Wishful Thinking

In trying to find something useful or new to say about this TR omnishambles, I've been glancing at a recent report published by the Centre for Social Justice entitled 'the new probation landscape'. It's basically a survey of voluntary and third sector organisations who are currently in the process of considering bids for parts of our work. 

There's no great surprises in it. Some are keen, some are scared stiff and some don't know what to think. We know the government feel that their involvement is essential though, as reported here on the Third Sector website:-

The government faces a crucial challenge in ensuring that charities can take part in delivering probation service reforms, according to Jeremy Wright, the prisons minister.

Speaking at an event on the rehabilitation of offenders organised by the think tank the Centre for Social Justice at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester yesterday, Wright said: "It's a crucial design challenge to ensure that small voluntary sector organisations can compete successfully in this landscape."

The Ministry of Justice last month announced that 399 third sector organisations were involved a bidding process to deliver the Transforming Rehabilitation programme, which will replace probation trusts with private services responsible for providing probation services and reducing reoffending, who will be paid partly by results.

Wright said he anticipated that consortia of different organisations would come together to deliver services.

"When these consortia come together, we will have to be satisfied that the voluntary sector organisations aren't there as that wonderful phrase ‘bid candy’," he said. "We will ask some searching questions of everyone who puts their bids in to ensure that's not the case. It will be part of the way we judge the bids."

Wright said that there were concerns over whether the department used a "binary measurement" that paid out only if offenders committed no crimes, or a "frequency measurement", which paid out if offenders committed fewer crimes.

The voluntary sector favours the latter measurement because it makes it easier to work with more prolific offenders.

Wright said the MoJ might allow bidders themselves to specify in their bids both frequency and binary elements "that they think they can achieve".

I really like that last bit "that they think they can achieve". That's exactly what this whole bloody TR omnishambles is about, just wishful thinking. 

This is what wikipedia has to say about it :-

Wishful thinking is the formation of beliefs and making decisions according to what might be pleasing to imagine instead of by appealing to evidence, rationality, or reality. Studies have consistently shown that holding all else equal, subjects will predict positive outcomes to be more likely than negative outcomes.

The entry goes on to describe the 'fantasy' cycle:-

“the fantasy cycle” ... a pattern that recurs in personal lives, in politics, in history – and in storytelling. When we embark on a course of action which is unconsciously driven by wishful thinking, all may seem to go well for a time, in what may be called the “dream stage”. But because this make-believe can never be reconciled with reality, it leads to a “frustration stage” as things start to go wrong, prompting a more determined effort to keep the fantasy in being. As reality presses in, it leads to a “nightmare stage” as everything goes wrong, culminating in an “explosion into reality”, when the fantasy finally falls apart....

I think it's fairly clear we've passed the dream stage and we are now well into the frustration stage. Here's what the Chair of Greater London Napo has to say on the subject of the on-going consultations:-

On 19th September 2013, MOJ instructed LPT to begin a 28 day consultation exercise (since extended to Monday 21st October 2013) with the recognised trade unions on proposals for staff transfer consequent on the TR programme. 

All ACOs have been asked to hold briefing meetings in their LDUs to which they should invite representatives of the recognised trade unions.  A few have notified me of the details of the meetings they intend to hold. 

However, time is short and our resources are limited.  Branch officers are endeavouring to attend as many meetings as possible but given that there are over 20 LDUs in LPT there is simply not enough days in the week. 

So, my advice to you is to ask questions, lots of questions.  Make a note of the questions you ask and send them to me so that I can raise them with the Senior Management Team. 

Nobody has any answers. The lack of information is making this consultation exercise a sham and is one of the reasons that Napo felt it had no alternative but to register a dispute. 

Ballot papers should be with you all within the week.

"Nobody has any answers" is a common refrain during this frustration stage as another letter from a Napo branch to their Trust Chair shows:-

The original questions in the letter of the 15^th August remain unanswered and I invite you to revisit these. We appreciate the situation of TR has advanced whilst we have an outstanding failure to agree on certain issues. The 19^th September (letter) formally required your side to consult properly, yet this remains an unachievable task whilst you ignore outstanding and related questions that need to be satisfactorily answered for our membership and National Collective bargaining Negotiators.

I've heard that the timetable is slipping inexorably and that there genuinely is no idea at MoJ how the new model will work post 31st March next year... NONE AT ALL...

It seems the nightmare stage might be nearer than we thought.