Even without these possible changes, the actual future prison population may not match any of the projected scenarios. Changes to criminal justice processes could influence the numbers of offenders being brought to the point of sentence or the way that offenders are managed. Changes to sentencing behaviour may also be different from those modelled. Finally, both sentencing behaviour and criminal justice processes, as well as policy decisions, can respond to a multitude of environmental factors which cannot be anticipated, such as high profile criminal cases, events like the August 2011 public disorder events, and public debate.
It strikes me as about as much use as a chocolate fire guard, but then I am cynical and as Russell points out, the last projections were spot-on, falling exactly at the mid-point between scenarios 1 of 83,000 and scenario 2 of 84,600 at 83,843.
So, what do these very smart statisticians think will happen over the next five years? Well, they say it will either go down to 77,300 or down to 81,000 or go up to 86,000 by June 2019.
Of course the period under consideration will see the government's flagship Transforming Rehabilitation omnishambles come into force and which many of us say will have the effect of significantly increasing the prison population. But given the following and no mention of TR, it's unclear whether the figures take it into account at all:-
The projections do not reflect the impact of legislative, policy, operational or procedural change or guidance for which there is no definite timetable for implementation. The projections therefore provide a set of “baseline” scenarios against which the impacts of future changes can be assessed.If we and the experts are proved right though and magistrates sentence greater numbers to short periods of custody, confident that statutory supervision will be provided, and a significant number breach the requirements and return to custody, TR will indeed be assured of its place in history as yet another major government policy disaster.
When you think you've thought of all the reasons the prison population may swell, theres always one more.
ReplyDelete'Sorry. Couldn't resist'!
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-25929193
A ferret called Grumpy Gareth because of his unsociable behaviour has been found a new home - in jail.
DeleteDartmoor Prison stepped in after hearing that Woodside Animal Sanctuary in Plymouth was struggling to re-home him.
No owner was willing to take him on because he was nipping other ferrets.
Gareth, who has been given a special coat with arrows, is now residing with other prison ferrets who help keep rat numbers down at the jail.
Gareth was brought to Woodside in May 2013 but ended up a long-term resident because of his personality problems.
Because he was so aggressive towards others, 14 ferrets also needing Woodside's care were unable to be taken in.
Now the feisty ferret has got a new lease of life at Dartmoor Prison.
Sanctuary manager Debbie Haynes said: "Gareth is an extremely lucky chap.
"Although we all grew to love him, we were growing concerned about the rising number of unwanted ferrets he was preventing us from taking in.
"Now he'll be given time, which will hopefully teach him to enjoy the company of others."
Leon Lambert-Gorwyn, from the sanctuary, said prison staff took pity on Gareth after seeing him on the BBC's South West regional news programme, Spotlight.
"I had a tour of the exercise yard," he said.
"They have a huge place to run around in and he is going to be taught to walk on a harness.
"I think Gareth will be happy. You won't get a much better home for him than prison.
"And maybe he'll learn the error of his ways."
The prison's governor said Gareth would be of double benefit - pest control and helping prisoners.
"We already have some ferrets at the prison which help with rodent control - since their arrival the number of rat sightings has dropped dramatically," Terry Witton said.
"Having ferrets like Gareth is also useful as the prisoners help look after them and that in turn helps give them a sense of responsibility."
Seen on a lampost outside the Mermaid fish &chip restaurant in Morley nr Leeds a poster which read " Lost, ferret, answers to the name of Brian. Phone 0113........ There was also a photo of the said ferret.
DeleteLol
DeleteStephen Hawkings couldn't work out a formulation to predict the growth of the prison population at the moment.
ReplyDeleteLonger sentences, supervision of 12 months and under, reduced access to legal aid, reduction in the use of cautions, no benefits for anyone under 25, a recruitment of untrained unskilled personel to the criminal justice system, a government drive to limit access to human rights, more people going to prison for breaching tagging orders as it's not so easy to fiddle anymore, far less continuity in managing offenders in the community, vastly reduced parole board membership.....on and on and on.
So sir. Forget Stephen Hawkings. Not even Nostradamus could predict the future on this one.
So prison population will increase then the next part of the plan can be put in place. Do you remember during the opposition debate one of the Conservative MPs going off topic and talking about using ex army bases for offenders and their families? Here it is again, this time by a Conservative PCC.
Deletehttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2508493/Tory-crime-tsar-Put-Shameless-families-years-boot-camp-hell.html
Feckless families should be put through ‘two years of hell’ in boot camps to turn their lives around, a crime tsar has urged.
DeleteLayabout parents – like the characters in hit TV show Shameless – would undergo an ‘intensive’ programme to keep them out of crime and unemployment, says Adam Simmonds, Police and Crime Commissioner (PCC) for Northamptonshire.
He said derelict Army bases could be used to house them while they were taught basic household skills, ordered to stop drinking and smoking, and given basic job training.
Their children, meanwhile, would be educated properly. ‘You’ve got to break the cycle, tackle that poverty of ambition,’ Mr Simmonds told The Mail on Sunday. The PCC – whose pioneering plan to merge police and fire services won praise from Home Secretary Theresa May – insists his idea would be cheaper than repeatedly sending career criminals to jail and taking their offspring into care.
An adult prison place costs £40,000 a year while it costs an estimated £140,000 a year to keep a young person in a children’s home.
The Tory PCC said that in Kettering, Northants, police believe that just ten families are responsible for the majority of burglaries. He added: ‘The kids don’t go to school, none of them are in work. They cause the bulk of the problem – they go to prison, come out, generation after generation. ‘I’d like to take them out of Kettering, put them somewhere else to retrain the family.
‘We’ve got to be more radical than sending social workers to get mum and dad out of bed. Sending them to prison hasn’t worked so what else do you do?’
Under his plan, the most troubled households would be told they could escape the cycle of reoffending and unemployment by agreeing to go into a new residential programme.
‘There’s something in the idea of discipline, doing it in a different location and doing it as a family. Tell the man, you’re going to get up, have breakfast, go for a run, quit smoking and drinking.’
But criminal justice expert Harry Fletcher said: ‘It would be extremely difficult to administer and manage, and it may run counter to the European Convention on Human Rights.’
The Tory Government of the 1990s introduced boot camps for young offenders but research suggested they did not cut reoffending and were too costly.
Earlier this week prisoners sentenced in the North were shuttled to the Midlands as there were no available places left...yesterday at an oral hearing talking to a prison officer who explained that the situation in the South was currently at breaking point-this situation was as a result of more people receiving custodial sentences and lack of movement but the officer suggested that it is not just about numbers but inappropriate categorisation that is currently rampant with some suggesting that this situation is being artificially created so that when the service breaks down or god forbid we have another Strangeways, good old private prisons ride to the rescue like the 7th cavalry.....contempt for the safety of staff working in prisons is at an all time high so Im told-it does raise the question of why no joint POA/NAPO initiatives??? Mind you the British Empire thrived on divide and rule......seems some lessons are never learned
ReplyDeleteAll bodes really well for that grand TR Resettlement Prison plan doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteAs to the thought that "good old private prisons ride to the rescue like the 7th cavalry..."
ReplyDeleteIf Oakwood is anything to go by (and it is) they will be hobbling in the general direction of the rescue on a three legged pantomime camel.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/10607071/Fifth-of-unemployment-benefit-claimants-have-criminal-record-say-new-figures.html
ReplyDeleteMore than a fifth of people on unemployment benefits have a criminal record, government figures have revealed.
ReplyDeleteThe new data showed an estimated 22 per cent of all people claiming out of work claimants - such as Jobseeker’s Allowance - were made by people who had been to prison or convicted of an offence in the previous 12 years.
The study - which was described as “experimental” - compared 4.3 million offenders in England and Wales whose names appeared in court records or the Police National Computer with separate benefits records held by the Department for Work and Pensions. In all, more than 1.1 million of the 5.2 million people claiming out-of-work benefits had a criminal record, or 22 per cent. The new figures showed the proportion of claimants with a criminal past across all types of benefits including the state pension was much lower, at 7 per cent.
Chris Grayling, the Justice Secretary, is pushing through reforms which aim to provide more support to offenders who are released from jail back into the community.
Jeremy Wright, the justice minister, said: “We are committed to delivering long-needed changes that will see all offenders released from prison receive targeted support to finally turn themselves around and start contributing to society.”
The figures also showed 44 per cent of offenders were claiming benefits a month after being convicted, cautioned or released from jail.
More than half of offenders - 54 per cent - released from prison were claiming out-of-work benefits one month later, gradually decreasing to 42 per cent two years after.
In all, 214,000 people claiming out-of-work benefits had been to prison at least once in the previous 12 years, or 4 per cent of the total.
Previous data published in 2011 estimated the proportion of criminal claimants was slightly higher, at 26 per cent, but a Ministry of Justice spokesman said the sets of figures were not directly comparable.
The Torygraph has always been in the Conservative Party's back pocket, but I'm sure it used to have some pride in itself. This just reads as a pathetic copy of a MoJ press release
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