon