Sunday 15 December 2019

What Happens Next?

I know it's early days, but I think I've just watched the next leader of the Labour Party on the Andrew Marr show. We all know the election campaign has started with John Macdonnell highlighting the capability of Rebecca Long-Bailey and 'Richard Burgon for Labour Leader' already appearing as a Twitter account. Now we know the 'acolyte-approved nodding dog' has little chance of success because, although he represents a northern seat, he has the misfortune of being the wrong gender.

Despite the politically correct position being that it's 'policies that matter, not personalities', most of us, including those voters from the working class north, know that's bollocks. The word coming strongly out of Labour circles is that the next Labour leader must be both female and from the north, before presumably attention turns to where they lie on the political spectrum and this is clearly where Lisa Nandy up there in Wigan is going to have a mighty battle on her hands.

Interestingly, right from the start of her interview 'down the line' from Salford, the highly contentious issue of 'metropolitanism' came to the fore. Of course it's not a Tory 'trope', but rather the reality highlighted by the BBC offer of an interview being conditional on her travelling down to London. She refused and called it out. She put the issue centre-stage of her initial pitch for leadership by suggesting that Labour headquarters should move out of London. No doubt that will mark her out for some unpleasantness, along with not being a Corbyn supporter of course. 

So, we have a very interesting political situation developing here because like it or not, the focus is going to move very much north of Watford, well beyond the Tory 'shires' and Labour 'metropolitan' North London. HS2 will be coming north and Crossrail 2 is dead. The BBC is already big in Salford and Channel Four is moving to Leeds. Lots of infrastructure is going to get built in places very unfamiliar to the 'metropolitan' elite because clearly Boris Johnson now feels obliged to deliver on all those rash promises in the vain hope of hanging on to the former Labour heartlands. 

Lisa Nandy clearly gets all this and can see that with the right Leader, the right policies and all this Tory investment, the whole UK economy can be re-balanced with previously neglected areas beginning to feel reconnected and a Labour Party being able to take advantage. We all know deep down a leopard doesn't change its spots and other Tory Party policies will still hurt disadvantaged and marginalised people. Boris could find the next General Election quite a bit more of a challenge. 



23 comments:

  1. I think there are many in the Parliamentry Labour Party that should shoulder part of the blame for the parties demise in this election.
    There are those experienced politicians that refused to sit on the front bench, those that resigned in droves and every half hour that left Corbyn fighting front and back, and only served to legitimise the media's castagation of the leader and the party itself.
    Many of who those cry democracy over labour's stance on the referendum should be reminded that their actions forced a second leadership election, which Corbyn again won with a huge majority, but many still refused to accept his mandate from the membership.
    I'd go as far as to say that the 2015 and 2017 election was lost by the antics of the PLP rather then the leadership.
    I'm sure whoever the next leader may be, they will see a significant fall in Labour Party membership, and I hope many of those that are thinking of running for the leadership come under close scrutiny from the membership with regard to how their personal actions have impacted negatively on the party for the last couple of years.
    This election disaster dosen't just belong to the leadership, it was a combined party effort, and many of those complicit need to take a share of the responsibility.

    'Getafix

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    1. 'Getafix - I'm neither a member of the Labour Party nor a close follower of their internal squabbles, but it strikes me its sustainable future and ability to win a General Election might well lie with someone who's past actions might be perceived to have had negative effects! As always, it's a matter of which 'faction' wins this time round.

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    2. I could bang on all day Jim about my political viewpoint, but I fear a future where political ideology (of whatever colour) is sacrificed in order to win elections.
      That's what happened with the Blair years. Not only did the focus on centrist ground politics facilitate the rise of exremism on the margins of both the left and the right, it also left behind many of the poorest communities who's voice for change was heard in the leave vote of the referendum.
      I think too that the Labour Party should be careful not to have a kneejerk reaction to this election and their failure to win over the public. I think many leave voters and those that "lent" their vote to the Conservatives this time will soon start to feel betrayed by Johnson and Co.
      I think it might be wise for Labour to wait a little and see what are new government are really about before adopting any drastic reforms.

      Away from politics, this might be of interest to you.

      https://inews-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/inews.co.uk/news/long-reads/bbc-responsible-child-real-world-arguments-age-crime-responsibility-1341554?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1&amp&usqp=mq331AQCKAE%3D#aoh=15764246349198&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Finews.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flong-reads%2Fbbc-responsible-child-real-world-arguments-age-crime-responsibility-1341554

      'Getafix

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    3. Thanks 'Getafix for the 'heads-up'.

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  2. Some strong female candidates and Lisa Nandy ticks all the right boxes and will not be endorsed by Momentum and the Corbynites so stands a good chance of leading Labour to a future victory. I'd go for Kier Starmer as deputy leader and Labour will win.

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    1. https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/emily-thornberry-responds-to-caroline-flint-1-6426151

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    2. I have no doubt Thornberry made those remarks, she has form after all. Typical Labour metropolitan view of the North.

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  3. With a tongue firmly in a cheek I wonder if Jamie Reed, John Woodcock, Angela Smith, Mike Gapes or Luciana Berger fancy a shot as Labour Leader? Probably doesn't pay enough.

    Back in the real world I reckon that Jess Phillips could be the most difficult opposition that Johnson would have to deal with. I don't think she is as 'moderate' as those who hated Corbyn claim. Her live interview on the C4 alternative election night programme was impressively impassioned for the right reasons, i.e. her constituents, the real people - rather than statistics.

    As a committed socialist who believes in fairness & looking after the population, which I felt was the purpose of the radical ideas in the Labour manifesto, I can see Phillips carrying that same social~ist message - especially now that the Corbyn/McDonnell crew will be moving on, presumably meaning that Milne & the other backroom string-pullers will also pick up their skirts & flee.

    I think Thornberry's toxic & not as bright as she thinks she is.

    It would be v.e.r.y interesting to see if Labour could go really long-game radical - Phillips & Nandy job-sharing Leader of HM Opposition with Long-Bailey as Shadow Chancellor, building on the foundations of experience & knowledge provided by Starmer, Benn, Cooper et al.

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    1. And whaddya know...

      BBC News 17 Dec 2019 - "Rumours of Long-Bailey and Rayner standing on 'joint ticket'

      As we wait for Labour leadership hopefuls to officially confirm their candidacy, there are already reports that two of those who are hotly-tipped - Rebecca Long-Bailey and Angela Rayner - could stand on a joint ticket."

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  4. All this stuff about 'metropolitanism' comes out of a populist agenda and is not a million miles away from the right-wing complaint in the US that Washington is out of touch with the Midwestern states, the so-called 'flyover states' - our 'heartlands' perhaps.

    It's too simplistic and divisive to overplay the metropolitan critique of Labour and it is rather strange that this argument of being out of touch was not deployed against the Tory party when they ended up with only 165 seats following the Labour landslide in '97. I don't recall the Tories being told to get out of London, etc.

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  5. A response here from the letter's page of the Guardian - in response to the piece that was quoted in yesterday's blog. Given all the angst being directed at Corbyn's Labour, it's worth remembering that we haven't had a socialist-led government for the past twenty-five years, rather it was New Labour followed by the Tories. Surely the disenchantment in the heartlands hasn't just arisen, it's been festering for sometime: low wages, job insecurity, outsourcing, growing NHS waits,housing shortages.


    'Jonathan Freedland suggests we skip grief at the election results and move on to anger (Labour needs to learn: it’s about power, not gesture politics, Journal, 14 December), and he makes very clear who he is angry with. In this post-election period all the blame and venom seems to be directed at Jeremy Corbyn. But the ex-coalmining families on the council estate that I grew up on, impoverished and barely scraping a living together, have been betrayed not by a socialist-led Labour but by a toxic coalition from the right and liberal wings of the establishment.

    First there is the Tory party, with such contempt for ordinary people it lied to them throughout the campaign, then a media elite of TV presenters and journalists who pretended impartiality while peddling distortions, and finally the right wing of Labour who have weaponised antisemitism to undermine Corbyn when the overriding concern of those in the party should be directed at the rise in antisemitism and all other forms of racism in British society.

    None of these groups will suffer directly as a consequence of the neoliberal free-market capitalism soon to be unleashed on a divided, mistrustful and misinformed nation. Instead it is the working-class people I spoke to on many doorsteps, who spoke of not being valued, respected or listened to, whose lives will be further diminished as poverty intensifies and the privatisation of public services continues apace. We all need to accept our collective responsibility rather than engage in a futile and spiteful blame game.'

    Prof Diane Reay
    University of Cambridge

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    1. "right wing of Labour who have weaponised antisemitism to undermine Corbyn when the overriding concern of those in the party should be directed at the rise in antisemitism and all other forms of racism in British society."

      I'm interested to know where Lisa Nandy stands on this.

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    2. From the FT 18th August 2018:-

      A former Labour frontbencher has urged Jeremy Corbyn to adopt a less aggressive attitude to tackling the UK opposition party’s anti-Semitism crisis. 

      Lisa Nandy, the MP for Wigan and a former shadow energy secretary, said in an interview with the Financial Times’ political podcast that there was a “complete breakdown of trust” over the leadership’s defensive handling of the issue.

      “It’s really hard to understand how we got to this point,” she said. “Until there is a laying down of arms this will continue. What would be incredibly useful is if we could have those messages coming from the very top of the party. I think if Jeremy were to come out and do that he would find very strong support from me and other people.”

      Ms Nandy, who backed Owen Smith in a failed coup  against Mr Corbyn two years ago, said that the attitude of her party’s leadership towards tackling anti-Semitism was “fairly inexplicable”. The situation is now so dire, she suggested, that members “can’t even have a sensible conversation” about how to repair relations with the Jewish community.

      The MP, who is aligned to the party’s soft left faction, served in a senior role on Mr Corbyn’s first front bench team after he became leader three years ago. Ms Nandy revealed that she resigned following the referendum vote for Brexit after concluding that Mr Corbyn and those around him were not interested in healing the internal divides.

      “I went in to see Jeremy the day after all the [shadow cabinet] resignations had started. I had a conversation with him that didn’t go brilliantly,” she said. “I came out of that meeting feeling that not only was there no real desire to move on from the internal civil war, but that there are people in and around the leadership who were absolutely determined to stoke it.”

      Ms Nandy has consistently warned  about the threats facing Labour in its Brexit-supporting heartlands. In the interview, when asked whether her party would exist in five to 10 years’ time, she morosely responded “I genuinely don’t know”.

      “It feels to me like there’s a fracture at the moment between those who are advocating for an agenda that is very liberal, feels quite cosmopolitan, very global in outlook — and those who are speaking much more for security, social conservatism, the sort of things I hear all the time in Wigan.”

      She also warned that Labour faced a crisis if it did not deal with the “normalisation of hate” that is engulfing Britain’s political discourse. 

      “That is dangerous for the country but it’s also dead-end for the Labour party. We’ve only ever won when we’ve convinced the public that there is a more hopeful, more optimistic, better world on offer than the one that we’re currently in. For all of us, it matters but for the Labour party particularly, this is quite existential.”

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    3. Lisa Nandy possibly read the letter, below, that was signed by 200 Jewish supporters of Corbyn.

      You report (19 February) that a number of implacably anti-Corbyn MPs have left the Labour party alleging a failed “approach to dealing with antisemitism”, with Luciana Berger criticising Labour for becoming “sickeningly institutionally racist”.

      We are Jewish members and supporters of the Labour party concerned about the current rise of reactionary ideologies, including antisemitism, in Britain and elsewhere across Europe.

      We note the worrying growth of populist rightwing parties, encouraging racism, Islamophobia and antisemitism. In Britain the far right is whipping up these prejudices, a threat that requires a resolute and energetic response. But instead we have seen a disproportionate focus on antisemitism on the left, which is abhorrent but relatively rare.

      We believe that the Labour party under the progressive leadership of Jeremy Corbyn is a crucial ally in the fight against bigotry and reaction. His lifetime record of campaigning for equality and human rights, including consistent support for initiatives against antisemitism, is formidable. His involvement strengthens this struggle.

      Labour governments introduced both the anti-racist and human rights legislation of the 20th century and the 2010 Equalities Act. A Labour government led by Jeremy Corbyn will be a powerful force to fight against racism, Islamophobia and antisemitism.

      It is in this context that we welcome the Labour party’s endorsement of freedom of expression on Israel and on the rights of Palestinians. Labour is correct to recognise that while prejudice against Jewish people is deplorable, criticism of Israel’s government and policies can and must be made.

      We urge all who wish to see an end to bigotry and racism, and who seek a more just society, to give their support to the Labour party.

      https://www.theguardian.com/society/society+tone/letters

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    4. Corbyns problems with claims of antisemitism only really began when he refused to accept the International Definition of Antisemitism without question.
      I personally think he was right to do so, as I see it as a definition that can be used in many ways that it wasn't intended to be used.
      However, whether he had of adopted it without question or not, it was always going to mean problems for the Labour Party.
      Interestingly, at the same time Corbyn was coming under pressure for questioning the definition Trump decided to move the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem effectively recognising the latter as the state capital of Israel.
      What I find hard to accept is the racist clams against Corbyn for antisemitism, when a shrug of the shoulders and an "oh that's Boris for you" seems enough to absolve our current PM from comments and written articles of Muslim women looking like bank robbers and letter boxes, gays as bum boys and piccanniny children with water melon smiles. What about Windrush or May's 'Go Home' adverts?
      The BBC earlier this year attempted to explain Labours problem with antisemitism and Corbyns reluctance to adopt it without question, its in layman's terms but I think it's worth a read, particularly before any claim of racism is leveled at Corbyn.


      https://www-bbc-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-45030552?usqp=mq331AQNKAGYAdXvpZrZi4m1Kg%3D%3D&amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https://www.google.com

      'Getafix

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  6. "its complicated!"

    Here are some links to reading around issues relating to Jewishness/Israel from a variety of sources.

    https://www.un.org/unispal/document/auto-insert-193492/

    https://www.theholocaustexplained.org/anti-semitism/medieval-antisemitism/

    https://embassies.gov.il/UnGeneva/AboutIsrael/history/Pages/History-Israel-Timeline.aspx

    https://israelpolicyforum.org/next-50-years/

    https://time.com/5732752/israeli-settlements-trump-administration/

    https://www.diakonia.se/en/IHL/where-we-work/Occupied-Palestinian-Territory/Administration-of-Occupation/Israeli-Settlements-policy/History/

    https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2019/country-chapters/israel/palestine


    Does criticising Israeli policy make one an anti-Semite? Here's one view from the US:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/how-to-tell-when-criticism-of-israel-is-actually-anti-semitism/2018/05/17/cb58bf10-59eb-11e8-b656-a5f8c2a9295d_story.html

    The US government context:

    https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-israel/


    And here in the UK?

    http://www.balfourproject.org/the-british-governments-current-position-on-israel-and-palestine/

    "2019 General Election Manifesto positions on Middle East/Israel/Palestine from major UK parties as published by Nov 25, 2019:

    Conservative: “We will continue to support international initiatives to achieve reconciliation, stability and justice across the world and in current or former conflict zones such as Cypus, Sri Lanka and the Middle East, where we maintain our support for a two-state solution. Once we leave the EU, we will champion these values even more strongly.”

    On page 20 of the manifesto they say: “We will ban public bodies from imposing their own direct or indirect boycotts, disinvestment or sanctions campaigns against foreign countries. These undermine community cohesion,”
    __________________

    Labour: “Labour is committed to a comprehensive peace in the Middle East based on a two-state solution – a secure Israel alongside a secure and viable state of Palestine.
    There can be no military solution to this conflict, which must be settled on the basis of justice and international law. All sides must avoid taking action that would make peace harder to achieve. That means both an end to the blockade, occupation and settlements, and an end to rocket and terror attacks. Labour will continue to press for an immediate return to meaningful negotiations leading to a diplomatic resolution. A Labour government will immediately recognise the state of Palestine.

    Labour will “…Immediately suspend the sale of arms ….. to Israel for arms used in the violations of the human rights of Palestinians…Reform the international rules-based order to secure justice and accountability for breaches of human rights and international law, such as…the illegal blockade of the Gaza Strip…”

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  7. BBC News now claiming that Labour leadership haven't made a public-enough apology for losing the election.

    Maybe putting Corbyn & McDonnell in stocks in Westminster Square will finally shut Boris's chums up?

    F.F.S.

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  8. Chris Wootton, Chief Financial Officer at SportsDirect, says that HouseOfFraser is now showing the green shoots of a going-concern because the previously unsustainable outsourcing - "IT, logisitics, warehousing, everything" - has been brought in-house.

    "More House of Fraser department stores will be closing in 2020, Sports Direct boss Mike Ashley has warned...Shares in Sports Direct ended the day 30% higher after it reported a rise pre-tax half year profits to £193.4m."

    So, looks like outsourcing is no longer the new must-have cost-effective blue-sky thingy.

    Perhaps this new Northern Tory government will take note of Mike Ashley's lead?

    Rumours are that Johnson is to employ a dialect coach so he can engage in "authentic dialogue" whilst travelling around the more northern reaches of his fiefdom.

    New Justice Minister, anyone?

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    1. Esther McVey?
      Everyone else has had a go!
      She hard enough, unintelligent enough, unqualified enough and uncaring enough to meet the benchmark.

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  9. Meanwhile back at the probation ranch, things can only get worse. Raiding the attic for knackered old duvets and pillows for men leaving prison with fucking nothing. Housing have no houses, police haven't the time, Benefits are not beneficial, and "my" prison leavers are at the very bottom of any list of those who are going to tug the heartstrings, or illicit any populist governments attention bar a bit of gratuitous demonising
    What a state of things

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  10. https://www-bbc-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-50806919?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQCKAE%3D#aoh=15765530049541&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s

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    1. Two former executives at the private security company Serco have been charged over an alleged scandal involving the electronic tagging of criminals.

      Nicholas Woods and Simon Marshall have been charged with fraud by false representation and false accounting.

      Earlier this year, Serco was fined £19.2m over its electronic tagging service for the Ministry of Justice.

      Serco lost its contract to tag criminals in the UK in late 2013.

      Mr Woods is the former finance director of Serco Home Affairs while Mr Marshall is a former operations director of field services within Serco.

      The Serious Fraud Office said both men had been "charged with fraud by false representation and false accounting in relation to representations made to the Ministry of Justice between 2011 and 2013".

      In July, Serco was fined £19.2m after claims it had charged the government for electronically monitoring people who were either dead, in jail, or had left the country.

      Mr Woods is also charged with false accounting in relation to the 2011 statutory accounts of Serco Geografix Ltd, the SFO said.

      The SFO statement added: "This follows the SFO's completion of a deferred prosecution agreement (DPA) with Serco Group subsidiary Serco Geografix Ltd, which was approved by Mr Justice William Davis on 4th July 2019.

      "The investigation remains active and we are unable to comment further at this time."

      Mr Woods and Mr Marshall were charged by postal requisition and will appear in court on a date to be fixed.

      Solicitor Andrew Katzen who is representing Mr Woods, said his client was "very disappointed that the SFO has decided to charge him with criminal offences dating back to his work at Serco about 10 years ago.

      "The SFO has spent six years investigating this matter and Mr Woods fully co-operated throughout.

      "He denies the allegations and looks forward to the opportunity of clearing his name."

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  11. What happens next? Ask Tony Bliar - he thinks he knows everything about everything.

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