Sunday, 3 August 2025

A Brave New Probation World

Those of us that heard the cobbler delivering the Bill McWilliams lecture in Cambridge recently were struck by two things, his lack of understanding of the probation ethos and his complete awe for everything AI. Well folks, you need to get your head around what he has planned for us, a bright future based on technology and super computers. We all know how good the MoJ track record is with information technology, so what could possibly go wrong?

AI action plan for justice

Published 31 July 2025

Foreword by Lord Timpson

The Prime Minister, the Lord Chancellor, and I are committed to creating a more productive and agile state - one in which AI and technology drive better, faster, and more efficient public services.

That is why I am delighted to introduce the AI Action Plan for Justice - a first-of-its-kind document outlining how we will harness the power of AI to transform the public’s experience, making their interactions with the justice system simpler, faster, and more tailored to their needs.

This plan focuses on three priorities: strengthening our foundations, embedding AI across justice services, and investing in the people who will deliver this transformation. It aligns with the Prime Minister’s vision to build digital and AI capability across government and supports our departmental priority of delivering swift access to justice.

Since joining the Ministry of Justice (MOJ) in July 2024, I have seen real opportunities for AI to improve the working lives of our frontline staff and colleagues - and clear evidence of where it is already making a difference.

I am proud to represent a department that is fundamentally rethinking its use of technology to improve outcomes for the public and contribute to wider economic growth.

I will continue to champion our ambition for the MOJ to lead the way in responsible and impactful AI adoption across government.

This plan marks a crucial first step in delivering that ambition.

James Timpson
Minister for Prisons, Probation and Reducing Reoffending
Lead Ministry of Justice (MOJ) Minister for AI

Executive summary

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform our justice system in England & Wales and deliver our ministerial priorities. AI shows great potential to help deliver swifter, fairer, and more accessible justice for all - reducing court backlogs, increasing prison capacity and improving rehabilitation outcomes as well as victim services. But this opportunity must be seized responsibly, ensuring that public trust, human rights, and the rule of law remain central and AI risks are carefully managed.

This AI Action Plan for Justice sets out the Ministry of Justice’s approach to responsible and proportionate AI adoption across courts, tribunals, prisons, probation and supporting services (referred to here as the justice system). It has been developed in consultation with the independent judiciary and legal services regulators and we will implement it in collaboration with our wider justice sector partners such as the Home Office, the Crown Prosecution Service and our trade unions. It complements wider government efforts to safely modernise public services and builds on the UK’s global strengths in legal services, data science, and AI innovation.

We will focus on three strategic priorities:

1. Strengthen our foundations

We will enhance AI leadership, governance, ethics, data, digital infrastructure and commercial frameworks. A dedicated Justice AI Unit led by our Chief AI Officer will coordinate the delivery of the Plan, with critical input from our Data Science, Digital and Transformation teams. A cross-departmental AI Steering Group provides oversight and an AI and Data Ethics Framework, and communications plan will promote transparency and engagement.

2. Embed AI across the justice system

We will deliver more effective services across citizen-facing, operational and enabling functions alike. By applying a “Scan, Pilot, Scale” approach, we will target high-impact use cases. These include:
  • Reducing administrative burden with secure AI productivity tools including search, speech and document processing (e.g. transcription tools that allow probation officers to focus on higher-value work).
  • Increasing capacity through better scheduling (e.g. prison capacity).
  • Improving access to justice with citizen-facing assistants (e.g. enhancing case handling and service delivery in our call centres).
  • Enabling personalised education and rehabilitation (e.g. tailored training for our workforce and offenders).
  • Supporting better decisions through predictive and risk-assessment models (e.g. predicting the risk of violence in custody).
3. Invest in our people and partners

We will invest in talent, training and proactive workforce planning to accelerate AI adoption and transform how we work. We will also strengthen our partnerships with legal service providers and regulators to support AI-driven legal innovation and with our criminal justice partners on our collective response to AI-enabled criminality.

We are ready to deliver. AI rollout is already underway with encouraging early results. Initial funding is secured, with additional backing anticipated as we demonstrate impact. As AI technologies mature, we will refine our approach and plan based on real-world outcomes, evaluation, and feedback from staff, trade unions, partners, and the public. We are committed to acting boldly, learning rapidly, and ensuring AI adoption delivers real improvements. Together, these priorities will ensure AI is embedded in our services and transformation programmes, supported by the right foundations, and driven by a productive and agile workforce.

Case study: Using machine learning to create a single offender identity

Having a single, consistent ID for each offender is critical to making better-informed decisions across the justice journey. Fragmented and inconsistent data across different services has made it challenging to track an individual’s journey.

We are building a real-time system linking offender data across agencies to provide a single, consistent view. This tackles longstanding issues with duplication and missing data that can compromise sentencing and rehabilitation.

The system uses Splink, open-source data linking software developed by MOJ data scientists. It applies explainable machine learning to deduplicate records and ensure accuracy. This single view will reduce admin burden, support better decision-making, and enable more advanced AI tools to enhance public safety and rehabilitation outcomes.

2.1.2 Accelerate insight with AI-powered search and knowledge retrieval

Justice system staff often rely on large volumes of unstructured information, including operational procedures, policy documents, case records or legal precedents but traditional search tools struggle to surface what’s most relevant. AI-powered semantic or hybrid search understands meaning, context, and language variation, helping users quickly find the critical information they need.

Unlike standard keyword searches, semantic search understands context, meaning, and relationships between concepts. For example, prison officers could quickly review offender notes to identify risk indicators or rehabilitation opportunities, and caseworkers could swiftly locate relevant guidance or evidence, saving valuable time and improving decision-making.

This ultimately will reduce the time spent manually searching through lengthy documents, so staff can spend more time making informed decisions, and providing better support to those they serve.

As resources allow, we will scale these tools across justice services to reduce inefficiencies, speed up decision-making, and improve frontline service delivery.

Case study: Smarter searches for probation staff

Finding the right information quickly is critical in probation work, yet traditional keyword searches often fall short. Staff were spending time experimenting with different keywords to locate case details, leading to frustrating “search flurries.”

To solve this, MOJ Data Science introduced semantic search in the Probation Digital System (launched June 2025), powered by a Large Language Model (LLM). This AI-driven tool understands context, meaning, and variations in language such as recognising synonyms, misspellings, abbreviations, and acronyms. As a result, staff now receive more relevant results from their very first search, reducing search time and improving decision-making.

This AI-driven improvement reduces search time, enhances decision-making, and allows probation officers to spend more time focusing on offender rehabilitation, risk management, and community safety.

2.1.3 Use speech and translation AI to free frontline staff from admin burdens

Frontline staff spend significant time transcribing meetings and documenting interactions. This is time that could be better spent engaging with people and managing risk. We are piloting AI transcription and summarisation tools in probation services in Kent, Surrey, Sussex, and Wales to reduce this administrative load and improve the quality of recorded interactions.

Case study: Scanning for solutions to support probation officers with notetaking

In probation services, officers dedicate valuable time to writing case notes, which impacts their capacity to focus on rehabilitative work with offenders. High caseloads mean Probation Officers sometimes struggle to find the time to evidence and analyse complex conversations with People on Probation in a sufficiently detailed and consistent format. We are piloting AI-powered transcription and summarisation tools across probation services in Kent, Surrey, Sussex, and Wales.

Early results are very encouraging, with the tool reducing note-taking time by 50% and earning a 4.5/5 satisfaction score from officers. Freed-up time is being used for more meaningful work, better engagement, analysis, and decision-making while improving job satisfaction and reducing stress. In short, the tool is already boosting capacity, service quality, and staff morale.

17 comments:

  1. "High caseloads mean Probation Officers sometimes struggle..."

    "Finding the right information quickly is critical in probation work, yet traditional keyword searches often fall short. Staff were spending time experimenting with different keywords to locate case details, leading to frustrating 'search flurries'... To solve this, MOJ Data Science introduced semantic search in the Probation Digital System (launched June 2025), powered by a Large Language Model (LLM)... semantic search understands context, meaning, and relationships between concepts..."

    "Initial funding is secured": so, rather than address high caseloads - or any of the other blindingly obvious crises afflicting the probation service - the cobbler & his chums have identified they need to spend £billions of taxpayer cash on resolving the pressing issue of "search flurries".

    "search flurries" - Old English; a Mediaeval name for life-threatening infections spread by nobles, knights & sheriffs who spent time searching for someone. (see also Love Island, Big Brother, Blind Date, Married at..., etc)

    "Early results are very encouraging, with the tool reducing note-taking time by 50% and earning a 4.5/5 satisfaction score from officers."

    And then AI 'has a moment' & 'hallucinates':

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/man-ai-girlfriend-encouraged-him-131529754.html

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0kgydkr516o

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/man-dies-by-suicide-after-talking-with-ai-chatbot-widow-says/

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/sewell-setzer-character-ai-suicide-lawsuite/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g8r34nxeno

    https://www.npr.org/2025/07/09/nx-s1-5462609/grok-elon-musk-antisemitic-racist-content

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  2. Reading this brought to mind two quotes from an earlier article featured here:

    If probation is unable to develop a clear and credible identity, distinct from narratives around punishment, public safety, use of technology, cost-effectiveness, or custody alternatives, …

    Probation would benefit from being untethered from narratives of punishment, public safety, cost-saving, and avoiding labels of ‘cheaper’, a ‘replacement’ or an ‘alternative’…..

    https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ec3ce97a1716758c54691b7/t/6849d80853c6e200f3f79e69/1749669898562/Shaping+Probation’s+Identity.pdf

    https://probationmatters.blogspot.com/2025/07/outlier-england.html?m=1

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  3. “the tool is already boosting capacity, service quality, and staff morale.”

    Really??

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  4. It's like someone dropped a keyboard and a squirrel into a bin, then ran the results through a spell checker....

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  5. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8339084.stm

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    Replies
    1. A government IT project for tracking offenders in England and Wales through the criminal justice system was a "shambles", MPs have said.

      Officials in charge of the scheme - abandoned after costs trebled - lacked even a "minimum level of competence", the Public Accounts Committee found.

      It highlighted a "culture of over-optimism" and lack of "rigorous" scrutiny of the scheme.

      The Prison Service said it was working to ensure mistakes are not repeated.

      Plans for the £234m National Offender Management Information System system, known as C-NOMIS, began in 2004 with the aim of allowing the prison and probation services in England and Wales to follow offenders "end-to-end" through the criminal justice system.

      'Grossly underestimated'

      But by July 2007 the project was two years behind schedule and its estimated costs had increased to £690m. It was later abandoned.

      The committee's report finds that staff "grossly underestimated" the likely cost and neither ministers nor senior management at the Home Office, nor even the project board, were aware of problems until May 2007.

      Even now, the National Offender Management Service, which runs prisons and probation, has no idea what £161m spent before October 2007 was used for, it adds.

      The committee's chairman, Conservative MP Edward Leigh, said: "This committee has become inured to the dismal procession of government IT failures which have passed before us, but even we were surprised by the extent of the failure of C-NOMIS, the ambitious project to institute a single database to manage individual offenders through the prison and probation systems.

      "There was not even a minimum level of competence in the planning and execution of this project.

      "The result has been a three-year delay in the roll-out of the programme, envisaged separate databases for prisons and probation instead of the original one, each with different information about an offender, and a doubling of costs.

      "This project has been a shambles."

      Its replacement, NOMIS, will instead use three separate databases and is not expected to be working fully until 2011.

      A Prison Service spokesman said: "The C-NOMIS project was stopped when it was recognised that it was going to be over-budget and late.

      "Steps have been taken to ensure that the mistakes made are not repeated.

      "The work done so far has not been lost but is being used as the basis of the revised NOMIS programme.

      "This will support our commitment to ensuring that prison and probation service staff have improved access to the information they need to protect the public by managing offenders in custody and in the community.

      "The prison element of the programme commenced roll out to public sector prisons on 22 May 2009 and is on schedule to complete in summer 2010."

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  6. https://ujhykshsiskqgovg.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/Bohns,+Newark,+&+Boothby+(2018)-GrzK45XEgrvAqNmLEew8iFF8FEd9pp.pdf

    Purpose  We explore how, and how accurately, people assess their influence over others’ behavior and attitudes. We describe the process by which a person would determine whether he or she was responsible for changing someone else’s behavior or attitude, and the perceptual, motivational, and cognitive factors that are likely to impact whether an influencer’s claims of responsibility are excessive, insufficient, or accurate

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  7. The case study for probation staff simply highlights how complicated they have made what was a simple process.
    Over many years legacy systems have become more complex as officers on the ground try to record data which is then used against them and to protect the back of the ‘leaders.’
    HMIP have for many years pointed out that staff are spending more than 90% of their time at their computers, more than meeting the definition of a bureaucracy.

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  8. From Twitter:-

    “A dedicated Justice AI Unit led by our Chief AI Officer”- yet another unaccountable department."

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  9. I’ll tell you what will really earn a 4.5/5 satisfaction score … keep the IT upgrade, but instead invest in better pay for Probation Officers, increase staffing levels, improve access to services like housing and employment for clients, and ensure every office has parking and a desk for every staff, even coffee and water machines, and a security presence.

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  10. To my mind probation needs to be a person facing organisation. It's the ethos that's wrong. For too many years probation has been about data inputting and collection. A focus on controlling behaviour instead of changing behaviour.
    The service has become robotic. Computer says yes. Computer says no.
    To that extent, with the current ethos, the probation officer is already just an extention of an algorithm driven service, just part of a machine.
    I feel real anger at Lord Timpson.
    I expected better from him.

    https://youtu.be/JzF5VawGgiA?si=XM5qiVXjSbDb7SgJ

    'Getafix

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    Replies
    1. "Would you like to talk to a human?" Thanks for the reminder 'Getafix.

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    2. the cobbler seems to be suffering from Dunning-Kruger syndrome, i.e. the less they know the more confident they are in what they think they know.

      see also grayling, truss, johnson, starmer, sunak, cameron, bliar, etc etc ad nauseaum

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  11. probation already has a virtual chief officer - the woman with several names who no-one knows because, based upon a public presence, she doesn't exist in reality.

    and speaking of invisible people..... where did rees (or whatever she's actually called) go? what cushty number did they line up for her to walk into? or maybe she's slipped into the private pocket-filling sector?

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  12. from link provided by getafix elsewhere:

    Ministers should conduct a review of safety for probation officers across England and Wales after a stabbing incident that has deeply concerned frontline staff, a watchdog has told the Guardian.

    The call from Martin Jones, the chief inspector of probation, follows demands for walk-through metal detectors and security guards to help protect caseworkers as they interact with growing numbers of released offenders.

    A man was charged last week with the attempted murder of a probation officer in her 30s who was stabbed at work in Preston, Lancashire.

    Ryan Gee, 35 and of no fixed address, is due before Preston magistrates court accused of attempted murder, threatening a person with an offensive weapon or bladed article in a private place, two counts of possessing a knife blade in a public place, possession of an imitation firearm with intent to cause fear of violence, and false imprisonment.

    After the incident, a petition calling for enhanced security has gained more than 15,000 signatures and support from dozens of probation staff.

    Probation officers face extra work and increasing contact with serious offenders after the early release of prisoners to ease overcrowding in jails.

    Ministers are releasing some violent prisoners, those convicted of sexual offences and domestic abusers, after serving a third of their sentences in an effort to reduce pressure on prisons.

    Asked if he backed calls for an immediate review of safety procedures, Jones, who was the chief executive of the Parole Board for nine years, said: “Probation staff do a vital job at the frontline of the justice system managing a large and complex caseload. It is vital that there is a proper review to learn lessons from the recent serious and concerning attack on an officer. Probation staff deserve to be safe in their work.”

    According to the petition, many probation offices do not have dedicated security personnel, nor do they consistently use metal detectors or other screening methods to ensure the safety of their staff and visitors.

    “This oversight places probation officers at significant risk, potentially exposing them to threats and violence from the very individuals they are working to help rehabilitate,” the petition says.

    Most probation offices have panic alarms on the walls and no security guards. There is no guarantee that staff will be able to reach them if they are attacked.

    In comments below the petition, one staff member wrote: “Since starting my new office in January, I have witnessed colleagues being punched, and on one occasion trapped in a room with an angry and aggressive service user. We do our best to manage risk. We use body cues, we use high-risk rooms, we ask our colleagues to keep an eye out if we are concerned. But we work with humans, who are unpredictable. With the best will in the world, we cannot read their minds.”

    A former probation officer said they left the service because of threats, abuse and a lack of security.

    “I worked in the Probation Service for five years before leaving, one of the reasons being the relentless abuse, threats of violence and the lack of security in our offices. Time and again, concerns about safety were not taken seriously,” they said.

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  13. part 2

    The total number of offenders on probation in England and Wales at the end of March 2025 was 241,540, a 9% increase compared with March 2015.

    The government began freeing thousands of inmates early in September to curb jail overcrowding, by temporarily reducing the proportion of sentences that some prisoners must serve behind bars from 50% to 40%.

    A sentencing review by the former Conservative justice secretary David Gauke called for more criminals to serve their sentences in the community while being monitored by the Probation Service.

    The Probation Service said it was conducting a review of the incident in Preston, and would consider whether further changes were needed nationally.

    A spokesperson said an internal investigation that would consider the security measures at the site had already been launched. Officials are limited in what they can say because of the continuing police investigation and criminal charges. “Our thoughts remain with the probation officer involved, their family and their colleagues,” they said.

    “We will not tolerate assaults on our hard-working staff. We have already launched an urgent investigation into security measures at Preston and will use the findings to consider whether further changes are needed across the entire service to ensure all staff are better protected.”

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  14. In no way justifying or minimising the terrible assault on the PO I do wonder if it is within the context of the established relationship now ? Is a officer viewed as negatively as a police or prison officer as the ethos as changed

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