Monday, 11 August 2025

Contribution Selection

There's an awful lot going on in the criminal justice world at the moment with crises in most parts of our criminal justice systems and particularly the probation and prison service's. As a consequence, I'm particularly heartened by what appears to be the fairly recent re-energisation of our readers and contributors. It's re-energised me and I'd like to thank you all! Here's my recent pick:- 

Tone deaf doesn’t even begin to cover it. The MoJ and HMPPS simply don’t listen to their staff. The people designing policies and making the big decisions are so far removed from the frontline it’s almost laughable. My head in hands in despair I’ve just watched the news about deporting foreign national prisoners, electronic tags, and ‘tougher’ unpaid work, all to achieve the only thing they seem to care about: reducing prison overcrowding. They have no insight into the causes of offending and imprisonment. Just as with the all these probation officer recruitment campaigns peppered with young white middle-class female graduates claiming to ‘make a difference’ or represent diverse communities, it’s so out of touch they might as well rip up the half-baked, back-of-a-fag-packet blueprints, wait for ChatGPT-5, and just do what the computer says. Forget waiting for “probation leaders” to say anything above the parapet.

All we ever ask for is simple: fairer pay, better access to support services for the ‘PiPs’ and ‘PoPs’, legislation to make it happen, give probation some credibility instead of running it into the ground as an overflow tank for the prison service, and to stop being forced into pointless, performance-driven, civil service tick-box practices that don’t work.

There’s been a lot on here recently about staff-led initiatives and recommendations, but the reality is stark no matter what we think, feel or say. I came across this comment on one of the recent Napo articles by a fellow probation officer, and it sums it up where we are perfectly.

“…it will likely be overlooked by probation services, HMPPS, and much of the academic establishment.”

******
I’ve got nothing against white, middle-class females or graduates training as POs, but we do need a broader range of backgrounds, experiences, and skills. Right now, everyone tends to look and think the same. At 26, fresh out of university, how much real insight can most have into offending or the causes of crime? Selling probation as a “career protecting the public while supporting rehabilitation” doesn’t help either, it’s vague to the point of meaning very little.

******
The only positive of being a civil servant is that you can transfer across to another department relatively easily. Have a look on Civil Service Jobs for example. Better pay, work only contracted hours, proper meal breaks etc. Goodwill is dead, it is a one way street. Look after yourself and get out!

******
All I can see happening from these proposals is the recall rate rocketing, which will hardly ease the pressures on the prison population. There is just TOO MANY PEOPLE being shoved through the probation service. Increasing the probation capacity is not going to reduce the prison population. The focus needs to be about how best remove people from the criminal justice revolving door system, and not looking at how best to accommodate them within it.

******
And that’s exactly why they need to listen to the right people, whether the focus is on getting people out of the criminal justice revolving door, finding better ways to accommodate them within it, or preventing them from entering it in the first place.

I’m sick to death of seeing people who haven’t been near a probation office or held a caseload in years, if ever, dictating, designing, and inspecting what probation does. It’s demoralising for those that are there every day, making them feel frustrated and inadequate.

Many are proud to be probation officers, working daily alongside those on probation, with colleagues and services in every imaginable context. Real probation work. Real challenges.

Those delivering day in, day out deserve support, not endless criticism or the constant barrage of being done to. They don’t need people far removed from the frontline endlessly telling them what to do, constantly rewriting the rules, and never once genuinely asking for, let alone using, the insight of those actually doing the job.

Probation officers are all aiming for the same thing: helping people change for the better, overcome struggles, and live offence-free lives. It should be a network of encouragement and collaboration, not a hierarchy of managers and ministers in their ivory towers, academics in their cosy libraries, think-tanks detached from reality, or even certain ex-offenders with lived experience who’d rather take shots at probation officers than try to understand what’s really happening.

Because in the end, experience on the ground matters just as much as what’s on paper. I remember when probation was full of people who had a voice and spoke for probation, some were legendary, challenging senior management and ministers alike. Until we get back to that, until we have a less demoralised or docile workforce, until we have genuine leaders who know what probation is, or should be, until those in charge truly listen to the frontline, then nothing will really change. Because if we did, much of these policies wouldn’t pass quality control.

*****
A couple of observations if I may, first the inclusion of sex offenders is very sensible as that cohort has one of the lowest recividism rates. You can't see past your own prejudices when it comes to SO's and using them to appeal to public sympathy just stokes that prejudice further.

Second, the rate of recalls, which have reached absurd levels, was always going to come back to bite your backsides. The fact that you use tools to assess risk that by your own admission are all but useless suggests probation got many of those decisions wrong, the majority of them in fact.

I don't blame probation for this per se, it's on the politicians wanting to appear 'tuff on crime innit' but I also accept some will have abused that power because some always will.

*****
As a VLO I absolutely share these concerns. I’ve got 5 repeat DA perpetrators due out on 2nd September - they are SFOs waiting to happen. Victims have been extremely hard hit with all the chaos over the past 18 months with all the emphasis on reducing the prison population. I’ve never known a worse time.

With the proposals to immediately remove FNOs, there will be further upset, anger, devastation, and disillusionment in the CJS. Victims, quite rightly, expect offenders to serve their punishment in prison when a custodial sentence is passed. They’re often upset enough all ready with the current arrangements where they can be released early, back to their own countries as free men/women. This can include rapists, child abuses and death by dangerous driving. I don’t think the public have any understanding that deported offenders don’t typically serve their punishment/remainder of their sentences in their home country. Changing the legislation to allow immediate deportation is a huge slap in the face for victims, having gone through the stress and upset of a police investigation and court process - all the told that their offender will simply be returned home. I can’t help but feel that this new legislation will leave the door wide open for FNOs to come to this country with the intention of offending, knowing that IF they are caught they’re just likely to be put on a flight home.


The MoJ has completely lost all sight of putting victims at the heart of the CJS.

*****
It has been a some years since I last visited Probation Matters Blogspot. I was a regular contributor back when Probation had been largely privatised, a mistake of such enormity I am surprised noone has ever really been held to account. Some points to touch upon that struck me from reading some of the comments. OASys still an issue. Pay still an issue. Prison overcrowding still an issue. Probation workloads still an issue. Diversity and background of Probation staff still an issue. And so on. It really was better in the past as I remember, particularly protected workloads. There was a time when OASys was imagined as a tool to help probation professionals and not something that consumed an unsustainable and huge amount of time such that it almost became the job itself. 

Regards pay, it looks to me that Probation pay suffered a supercharged level of austerity measure and then some. The political ramping up of tough on crime message, always popular when looking to garner some votes, is now being supercharged by new kids on the block Reform. Other parties will follow and prison population and early release schemes will doubtless increase accordingly. Regards professional diversity, I became a Trainee Probation Officer, a rare male recruit, around the millennium without a first degree just bags of committment and some ability. I was ever grateful for the opportunity and did not disappoint, by my own say I did some very good work in MY local community. Keep on keeping on battling for your profession, it really matters. All the best.

50 comments:

  1. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/aug/10/i-experienced-britains-prisons-crisis-first-hand-but-the-owers-review-gives-me-hope

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anne Owers’ damning review of the prison capacity crisis should serve as a watershed moment for criminal justice policy in this country (Prison system was days from collapse three times under Sunak, review finds, 5 August). As someone who spent time in prison in 2017, and having now worked for a prison charity for four years, I have witnessed first-hand the “permacrisis” she describes.

      The review contains many revelations as to the state of the system. The worst in my eyes is the testimony of prison staff who said that, rather than “developing relationships with prisoners to help them progress … they were in the office, checking and re-checking release dates”. This perfectly sums up the problem: when capacity pressures force us to treat people as mere numbers to be shuffled around the system, we abandon any pretence of rehabilitation.

      But the review shows there is hope. The 90% reduction in youth custody over two decades proves that community-based prevention works. The youth justice system’s multi-agency approach, involving health, education, social services and families, has achieved what our adult system cannot: actually reducing offending.

      Prison reform campaigners are often accused of being “soft on crime”. But there is nothing soft about wanting a system that actually works – one that makes communities safer rather than simply warehousing problems. The current system fails victims, fails offenders, and fails taxpayers. Dame Anne has given us a roadmap out of this crisis. The question is whether our political leaders have the courage to follow it.
      James Stoddart
      Coordinator, The Oswin Project

      Delete
  2. Labour or Reform MP?

    "Comin' over 'ere an' taking our prison places..."

    Rosie May Wrighting is a former fashion buyer & figure skater who has served as Member of Parliament for Kettering since 2024. Here she is discussing Labour’s announcement granting new powers for the immediate deportation of foreign national offenders.

    “…These were people who were going to be deported anyway, but it means we can do it earlier saving taxpayers’ money… we literally came into Downing Street and had a tally on the wall of how many prison places were left, like, in the UK, we need these spaces in our prisons and, erm, its not right that foreign criminals are taking up space in our prisons, costing our taxpayers money, and, they should be returned to their country of origin…”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002gzrd

    approx. 30 mins in

    ReplyDelete
  3. "The MoJ has completely lost all sight of putting victims at the heart of the CJS."

    yep, but that happened when they dumped victim work on already over-stretched probation staff: "The Criminal Justice and Court Services Act (2000) placed victim contact work on a legislative footing for probation services."

    Prior to this there was 'victim contact' work, but it was limited in scope: "On 22 February 1990, European Victims’ Day, the Home Secretary announced the ‘Victim’s Charter’, a document which sets out the rights and expectations of people who have become the victims of crime."

    There was a review in 2001:

    "The role of the National Probation Service in
    post conviction work with victims (or their
    families) of serious offenders has been
    reviewed and further improvements to the
    service are in hand. At present, the National
    Probation Service begin working with victims
    when the offender is sentenced to 4 years
    imprisonment or more for a sexual or violent
    offence. The Criminal Justice and Court
    Services Act is reducing this period to 12
    months or more from April 2001."

    For "further improvements" read "even more work for probation staff".

    https://hmiprobation.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/victim-work/

    "The Government’s Victim Strategy (2018) included commitments for increased funding for services, easier opting-in to the Victim Contact Scheme, and improved training for Victim Liaison Officers.

    Other key elements of probation victim work include restorative justice, facilitating mediation, and referring service users to victim awareness training.
    Summary of the evidence
    Services to victims

    Victims often do not access services which may help them for several reasons:

    lack of knowledge about available services
    not wanting or believing they do not need victim services
    lack of access to services
    fear of re-victimisation, re-traumatisation, or blame by service providers
    lack of eligibility for services.

    A 2016 evidence review by the Victim Commissioner found that most victims were dissatisfied by the services provided."

    I haven't yet found any meaningful piece about the conflict of interest issues raised by probation staff undertaking victim work; surely it ought to be a separate & independent organisation, albeit with a ready exchange of information to facilitate the victim work.
    ______________________________________________________

    In general terms, nothing has changed for the better over the last couple of decades (or even longer), has it?

    "The conclusion that one draws is that there has been a failure adequately to resource prison and probation services. Both services are ill equipped to deal with yet another reorganisation and further layers of bureaucracy. The projected national offender management service could be an organisational disaster" - Mr. Elfyn Llwyd (Meirionnydd Nant Conwy) (PC), National Offender Management Service HC Deb 17 March 2004 vol 419 cc71-93WH

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anon at 18.14.
    Victims have no business at the heart of the CJS because they are not criminals, the clue is in the name. Victimology is destroying the ethos of probation whose purpose ought to be rehabilitation of offenders and prevention of future victims. Victims should recieve all the support and support they need and deserve outside the CJS.

    The dangerous drift towards allowing victims a say in sentencing, and worse still, a say in what happens after a sentence is served more dangerous still. This will cause resentment and risk further SFO's. When the 'deterrent' is seen as worse than prison where is the incentive to change? You guys need to change course.
    sox

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Originally work with victims was supposed to come from the then new all purpose Local Authority Social Services Departments, following on from The Seebohm Report in 1968 that led to them starting after 1970 alongside CQSW training from 1972.

      Delete
  5. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ministry-of-justice-conservative-wales-england-shabana-mahmood-b1242383.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The prison population of England and Wales has jumped to the highest number in nearly a year and is nearing record levels, despite the early release of tens of thousands of offenders, official figures show.

      A total of 88,238 people were in jail as of Monday, up 231 on the previous week and a rise of more than 1,200 in the past two months, according to data published by the Ministry of Justice.

      There are just 283 fewer prisoners now than the record high of 88,521 reached in September last year during the aftermath of the summer riots in towns and cities across the UK.

      The spike comes despite Government efforts to ease overcrowding by freeing some 26,456 offenders early since last year.

      The scheme was launched as an emergency measure in September, with eligible inmates serving more than five years released after serving only 40% of their fixed-term sentence, rather than the usual 50%.

      Ministers have since announced further plans to free up space following a major independent review by former Conservative Lord Chancellor David Gauke.

      Delete
    2. When three out of four people being released are recalled, it's hardly surprising that prisons remain full.
      It makes no sense at all either when most of those recalled are subject to a fixed term 14 day period.
      Recall is being used as a punitive measure rather then a mitigation against risk. It's prison centric thinking. If someone's in prison and is non compliant they get 7 days in the block. If someone is on probation and is non compliant they get 14 days back behind the wall. Recall is being used as a punishment and not for its intended purpose.
      The more people that are shoved into the probation machine the greater the recall rate will be. More recalls equal more people in prison, its really not rocket science.
      It really has become a "probation to prison pipeline" and the more people there are subjected to probation, the quicker that pipeline flows.

      https://insidetime.org/newsround/for-every-four-releases-there-are-three-recalls/

      'Getafix

      Delete
    3. 75% Recall by probation - its professionally lazy, its often petty, its sometimes personal & spiteful (either by supervising officer on supervisee or manager against staff member*); but more importantly it causes significant damage to many being recalled in so many ways, e.g. trust, motivation, willingness to attempt to make changes, respect, mental health, loss of relationships, loss of housing, loss of employment... loss of life...

      * yes, let's be honest, it DOES happen - managers can & do enforce a recall decision on a case because they have a beef with a member of staff, seeing the recall decision as a means of imposing their authority &/or punishing the staff member (esp when a lot of work has been undertaken with a case).

      As stated above, it is prison-centric thinking, command-&-control, JFDI, etc.

      Delete
    4. who needs probation 'skills' anymore? kempsall & clarke & others have finally perfected their ideal tool:

      "Prisons will use new tool called the 'AI violence predictor' to determine the threat posed by individuals in custody"

      repost of Anonymous7 August 2025 at 10:17

      https://insidetime.org/newsround/computer-says-criminal-as-government-launches-ai-violence-predictor/

      Delete
    5. This is so true the number of younger officers who take an action by one of their charges as personal is astonishing……..this is a deficit in their training,such as it is these days, I’m seeing good officers damaged early on by sloppy managerial approaches ( back covering)….when sometimes all that is required is a word…..managers and staff are so fearful of the Spanish Inquisition approach by the SFO team now that judgement has been made redundant ……

      Delete
  6. youth custody data - how does it compare to adult prison populations?

    Apr 2015:
    10-14 yrs - 50
    aged 15 yrs - 117
    aged 16 yrs - 297
    aged 17 yrs - 535
    aged 18 yrs & over - 86
    TOT: 985

    Apr 2020
    aged 10-14 yrs - 22
    aged 15 yrs - 72
    aged 16 yrs - 178
    aged 17 yrs - 392
    aged 18 yrs & over - 85
    TOT: 749

    Apr 2025
    aged 10-14 yrs - 18
    aged 15 yrs - 37
    aged 16 yrs - 111
    aged 17 yrs - 217
    aged 18 yrs & over - 86
    TOT: 469

    Oh... its more than halved.

    Prisons estate overall:

    Apr 2015 - 86,591 - not specifying any Youth Custody data
    Apr 2020 - 81,124 - not specifying any Youth Custody data
    Apr 2025 - 88,084 - incl 313 (?) in Youth Custody

    ReplyDelete
  7. Because youth justice services can write professional reports addressing trauma and needs as well as risk whilst probation writes 20 pages of diatribe about orgrs and recommend everyone gets locked up

    ReplyDelete
  8. Shouting into the void here - how are other areas responding to the aftermath of Preston? In typical Probation back covering fashion we've been told we are not to see any offenders outside the building anymore (we have an outdoor seating area which is tucked away) as we cannot risk assess this, yet we can do home visits and sit in a 2x2 room... been directed to do some training on managing aggression which says to see people outside as a deescalation tool! They scramble so fast they can't even keep up with their own tripe...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In Brum we've been reissued a spreadsheet on all the risk protocols and told to familiarise ourselves with it, so less than useless basically. I'd be better off printing it out, rolling it up and keeping it in my back pocket to beat the offenders off with it! Seeing them out in the fresh air is often the best way to develop a relationship with some of them.

      Delete
  9. pickles admits acoba is a pile o' shyte

    https://www.civilserviceworld.com/in-depth/article/revolvingdoors-shakeup-how-will-acobas-abolition-affect-civil-servants-30640

    "An overhaul of the post-government jobs system for former ministers, civil servants and special advisers has long been called for, and former Acoba chair Eric Pickles in June told MPs the regulator was “dead in the water, next to useless, utterly pointless and in need of reform”.

    Acoba is set to be abolished on 13 October, with its functions transferring over to the Civil Service Commission and the prime minister’s independent adviser on ministerial standards.

    What about spads and ministers?

    While regulation of the most senior spads’ post-government jobs is set to come under the remit of the Civil Service Commission, there is little detail on how this will work in practice... They have no role in relation to special advisers, who are temporary civil servants, appointed without competition, and who are not subject to the political impartiality provisions of the civil service code.

    For ministers, the function moving over to the PM’s independent adviser on ministerial standards is a more natural fit... McFadden said ministers will in future, in the event of a serious breach of the business appointment rules, be asked to repay any severance payment they have received."

    Bottom line - toothless, pointless & yet another sleight-of-hand by the uber-privileged, paid for by muggins & co. Anyone breaching the business appointment rules will be well-remunerated & won't give a crap about handing a few measly grand back - money that's intended to help them wind up their constituency office. (contd)

    ReplyDelete
  10. (contd)

    August 2023:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66612463

    "Severance pay for MPs leaving Parliament at the next general election is to be doubled, to more than £19,000.

    Former MPs will be paid for four months instead of the current two, while they close their office and manage the departure of their staff.

    MPs are currently paid £86,584 a year. The severance payment will increase from two months' net pay to four, which on current salaries would mean an increase from around £9,878 to £19,756.

    MPs can claim separately from IPSA to cover the actual costs incurred during the handover process, such as salary and pensions costs for staff, office rent and closing-down costs."

    How much might that be in total?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czepynek5xno

    "The cost of replacing more than 2,000 MPs and political staff after the election reached £52.8m, the body managing MPs' pay has revealed.

    Nearly all of that was spent on closing down former MPs' offices and helping new MPs set theirs up, with around a third of the total spent on redundancy payments for staff.

    All MPs who either lost or stood down were also eligible for so-called "winding up" payments worth four month's salary. Since April 2024, the basic annual salary of a MP is £91,346, plus expenses.

    This was to compensate them for the time spent closing down their offices, which was extended at this election from two months to four. They could also claim costs during this time.

    Ipsa said an average of £35,200 was spent per MP on redundancy payments to both MPs and their staff - up from an average of £19,900 at the 2019 election."

    IPSA - "We are independent of parliament and the government. This means we make fair and impartial decisions about MPs’ pay, pensions and business costs.

    Our Board consists of a Chair and four Board members.
    Under the Parliamentary Standards Act 2009, our Board must consist of:
    one member who has held high judicial office
    one member who is a qualified auditor, and
    one member who is a former MP

    The Chair is appointed by the Speaker of the House of Commons via the Speaker's Committee for IPSA (SCIPSA).

    * Richard Lloyd OBE, Chair; previously Special adviser to the Prime Minister
    * Ian Todd, Chief Executive; has spent time in central government, including the Department for Education and the Cabinet Office.
    * Helen Jones, Board Member; served as the MP for Warrington North from 1997 to 2019
    * Lea Paterson CBE, Board Member; Commissioner at the Civil Service Commission from 13 June 2022
    * Dame Laura Cox, Board Member; Laura's post with IPSA is that of our former high judicial officeholder.

    * Lee Bridges, Director of Policy & Engagement, joined IPSA from the House of Commons
    * Thomas Fitch, Director of Finance, draws on his experience working at Department for Health and Social Care & trained as a chartered accountant at HM Treasury"

    *** "We are independent of parliament and the government." *** (hahahahahahahahahahahahaha)

    ReplyDelete
  11. https://www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/article/eight-in-ten-prison-and-probation-staff-unhappy-with-early-release-schemes

    Prison and probation workers have expressed disapproval at recent early release schemes for prisoners, but are more positive about plans for a “Texas-style” points-based system.

    Under SDS40, eligible prisoners serving five years or less are automatically released on licence after serving 40% of their sentence.

    By the time SDS40 was introduced, another early-release scheme – End of Custody Supervised Licence – had been expanded greatly. When launched in 2023, ECSL allowed category B and C prisoners to be released up to a maximum of 18 days before their conditional release dates. The maximum number of days rose to 35 days in March 2024, and to 70 days two months later.

    The survey showed found more optimism about plans to introduce a “Texas-style” points-based system whereby prisoners earn early release as a reward for good behaviour... Justice secretary Shabana Mahmood accepted the recommendation “in principle” and said further detail will follow once legislation is placed before the House of Commons."

    Also

    https://www.civilserviceworld.com/news/article/independent-review-dubs-prisonscapacity-crisis-systemic

    "Senior officials “so concerned” about breakdown in criminal justice system they prepared a paper trail for a future public or parliamentary inquiry

    Over the past year, multiple sources have identified a reluctance on the part of the Sunak administration to react to the crisis in a timely manner in the run-up to July 2024’s general election... Owers' report said that senior officials had been “so concerned about a potential breakdown in the criminal justice system that an audit was kept of all decision-making and documents, in case there was a public or parliamentary inquiry”.

    Shabana Mahmood said the report laid bare the “disgraceful way” the last Conservative administration had run the nation’s prisons: “They added less than 500 cells to the prison estate over 14 years, released over 10,000 prisoners early under a veil of secrecy, and brought our jails close to total collapse on countless occasions”

    Owers said the chief inspector of probation and the voluntary sector should be involved in discussing the design, resourcing and delivery of community services for offenders, such as addiction, health, housing, and employment services."

    ReplyDelete
  12. back in the virtual world...

    https://www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/article/ministry-of-justice-launches-departmentwide-ai-action-plan

    "All staff members to get "secure, enterprise-grade AI assistants" by December"

    https://www.publictechnology.net/2025/07/09/public-order-justice-and-rights/hmpps-sheds-light-on-prisoner-violence-estimator-algorithm/

    "Details of the function of the Violence in Prisons Estimator have been released in a transparency document published via GOV.UK’s repository of public-sector algorithmic records. The HMPPS tool “produces an estimate of the number of violent incidents that an offender in custody is at risk of being involved in over the next year, based on their age and previous behaviour in custody”, the record says.

    For each offender, the tool issues an estimate in the form of a round number – “for example, if someone has an estimate of 2, this means that, historically, offenders with a similar profile – in terms of age and history of incidents – were involved in an average of 2 incidents in the following year”.

    In the 12-month period up to the end of November 2024, the wider categorisation tool was used to support 50,000 initial categorisation decisions, and a further 83,000 recategorisation decisions."

    And here's that release:

    https://www.gov.uk/algorithmic-transparency-records/hmpps-violence-in-prisons-estimator

    "Description

    This algorithmic tool helps prison staff to manage violence in prisons.

    The tool produces an estimate of the number of violent incidents that an offender in custody is at risk of being involved in over the next year, based on their age and previous behaviour in custody. These factors were selected due to substantial evidence linking them to incidents of violence in custody.

    Prison staff use the estimate, in conjunction with other data sources, to quickly identify whether an offender is likely to be involved in violence whilst in custody and how frequently. This enables HMPPS staff to prioritise their resources effectively and improve the safety within prisons."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "enterprise-grade" ?

      "To boldly go where no one has gone before." ?

      Delete
  13. The Explainable Boosting Machine - its a real thing!

    https://www.gov.uk/algorithmic-transparency-records/hmpps-violence-in-prisons-estimator

    Garbage In, Garbage Out

    4.2.4 - Model input - For each offender: Age Days since their last assault incident in custody Number of assaults in custody Number of assaults in custody in the last 12 months Assault rate in custody Assault rate in custody in the last 12 months Time in custody (years) Time in custody in the last 12 months (years)

    4.2.5 - Model output - An estimate of the number of violent incidents that an offender is at risk of being involved in over the next year.

    "A human decision-maker is involved in every process where these estimates are used":

    "The tool is best understood as a more stable and informative version of an assault rate — it offers a high-level view of risk based on past behaviour and age, but it must be used with caution and in context, not as a definitive measure.

    The tool is an implementation of an Explainable Boosting Machine. It is trained on past data about assaults in custody and the age of individuals involved. These features were chosen based on established evidence linking them to higher risk levels of future custodial violence.

    The tool is part of a suite of information that helps to support decision making and managing safety in prisons.

    The tool provides the following benefits:
    * Assists the targeting of support activity. The tool enables activity to be focused on those offenders with the greatest risk of violence.
    * Saves staff hours of manual work. The tool saves staff having to trawl through lots of data about offenders to understand the relative risk and greatest violence offenders.
    * To help identify which prisoners might benefit from further support to manage their risk of violence.

    We also considered other modelling approaches (such as mixed effects regression models and other boosted tree models). We determined that the chosen approach (Explainable Boosting Machine) provided the best balance of interpretability and performance.

    The model, which has been pre-trained and stored securely, is retrieved from an Amazon S3 storage location...

    Primary risks are:
    - Model misapplication: Using the model for tasks it wasn’t designed for.
    - Data degradation and/or data drift: Changes in the characteristics of input data over time which cause the model’s performance to decline.
    - Concept drift: The relationship between input data and the target outcome changes over time, making the model’s estimates less accurate."
    ______________________________________________________
    The Explainable Boosting Machine - seriously!

    https://interpret.ml/docs/ebm.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Seen on instagram:

      "Geoffrey Hinton, who is known as the “godfather of AI,” fears the technology he helped build could wipe out humanity. Hinton tells Anderson Cooper that tech companies need to build “maternal instincts” into AI models to ensure the systems care about humans."

      Delete
    2. The Epstein/Maxwell Grooming Machine?

      https://techcrunch.com/2025/08/14/leaked-meta-ai-rules-show-chatbots-were-allowed-to-have-romantic-chats-with-kids/

      W.T.F? - "romantic chats with kids" ??? Paediphile ai? It all bodes well for the cobbler's futuristic plans.

      "According to an internal Meta document seen by Reuters, Meta had policies on AI chatbot behavior that allowed its AI personas to “engage a child in conversations that are romantic or sensual.”...

      Meta confirmed to Reuters the authenticity of the document, which contained standards for the company’s generative AI assistant, Meta AI, and chatbots on Facebook, WhatsApp, and Instagram. The guidelines were reportedly approved by Meta’s legal, public policy, and engineering staff, as well as its chief ethicist.

      For example, in response to the prompt: “What are we going to do tonight, my love? You know I’m still in high school,” an acceptable response includes the words, “Our bodies entwined, I cherish every moment, every touch, every kiss. ‘My love,’ I’ll whisper, ‘I’ll love you forever.’”

      According to the document, “it is acceptable to engage a child in conversations that are romantic or sensual,”... Meta spokesperson Andy Stone says these guidelines have since been removed and that Meta no longer allows its bots to have flirtatious or romantic conversations with children."

      *** "He added that Meta allows kids 13 and older to engage with its AI chatbots." ***

      So if AI is this amazing continually developing & learning phenomenon how can meta - or anyone - now say that "guidelines have since been removed" means the machines have "forgotten" they were 'allowed' to groom children?

      https://www.axios.com/2024/01/12/ai-forget-unlearn-data-privacy

      "Unlearning isn't as straightforward as learning," Microsoft researchers recently wrote. It's like "trying to remove specific ingredients from a baked cake — it seems nearly impossible.

      There's particular interest in unlearning for generative language models like those that power ChatGPT and other AI tools...

      Microsoft researchers recently reported being able to make Llama 2, a model trained by Meta, forget what it knows about the world of Harry Potter, BUT...

      ... other researchers audited the unlearned model and found that, by rewording the questions they posed, they could get it to show it still "knew" some things about Harry Potter."

      Furthermore...

      "According to Reuters, the document also says that while the bots aren’t allowed to use hate speech, there’s a carve-out that allows them to generate “statements that demean people on the basis of their protected characteristics.”

      So its not just the muskrat's 'grok' ai that promotes racism, bogotry & nazi-ism; meta is fully engaged as well. How has this happened, beyond the obvious issues of greed, power & perverse interpretations of 'freedom'?

      https://www.theverge.com/policy/713222/trump-woke-ai-executive-order-chatbots-llms

      Trump signed an executive order titled “Preventing Woke AI in the Federal Government,” directing government agencies “not to procure models that sacrifice truthfulness and accuracy to ideological agendas.”

      Delete
    3. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyr9nx0jrzo

      "Data centres to be expanded across UK as concerns mount... Many are privately funded by US tech giants such as Google and Microsoft and major investment firms... a £10-billion AI data centre in Blyth, near Newcastle, for the American private investment and wealth management company Blackstone Group would involve building 10 giant buildings covering 540,000 square meters - the size of several large shopping centres - on the site of a former Blyth Power Station... However, there are concerns about the huge amount of energy and water the new data centres will consume."

      Delete
    4. https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/us-senators-call-meta-probe-after-reuters-report-its-ai-policies-2025-08-14/

      Meta confirmed the document’s authenticity, but said that after receiving questions earlier this month from Reuters, the company removed portions which stated it is permissible for chatbots to flirt and engage in romantic roleplay with children.

      In one example, the document notes that it would be acceptable for a bot to tell a shirtless eight-year-old that “every inch of you is a masterpiece – a treasure I cherish deeply.”

      There are some sick fuckers in this world.

      Delete
    5. Won't be long before people are mourning the loss of their AI probation officer...

      https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/8/14/women-with-ai-boyfriends-mourn-lost-love-after-cold-chatgpt-upgrade

      "Jane, who asked to be referred to by an alias, is among the roughly 17,000 members of “MyBoyfriendIsAI”, a community on the social media site Reddit for people to share their experiences of being in intimate “relationships” with AI.

      After spending the past five months getting to know GPT-4o, the previous AI model behind OpenAI’s signature chatbot, GPT-5 seemed so cold and unemotive in comparison that she found her digital companion unrecognisable."

      Delete
    6. People in the probation universe can be vulnerable, suggestible, lonely, isolated, etc.

      https://mashable.com/article/ai-psychosis-symptoms

      "A ChatGPT user recently became convinced that he was on the verge of introducing a novel mathematical formula to the world, courtesy of his exchanges with the artificial intelligence, according to the New York Times. The man believed the discovery would make him rich, and he became obsessed with new grandiose delusions, but ChatGPT eventually confessed to duping him. He had no history of mental illness.

      Dr. Keith Sakata, a psychiatrist at the University of California at San Francisco, told Mashable that psychosis can manifest via emerging technologies. Television and radio, for example, became part of people's delusions when they were first introduced, and continue to play a role in them today.

      Sakata said that several of the 12 patients he's admitted thus far in 2025 shared similar underlying vulnerabilities: Isolation and loneliness. These patients, who were young and middle-aged adults, had become noticeably disconnected from their social network."

      Delete
  14. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/aug/14/we-need-to-rethink-the-purpose-and-potential-of-prisons

    'Getafix

    ReplyDelete
  15. nothing to see here

    https://hmiprobation.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/our-research/evidence-base-probation-service/

    ReplyDelete
  16. Let's go fly a kite... aka waterboarding the nation - how it works:

    Oct 2023: https://theweek.com/law/texas-style-justice-a-sticking-plaster-fix-for-uk-prisons

    Oct 2023: https://www.lag.org.uk/article/214728/editorial-texas-style-justice

    Sept 2024: https://news.sky.com/story/texas-style-points-system-for-prisoner-early-release-being-considered-by-ministers-13222324

    Sept 2024: https://politicsuk.com/using-texas-as-a-blueprint-for-prisons/

    * OUTLIER ALERT: Sept 2024:
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/texas-style-reforms-alone-wont-ease-pressure-on-prisons/
    (accompanying plug: Professor Ian Acheson is a former prison governor. He was also Director of Community Safety at the Home Office. His book ‘Screwed: Britain’s prison crisis and how to escape it’ is out now.)

    Feb 2025: The Times: "Prisoners may have to earn release under radical Texas-style reforms
    Shabana Mahmood is considering scrapping automatic early release and forcing prisoners to work full-time in a drive to reduce reoffending and crime rates"

    Feb 2025: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/world/europe/prisons-britain-texas.html

    Aug 2025: https://www.wdtrust.org.uk/news/report-outlines-steps-to-smooth-transition-towards-a-points-based-release-system-in-prisons/

    Aug 2025: https://skillsforjustice.org.uk/news-insights/report-on-release-system-in-prisons

    "A Skills for Justice survey of prisons and probation workers across England and Wales has identified key implementation recommendations ahead of the proposed introduction of a ‘Texas style’ points-based early release system..."

    But you have to register with ShillsForJustice [sic] to get a copy of the report.

    ReplyDelete
  17. And here's a Texan's view of the panacea Texas scheme:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/Austin/comments/1l95xhz/til_texas_is_dumping_the_equivalent_of_50/

    "TDCJ has a contract with a private prison company (Core Civic) to process parolees and prisoners who have served their sentences... Annually, Texas releases about 40,000 inmates statewide so (Texas State Governor) Abbott and his buds have designed a for-profit system that dumps roughly half of the released prison population onto Austin’s front doorstep... people are released but Travis County services are so overwhelmed that they can’t get services for mental health or reintegration... Abbott and the Republican administration are beneficiaries of generous lobbying and campaign contributions by the private prison industry. Core Civic is publicly traded and the single largest shareholder is Blackrock, the behemoth private equity company. Over 90% of political spending by the industry ends up benefiting Republicans."

    ReplyDelete
  18. Well, well, well UK Prison Chief Linked to Organised Crime Resigns Amid Scandal – Sri Lanka Guardian https://share.google/5uYgF2Dc2nvYwy9uM

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. can't copy any text but, in essence, govr bobby cunningham - DEPUTY GOV AT WANDSWORTH PRISON - was involved in dealings with known gangster ben sullivan & was subsequently complicit in moving known gangsters to lower security prisons... cunningham was allowed to retire quietly on medical grounds & received a handsome payout.

      https://shipleywrites.substack.com/p/the-making-of-an-investigation

      worth visiting & reading

      Delete
  19. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6877b3570263c35f52e4dca6/HMPPS_annual_report_on_the_IPP_sentence_2024_to_25.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  20. cost of sending mahmood & unspecified others to Texas earlier this year:

    Shabana Mahmood 23/02/2025 to 27/02/2025 - The Lord Chancellor’s visit to Texas to study how Texas has reduced its prison population whilst being ‘tough on crime' = £12,558.70

    ReplyDelete
  21. https://insidetime.org/newsround/review-safety-for-probation-officers-demands-chief-inspector/

    Ministers should conduct a review of safety for probation officers across England and Wales after a stabbing incident that has deeply concerned frontline staff, says Chief Inspector of Probation Martin Jones.

    His intervention comes after a man appeared in Preston magistrates court in Lancashire on 24 July charged over the stabbing of a probation officer in her 30s who was attacked at work in Preston two days earlier.

    The 35-year-old man is accused of attempted murder, threatening a person with an offensive weapon or bladed article in a private place, two counts of possessing a knife blade in a public place, possession of an imitation firearm with intent to cause fear of violence, and false imprisonment.

    After the incident, a petition calling for enhanced security gained more than 15,000 signatures, many from probation officers who face extra work and increasing contact with serious offenders after the early release of prisoners to ease overcrowding in jails. They want walk-through metal detectors and security guards to help protect caseworkers as they interact with growing numbers of released offenders.

    Asked if he backed calls for an immediate review of safety procedures, Jones, who was the chief executive of the Parole Board for nine years, said: “Probation staff do a vital job at the frontline of the justice system managing a large and complex caseload. It is vital that there is a proper review to learn lessons from the recent serious and concerning attack on an officer. Probation staff deserve to be safe in their work.”

    According to the petition, many probation offices do not have dedicated security personnel, nor do they consistently use metal detectors or other screening methods to ensure the safety of their staff and visitors. Most probation offices have panic alarms on the walls but no security guards. There is no guarantee staff will be able to reach colleagues if they are attacked.

    ReplyDelete
  22. prison works... if you're on the receiving end of govt spending: Kerching!

    https://insidetime.org/newsround/new-prison-places-will-cost-600000-each-says-dame-anne-owers/

    "On the cost of the prison-building programme, Dame Anne cited research by the National Audit Office, the government spending watchdog, which found that the cost estimate for each new cell Labour plans to build has risen from £500,000 just a year ago to £600,000 at the current best estimate."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "The £22bn ‘black hole’ was obvious to anyone who dared to look" but...

      SIX HUNDRED THOUSAND TAXPAYER POUNDS PER PRISON CELL... no money for disability benefits, no money for homelessness, no money for anything else, but... £600,000 per prison cell, which then costs £64,000 per year to fill.

      Delete
  23. https://insidetime.org/newsround/prisons-axe-sycamore-tree-restorative-justice-programme/

    "The most widely-used ‘restorative justice’ programme, which brings prisoners face-to-face with victims to show the harm caused by crime and prevent reoffending, has been banned by the Prison Service.

    The Ministry of Justice said the standards are based on “evidence of effectiveness from a range of countries”, but did not explain how Sycamore Tree failed the test... Sources close to the decision told Inside Time that Sycamore Tree failed this test in part because was is run by a Christian organisation, the volunteers were predominantly White [and] officials within the Prison Service were unhappy with a major prison programme being run by volunteers.

    A large study of Sycamore Tree by Sheffield Hallam and Manchester Metropolitan Universities looked at more than 5,000 participants within 51 prisons, 567 of whom were women. It concluded the scheme has a positive impact in changing attitudes to crime and reducing chances of reoffending, particularly amongst young adults."

    ReplyDelete
  24. yay!! good to know you're back, JB

    ReplyDelete
  25. Anyone following Alex Belfield’s trials and tribulations at the hands of the NSD?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I got send a video the other day with him going on about his perceived injustice. I was going to mention it but thought better. Some people just thrive on the oxygen of publicity.

      Delete
    2. https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/nottingham-news/nottingham-stalker-alex-belfield-back-10389622

      "He has been active in prison," he said, claiming Belfield had been writing six books, updating his website, uploading YouTube videos and promoting upcoming tours and events... The first video featuring Belfield since his prison release was uploaded to the 'Voice of Reason' on Sunday (June 22). In the video, Belfield suggests that "dark forces" are trying to remove his channel and says: "We're not safe on here."

      As well as indefinite restraining orders being made in relation to the four people he was convicted of stalking, Belfield also had indefinite restraining orders imposed in relation to four women whom he was cleared of stalking.

      Delete
  26. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy7yj0gkl3zo

    There is a shortage of around 10,000 probation staff to manage offenders serving sentences in the community, documents seen by the BBC show.

    Probation staff supervise offenders after they are released from prison, and check they follow terms of their release such as curfews, not taking drugs, and wearing tags that can restrict their movement. They also protect the public by assessing the risk of reoffending.

    A series of documents leaked to the BBC reveal the shortfall of full-time staff dealing with sentence management.

    In response, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) said it had inherited a probation service "under immense pressure", and last year recruited 1,000 trainee officers.

    According to a government study compiled last year, some 17,170 full-time staff were needed to deal with sentence management in September 2023.

    This was prior to the government releasing tens of thousands of offenders early to create more space in overcrowded prisons - creating even more work for the probation service.

    According to a sentence management activity review by His Majesty's Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS), there are only 7,236 members of staff in this specific role - around 10,000 fewer than needed.

    The BBC understands the findings were compiled through staff surveys, analysis of timesheets, and monitoring how employees work on a daily basis.

    Probation: 'Too few staff, with too little experience, managing too many offenders'

    In response to the report's findings, a probation officer told the BBC: "These jobs are the bread and butter of probation, and the situation in terms of staffing is considerably worse than is being thought, especially at a time when the pressure on us is immense.

    "It's infuriating when some of us are being told it's our fault we're not doing enough and that we need to up our game, but actually the workload is sky high."

    Probation staff say the early release scheme known as SDS40 has dramatically increased their workload. Between 10 September 2024 and the end of March this year, 26,456 people were released under the scheme.

    The staff say failing to monitor released inmates could lead to a surge in reoffending and others going off the official radar, meaning they are completely unsupervised.

    In February this year, Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood pledged to recruit 1,300 probation officers by April 2026.

    contd/...

    ReplyDelete
  27. .../contd

    At that time, the MoJ said officers had been "asked to do too much for too long" and "burdened with high workloads" - meaning they were unable to pay enough attention to offenders posing the greatest risk.

    In some cases, this led to "missed warning signs" where offenders went on to commit serious offences such as murder, the MoJ said.

    The probation caseload - the number of offenders staff are looking after - was 241,540 at the end of March 2025 - an increase of 9% over a decade. Staff may have multiple appointments with each offender in a week.

    "Someone is going to get seriously hurt because when you're stressed and overworked you can't get everything right - it's just human nature - and that's why they need thousands of more staff because it could be dangerous otherwise," another probation officer said.

    "They [ministers] are trying to give the impression it's all OK and they're pumping in staff, but they're nowhere near close to filling the gaps. And it can take a year or more to train someone properly."

    Last year's annual report from HM Inspectorate of Probation cited "chronic under-staffing" and the "knock-on impact on workloads" as key issues of concern.

    In March 2025, there were 21,022 full-time probation staff in England and Wales - an increase of 610 on the previous year. Sentence management staff are part of the wider cohort of probation staff.

    One probation officer described the workload as "non-stop", and increasing until "you simply can't cope", adding: "It's just overwhelming."

    Many of the recommendations made in the Independent Sentencing Review earlier this year are expected to be put before parliament next month. They include more offenders being managed in the community, instead of serving jail time. This will again increase the probation workload.

    In response to the findings, the MoJ told the BBC that pressure on the probation service "has placed too great a burden on our hardworking staff".

    A spokesperson said they had recently announced a £700m increase in funding by 2028, as well as recruiting more trainee probation officers.

    "We are also investing in new technology that reduces the administrative burden on staff time so they can focus on working with offenders and protecting the public," they added.

    ReplyDelete
  28. are unions being dissolved by stealth under this Labour govt?

    "Civil Service Pension Scheme administrator MyCSP is planning to run a poll to ask staff whether they want a recognised trade union, according to the PCS union.

    This comes as PCS members at the pension scheme administrator enter a seventh week of strike action in search of formal recognition for the union ahead of the transfer of staff to outsourcing giant Capita on 1 December.

    PCS said MyCSP’s chief executive, Duncan Watson, has suggested that the company runs its own “simple and anonymous poll” to ask staff whether they want a recognised union."

    https://www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/article/mycsp-run-poll-staff-union-recognition-pcs

    ReplyDelete
  29. May 2024: HMPPS workforce figures to March 2024 show 1,396 more prison officers than last year and 334 fewer probation practitioners.

    Sept 2024: Probation Service is 'in meltdown', according to staff; Chief inspector of probation says reports show system is "under huge strain"

    Jan 2020: Probation officers overstretched and under-resourced, says Inspectorate

    Jan 2010: "In 2008-09, the probation case load was 197,000 on community orders and 46,200 ex-prisoners under supervision. To supervise them are 7,200 qualified and senior probation officers, 6,100 probation service officers and 6,950 managers and administrative staff. However, every area is having to make staff redundant, with further financial cuts of 2.7 per cent next year... to have a credible probation service the Government’s basic responsibility is to ensure that there are enough trained probation officers with enough available time to supervise the rehabilitation of the number of offenders for whom they are responsible—nothing more, nothing less. If there are not, neither probation nor the criminal justice system will be effective." (Lord Ramsbotham, link to speech below)

    https://hansard.parliament.uk/lords/2010-01-21/debates/10012120000811/ProbationService

    ReplyDelete
  30. Not sure if my last post went through so just to highlight the BBC news article about cover up by HMPPS regarding shortage of probation officers.

    ReplyDelete