Sunday 10 May 2020

We Are Where We Are?

I saw this yesterday and it struck a chord with me:-

I sometimes wonder what happens to people. There's a raft of folks who I just cannot fathom. I have a life outside of probation. I always did have, it's just more outside than otherwise now. Some aspects of who I am are fixed while other elements are flexible and I believe they are directly related to aspects of being a person who makes the effort to be a half-decent human being.

Language, honesty, integrity & courage are essential elements that remain with me wherever I am. Writing PSRs, being a court duty officer (mags & crown) and working with sex offenders were the keystones of my probation career.

I cannot understand managerialism, JFDI, it is what it is. I cannot comprehend what it is that makes people feel so good they surrender their integrity. I cannot even begin to get my head around lying.

As far as I could tell from 20+ years' graft, sex offenders & DV perpetrators lived in a fantasy world built on lies & self-deception. It was never their fault, never their responsibility, they were framed, set-up, slighted, seduced, pushed too far, but they could also be charismatic, believable & full of bon homie - until confronted with the dissonance of their situation.

And that is what I see with Grayling, Johnson &, to be fair, most politicians.

Currently they seem to be living in a world where they're managing a fantasy pandemic - one where there's enough PPE, everyone's prepared, the lockdown was timed to perfection, etc etc. Just watch their responses in the briefings when they are challenged with the reality of the situation - Raab, Hancock, Gove, Jenrick have all snapped, snarled & snipped at the person asking the question.

"So how did you get to the child pornography site?"
"So why did you punch your partner in the kidneys?"


--oo00oo--

It seems to me to link nicely with the response from regular reader 'Getafix to last Tuesday's blog post 'A Defining Moment', which of course was itself a reader's contribution:-

I read today's post several times when it appeared as a comment yesterday. To me it not only illustrates the scale and journey of the probation service over time, but also its decline. The Social Work ethos was the foundation stone of the probation service. It's removal was not only irresponsible, it was an act of political sabotage. It allowed probation to become a tool of the state. A service that could be shaped and manipulated in any way that suited the political ideology and Government agendas of the day.

'Prison Works', Tough On Crime, Tough On The Causes Of Crime, were great mantras from polititions like Leon Britton and Michael Howard, but they had little to do with the advancement of our justice services, they were slogans to bolster public support for electoral purposes. They worked, but they badly damaged probation no longer supported by its social work foundations.

We've had years of debate and discussion on the destructive nature and the folly of TR.
TR would never have been possible if probation had still been underpinned by its social work foundations. I really do think the value of the social Work approach within our Criminal justice system is becoming more understood in today's world once again. Police and even prisons are adopting far more of a social work approach then they ever have before. The wheel will be reinvented, but it will be a slow process. There's small pockets reappearing in specific areas now, but their small and very specific. But as its said, 'The longest journey starts with the first step'.

'Getafix followed this up the following day:-

I'm someone who completely believes that probation should be based on a social work ethos. I've had some difficulties this week understanding some of the comments that's been made. I understand that others don't favour the social Work ethos, and I don't dismiss that point of view. Yet I struggle to understand why favouring a social work ethos indicates any particular political view point. Why isn't it be seen as apolitical? A philosophical and pragmatic approach underpinning a service, with no political colour as a pragmatic method to fulfil its remit? Indeed, did the removal of the Social Work requirement in 1997 move probation from a left wing to a right wing organisation? If the social Work ethos belongs to the left, then its removal must surely cede possession to the right? Why does social work define anyone's political identity?

It's a coincidence that Jersey has been mentioned on the blog today, because reading over the last few days to try and understand more why favouring a social work ethos in probation could be seen as a demonstration of political allegiance I stumbled on a research paper from a few year ago relating to probation services on Jersey. It didn't answer my questions, but I found it an interesting and informative read non the less. Maybe other might too.

--oo00oo--

I'll have a layman's stab from deep inside my kevlar cocoon.

1. Did the removal of the Social Work requirement in 1997 move probation from a left wing to a right wing organisation? Yes. More accurately, it anchored the moves that had already taken place.

2. If the social Work ethos belongs to the left, then its removal must surely cede possession to the right? Yes. Its now 'owned' in every sense by the MoJ/HMPPS, a control-and-command led profit-oriented structure.

3. Why does social work define anyone's political identity? For myself, its tied up with whether we regard people as a commodity to be exploited or as part of the social fabric, to be cherished. The 'right' embraces control & command, monetisation, exploitation, profiteering - 'they know the price of everything but the value of nothing'. The 'left' tends towards the nurturing, caring & sharing of peoples' experiences, cultures & lives, regardless as to whether its the fruits or the burdens that are being shared.

There you go, Bamber, there's my starter for ten.

--oo00oo--

Firstly, I wholeheartedly agree with 'Getafix that a social work ethos should be seen as apolitical and it frustrates me how many people on this blog seem to assume that a left wing political preference should be a prerequisite for the job.

As for above, they've tried to set out their position as if commentating from an objective point of view, but clearly the fact they have chosen negative labels for the right and positive labels for the left reveals their own bias.

Ultimately, the right is defined by valuing the individual over the collective. But how is that at odds with the social work/probation value of believing that everybody is capable of change? The right is more likely to believe in the capacity of individuals to change than the left.

--oo00oo--

No, revisionista above, you play with my words. I don't need or want your agreement, but you cannot re-present my piece as something it isn't. I set out *my* position. And there it is in all its simplicity. No attempt to observe from any point of view other than my own, hence I start with "For myself..."

Another right-wing trait I forgot to mention... the readiness to revise history, to remodel the facts to suit the narrative. The coronavirus crisis is a case in point - not enough PPE in stock, delays in ordering it, when it finally arrives its shoddy-as-shit, then they issue out-of-date PPE & refuse to release the test data that proves whether or not the PPE is fit for purpose. Dates on gowns might not be a problem, granted, but filters on medical grade masks might just be a critical issue. I just hope my kevlar cocoon is in-date...

--oo00oo--

That research article from the British Journal of Social Work and referred to by 'Getafix can be found here and I've selected the following:-


Moving Away from Social Work and Half Way Back Again: New Research on Skills in Probation


Abstract

Research on social work in the criminal justice system was well represented in the social work literature until the 1990s. Since then, changes in the organisation, training and research base of probation practice, particularly in England and Wales, have all contributed to a separation between probation research and the mainstream social work research literature. However, recent probation research, by focusing on individual practice skills and on the quality of relationships, is producing findings which resonate with traditional social work concerns. The study presented here, based on analysis of videotaped interviews between probation staff and the people they are supervising, shows what skills are used and the effects of skilled supervision. People supervised by more skilled staff were significantly less likely to be reconvicted over a two-year follow-up, and the most effective supervisors combined good relationship skills with a range of ‘structuring’ or change-promoting skills. In effect, this can be regarded as a test of the impact of social work skills used by probation staff and suggests that a closer relationship between mainstream social work research and probation research could be productive for both.

Background

In recent years, probation has moved away from social work both as a subject and as an institutionalised practice towards what is commonly termed community corrections or offender management, and in so doing has taken on a distinctively different identity. It began its life in the philanthropic and charity movements of the nineteenth century and in particular the early social project (Vanstone, 2004). Although, in one way or another, probation has always been involved in the administration and management of particular non-custodial sentences, it has retained distinctive social work characteristics not only through its involvement in adoption, matrimonial and divorce court functions, but also through practice founded on the traditional social work treatment model. In the latter part of the twentieth century, it shed its family court functions and, in its current, modern form, it focuses exclusively on work with those who appear before the criminal courts and who pose significant risk to the public through their offending, standing apart from social work as a criminological project. At least, this is how it appears. In this paper, through reflections on our study of the practice of probation officers in Jersey (Raynor et al., 2014), we examine this phenomenon and attempt to distinguish between the appearance and the reality. In the process, we reappraise the argument that probation should be seen as social work and reflect on how mainstream social work might adapt to accommodate the roles of social workers in criminal justice. We begin with the relevant history.


Discussion: probation as social work?

Studies such as this, which show a connection between the use of appropriate interpersonal skills and better outcomes for service users, are clearly of interest to probation services, and research on skills has now been carried out in several countries (for some examples, see McNeill et al., 2010). One purpose of this article is to suggest that this kind of research also has implications for mainstream social work, and for the relationship between probation work and the wider social work enterprise. Some of the skills observed in our study, such as relationship skills, are clearly part of the skills repertoire traditionally valued and taught in social work. Probation officers in Jersey, unlike most in England and Wales, are normally qualified in social work; the same is true in other jurisdictions, notably Scotland, where social work in criminal justice is professionally and organisationally a branch of social work. However, good outcomes in our study are also connected with the use of ‘structuring’ skills to facilitate change and to develop new thinking and behaviour. The results are consistent with the idea that relationship skills are a necessary condition for positive influence in individual work, but may not on their own be sufficient to bring about change in problematic attitudes or behaviour. This kind of change often seems to require more structured forms of learning.

Studies of the impact and outcome of professional intervention have been central to improvements in the effectiveness of probation work in the last two decades. Arguably, this has been a less consistent emphasis in broader social work research. Reasons for this include the fact that probation work lends itself to the use of reconviction rates as a (relatively) straightforward outcome measure, since the purposes of probation usually include a reduction in offending, in the interests of both the service user and the wider community. Probation can of course have other valid purposes, such as reintegration into the community, resettlement and the pursuit of a wide variety of individualised forward-looking intermediate goals in particular cases, but most of the time reconviction can be used as a rough-and-ready proxy measure which is congruent with the societal purpose of probation services. Other sectors of social work have more diverse or less standardised goals and more ingenuity may be needed to identify appropriate outcome measures. However, the effort may prove worthwhile. Social work education is under attack both politically and from other professional sectors: Michael Gove, the responsible Minister and a leading figure on the right wing of the current ruling coalition, argues that, if trainee social workers are taught that their service users are ‘disempowered by society’, this makes them likely to explain away and excuse problematic behaviour rather than trying to change it (Gove, 2013). Martin Narey makes rather similar points from a more professional and less politicised point of view in his report on the preparation of social workers for child and family work (Narey, 2014). Essentially, the argument is that commitment to an anti-oppressive stance makes it difficult for inexperienced social workers to challenge problematic behaviour. From such a perspective, probation work may seem too controlling or coercive to be part of an empowering vision of social work. However, such a view, if it exists, rests on a fundamental misunderstanding.

One former Chief Probation Officer with whom both authors worked used to define his job as ‘helping offenders to help themselves to stop offending’ (Sutton, 1996). This has more to do with empowerment than oppression: even if people are not responsible for the problems they face, improvement is likely to require some action on their part. Even cognitive–behavioural offending behaviour programmes, which worried some practitioners who saw them as a form of coercive behaviour modification, are better understood as a way of facilitating change through social learning (Raynor and Vanstone, 1997). The successful probation staff in our study helped their clients by eliciting co-operation and engaging collaborative effort, not by one-sided authoritarianism. This is entirely consistent with our experience of effective probation over many years. Mainstream social work might benefit from a more consistent focus on outcomes, and from probation's experience of trying to use evidence from outcome studies to develop and improve practice. Social work's defence against Gove's attack has so far concentrated on exposing his ideological assumptions and political motivation (for an example, see Social Work Action Network, 2014), but more focus on evidence of positive outcomes would also help to add weight to the argument. In the last century, the education and training of most social workers included some coverage of crime and of social work in criminal justice, but this is less prevalent in the social work degree courses offered since 2003.

Qualitative research alone will not find it easy to provide evidence of effectiveness. As a recent discussion of policy-related research pointed out:

Qualitative research is often advocated as the best way to capture the complexity of social phenomena, but even rich case studies full of insight about how things happen are very limited in answering ‘why’ questions without the systematic comparison of cases that would enable us to understand causation, which is essential to policy intervention (Blackman, 2013, p. 334).

In other words, without qualitative research, there is not much social science; without measurement and comparison, there is not much social science. In our study of skills and outcomes, we have used both approaches, and the results could not have been obtained without doing so.

Finally, we would suggest that probation work itself could benefit from closer integration (or reintegration) with the wider social work profession. This is hardly innovative: any study of the early history of social work will find plenty of examples of work concerned with what was usually called juvenile delinquency (for some examples, see Raynor and Robinson, 2009). Probation in England and Wales is smaller than other welfare institutions and, since coming under the direct control of the Home Office in 2001, it has been something of a political football. Politicians preoccupied with a need to appear tough have obstructed development and made probation more punitive. The current government is in the process of implementing a wholesale privatisation programme (Ministry of Justice, 2013) which virtually all informed commentators believe will make matters worse. Social work may feel itself threatened but has not (yet) faced anything like this. Although several commentators have written about difficulties in maintaining traditional social work commitments and values in the modern social and political environment (e.g. Parton, 1994, 2003), social work has not experienced, as probation has, a political campaign to substitute punishment for welfare (Raynor, 2012). Probation might benefit, as in Scotland, from being seen and defended as part of a wider social work movement for social progress and social justice, which in our view is what it should be. However, this argument strays well beyond the scope of this paper. At least we hope to contribute to a more substantial representation and appreciation of criminal justice social work in the mainstream social work literature.

84 comments:

  1. While probation remains joined with the prison service and owned by the civil service, there will be no place for social work within probation. This means no social work ethos, no return to social work training, and no organisational representation and appreciation of criminal justice social work in the mainstream social work literature.

    ReplyDelete
  2. TR was an Ideological decision, wholly designed to shrink the state and marketise another public service.
    However, the rethoric used to sell it to Parliament and the nation extolled the value of the Social Work ethos.
    End to end supervision, through the gate, housing, training and employment, access to addiction and mental health services, mentors, assistance from more third sector organisations and no more only £46 in your pocket.
    The private sector would come in to innovate and develop new ways to support prison leavers, and lead them away from offending.
    The rethoric belied the real objectives of course, but dosen't the rethoric also acknowledge (and identify) a need for more of a social work ethos, not only in the probation service, but within the CJS as a whole?

    'Getafix

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. End to end supervision was a follow on the End to end offender management. The Carter Report introduced the concept and paved the way for probation trusts, alongside the NOMS ‘probation is an enforcement agency’ rhetoric. At that point is was made very clear that a social work ethos had no place, not only not in the probation service, but within the CJS as a whole.

      Delete
    2. The Carter Report was considered to have fundamental flaws by the right wing think tank Policy Exchange.

      Ref: Carter but Smarter.

      Delete
    3. Policy Exchange was an advocate of TR.

      Delete
    4. But not in the way Carter proposed.

      Delete
  3. Various news websites including MSN:-

    Russia on Sunday accused the United States of downplaying the Soviet Union's role in defeating Nazi Germany in World War II, with Moscow seeking "a serious conversation" on the matter with US counterparts.

    "We are extremely indignant at the attempt to distort the effect... of our country's decisive contribution," Russia's foreign affairs ministry said in a statement.

    A White House statement on Facebook this week, to mark the 75th anniversary of VE Day, only mentioned the United States and Britain as victors over the Nazis

    "American officials have neither the courage nor the will to pay homage to the undeniable role and the huge death toll suffered by the Red Army and the Soviet people in the name of all humanity," the Russian statement continued.

    Calling the US statement "particularly petty," Moscow urged Washington not to make the memory of 1945 "a new problem for bilateral relations, which are already going through a difficult time".

    The history of World War II is a very sensitive one in post-Soviet Russia which is seeking to rebuild its prestige and power under President Vladimir Putin.

    There were some 27 million deaths on the Soviet side during the war.

    Moscow also accuses Western Europe, Poland and Ukraine of minimising its role in the conflict.

    Russia marked the 75th anniversary of the end of the war in Europe in more modest fashion than normal on Saturday, due to the coronavirus pandemic, scrapping the normal large-scale military parade which attracts thousands of people onto the streets.

    ReplyDelete
  4. BBC.

    A prison watchdog barred from healthcare meetings said it was "very concerned" and had "a right to attend".

    The Independent Monitoring Board (IMB) at HMP Wayland in Norfolk claims it has been "prevented" from attending meetings on health service provision.

    The board raised the issue in its annual report and said it planned to escalate its concerns.

    The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) said it had been excluded because "commercially sensitive" matters were discussed.

    In its report, the IMB said the decision to ban it from the quarterly meetings followed a change in healthcare provider at the 1,000-capacity men’s prison, near Thetford.

    The report said: "It is to be regretted that since the change of healthcare provider, the IMB has been excluded from attending healthcare meetings, in contravention of our right to attend any meetings.

    "Consequently, it has been difficult to monitor healthcare as closely as we should like and to get accurate healthcare statistics."

    'Official Secrets Act'

    IMBs comprise independent, unpaid volunteers who monitor day-to-day life at prisons to ensure proper standards of care and decency are maintained.

    Wayland IMB chairman Mike Gander told the BBC: "We are very concerned at our exclusion and we are thinking of taking this to a high level within Her Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service."

    He said the IMB only wanted to attend the meetings as observers.

    He questioned the cited concerns over "commercial sensitivity", claiming a number of providers were present at the meetings - which cover health provision at three Norfolk prisons - meaning they were unlikely to disclose sensitive information in front of other companies.

    In addition, he said, IMB members were required to sign the Official Secrets Act, meaning they would not share such information, even if it was raised.

    The BBC asked the MoJ whether the IMB had a right to attend, and whether it accepted monitoring healthcare and having accurate healthcare statistics was an important part of the IMB’s role.

    The MoJ has yet to respond in detail, but did say the IMB should have access to minutes of healthcare meetings and relevant healthcare data.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Reckless Boris Johnson has given 12 hours notice to “those that can’t work from home”.

    How many NPS and CRC managers will this morning be deciding probation workers “can’t work from home”?

    ReplyDelete
  6. "we are where we are"? Does anyone have a fucking clue as to ***where*** that is!

    "We are going to be treating people like adults" - Raab

    - stay alert
    - go to work
    - "We are NOT moving to a stage where we say households can mix inside the home. That advice is not changing."
    - Golf allowed to resume in England
    - "You can drive as far as you want to, for example to walk in a park or particular area you're fond of"...
    - ... unless that's in Scotland or Wales or Northern Ireland
    - people arriving into the country will have to go into quarantine for 14 days to prevent Covid-19 being brought in from overseas...
    - ... unless you travel from France or Eire


    Seems there might be a new epidemic:

    Sudden confusion (delirium) can have many different causes. Get medical help immediately if someone suddenly becomes confused (delirious).

    How to tell if someone is confused. If a person is confused, they may:

    * not be able to think or speak clearly or quickly
    * not know where they are (feel disorientated)
    * struggle to pay attention or remember things

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh, hang on, Raab now says:

      - Use common sense to see loved ones outdoors

      - "So just to be absolutely clear, people cannot mix within the homes… and that advice is not changing."

      - People in England CAN "meet up with other people" outside their household as long as they are outside and stay 2m apart

      - - All outdoor sport must be done alone or within a household group and that includes golf.

      - as long as you go out of home, for the park, for exercise, whatever it may be, you can go with members of your own household.

      Delete
    2. Telegraph:

      "Germany’s coronavirus reproduction rate – the crucial measure which shows how widely the virus is spreading in the community – has risen to 1.1, giving rise to fears that a second wave of infections may be imminent. The findings come just days after the country begun the first phase of relaxing its coronavirus lockdown measures... Germany has been lauded internationally for its coordinated response to the virus and its corresponding low death rate, with 7,549 having fallen victim to the disease there until Saturday, compared with 31,587 in the UK, which has a much smaller population."

      Brace Yourselves... for more lies & Tory spin.

      Top 5 of new cases reported yesterday:

      US - 21,000 - Trump
      Russia - 11,00 - Putin
      Brazil - 7,000 - Bolsonaro
      India - 4,500 - Modhi
      UK - 4,000 - Johnson

      other figures include:

      Germany - 550
      France - 300
      Italy - 800
      New Zealand - 2
      South Korea - 34

      Delete
    3. The virus origin has been traced to bats in a Chinese market.
      Its survival and spread depends on headless chickens in London.

      Delete
  7. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/11/ministry-justice-abandons-soft-justice-plan-free-prisoners-early/amp/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Telegraph 8 May 2020 - "Boris Johnson facing Commons rebellion over 'soft justice' plans to let criminals out of prison early... Robert Buckland, the Justice secretary, is spending this weekend trying to quell the rebellion which could be a severe embarrassment"

      Telegraph 11 May 2020 - "Boris Johnson has ditched soft justice plans to let criminals out of prison six months before the halfway point in their sentences after the threat of a backbench rebellion... Robert Buckland, the Justice Secretary, decided at the weekend to abandon plans that would have let offenders sentenced to fewer than four years in prison to be released 45 days earlier than planned."

      Delete
    2. The Guardian 6 May 2020 - "The Ministry of Justice announced on 4 April that up to 4,000 prisoners who were within two months of their release date and had passed a risk assessment would be released.

      As at 28 April, 200 prisoners had been approved for early temporary release with a further 300 being considered, according to information provided to the Howard League for Penal Reform and the Prison Reform Trust following a threat of legal action.
      Advertisement

      On 27 April, ministers confirmed that only 33 prisoners had been released – including pregnant prisoners and inmates in mother and baby units, meaning fewer than 20 had been freed under the temporary early release scheme.

      The Ministry of Justice said it would not provide an up-to-date figure on the numbers released under the early temporary release scheme. Government lawyers told the charities the scheme had not been abandoned."

      https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/06/prison-reform-bodies-urge-ministers-not-to-ditch-early-release-scheme

      Delete
    3. https://insidetime.org/peers-urge-moj-to-act-on-coronavirus-in-jails/

      In a debate on April 23, peers from across the political spectrum called on minister to increase the number of prisoners granted early release. The Ministry of Justice announced on April 4 that an estimated 4,000 would be released, but three weeks later fewer than 100 had actually been freed.

      Lord German, a Liberal Democrat, called the releases “too slow and too late” to save lives. He said: “I am afraid that the conclusion reached is that, because of a failure of testing, availability of PPE, isolation and social distancing, and the exponential rise in coronavirus cases, our prisons are incubators, pumping the virus and spreading it to the communities both within and outside their walls. For the 17,000 prisoners sharing cells, whether the virus is contracted is truly a terrifying lottery.”

      Lord Naseby, a Conservative peer, pointed to the recommendation which ministers had reportedly received from Public Health England and HM Prison and Probation Service that 15,000 prisoners need to be released.

      He said: “I ask the Minister to take 15,000 as his target figure. He might not quite make it, but so be it. If he can get somewhere near it, every one of us in the House of Lords and in the Commons will thank you. We will have done some good for the poor souls who are worried stiff at this moment.”

      Delete
    4. Inside Time 13 Apr 2020 - "The figure was cited by the Prison Governors’ Association (PGA) in evidence to MPs on the Commons Justice Committee. The PGA said that HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) and Public Health England had recommended the number in private submissions to the Government.

      The Ministry of Justice has said it wants to cut the number of prisoners in shared cells in order to slow the spread of the virus. Asked by MPs how many prisoners would need to be released to end cell-sharing, Jo Farrar, chief executive of HMPPS, said that the figure was between 10,000 and 15,000 based on the current number of cells."


      WE FOLLOW THE SCIENCE

      Delete
    5. https://prison-governors-association.org.uk/prison-governors-association-pga-evidence-to-justice-committee-on-covid-19/

      Last week, HMPPS published guidance in line with instructions from Government on cohorting prisoners to delay the spread of the virus. These included creating three distinct units for groups of prisoners.

      7-Day Isolation Unit – This unit will house those prisoners presenting with the symptoms of the virus.
      14-Day Isolation Unit – This unit will house those prisoners not displaying symptoms but who may have been exposed and those new into the prison.
      Shielding Unit – This unit will house those extremely vulnerable to the virus who could lose their life if infected.

      The PGA does not disagree with this position, but we have significant concerns in the ability to achieve this if prisons are full and cells remain doubled. Our members have reported to the PGA National Executive Committee that the challenge is immense. They have also reported to us that Public Health England and HMPPS require a reduction of 15,000 prisoners in order to truly safeguard prisoners and staff.

      Delete
    6. http://criminaljusticealliance.org/covid-19-hmpps-says-prisoner-release-is-not-the-only-plan-in-place/

      This week, justice secretary Robert Buckland appeared before the Justice Select Committee again to discuss the Ministry of Justice’s (MoJ) response to COVID-19. Jo Farrar, Chief Executive, HM Prisons and Probation Service and Susan Acland-Hood, Chief Executive, HM Courts and Tribunals Service, were also in attendance. They discussed courts, prisoner release, and resettlement of prison leavers. See some key points below.

      Jo Farrar conceded that 10,000 and 15,000 prisoners would need to be released to ensure one prisoner per cell

      Delete
    7. April 2020 - MoJ: "All actions have been informed by the advice of experts from Public Health England and will be kept under constant review."
      ________________________________________

      https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/bringing-in-the-experts-blame-deflection-and-the-covid-19-crisis/

      The current political emphasis on ‘the experts’ is partly a depoliticisation and blame deflection strategy to render them, instead of the politicians, as the public face of the coronavirus crisis

      Letting others take the stage and assume the position of lightning-rods when blame-laden storm clouds are amassing on the horizon is a political strategy that dates back to Machiavelli’s advice on blame-avoidance behaviours, and probably much further. But the bigger question is really whether ‘the experts’ quite understand the politics of the role they have been cast?

      Delete
    8. BBC - Proposals to release some offenders from prison earlier than planned have been shelved by the government.

      The change was due before the House of Commons on Tuesday where it faced opposition from a number of Tory MPs.

      But a Whitehall source told the BBC it was no longer necessary as the coronavirus outbreak has eased pressure on the prison system with fewer cases going to the courts.

      Delete
  8. It was telling who the slackers are for not turning in today

    ReplyDelete
  9. Jim. U ave lost interest in this blog so r u wanting to hand the reins over? I can start 2mo as chief dictator if u want?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Boom 18.46. Jim is back at 19.06

      Delete
  10. Latest Napo Bulletin 19

    No changes to EDM’s

    As we reported to members in last Thursday’s all members mail out, Napo are insisting that no changes are made by employers to the Exceptional Delivery Models (EDMs) that have been implemented in response to the C-19 Pandemic.

    Discussions have taken place with senior HMPPS leaders following the announcement by the Prime Minister yesterday. HMPPS have confirmed that nothing will change with the EDMs at this point. They will also resist any moves by CRCs to change their EDMs (which have to be signed off by HMPPS) unless there are guarantees about safety. The intention is to use the risk scale that was explained yesterday to frame the Department's recovery plan so that an incremental approach will be taken to any proposed changes and that these will be the subject of consultation with the trades unions. Until then, Napo’s clear advice to members is to continue operating the current duties that you have been undertaking and advise us if you are being pressurised to make changes to these arrangements.

    We have also discussed proposed further guidance on the HMPPS special payments scheme, and have again insisted that the scope of this should be widened to include all staff who are undertaking vital work to protect our communities and to assist and advise service users. We expect that revised guidance may be published around the middle of this week.

    TUC offer online courses

    Following unionlearn’s successful launch in early April of the Lerning @ home campaign, the initiative has now added additional pages of support and advice for reps and learners. The campaign landing page now includes ideas from union learning reps for supporting learners online and links to resources for parents to help children learn at home. There have been over 5,000 visits to the campaign page and many have gone on to take up new learning opportunities. Further new developments are planned in the coming days, these include more new learning and skills webinar sessions, skills assessment tools and bite size learning modules. More details on the Learning @ home campaign activities can be found HERE

    Napo HQ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Boring. Jim this is terrible blogism cutting and pasting all day. I'd rather listen to Hatton or getafix nonsensical blogging. Bring back the analysis

      Delete
    2. Take your choice pal piss off read something else . Great blog Jim tossers welcome your too fair just blank the fool off. The Napo response wants to cling onto this EDM as if it is the current best position for members. I do hope Napo will be reading your blog. The position should be that Napo having consulted all members widely electronically nowdays should be opening up talks on what a model of returns to working practices could look like post the recently adopted tuc stipulations. Napo constantlly appear to stall than lead any initiative . Or perhaps do not have what's required to agitate risk to employers to negotiate some genuine members protection. Napo read weak perhaps pathetic. The are a toothless tiger tit in the past had always delivered outcomes from campaign professionally well run. In this new era for cyber non face to face social distancing meeting which will be risky what use will this professional association be to members . Napo cannot continue to claim to be a union can it not just because if this awful pandemic.

      Delete
    3. What is this incomprehensible rant supposed to mean? You seem to have only a beginner's understanding of the full stop... and almost nothing else. There's a fair amount of this sort of thing in the Probation Service now. I see it daily. Such a shame for this once proud and respected profession.

      Delete
    4. Text speak chaos. Auto spell check and inevitable error. However , I have yet to meet correct good grammar from most staff. Uppety language thus this that and the other. You understood the points but your snobbish stupidity took over. Enough full stops for you? When most get noticed for poor written skills they claim the dyslexia card. Me just bad typing on small key pad.

      Delete
    5. And here we go again. I didn't understand the previous rant, and I don't understand this one. If you feel compelled to express these mental ejaculations in writing, at least take an extra minute to ensure they make sense. Please.

      Delete
  11. Remember the mayor in "Jaws" was so concerned about the economy, he told everyone it was safe to go back in the water?
    Just saying!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think there's a really difficult balance to strike between public health and maintaining the economy.

      The reality is the majority of people who post on here will either be Probation employees or retired (ex-Probation) and so the economic impact isn't as profound. But for the self-employed, for example, they are facing months and possibly years of financial hardship. The same applies to those facing redundancy, the 1100 announced yesterday by P&O being just one of many examples.

      So yes, social distancing must continue and restrictions must be in place BUT those parts of the economy that can be safely reopened must be, to mitigate against long term financial ruin for millions.

      Delete
    2. It IS a difficult path to tread, but it would be easier if you knew exactly where the path was, how narrow, how long and the odds of surviving the walk. While not every risk or variable is known, this utterly irresponsible arrogant & feckless government seems to think they can hide what they know about how treacherous the path is.

      They are egging the public along with jolly slogans & mantras that push the blame firmly onto others' shoulders while thousands are dying.

      Those 'others' are either the scientific advisers, the devolved administrations or the UK public themselves. Never the UK government. Certainly not the ministers. And God Forbid if anyone suggested it was the PM's fault.

      Example 1: The government insists on saying the total number of UK deaths is far below the actual figure. On 11 May 2020 they claimed it was 32,692.

      The ONS data says the death toll at the same point in time was 40,496. The ONS data has been available to the government all along. It simply refuses to use it, in much the same way it hid the care home figures - and thus the shameful, callous death rate - for as long as it possibly could.
      ___________________________________

      Example 2: Public Health England & others told MoJ it needed to release thousands of prisoners in order to manage the spread of the virus, citing figures of either 4,000 or between 10,000 & 15,000.

      The release of prisoners was delayed & delayed, then a handful were released, then a mistake was made, then it was paused - now it will not happen at all.

      The honest approach would have been to say "No. We are not going to release anyone early for party political reasons."
      _____________________

      https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/12/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-passes-40000-official-figures-say

      "The Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday that 35,044 deaths involving Covid-19 were registered in England and Wales up to 9 May. Adding the latest figures for Scotland and Northern Ireland and more up to date fatalities from the four nations , the total official UK death toll now stands at 40,496.

      The figures cement the UK as the worst-affected country in Europe. Italy has recorded 30,739 deaths, Spain 26,744 and France 26,604, according to data collated by Johns Hopkins University (JHU). Germany has recorded 7,661 deaths."
      ___________________________________

      If a trekking company behaved in such a feckless manner they would be sued by everyone injured or killed as a result of such a fraudulent presentation of the real risks, the lack of transparency and the utter lack of giving a fuck about anything or anyone other than themselves.

      Delete
    3. Doughnut lives before economy . An obvious primary but to suggest early return funds makes you another Tory accolyte .

      Delete
    4. Another grammatical catastrophe from our regular correspondent? Maybe wait until you've slept on it before firing these unfathomable sputterings off...

      Delete
    5. Snob alert. You may be on the wrong blog. Your regular attacks on the grammar is not helpful to move the discussions along. Perhaps you might be better off on a different blog where the policing of the written word is welcome. Perhaps your uppity self importance is more at home on a teaching website. Perhaps more likely up your own arse. I think even you would understand this.

      Delete
    6. Anonymous 12:44 said...
      "Doughnut lives before economy . An obvious primary but to suggest early return funds makes you another Tory accolyte ."

      There was no snobbery about my response, though I admit there was some irritation. Anon 12:44's post makes no sense at all. I've just re-read it. It just wastes the readers' time. I don't think we could say it 'moves the discussions along' or indeed that it serves any purpose all here. It's gibberish. I had hoped to encourage the contributor to spend a little more time thinking about what they wished to convey before throwing these things out. If anything, I'm trying to keep the debate meaningful.

      Delete
    7. A reasonable comment and a fair points made which are accepted. It is clear there are some errors but the issues still come through. The key point for me is not the grammar but the intention. The comment was to initiate a view that LIVES come before the economy. This country has billions in reserves and the high taxation and years of austerity have banked a tidy TORY private fund. The billionaire club need less while the country needs those reserves. It might help if we try and keep things positive. I understand language has moved considerably for example starting any sentence with capital A AND was not allowed. It is just the moving of language. The insulting gibberish and ejaculation comments from your accepted anger apply to your own ill conceived response.

      Delete
    8. Whereas terms like 'snob alert', 'uppity self importance' and 'up your own arse' where measured and collected responses entirely intended to enforce positivity?
      Must try harder...

      Delete
    9. Going off again. You mean were not where. Oh a mistake surely not. still read your uppity snobbish self importance bleeding through. Stuck up your own arse still valid when countering your initial abuse. Keep it up you reflect the grade badly.

      Delete
    10. More enraged nonsense. There are loads of on-line courses to improve written communication skills (and plenty of basic anger management material too). Both might be a better way to spend your time than firing off these personalised and expletive-filled (and, yes, grammatically-challenged) offerings. I can provide a link to some resources if that would be helpful?

      Delete
    11. Thank you but I have no anger issues that was your own difficulty. Your offer is better placed with yourself as a starting point. Your grammar is imperfect and there lies your lesson . Perfection is not as important as the point made. Grow up a bit first then come back.

      Delete
    12. Delighted to see you've already come along leaps and bounds with your punctuation. A little bit more care really can pay dividends, can't it? That's job done as far as I'm concerned. Hopefully our little exchange will motivate you to sustain this in the longer-term. Well done.

      Delete
    13. Ok guys - we've all enjoyed a bit of knock-about but let's draw a line under this particular grammatical discourse and move on. Thanks.

      Delete
    14. Quite right JB you hold the decesion on what stays or goes. We don't want every tom dick or Harry marshalling a well managed blog. Besides the were not able to maintain the perfection required feel pity for offenders falling down with that over aimed expectation. Its a blog don't like it then don't read it.

      Delete
    15. You must have some deeper underlying issues. If you are a practitioner cases will not be well served by your doggedness for small minded matters. You appear to make problems than seek to resolve.

      Delete
    16. Probation service full of people who take slapdash approach to their work as result reports are dismissed by judges and parole board as lacking gravity opportunities to offer effective alternatives to custody lost and reasoned arguments for parole release fall on deaf ears i see it all too often and people like you dismiss it as too much trouble unfortunately decent communication is vital part of role and you do yourself no favours by arguing otherwise no doubt you think highly of your practice and im sure you are committed and skilled in other areas but need to reflect more could service users needs be better served.
      There. You see how that reads? These are not small-minded matters by a long chalk. Toodle-pip.

      Delete
    17. Like I had already stated for you uppity anal repetitive tosh. This is you showing off and claiming some higher ground of intellect in standards. You may not realise probation was never full of overly intelligent people in the days past. The latest batch of blondes female and 20 something uni grads are no reference either. The days of a great well written psr sir even is well past the sell by date. Senior managers do not care enough and the work was not adequately protected as a professional status job. There is nothing around that I can see required too much energy oasys needs only the dullest of short speak and it carries across media. Just because you don't like the drop in standards sadly it is the future. Get used to the idea and save upsetting yourself. Oh and cyber bashing others efforts.

      Delete
    18. "You may not realise probation was never full of overly intelligent people in the days past."

      You really are quite offensive and not welcome round here.

      Delete
    19. Old home office po grade were pretty hit and miss Jim . The move away from authoritarian approaches saw some great work in SW values . Alas we are back to disciplinary autocratic styles and you don't have to overly intelligent for that model. It is a fact. Like it or not.

      Delete
  12. Tried to order a home-testing kit. System says they're available. System lets me answer every question. System says it wants me to allow it to verify who I am.

    Then... Message:

    "There is a problem

    It looks like you may not be able to order a home test kit.

    This may be because:

    we could not confirm your identity
    you have already recently ordered a home test kit
    you entered your details incorrectly (try re-entering your details)"

    ReplyDelete
  13. Sky News

    All Wuhan residents will be tested for COVID-19 after a new outbreak occurred in the city where the pandemic started, local authorities said.

    There were six new coronavirus cases over the weekend in the central Chinese city - the first in the whole of Hubei province for 35 days.

    None of the new cases came in from overseas, prompting Wuhan authorities to announce nucleic acid testing of all its residents will happen over 10 days, according to an emergency notice circulated by state-run media outlet The Paper.

    Wuhan, with a population of 11 million, was placed on a strict lockdown on 23 January but it was lifted on 8 April and, until the weekend, there had been no new cases since.

    Nucleic testing detects the virus' genetic code and can be more effective at picking up the virus, especially in the early stages, than the more easily carried out immune response tests.

    Older people, densely populated communities and areas which are visited by a lot of people will be prioritised, the notice said.

    "We must profoundly realise that decisive achievements do not mean decisive victory," Wang Zhonglin, a member of Hubei Province's standing committee, told the Changjiang Daily.

    "And that downgrading the emergency response does not mean downgrading defence.

    "We must not be careless, paralysed and lax."

    The city had been slowly getting back to normal after the 76-day lockdown, with people allowed outside their homes but many businesses remain closed.

    China's government will not be pleased with the new cases as Wuhan had been held up as a shining example to the world for stopping the virus' spread within the city where it started.

    State media reported that Zhang Yuxin, the chief official in Wuhan's Dongxihu district, was removed from his post "for failures in epidemic prevention and control work at the residential compound" where the new cases were.

    Any further infections found by testing will raise serious questions over the transparency and accuracy of the city's previous numbers.

    Chinese officials are already facing accusations of covering up the severity of the virus in the early stages.

    A further 12 new cases in the city of Shulan in China's northeast Jilin province were recorded on Sunday, prompting it to be placed under "wartime control mode", its head of state said.

    South Korea has also experienced a new outbreak after 101 new cases have been linked to one man who visited several nightclubs in Seoul last Saturday.

    Bars and clubs across the South Korean capital have now been closed over fears of a second spike in infections.


    ReplyDelete
  14. Boris Johnson's plans to lift the coronavirus lockdown "will not ensure the suppression of the epidemic", a former director at the World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned.

    Professor Anthony Costello, a member of the independent Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) committee, accused the government of repeating its early mistakes in dealing with the virus.

    The independent SAGE was set up to rival the government's official SAGE committee and is made up of a group of scientists who have been highly critical of the government's response to the crisis.

    In a stark warning, Prof Costello warned the prime minister's plans would lead to the Covid-19 epidemic returning early to the UK, increase the number of cases and mean further preventable deaths.

    In a series of social media posts on Monday, Prof Costello revealed that an independent SAGE report presented to the government on Tuesday would argue that the prime minister's lockdown-easing plans are "misguided and over-centralised".

    "The WHO ask that 'governments refocus the whole of government on suppression and containing Covid-19'," he tweeted.

    "There is no refocus or commitment except to manage the spread. This is 'herd immunity' and 'take it on the chin'."

    Prof Costello – who was director of maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health at the WHO – said the report had found that the government's "find, test and trace" programme is not yet sufficient to control the virus.

    "In short, the government plans will lead to the epidemic returning early, cases rising, further preventable deaths, and no guarantee that herd immunity will ever occur," he added.

    "This is compounding the disastrous policy of March 12."

    Prof Costello has previously been highly critical of the government's response to coronavirus, writing in The Guardian last month that the UK government was ignoring WHO advice on dealing with the outbreak.

    "The basic principles of public health, and the daily mantra of the WHO – to find the virus, test, trace and isolate, to promote social distancing, and to do it all at speed – appear to have been effectively disregarded," he said.

    The UK's death toll passed 40,000 on Tuesday, following new figures on care home deaths released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

    It comes as the WHO condemned the "dangerous" concept of herd immunity on Tuesday.

    Herd immunity is an epidemiological term usually reserved to describe how the population as a whole is protected from a disease depending on the levels of people vaccinated.

    Dr Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO's health emergencies programme, told a press briefing in Geneva: "Humans are not herds, and, as such, the concept of herd immunity is generally reserved for calculating how many people will need to be vaccinated and the population in order to generate that effect.

    "This is a serious disease, this is public enemy number one, we have been saying it over and over and over and over again."

    He said "no one is safe until everyone is safe", adding: "So I do think this idea that 'maybe countries who had lax measures and haven't done anything will all of a sudden magically reach some herd immunity, and so what if we lose a few old people along the way?'

    "This is a really dangerous, dangerous calculation."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Government are making a complete balls up of all this, but in my opinion much of the general population are acting just as irresponsible.

      Delete
  15. This is what a union should be doing, supporting & fighting for the best interests of it's members:

    "POA have negotiated an improved Group Life Assurance scheme solely to cover its members and families. Further details will be available via circular and website in the near future." Steve Gillan Gen Sec on Twitter

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "It has been reported to the POA NEC that several incidents of spitting at our members in prisons have been rejected for prosecution. The POA will legally challenge those Chief Constable’s irrespective of the cost. We come under the Emergency Covid 19 legislation." Steve Gillan on Twitter

      What have Napo been up to?

      Delete
    2. Standing ready to talk with one man and a dog but they will copy this iniative from the poa off here now you mention it.

      Delete
  16. As of 17:00 on SUNDAY 10 MAY:
    397 prisoners have tested positive for COVID-19 across 74 prisons;
    479 prison staff have tested positive for COVID-19 across 69 prisons;
    15 (PECS) staff have tested positive for COVID-19

    POA via twitter

    ReplyDelete
  17. While everyone is rightly distracted by & concerned about the government's total mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic, there's a Commons debate today about food standards - will Bozo's pack of clowns bow to Trump & allow imports of chlorinated chicken & hormone-riddled beef?

    Or will they, in the spirit of ***their*** Brexit, 'defend our sovereignty' in terms of high environmental, food safety and animal welfare standards?

    Or is your money on yet another fudge-&-fuck-up?

    ReplyDelete
  18. https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/13-05-2020-unodc-who-unaids-and-ohchr-joint-statement-on-covid-19-in-prisons-and-other-closed-settings

    ReplyDelete
  19. Boris is number 1 why whenever I say this in office colleagues go mad

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Annon@ 17:00

      Something very weird about being stupid as a means of self amusement.
      'Being stupid makes me feel happy.'
      It's a bit pervy!

      Try this instead of being an idiot on here.

      https://m.thecolor.com/Category/Coloring/Alphabet.aspx

      Delete
  20. Hansard 23 March 2020:

    Mark Pritchard MP - On the point about testing, will the Secretary of State be absolutely clear? Does the current test that is available show whether somebody has got covid-19 or has perhaps previously had it? Does it do both, or does it do just one? If it does just do one, when are we likely to have a test that does both?

    Matt Hancock - Tests for both have recently been developed. The test for whether someone has coronavirus, which we call the case test, was first developed here by Public Health England, and that is being expanded. The antibody test, which tests whether someone has the antibodies that make them immune to coronavirus, has now been developed, and we are buying it in large quantities.... We have done more testing than most countries...

    Stephen Doughty MP - There is a specific power in schedule 21 to limit entry to premises and, if necessary, to close them down, which applies to all four Administrations. Can he be clear about whether that will apply to care homes? I have heard a lot of concern from constituents who are worried that some care homes still are not restricting entry to individuals and are therefore putting elderly residents at risk. There is real demand for this to be unified across the country to protect elderly residents.

    Matt Hancock - We have other ways to enforce that with care homes, not least contractually through local authorities. I understand the hon. Gentleman’s concern; people in care homes need to be protected, and many of them shielded, from the virus, because many of the most vulnerable people are in care homes. I will take away the point and look at whether more needs to be done...


    The misdirections & untruths of this venal administration were there right from the get go.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Question asked 21 April 2020 by Lord Naseby:

    To ask Her Majesty's Government what has been the COVID-19 testing policy for hospital patients that have been discharged to nursing and care homes over the last four weeks.

    Answered on 13 May 2020 by Lord Bethel:

    As outlined in the Adult Social Care Plan, published on 15 April 2020, any patient who moves from the National Health Service to social care will be discharged in line with the current NHS COVID-19 Discharge Requirements. NHS England and NHS Improvement published a letter on 16 April outlining the new requirement to test patients being discharged from hospital to a care home.

    The 15 April Adult Care Plan can be found here:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-adult-social-care-action-plan/covid-19-our-action-plan-for-adult-social-care

    "Safe discharge from the NHS to social care settings

    1.29 Many of the individuals who will be discharged from hospital in the days and weeks ahead will be recuperating from COVID-19, some of whom will require ongoing nursing or social care. Timely discharge is important for individuals so they can recuperate in a setting appropriate for rehabilitation and recovery – and the NHS also needs to discharge people in order to maintain capacity for acutely ill patients...

    1.30 ... we are determined to make sure discharges into nursing or social care do not put residents currently in those settings at risk. *** We can now confirm we will move to institute a policy of testing all residents prior to admission to care homes.*** This will begin with all those being discharged from hospital and the NHS will have a responsibility for testing these specific patients, in advance of timely discharge. Where a test result is still awaited, the patient will be discharged and pending the result, isolated in the same way as a COVID-positive patient will be


    So we can ascertain TWO significant facts from this government action plan:

    1. "the NHS needs to discharge people in order to maintain capacity for acutely ill patients"

    and

    2. the policy change to testing ALL residents prior to their move to a care home was only implemented on 15 April 2020, several weeks after hundreds (if not thousands) of people had already been moved into care homes, thus 'seeding' the virus into the community as Keir Starmer described at PMQs today.

    BUT (contd)...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ... previous guidance dated 2 April 2020 made it clear that NHS beds were to be cleared and testing was not necessary prior to discharge to a care home:

      "If an individual has no COVID-19 symptoms or has tested positive for COVID-19 but is no longer showing symptoms and has completed their isolation period, then care should be provided as normal. The Hospital Discharge Service and staff will clarify with care homes the COVID-19 status of an individual and any COVID-19 symptoms, during the process of transfer from a hospital
      to the care home.

      Tests will primarily be given to:
      • all patients in critical care for pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) or flu like illness
      • all other patients requiring admission to hospital for pneumonia, ARDS or flu like illness
      • where an outbreak has occurred in a residential or care setting, for example long-term care facility or prisons.

      Negative tests are not required prior to transfers / admissions into the care home.

      As testing capacity increases, the government will aim to offer more comprehensive testing to the sector:

      • Single symptomatic resident: Testing may be offered following contact with NHS 111 or according to local protocol for swabbing and testing.
      • More than one symptomatic resident: Inform the Health Protection Team (HPT). They may arrange swabbing for up to 5 initial possible cases to confirm the existence of an outbreak. Testing all cases is not required...

      Annex D: Receiving residents being discharged from hospital

      Hospitals around the country need as many beds as possible to support and treat an increasing number of COVID-19 cases. This means the NHS will seek to discharge more patients into care homes for the recovery period (see Table 1).

      During the COVID-19 response it will not be possible for care homes to visit a potential resident in hospital to assess their care needs. A Discharge to Assess (D2A) model is in place to streamline the discharge process and the assessment of care needs will be undertaken by hospital discharge teams, in collaboration with Trusted Assessors.

      Delete
    2. Flabbergasted at this all over the country this weekend.

      https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/anti-lockdown-mass-protest-gathering-18247351.amp

      Delete
  22. 11 May 2020, i.e. Monday of this week:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-launches-new-portal-for-care-homes-to-arrange-coronavirus-testing

    Government launches new portal for care homes to arrange coronavirus testing

    All care home staff and residents are now eligible for testing with priority for those in homes that look after the over-65s

    A new online portal that makes it easy for care homes to arrange deliveries of coronavirus test kits has been launched today.

    As the national testing capacity has increased, the government is prioritising testing for care homes and other areas with the greatest need.

    All symptomatic and asymptomatic care home staff and residents in England are now eligible for testing. Testing will be prioritised for care homes that look after the over 65s.


    Let's be clear about the wording:

    "All symptomatic and asymptomatic care home staff and residents in England *ARE NOW ELIGIBLE FOR TESTING.*"

    Bozo, in HoC today at PMQs answering Keir Starmer:

    "The ONS is responsible for producing its data... and the Government have also produced data... since the care homes action plan began we are seeing an appreciable and substantial reduction not just in the number of outbreaks, but in the number of deaths... I can tell the House that the number of discharges from hospitals into care homes actually went down in March and April, and we had a system of testing people going into care homes."


    As we know, the care home action plan which had a (fatally flawed) system of testing was only in place from 15 April.

    Just a month (18 March) earlier we had the empty promise that "The increased testing will also include developing a point-of-care swab test outside of hospitals, so people with suspected symptoms can quickly find out if they have coronavirus."

    On 13 March the government published guidance on social care but there was not a single mention of testing:

    "Elderly people and those with underlying health conditions are much more likely to develop serious complications. Anyone who is suspected of having COVID-19, with a new continuous cough or high temperature, should not visit care homes or people receiving home care, and should self-isolate at home.

    People receiving care will be isolated in their rooms if they have symptoms of coronavirus. To ensure they can continue to receive the care they require, care staff will use protective equipment to minimise the risk of transmission."

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-adult-social-care-guidance-to-protect-the-most-vulnerable-against-covid-19

    ReplyDelete
  23. Does anyone know what happened to the Lord Chancellor

    ReplyDelete
  24. Judging by the rapid succession of Justice Secretaries over the past 5 years, he probably just exploded... Like a Spinal Tap drummer.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Boris: "The ONS is responsible for producing its data... and the Government have also produced data"

    That just about sums up these arrogant fantasists - if the science or the data or the advice doesn't suit them, they make their own up or omit to say what's really happening.

    There are currently two parallel versions of SAGE, The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. The Independent SAGE features the straight-talking Anthony Costello, e.g. tweets from today:

    "Robert Jenrick and Dr Jenny Harries defend the decision to delete the country comparison of deaths graph now that it shows the UK has the highest death rates in Europe. This graph has been shown for 7 weeks. Doctors should not support political manipulation of health data."

    And here highlighting how UK coronavirus management is being outsourced before our very eyes:

    "Tom Hurd, new biosecurity unit, Baroness Harding CEO 'test, track trace', Deloitte (test), SERCO (trace call centres), Boston Consulting Group (?), NHSX(?). A plethora of chiefs + apps. We must restore public health ownership locally."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31098-9/fulltext

      “Is the government's objective to suppress infection or to manage the infection?”, asked Sir David King at the first press conference of a newly formed independent Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), held last week. The UK now has two SAGEs. The officially constituted SAGE has seen its reputation collapse during the past 3 months. Partly, this loss of credibility arose out of the group's unwillingness to be transparent about its membership and its proceedings. At a moment of national emergency, SAGE's secrecy simply became unacceptable. The public had a right to know the evidence on which advice was being made to government—advice that was not only protecting lives but also destroying livelihoods. But the official SAGE luxuriated in elite insouciance. It displayed a very British characteristic: the arrogance of exceptionalism. Rarely has a publicly constituted body been so out of touch with the public mood for accountability.
      By striking contrast, the independent SAGE published its membership before holding its first meeting. A more gender and ethnically diverse scientific group than the official SAGE, the new committee was also broader in the range of science it drew upon. Public health was its core, but it also included experts on modelling, behavioural science, and public policy. This wider intellectual reach made its recommendations more relevant to the UK's current predicament. The first meeting was broadcast on YouTube, giving the public full access to the difficult judgments needed to steer the country out of lockdown. It also displayed the challenges faced by political decision makers who have to ensure the country is prepared should a second wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic ensue. “I completely disagree with you Martin”, replied Allyson Pollock to Martin McKee at one point. He had suggested that legislation to reform the health and social care system in the aftermath of COVID-19 was unlikely in the short term. Pollock disagreed. She believed that legislation was possible if the political will was there. It was an example of the transparency many observers of the regime of science policy making had been craving.

      contd...

      Delete
    2. contd...

      The recommendations from the independent SAGE focused on five additional areas beyond seeking clarification of the government's overall objective in managing the pandemic. First, how was the government planning to ensure financial security for the most marginalised groups in society, including black and minority ethnic populations? COVID-19 has revealed, exploited, and accentuated deep socioeconomic and racial disparities in the UK. As Zubaida Haque noted, the existing “economic safety net is not enough”. Haque is deputy director of the Runnymede Trust and an expert on race equality. The government had ignored those least able to protect themselves, she argued. Second, community public health and primary care systems needed to be urgently strengthened. Pollock directs the Newcastle University Centre for Excellence in Regulatory Science. She pointed out that community public health had been decimated during the past decade. Third, improved long-term planning was required to meet the needs of those most at risk of infection—by increasing intensive care capacity, for example. Fourth, policies were needed to control borders—at seaports, airports, and for train services to Europe. And finally, the emphasis on vaccines as a means to return life to some measure of normality should be tempered by accepting that no vaccine was going to be a perfect “magic bullet”. As Deenan Pillay, Professor of Virology at University College London, stressed, even if a vaccine was made and manufactured by the end of the year it was unlikely to be completely effective and would almost certainly not be universally taken up. King's argument for setting up a rival body to SAGE was that ensuring public trust in scientific advice given to government demanded that those giving advice should not be dependent on the government. Too many of those on the official SAGE were government employees. This first meeting of an independent SAGE set a new standard for science policy making. The openness of the process, vigour of discussion, and identification of issues so far barely discussed by politicians injected much-needed candour into public and political discussions about COVID-19. It is hard to predict the longevity of this new group. But its point was made. On the same day it held its first meeting, the government published the names of the members of the official SAGE.

      Delete
    3. More here about Independent SAGE

      https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/uk-government-should-not-keep-scientific-advice-secret-former-chief-adviser-says

      Q: One issue has been the fact that it was not known who the members of SAGE are. After you set up the independent SAGE, a list of most members of SAGE was released.

      A: That was a good response. It showed that there is some kind of sensitivity within government to what we are saying, and that gives me hope. However, it’s not nearly enough. We noted that not all members of SAGE were in that list. Some people said they didn’t want their names published.

      Q: Two people were not named.

      A: There’s a big contentious issue here, whether two people who The Guardian had leaked as being members of SAGE were, in fact, members or not. Those two are Dominic Cummings and his colleague [Ben Warner]. Both of them are political advisers paid for by the Conservative Party, not even civil servants who we believe were originally listed as members of the committee. So it’s interesting that only two names have not appeared.

      Delete
    4. http://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/The-Independent-SAGE-Report.pdf

      The Independent SAGE Report - COVID-19: what are the options for the UK?

      Recommendations for government based on an open and transparent examination of the scientific evidence

      Delete
  26. Presumably all is tickety-boo in probation-land. No complaints about anything, no news...

    HMPPS & the CRCs must be cock-a-hoop. Either they've got it just right (I suspect not) or they've got everyone by the short-&-curlies, too terrified to utter a squeak.

    ReplyDelete
  27. New York Times (of all places):

    "(Reuters) - Public Health England (PHE) has given approval to Swiss drugmaker Roche Holding AG's coronavirus antibody test kit, The Telegraph reported late on Wednesday, making it the first such kit approved by Britain's public health agency.

    The accuracy of the test was given approval by experts at PHE's Porton Down facility last Thursday, the newspaper said https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/13/exclusive-first-coronavirus-antibody-test-given-approval-public.

    The newspaper added it understands that UK's Department of Health and Social Care is in negotiations with Roche to buy millions of the kits.

    (Reporting by Aakriti Bhalla in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)"

    ReplyDelete
  28. https://www.itv.com/news/london/2020-05-13/boy-14-dies-from-rare-syndrome-linked-to-covid-19/

    ReplyDelete
  29. Our London-centric Government at its selfish best:

    Boris Johnson is being urgently pushed by northern mayors to publish local rates of Covid transmission - amid fears that dropping the ‘Stay at Home’ message is premature when new cases here currently exceed those anywhere else in England.

    Andy Burnham and his Liverpool counterpart, Steve Rotheram, are warning the Prime Minister that the highest number of new cases last week were in the North West, arguing ‘we are not yet on the clear downward trajectory seen in other parts of the country’.

    In a letter to the Prime Minister they also point to the latest report from the ‘Independent Sage’ group of scientists, set up as a ‘constructive alternative’ to the government’s official advice, which says changes to national guidance is ‘dangerous’ and will lead to further localised outbreaks.

    Both mayors are now calling on the government to urgently publish regional - and sub-regional - figures for the ‘R’, the rate of coronavirus transmission within the general population.

    Their letter comes amid concern that the dropping of ‘Stay at Home’ this weekend was ill-advised for areas where cases have not fallen at the same rate as London, with local leaders here repeatedly having stressed that we are several weeks behind the capital.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/mayors-urge-prime-minister-publish-18240494

    ReplyDelete
  30. For the record - Spanish researchers tested 60,000 samples, twice tested & cross-checked for clarity. They found that even in the most exposed population (Madrid) a maximum 11% of the sample had SARSCov2 (aka covid-19) antibodies.

    'Herd immunity' requires min. 80% showing antibodies. We're so far off that it beggars belief that the govt is prepared to relax lockdown at this time.

    The Numbers applied to the UK:

    UK pop = 67+m
    11% x 67+m = approx 7.5m est with antibodies

    Current UK govt figures say 34,000 deaths

    So current UK mortality risk (using govt data) = 0.5%

    0.5% x 59.5m (i.e. population less those with antibodies)

    That predicts 297,500 covid-19 deaths in the UK in the absence of any vaccine or other treatment intervention.
    _________________________________________________________

    Using ONS data @13 May 2020 UK = 51,400 deaths = 0.7%, predicting 416,500 UK covid-19 deaths.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So let's "nuance" that data a bit more.

      Let's use just the higher risk population over 65:

      20% x 67m = 13.4m; 11% = 1.4m

      0.5% x 12m = 60,000 predicted deaths 65+yr olds
      __________________________________________________

      Over 40's?

      Approx 33.4m, meaning approx 30m without antibodies

      0.5% x 30m = 150,000 predicted deaths 40+yr olds
      ___________________________________________________

      Delete
    2. Your analysis is flawed because you have assumed an equal mortality rate for all age groups which is clearly false.

      Delete
    3. You are absolutely correct. And there ain't any analysis that will get that aspect right. But its a damn sight more honest & frank than the UK government's highly selective PR figures.

      For example, the UK Govt briefing today gave the following data:

      Estimated average number of people who had COVID-19

      148,000 = 0.27% = Estimated average proportion of the community population [in England] that had COVID-19 between 27 April and 10 May (95% confidence interval: 0.17% to 0.41%)


      It was used as a 'positive' message to say how well they've done.

      Firstly it underlines how stupid their 'herd immunity' policy was and secondly, it makes the argument for NOT unlocking the nation even stronger because the risk of infection remains extremely high for the community.

      With that number in the population estimated to have had the virus over that two week period I'd expect another two weeks of the lockdown would bring that number down to the low thousands.

      Its only at that point starting to cautiously unlock would be safe-ish.

      I fear they've jumped the gun and we're going to have a significant Covid-19 Part II, not least because parts of the population has gone unlock-crazy.

      Our roads, beaches and footpaths have been swamped with bodies in the last two days. It ain't going to end well.

      Delete
    4. And my analysis took no account of the prevalence of diabetes in the population, a condition which is now claimed to be significant in terms mortality, i.e. 26% of all NHS hospital reported deaths in England had a pre-existing diabetes diagnosis.

      The variables continue to appear by the hour...

      Delete