MoJ and Dodgy Figures

Some reader reaction to the MoJ performance figures released yesterday, ahead of the Judicial Review process that gets underway this afternoon:-   

If the MoJ won't acknowledge the prisons crisis, they were never going to acknowledge the crisis caused by TR. No surprises here.

Doesn't he realise that releasing information 'proving' that staff are doing well despite TR just kicks the can down the road, and can be used as evidence of the chaos that ensues when all that CRC 'innovation' destroys any notion of a good service?

Hey, MoJ spinners, if you can release this data then surely you can give us the results of Testgates 1-4?

You are absolutely right, they could. However, it needs refining first and some details added as well as evidence losing. Do you honestly think we'd get it any other way? My clients have got nothing on MP's when it comes to underhand, mendacious, self-centred sociopathic behaviour. This Tory bunch are rotten to the core and yet every election manage to convince people they are not. Now what does that behaviour say about them?

Do you think they have took into consideration the massive increase in SFOs since June and they are mostly CRC clients? Told this by an ACE. Of course couldn't admit it is to do with the split but surely more than a coincidence!

Mmm hasn't the criteria changed a few times over recent years?

Yup. I think it was September 2014 strangely enough. The same time the figures were collated. I'm very surprised the MoJ have not made this clear!

Sect 18 GBH, despite being a 3 strikes, life sentence totting up offence, was removed from the SFO criteria. That's why numbers dipped.

Just a few observations - clear to see some NPS staff have voted with their feet and it's very reassuring to hear they will all be replaced with new recruits in the near future (gawd 'elp us)

Performance: nearly all of these things are linked to Key Performance Indicators and so I'm not surprised that programme completions; recall timeliness; terminations and employment at termination are all on target because I know my ACO would lynch us if we missed. But what is being missed at the expense of hitting these targets - they're that stats I'd be interested to see.

Also worth observing that all of those stats (with the exception of programme completions) are very poor indicators of how good or bad the work is. I could see a client precisely zero times, but as long as I got the recall in within 24 hours and then completed the bloody OASys at the right point in a two month period, that's two ticks for me.

Mr Selous doesn't know the half of it in reality. The majority of adjourned PSRs in my area are written by CRC POs on a sessional basis because there are not enough NPS POs. This is unsustainable. Adjournments for PSRs are five weeks, illegal at best. PSRs being typed the day before the hearing so no time for quality control, checking proposals etc. Subject of report doesn't turn up for interview or writer is sick on day of interview so case adjourned again for another five weeks. Ten weeks between plea and sentence. Hardly great for defendant or victim or standing of probation with the judiciary. This situation is the direct consequence of TR, nothing else.

What the MoJ data shows is a reduction in the number of front line staff, both PO and PSO grades. Nightmare for those left.

I get the impression that the status quo is being used to argue that the TR impact to date is negligible to vaguely positive, hence the JR is unnecessary. As many have already identified, the data produced is either irrelevant or inaccurate, i.e. it has been manipulated. Hopefully Mr Justice Ouseley will know the difference.

Had a quick glance at these figures and they are really of little relevance. It's noticeable that the tone of the language makes much of small upward trends and then glosses over opposite trends. The SFO figures prove nothing. In fact only year on year trends have any validity and even these need to be treated with caution given the variability of human nature blah blah blah. 

I have seen NOMS machinations up close and this smacks of the approach they adopt in similar situations especially JR's. Honest brokers simply outlining the facts in an objective manner. Although this belies the fact that a number of high level meetings will have identified this as a strategic defence for the JR and rushed to release a paper that is largely meaningless. Although it's purpose is really to sow a seed of doubt in the courts mind come the hearing. All rather tawdry, but then that was the overall impression I gained of NOMS. My advice would be to pursue a FOI request to find out what correspondence took place, and what meetings were held prior to the launch.

I think it's very significant that Selous has published the statement and Grayling doesn't get a mention! I know Selous has responsibility for probation, but I am left wondering where Graylings gone scurrying to? He's far too quiet, and I'm sure if all was as rosy as the statement suggests, Grayling would be out shouting from the rooftops. I'm curious.

The Probation Service has continued to do well DESPITE TR, rather than DUE to it. It's a testament to us rather than Grayling. However, hope and goodwill is running out and fast. I fear that the figures over the next 12 months are only going to be in decline across the board.

Russell Webster has this to say:- 

To be honest, the conclusions that can be drawn from this management information are limited:

Sickness rates are rising but overall staffing has increased too – although there are concerns about the rate at which staff are leaving the NPS.

The timeliness of court reports and order completion rates are relatively unchanged.

There has however been a drop in performance in submitting parole reports on time.

There have been major problems assessing new offenders and deciding which side of the new two-tier probation service should supervise them, although it appears that performance is improving rapidly.

This information cannot provide much insight about the quality of service being delivered under the new system. The best measure of this is, of course, reoffending rates but they will not be available until Autumn 2016.

Since this information has only been published for the purpose of the Judicial Review, we will need to wait and see what the judge and respective legal teams make of it.

Ian Lawrence says this on his latest blog:-

I am sure that it is just a coincidence that it has been published the day before legal proceedings commence, but it provides a commentary and tables of figures for a number of key operations undertaken by the NPS and CRC’s since the division of the service. You will draw your own conclusions about the picture that the report portrays, and as you would expect we are going through this forensically to see what there might be for us in terms of the JR, but my quick read through shows the following: 

A claim that SFO’s are down, in comparison to this time last year.

Long term sickness on the increase by an average of 2:0% (AWDL now 11.9% from 9.9%

Staff split just about 50/50 between NPS and CRC’s 

200 Leavers from NPS in the period of the report and 30 Joiners

Use of Oral and Fast PSR’s on the increase

PAROM1 reports within the agreed time limits show a fall in completion

Offenders in employment at termination of Orders or Licence continue upward trend as per last two years

Offenders in accommodation at termination of Orders or Licence shows 4% drop in NPS

Unpaid work orders show a decrease attributable to less use by sentencers
Fall in OBP completions 

Only 57% completion of RSR assessments taking account of data in October (50% at end of September)

82% achievement of case allocation - NPS to CRC’s by end of 2nd working day/ 65% by next working day/ 15% on same working day 

NOMS also say that ‘this management information release is one-off and ad-hoc, and is not representative of how future probation performance information will be published. Regular publications of probation data will be made, but not necessarily limited to, or covering all areas covered in this release.’ They add: ‘These data are presented at national level to examine performance across the probation system, with distinctions made between the NPS and CRCs where appropriate. Comparisons to historic information have also been made where appropriate. That’s all straightforward then.

Lets round off with this sent in yesterday:- 

You want dodgy? You want controversial? You know the tune. Posted in the context of & knowledge that many African born & based musicians & influential others have been excluded from the white euro-centric BandAid Project:

"It's Chris-mas time, and there's no need to be afraid

At Chris-mas time, we let in light and banish shade

And in our world of bidders we can make a load of cash

Spin the truth until it suits

At Bidding time

But say a prayer, pray for the other ones

At Bidding time, it's hard but while you're having fun

There's a world outside your window, and it's a world of lies and spin

Where competitors can beat you, if you're left out then you're not in

And the Grayling bells that ring there are the clanging chimes of gold

Well tonight we're cashing in, what about you?

No peace and joy this Christmas in The CRC

The only hope they'll have is not yet being sacked

Where they're doing what they're told

But all the CRC's will fold

No-one thought that JR's time was here

Here's to you

Raise a glass to everyone

And here's to us

And all the years to come

Let them know it's JR time after all

Heal the world, let them know it's JR time etc etc etc"