Thursday, 1 October 2026

X Marks the Spot

This blog might get lots more traffic over the coming weeks; almost 19.3 million visits to date. Well done sir!

So, in the event of so many casual visitors wanting to know more about probation & why it's in the pickle it is, I'd like journalists or interested parties to get their heads around &/or teeth into the managed decline of the probation service & the one name that pops up every time there's a key moment in the genesis of that managed decline.

Offender Management Act 2007, which opened the door to outsourcing/privatising probation services.
  • "In 2006, X became principal private secretary to the Lord Chancellor – initially Charles Falconer, then from 2007 Jack Straw."
UK Ministry of Justice introduces the Revised Probation National Standards, 2011.
  • "In 2011, after 18 months at the Cabinet Office, X moved back to the Ministry of Justice, taking on the role of Director General, Transformation."
In 2013, the most significant legislative and structural overhaul of probation occurred in England and Wales under the UK Ministry of Justice's Transforming Rehabilitation strategy.
  • "in 2013 X became Director General, Criminal Justice"
The Probation Modernisation Fund (often referred to as the Mutuals Support Programme or specific probation spin-out funding) was an initiative driven by the Cabinet Office under Francis Maude during the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government in the early 2010s... The total amount of taxpayer cash deployed from this specific Modernisation Fund was allegedly £80 million, though critics and parliamentary evidence noted that exact, itemized figures were never fully disclosed by the government...

... Specifically, the *public funds* were utilized as a mechanism to cover pre-planned workforce restructuring costs, redundancy packages (which was supposed to offer up to 67.5 weeks of enhanced voluntary redundancy), and pre-planned job losses as staff transitioned to private-sector bidders, but much of it disappeared into the pockets of the multinationals, as confirmed here in Hansard:

"15 June 2015 - Andrew Selous, Written Answer: Under the enhanced voluntary redundancy scheme opened in advance of the transition of the Community Rehabilitation Companies (CRCs) to new providers, probation staff were able to apply for voluntary redundancy on the basis that they would leave the service by 31 March 2016. The total cost of these redundancies was £16.4m."

Here's the tell that selous dangles before your very eyes:

"All remaining Modernisation Fund monies were awarded to CRCs. Redundancy funding was allocated pro-rata to CRCs based on their size and estimated future staffing requirements."
  • Following the 2010 United Kingdom general election X transferred to the Cabinet Office as the Executive Director in the new Efficiency and Reform Group under Francis Maude."
X marks the spot. Every. Single. Time.
Anon

6 comments:

  1. From Napo HQ:-

    In October, just under two thousand prisoners, just under two thousand prisoners will be released early under the new progression model introduced in the Sentencing Act.

    Whilst amendments have been made to the eligibility for early release, Napo is still very concerned about the impact on victims and also the impact on its members. The probation service is significantly under-staffed across all areas of delivery and this additional work has added extra pressure on staff tasked with ensuring that the release of prisoners is managed as safely as possible.

    Ben Cockburn National Chair said: “There seems to be absolute denial in the leadership of HMPPS as to just how bad a state the probation service is in. We have massive staff shortages, unsustainable and dangerously high workloads and this week we will hear again that electronic monitoring is failing to deliver.

    “On top of this we have uncompetitive pay, crisis workloads and a workforce preparing to ballot on industrial action. The Lord Chancellor and the Prime Minster must now commit to significant investment in the front-line services of probation so it can cope with the additional work our members are having to deal with.”

    In his speech at conference, Lord Chancellor Alex Norris made reference to unpaid work being more visible and a tougher community sentence. However, unpaid work has only two thirds of the staff it requires to function effectively.

    Ian Lawrence General Secretary said: “There simply aren’t the staff across the service to do the job that is being asked of them. It isn’t just about early releases, the probation service manages over 200,000 people on probation.

    “If the government is serious about supporting victims better then it must take the probation crisis seriously. You cannot solve the prisons crisis unless probation is fully functioning and provides a real alternative to custody. Instead, more work is dumped on probation without providing our members with a decent salary.”

    Napo is currently in a national dispute with HMPPS over workloads. It is likely to launch a formal ballot for industrial action in mid-October following a strong result from its indicative ballot over the summer. It’s also possible that this ballot will include a question on industrial action in the event that current pay negotiations fail to produce an acceptable pay offer.

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  2. Danny Shaw on Twitter:-

    EARLY RELEASE is about to start.
    700 prisoners freed on Thursday..650 later in October...by June 4,500 will be out.
    * These are prisoners serving fixed-term (standard determinate) sentences, freed after 33% in custody, rather than 40%; or at 50% point, instead of 66%.
    * After huge political row, Govt belatedly excluded a range of violent criminals & sex offenders. But domestic abusers are not excluded - and there's justifiable concern about the risks they pose on release and how victims will be protected.
    * Scheme is called the 'earned progression model'. Original idea is that prisoners would 'earn' release through good behaviour. Reality is it's a scheme to free up space. Without it, projections are that jails would run out of room: prison population was forecast to rise by 3,000 a year hitting 100,000 by 2032.
    * Experts say because of all the exclusions, prison capacity will remain very tight & a new early release scheme may be needed in the future.
    * An added problem is that so many ex-prisoners are sent back to jail (recalled) for reoffending or breaching the terms of their release that jails fill up quickly. That's especially true for those freed without somewhere to live, a job to go to or support in the community.
    * Govt says: don't worry we'll tag prisoners on release & track movements of some of the most serious through GPS. But National Audit Office report said 9,000 offenders who should have had tags fitted didn't & recent inspection report laid bare shocking tagging failings - delays and poor monitoring.
    * Probation Service will have to pick up the slack -they are horrendously overstretched and almost 2,000 short of their 'target' staffing level. Police will also have much more to do with so many extra offenders in the community.
    * True: the Govt is building new prisons & houseblocks - 14,000 extra places by 2031 are promised, but planning permission issues have already held up work at two sites in Lancashire & Buckinghamshire. I'd be surprised if they get to 14,000 in 5 years.
    * What Govt should be doing is getting some of the 4,000 unused prison places back online. Why didn't they prioritise maintenance & safety work before devising an early release scheme?
    * Prison staff shortages mean some jails, like Milsike, Norwich & Swaleside, operate at below capacity. Recruit more prison officers, increase their pay and you may avoid another early release scheme.

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  3. From InsideTime:-

    Speed up probation recruitment and let regions innovate, say inspectors

    Delays in the vetting of job applicants are creating staff shortages in the Probation Service and undermining its efforts to keep the public safe, inspectors have warned.

    HM Inspectorate of Probation last week published its national findings following a review of public protection measures delivered by all 12 regions of the Probation Service across England and Wales. The report says the vetting delays are a major headache for the areas and mean staff are kept under unreasonable pressure.

    Martin Jones, HM Chief Inspector of Probation, said: “Frontline probation staff are working hard to keep communities safe, often in very difficult circumstances. However, public protection work was not being delivered consistently well enough to provide the assurance that victims, communities and partner agencies were entitled to expect.

    “Persistent staffing shortages and workforce instability, combined with inconsistent information-sharing with the police and children’s services, meant that practitioners did not always have what they needed to identify, understand and manage risk effectively. As a result, opportunities to recognise patterns of harmful behaviour, safeguard children, protect victims and respond to escalating concerns were too often missed.”

    The report also said that information received from the police about domestic abuse was of insufficient quality to be meaningful in assessing risk in almost one-fifth of cases.

    This report was written after inspecting 858 cases, and conducting 711 case inspection interviews with practitioners, examining assessment, planning, implementation and delivery, and reviewing, all through the lens of public protection work.

    The Inspectorate found that vetting delays remain a significant barrier to recruitment, hindering the timely filling of vacancies and, in some cases, causing successful candidates to withdraw before appointment. Also, increased workforce instability, and decreased resilience across probation staffing, was directly impacting the quality and consistency of risk management practice. Mr Jones says these longstanding problems do not simply mean a busier workforce, but also contribute to a heightened risk to public protection.

    Mr Jones added: “Our findings show that regions cannot resolve these issues alone. National action is needed to stabilise the workforce, strengthen information-sharing with the police and children’s services, and support practitioners to make full and confident use of the information available to them. We also need the right responsibilities sitting in the right place: clear national consistency where it matters most, alongside room for regions to use their initiative, where our evidence shows the best outcomes are delivered. If our recommendations are adopted, the foundations for sustained improvement will be in place.”

    This report comes out at a time when probation is under increased scrutiny as some prisoners are awaiting early release under the Government’s new scheme that was delayed whilst the new Justice Secretary reviewed the proposals from the Sentencing Act.

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  4. John Podmore on Twitter:-

    "In Jan–Mar 2026, 13,193 people were recalled to prison while just 12,977 were released. That’s 216 more recalls than releases."

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  5. X has been involved in multifarious schemes which have resulted in handing over £many-hundreds-of-millions of public funds to multinational privateers for no benefit whatsoever to the UK taxpayer.

    So where is X now? Sacked? In jail? In disgrace?

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  6. From Twitter:-

    "Staff in MoJ HQ have long held the view that a never ending stream of arse-covering processes are in some mysterious way equivalent to actual outcomes."

    ReplyDelete