Tone deaf doesn’t even begin to cover it. The MoJ and HMPPS simply don’t listen to their staff. The people designing policies and making the big decisions are so far removed from the frontline it’s almost laughable. My head in hands in despair I’ve just watched the news about deporting foreign national prisoners, electronic tags, and ‘tougher’ unpaid work, all to achieve the only thing they seem to care about: reducing prison overcrowding. They have no insight into the causes of offending and imprisonment. Just as with the all these probation officer recruitment campaigns peppered with young white middle-class female graduates claiming to ‘make a difference’ or represent diverse communities, it’s so out of touch they might as well rip up the half-baked, back-of-a-fag-packet blueprints, wait for ChatGPT-5, and just do what the computer says. Forget waiting for “probation leaders” to say anything above the parapet.
All we ever ask for is simple: fairer pay, better access to support services for the ‘PiPs’ and ‘PoPs’, legislation to make it happen, give probation some credibility instead of running it into the ground as an overflow tank for the prison service, and to stop being forced into pointless, performance-driven, civil service tick-box practices that don’t work.
There’s been a lot on here recently about staff-led initiatives and recommendations, but the reality is stark no matter what we think, feel or say. I came across this comment on one of the recent Napo articles by a fellow probation officer, and it sums it up where we are perfectly.
“…it will likely be overlooked by probation services, HMPPS, and much of the academic establishment.”
******
I’ve got nothing against white, middle-class females or graduates training as POs, but we do need a broader range of backgrounds, experiences, and skills. Right now, everyone tends to look and think the same. At 26, fresh out of university, how much real insight can most have into offending or the causes of crime? Selling probation as a “career protecting the public while supporting rehabilitation” doesn’t help either, it’s vague to the point of meaning very little.******
The only positive of being a civil servant is that you can transfer across to another department relatively easily. Have a look on Civil Service Jobs for example. Better pay, work only contracted hours, proper meal breaks etc. Goodwill is dead, it is a one way street. Look after yourself and get out!******
All I can see happening from these proposals is the recall rate rocketing, which will hardly ease the pressures on the prison population. There is just TOO MANY PEOPLE being shoved through the probation service. Increasing the probation capacity is not going to reduce the prison population. The focus needs to be about how best remove people from the criminal justice revolving door system, and not looking at how best to accommodate them within it.******
And that’s exactly why they need to listen to the right people, whether the focus is on getting people out of the criminal justice revolving door, finding better ways to accommodate them within it, or preventing them from entering it in the first place.I’m sick to death of seeing people who haven’t been near a probation office or held a caseload in years, if ever, dictating, designing, and inspecting what probation does. It’s demoralising for those that are there every day, making them feel frustrated and inadequate.
Many are proud to be probation officers, working daily alongside those on probation, with colleagues and services in every imaginable context. Real probation work. Real challenges.
Those delivering day in, day out deserve support, not endless criticism or the constant barrage of being done to. They don’t need people far removed from the frontline endlessly telling them what to do, constantly rewriting the rules, and never once genuinely asking for, let alone using, the insight of those actually doing the job.
Probation officers are all aiming for the same thing: helping people change for the better, overcome struggles, and live offence-free lives. It should be a network of encouragement and collaboration, not a hierarchy of managers and ministers in their ivory towers, academics in their cosy libraries, think-tanks detached from reality, or even certain ex-offenders with lived experience who’d rather take shots at probation officers than try to understand what’s really happening.
Because in the end, experience on the ground matters just as much as what’s on paper. I remember when probation was full of people who had a voice and spoke for probation, some were legendary, challenging senior management and ministers alike. Until we get back to that, until we have a less demoralised or docile workforce, until we have genuine leaders who know what probation is, or should be, until those in charge truly listen to the frontline, then nothing will really change. Because if we did, much of these policies wouldn’t pass quality control.
*****
A couple of observations if I may, first the inclusion of sex offenders is very sensible as that cohort has one of the lowest recividism rates. You can't see past your own prejudices when it comes to SO's and using them to appeal to public sympathy just stokes that prejudice further.Second, the rate of recalls, which have reached absurd levels, was always going to come back to bite your backsides. The fact that you use tools to assess risk that by your own admission are all but useless suggests probation got many of those decisions wrong, the majority of them in fact.
I don't blame probation for this per se, it's on the politicians wanting to appear 'tuff on crime innit' but I also accept some will have abused that power because some always will.
*****
As a VLO I absolutely share these concerns. I’ve got 5 repeat DA perpetrators due out on 2nd September - they are SFOs waiting to happen. Victims have been extremely hard hit with all the chaos over the past 18 months with all the emphasis on reducing the prison population. I’ve never known a worse time.
With the proposals to immediately remove FNOs, there will be further upset, anger, devastation, and disillusionment in the CJS. Victims, quite rightly, expect offenders to serve their punishment in prison when a custodial sentence is passed. They’re often upset enough all ready with the current arrangements where they can be released early, back to their own countries as free men/women. This can include rapists, child abuses and death by dangerous driving. I don’t think the public have any understanding that deported offenders don’t typically serve their punishment/remainder of their sentences in their home country. Changing the legislation to allow immediate deportation is a huge slap in the face for victims, having gone through the stress and upset of a police investigation and court process - all the told that their offender will simply be returned home. I can’t help but feel that this new legislation will leave the door wide open for FNOs to come to this country with the intention of offending, knowing that IF they are caught they’re just likely to be put on a flight home.
The MoJ has completely lost all sight of putting victims at the heart of the CJS.
With the proposals to immediately remove FNOs, there will be further upset, anger, devastation, and disillusionment in the CJS. Victims, quite rightly, expect offenders to serve their punishment in prison when a custodial sentence is passed. They’re often upset enough all ready with the current arrangements where they can be released early, back to their own countries as free men/women. This can include rapists, child abuses and death by dangerous driving. I don’t think the public have any understanding that deported offenders don’t typically serve their punishment/remainder of their sentences in their home country. Changing the legislation to allow immediate deportation is a huge slap in the face for victims, having gone through the stress and upset of a police investigation and court process - all the told that their offender will simply be returned home. I can’t help but feel that this new legislation will leave the door wide open for FNOs to come to this country with the intention of offending, knowing that IF they are caught they’re just likely to be put on a flight home.
The MoJ has completely lost all sight of putting victims at the heart of the CJS.
*****
It has been a some years since I last visited Probation Matters Blogspot. I was a regular contributor back when Probation had been largely privatised, a mistake of such enormity I am surprised noone has ever really been held to account. Some points to touch upon that struck me from reading some of the comments. OASys still an issue. Pay still an issue. Prison overcrowding still an issue. Probation workloads still an issue. Diversity and background of Probation staff still an issue. And so on. It really was better in the past as I remember, particularly protected workloads. There was a time when OASys was imagined as a tool to help probation professionals and not something that consumed an unsustainable and huge amount of time such that it almost became the job itself.
Regards pay, it looks to me that Probation pay suffered a supercharged level of austerity measure and then some. The political ramping up of tough on crime message, always popular when looking to garner some votes, is now being supercharged by new kids on the block Reform. Other parties will follow and prison population and early release schemes will doubtless increase accordingly. Regards professional diversity, I became a Trainee Probation Officer, a rare male recruit, around the millennium without a first degree just bags of committment and some ability. I was ever grateful for the opportunity and did not disappoint, by my own say I did some very good work in MY local community. Keep on keeping on battling for your profession, it really matters. All the best.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/aug/10/i-experienced-britains-prisons-crisis-first-hand-but-the-owers-review-gives-me-hope
ReplyDeleteAnne Owers’ damning review of the prison capacity crisis should serve as a watershed moment for criminal justice policy in this country (Prison system was days from collapse three times under Sunak, review finds, 5 August). As someone who spent time in prison in 2017, and having now worked for a prison charity for four years, I have witnessed first-hand the “permacrisis” she describes.
DeleteThe review contains many revelations as to the state of the system. The worst in my eyes is the testimony of prison staff who said that, rather than “developing relationships with prisoners to help them progress … they were in the office, checking and re-checking release dates”. This perfectly sums up the problem: when capacity pressures force us to treat people as mere numbers to be shuffled around the system, we abandon any pretence of rehabilitation.
But the review shows there is hope. The 90% reduction in youth custody over two decades proves that community-based prevention works. The youth justice system’s multi-agency approach, involving health, education, social services and families, has achieved what our adult system cannot: actually reducing offending.
Prison reform campaigners are often accused of being “soft on crime”. But there is nothing soft about wanting a system that actually works – one that makes communities safer rather than simply warehousing problems. The current system fails victims, fails offenders, and fails taxpayers. Dame Anne has given us a roadmap out of this crisis. The question is whether our political leaders have the courage to follow it.
James Stoddart
Coordinator, The Oswin Project
Labour or Reform MP?
ReplyDelete"Comin' over 'ere an' taking our prison places..."
Rosie May Wrighting is a former fashion buyer & figure skater who has served as Member of Parliament for Kettering since 2024. Here she is discussing Labour’s announcement granting new powers for the immediate deportation of foreign national offenders.
“…These were people who were going to be deported anyway, but it means we can do it earlier saving taxpayers’ money… we literally came into Downing Street and had a tally on the wall of how many prison places were left, like, in the UK, we need these spaces in our prisons and, erm, its not right that foreign criminals are taking up space in our prisons, costing our taxpayers money, and, they should be returned to their country of origin…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002gzrd
approx. 30 mins in
"The MoJ has completely lost all sight of putting victims at the heart of the CJS."
ReplyDeleteyep, but that happened when they dumped victim work on already over-stretched probation staff: "The Criminal Justice and Court Services Act (2000) placed victim contact work on a legislative footing for probation services."
Prior to this there was 'victim contact' work, but it was limited in scope: "On 22 February 1990, European Victims’ Day, the Home Secretary announced the ‘Victim’s Charter’, a document which sets out the rights and expectations of people who have become the victims of crime."
There was a review in 2001:
"The role of the National Probation Service in
post conviction work with victims (or their
families) of serious offenders has been
reviewed and further improvements to the
service are in hand. At present, the National
Probation Service begin working with victims
when the offender is sentenced to 4 years
imprisonment or more for a sexual or violent
offence. The Criminal Justice and Court
Services Act is reducing this period to 12
months or more from April 2001."
For "further improvements" read "even more work for probation staff".
https://hmiprobation.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/victim-work/
"The Government’s Victim Strategy (2018) included commitments for increased funding for services, easier opting-in to the Victim Contact Scheme, and improved training for Victim Liaison Officers.
Other key elements of probation victim work include restorative justice, facilitating mediation, and referring service users to victim awareness training.
Summary of the evidence
Services to victims
Victims often do not access services which may help them for several reasons:
lack of knowledge about available services
not wanting or believing they do not need victim services
lack of access to services
fear of re-victimisation, re-traumatisation, or blame by service providers
lack of eligibility for services.
A 2016 evidence review by the Victim Commissioner found that most victims were dissatisfied by the services provided."
I haven't yet found any meaningful piece about the conflict of interest issues raised by probation staff undertaking victim work; surely it ought to be a separate & independent organisation, albeit with a ready exchange of information to facilitate the victim work.
______________________________________________________
In general terms, nothing has changed for the better over the last couple of decades (or even longer), has it?
"The conclusion that one draws is that there has been a failure adequately to resource prison and probation services. Both services are ill equipped to deal with yet another reorganisation and further layers of bureaucracy. The projected national offender management service could be an organisational disaster" - Mr. Elfyn Llwyd (Meirionnydd Nant Conwy) (PC), National Offender Management Service HC Deb 17 March 2004 vol 419 cc71-93WH
Anon at 18.14.
ReplyDeleteVictims have no business at the heart of the CJS because they are not criminals, the clue is in the name. Victimology is destroying the ethos of probation whose purpose ought to be rehabilitation of offenders and prevention of future victims. Victims should recieve all the support and support they need and deserve outside the CJS.
The dangerous drift towards allowing victims a say in sentencing, and worse still, a say in what happens after a sentence is served more dangerous still. This will cause resentment and risk further SFO's. When the 'deterrent' is seen as worse than prison where is the incentive to change? You guys need to change course.
sox
Originally work with victims was supposed to come from the then new all purpose Local Authority Social Services Departments, following on from The Seebohm Report in 1968 that led to them starting after 1970 alongside CQSW training from 1972.
Deletehttps://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ministry-of-justice-conservative-wales-england-shabana-mahmood-b1242383.html
ReplyDeleteThe prison population of England and Wales has jumped to the highest number in nearly a year and is nearing record levels, despite the early release of tens of thousands of offenders, official figures show.
DeleteA total of 88,238 people were in jail as of Monday, up 231 on the previous week and a rise of more than 1,200 in the past two months, according to data published by the Ministry of Justice.
There are just 283 fewer prisoners now than the record high of 88,521 reached in September last year during the aftermath of the summer riots in towns and cities across the UK.
The spike comes despite Government efforts to ease overcrowding by freeing some 26,456 offenders early since last year.
The scheme was launched as an emergency measure in September, with eligible inmates serving more than five years released after serving only 40% of their fixed-term sentence, rather than the usual 50%.
Ministers have since announced further plans to free up space following a major independent review by former Conservative Lord Chancellor David Gauke.
When three out of four people being released are recalled, it's hardly surprising that prisons remain full.
DeleteIt makes no sense at all either when most of those recalled are subject to a fixed term 14 day period.
Recall is being used as a punitive measure rather then a mitigation against risk. It's prison centric thinking. If someone's in prison and is non compliant they get 7 days in the block. If someone is on probation and is non compliant they get 14 days back behind the wall. Recall is being used as a punishment and not for its intended purpose.
The more people that are shoved into the probation machine the greater the recall rate will be. More recalls equal more people in prison, its really not rocket science.
It really has become a "probation to prison pipeline" and the more people there are subjected to probation, the quicker that pipeline flows.
https://insidetime.org/newsround/for-every-four-releases-there-are-three-recalls/
'Getafix
75% Recall by probation - its professionally lazy, its often petty, its sometimes personal & spiteful (either by supervising officer on supervisee or manager against staff member*); but more importantly it causes significant damage to many being recalled in so many ways, e.g. trust, motivation, willingness to attempt to make changes, respect, mental health, loss of relationships, loss of housing, loss of employment... loss of life...
Delete* yes, let's be honest, it DOES happen - managers can & do enforce a recall decision on a case because they have a beef with a member of staff, seeing the recall decision as a means of imposing their authority &/or punishing the staff member (esp when a lot of work has been undertaken with a case).
As stated above, it is prison-centric thinking, command-&-control, JFDI, etc.
who needs probation 'skills' anymore? kempsall & clarke & others have finally perfected their ideal tool:
Delete"Prisons will use new tool called the 'AI violence predictor' to determine the threat posed by individuals in custody"
repost of Anonymous7 August 2025 at 10:17
https://insidetime.org/newsround/computer-says-criminal-as-government-launches-ai-violence-predictor/
This is so true the number of younger officers who take an action by one of their charges as personal is astonishing……..this is a deficit in their training,such as it is these days, I’m seeing good officers damaged early on by sloppy managerial approaches ( back covering)….when sometimes all that is required is a word…..managers and staff are so fearful of the Spanish Inquisition approach by the SFO team now that judgement has been made redundant ……
Deleteyouth custody data - how does it compare to adult prison populations?
ReplyDeleteApr 2015:
10-14 yrs - 50
aged 15 yrs - 117
aged 16 yrs - 297
aged 17 yrs - 535
aged 18 yrs & over - 86
TOT: 985
Apr 2020
aged 10-14 yrs - 22
aged 15 yrs - 72
aged 16 yrs - 178
aged 17 yrs - 392
aged 18 yrs & over - 85
TOT: 749
Apr 2025
aged 10-14 yrs - 18
aged 15 yrs - 37
aged 16 yrs - 111
aged 17 yrs - 217
aged 18 yrs & over - 86
TOT: 469
Oh... its more than halved.
Prisons estate overall:
Apr 2015 - 86,591 - not specifying any Youth Custody data
Apr 2020 - 81,124 - not specifying any Youth Custody data
Apr 2025 - 88,084 - incl 313 (?) in Youth Custody
Because youth justice services can write professional reports addressing trauma and needs as well as risk whilst probation writes 20 pages of diatribe about orgrs and recommend everyone gets locked up
ReplyDeleteShouting into the void here - how are other areas responding to the aftermath of Preston? In typical Probation back covering fashion we've been told we are not to see any offenders outside the building anymore (we have an outdoor seating area which is tucked away) as we cannot risk assess this, yet we can do home visits and sit in a 2x2 room... been directed to do some training on managing aggression which says to see people outside as a deescalation tool! They scramble so fast they can't even keep up with their own tripe...
ReplyDeleteIn Brum we've been reissued a spreadsheet on all the risk protocols and told to familiarise ourselves with it, so less than useless basically. I'd be better off printing it out, rolling it up and keeping it in my back pocket to beat the offenders off with it! Seeing them out in the fresh air is often the best way to develop a relationship with some of them.
Deletepickles admits acoba is a pile o' shyte
ReplyDeletehttps://www.civilserviceworld.com/in-depth/article/revolvingdoors-shakeup-how-will-acobas-abolition-affect-civil-servants-30640
"An overhaul of the post-government jobs system for former ministers, civil servants and special advisers has long been called for, and former Acoba chair Eric Pickles in June told MPs the regulator was “dead in the water, next to useless, utterly pointless and in need of reform”.
Acoba is set to be abolished on 13 October, with its functions transferring over to the Civil Service Commission and the prime minister’s independent adviser on ministerial standards.
What about spads and ministers?
While regulation of the most senior spads’ post-government jobs is set to come under the remit of the Civil Service Commission, there is little detail on how this will work in practice... They have no role in relation to special advisers, who are temporary civil servants, appointed without competition, and who are not subject to the political impartiality provisions of the civil service code.
For ministers, the function moving over to the PM’s independent adviser on ministerial standards is a more natural fit... McFadden said ministers will in future, in the event of a serious breach of the business appointment rules, be asked to repay any severance payment they have received."
Bottom line - toothless, pointless & yet another sleight-of-hand by the uber-privileged, paid for by muggins & co. Anyone breaching the business appointment rules will be well-remunerated & won't give a crap about handing a few measly grand back - money that's intended to help them wind up their constituency office. (contd)
(contd)
ReplyDeleteAugust 2023:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66612463
"Severance pay for MPs leaving Parliament at the next general election is to be doubled, to more than £19,000.
Former MPs will be paid for four months instead of the current two, while they close their office and manage the departure of their staff.
MPs are currently paid £86,584 a year. The severance payment will increase from two months' net pay to four, which on current salaries would mean an increase from around £9,878 to £19,756.
MPs can claim separately from IPSA to cover the actual costs incurred during the handover process, such as salary and pensions costs for staff, office rent and closing-down costs."
How much might that be in total?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czepynek5xno
"The cost of replacing more than 2,000 MPs and political staff after the election reached £52.8m, the body managing MPs' pay has revealed.
Nearly all of that was spent on closing down former MPs' offices and helping new MPs set theirs up, with around a third of the total spent on redundancy payments for staff.
All MPs who either lost or stood down were also eligible for so-called "winding up" payments worth four month's salary. Since April 2024, the basic annual salary of a MP is £91,346, plus expenses.
This was to compensate them for the time spent closing down their offices, which was extended at this election from two months to four. They could also claim costs during this time.
Ipsa said an average of £35,200 was spent per MP on redundancy payments to both MPs and their staff - up from an average of £19,900 at the 2019 election."
IPSA - "We are independent of parliament and the government. This means we make fair and impartial decisions about MPs’ pay, pensions and business costs.
Our Board consists of a Chair and four Board members.
Under the Parliamentary Standards Act 2009, our Board must consist of:
one member who has held high judicial office
one member who is a qualified auditor, and
one member who is a former MP
The Chair is appointed by the Speaker of the House of Commons via the Speaker's Committee for IPSA (SCIPSA).
* Richard Lloyd OBE, Chair; previously Special adviser to the Prime Minister
* Ian Todd, Chief Executive; has spent time in central government, including the Department for Education and the Cabinet Office.
* Helen Jones, Board Member; served as the MP for Warrington North from 1997 to 2019
* Lea Paterson CBE, Board Member; Commissioner at the Civil Service Commission from 13 June 2022
* Dame Laura Cox, Board Member; Laura's post with IPSA is that of our former high judicial officeholder.
* Lee Bridges, Director of Policy & Engagement, joined IPSA from the House of Commons
* Thomas Fitch, Director of Finance, draws on his experience working at Department for Health and Social Care & trained as a chartered accountant at HM Treasury"
*** "We are independent of parliament and the government." *** (hahahahahahahahahahahahaha)
https://www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/article/eight-in-ten-prison-and-probation-staff-unhappy-with-early-release-schemes
ReplyDeletePrison and probation workers have expressed disapproval at recent early release schemes for prisoners, but are more positive about plans for a “Texas-style” points-based system.
Under SDS40, eligible prisoners serving five years or less are automatically released on licence after serving 40% of their sentence.
By the time SDS40 was introduced, another early-release scheme – End of Custody Supervised Licence – had been expanded greatly. When launched in 2023, ECSL allowed category B and C prisoners to be released up to a maximum of 18 days before their conditional release dates. The maximum number of days rose to 35 days in March 2024, and to 70 days two months later.
The survey showed found more optimism about plans to introduce a “Texas-style” points-based system whereby prisoners earn early release as a reward for good behaviour... Justice secretary Shabana Mahmood accepted the recommendation “in principle” and said further detail will follow once legislation is placed before the House of Commons."
Also
https://www.civilserviceworld.com/news/article/independent-review-dubs-prisonscapacity-crisis-systemic
"Senior officials “so concerned” about breakdown in criminal justice system they prepared a paper trail for a future public or parliamentary inquiry
Over the past year, multiple sources have identified a reluctance on the part of the Sunak administration to react to the crisis in a timely manner in the run-up to July 2024’s general election... Owers' report said that senior officials had been “so concerned about a potential breakdown in the criminal justice system that an audit was kept of all decision-making and documents, in case there was a public or parliamentary inquiry”.
Shabana Mahmood said the report laid bare the “disgraceful way” the last Conservative administration had run the nation’s prisons: “They added less than 500 cells to the prison estate over 14 years, released over 10,000 prisoners early under a veil of secrecy, and brought our jails close to total collapse on countless occasions”
Owers said the chief inspector of probation and the voluntary sector should be involved in discussing the design, resourcing and delivery of community services for offenders, such as addiction, health, housing, and employment services."
back in the virtual world...
ReplyDeletehttps://www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/article/ministry-of-justice-launches-departmentwide-ai-action-plan
"All staff members to get "secure, enterprise-grade AI assistants" by December"
https://www.publictechnology.net/2025/07/09/public-order-justice-and-rights/hmpps-sheds-light-on-prisoner-violence-estimator-algorithm/
"Details of the function of the Violence in Prisons Estimator have been released in a transparency document published via GOV.UK’s repository of public-sector algorithmic records. The HMPPS tool “produces an estimate of the number of violent incidents that an offender in custody is at risk of being involved in over the next year, based on their age and previous behaviour in custody”, the record says.
For each offender, the tool issues an estimate in the form of a round number – “for example, if someone has an estimate of 2, this means that, historically, offenders with a similar profile – in terms of age and history of incidents – were involved in an average of 2 incidents in the following year”.
In the 12-month period up to the end of November 2024, the wider categorisation tool was used to support 50,000 initial categorisation decisions, and a further 83,000 recategorisation decisions."
And here's that release:
https://www.gov.uk/algorithmic-transparency-records/hmpps-violence-in-prisons-estimator
"Description
This algorithmic tool helps prison staff to manage violence in prisons.
The tool produces an estimate of the number of violent incidents that an offender in custody is at risk of being involved in over the next year, based on their age and previous behaviour in custody. These factors were selected due to substantial evidence linking them to incidents of violence in custody.
Prison staff use the estimate, in conjunction with other data sources, to quickly identify whether an offender is likely to be involved in violence whilst in custody and how frequently. This enables HMPPS staff to prioritise their resources effectively and improve the safety within prisons."
"enterprise-grade" ?
Delete"To boldly go where no one has gone before." ?
The Explainable Boosting Machine - its a real thing!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.gov.uk/algorithmic-transparency-records/hmpps-violence-in-prisons-estimator
Garbage In, Garbage Out
4.2.4 - Model input - For each offender: Age Days since their last assault incident in custody Number of assaults in custody Number of assaults in custody in the last 12 months Assault rate in custody Assault rate in custody in the last 12 months Time in custody (years) Time in custody in the last 12 months (years)
4.2.5 - Model output - An estimate of the number of violent incidents that an offender is at risk of being involved in over the next year.
"A human decision-maker is involved in every process where these estimates are used":
"The tool is best understood as a more stable and informative version of an assault rate — it offers a high-level view of risk based on past behaviour and age, but it must be used with caution and in context, not as a definitive measure.
The tool is an implementation of an Explainable Boosting Machine. It is trained on past data about assaults in custody and the age of individuals involved. These features were chosen based on established evidence linking them to higher risk levels of future custodial violence.
The tool is part of a suite of information that helps to support decision making and managing safety in prisons.
The tool provides the following benefits:
* Assists the targeting of support activity. The tool enables activity to be focused on those offenders with the greatest risk of violence.
* Saves staff hours of manual work. The tool saves staff having to trawl through lots of data about offenders to understand the relative risk and greatest violence offenders.
* To help identify which prisoners might benefit from further support to manage their risk of violence.
We also considered other modelling approaches (such as mixed effects regression models and other boosted tree models). We determined that the chosen approach (Explainable Boosting Machine) provided the best balance of interpretability and performance.
The model, which has been pre-trained and stored securely, is retrieved from an Amazon S3 storage location...
Primary risks are:
- Model misapplication: Using the model for tasks it wasn’t designed for.
- Data degradation and/or data drift: Changes in the characteristics of input data over time which cause the model’s performance to decline.
- Concept drift: The relationship between input data and the target outcome changes over time, making the model’s estimates less accurate."
______________________________________________________
The Explainable Boosting Machine - seriously!
https://interpret.ml/docs/ebm.html