- Earlier release depends on probation.
- Community sentences replacing short custody depend on probation.
- Electronic monitoring, restriction zones, curfews and tighter licence conditions depend on probation.
- Recall decisions depend on probation.
- OFPS depends on probation.
- Public reassurance that people released earlier can be “safely managed in the community” depends on probation.
We have been here before. There was industrial action during TR, but the Government still pushed the reforms through. Whatever view people take of what happened then, the lesson surely has to be that symbolic action is not enough.
If industrial action happens this time, it needs to have a clear objective and it needs to matter operationally. There is little point in a protest that allows the machinery of the system to continue almost unaffected while everybody congratulates themselves for having “made their voice heard”.
The Government needs probation functioning. That is the bargaining power. And this cannot be reduced to “staff want more money”. Pay matters because retention matters, but the dispute is much bigger than that: workload, professional judgement, staffing, experience, safety, OFPS, the removal of workload visibility and the expectation that probation will absorb every consequence of the prison crisis.
Practitioners have spent years being told that they are essential, valued and the “hidden heroes” of the justice system. Fine. Then perhaps it is time to discover exactly how essential probation really is. Because if the Government genuinely cannot deliver its sentencing reforms, early-release programme and community supervision model without probation, then “without probation none of this can happen” should not just be a slogan in a press release. It should be the starting point for negotiations.
And if ever there were a moment for the unions to stop asking politely, stop “urging”, stop accepting warm words and actually use the collective power of the workforce they represent, surely this is it. The Government has built its solution to the prison crisis on the assumption that probation will somehow absorb the consequences. Perhaps probation should finally stop making that assumption safe for them.
Anon
"if ever there were a moment for the unions to stop asking politely, stop “urging”, stop accepting warm words and actually use the collective power of the workforce they represent, surely this is it."
ReplyDeleteWon't happen. Want it to, but it won't. Union members who are unsure will be threatened, intimidated & bullied into being frightened about 'consequences' for their careers.
Is there a significant number of staff who *could* make a stand?
napo's 2025 AR21 is now published. It shows just shy of 7,000 members for year ended 31 Dec 2025 out of about 13,000 po/pso/spo staffing complement, ~54%.
The ar21 also shows a total wage bill at ~£770,000 of which the gen sec got ~£125,000 (106k + 19k pension) including pension contributions... a £5k lift from 2024 (104k + 16k pension)
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a7c83e674a4fffff664d0a2/AR21_2025.pdf
That is perhaps the uncomfortable question: is there a significant enough number of staff prepared to make a stand?
ReplyDeleteNapo’s newly published AR21 gives us 6,895 members at the end of 2025. That’s not an insignificant body of people.
And I completely understand the pessimism. People have mortgages, families and careers. Probation also has a culture in which individual accountability weighs incredibly heavily, so telling somebody to withdraw their labour when they are carrying high-risk cases is not remotely the same as casually saying “everyone should strike”.
But surely that is precisely why collective action matters.
One practitioner refusing something is exposed.
Thousands refusing together is an industrial dispute.
And I think we need to be very careful about allowing fear of “what might happen to my cases/career if I take lawful industrial action?” to become the very mechanism that makes meaningful industrial action impossible.
Because look at the position probation is now in.
Government needs probation to implement early release.
It needs probation to implement the Progression Model.
It needs probation to deliver OFPS.
It needs probation to manage increased community sentences.
It needs probation to operate greatly expanded electronic monitoring, restriction zones and licence conditions.
It needs probation to assess breaches and make recall decisions.
And simultaneously we are being told that probation does not have sufficient capacity to do the job it already has.
If nearly 7,000 Napo members cannot exercise meaningful collective leverage now, when virtually the entire Government solution to the prison crisis depends upon probation continuing to function, when exactly will they ever be in a stronger position?
Interestingly, the same AR21 records no industrial-action ballot during 2025. It also confirms that Napo actually maintains an Action Fund specifically to help offset financial loss suffered by members taking bona fide industrial action.
So perhaps the question needs putting back to the union leadership as much as to individual members.
What is the strategy?
What are the demands?
What would meaningful action look like?
How will members worried about professional consequences be protected and supported?
And what is the point at which “urging Government to act” becomes accepting that Government isn’t going to act unless failing to do so has consequences?
Because I don’t particularly want probation staff to strike.
I want conditions in probation to change so they don’t have to.
But after years of warnings, reports, inspections, workload crises, recruitment problems, experienced practitioners leaving and endless promises that concerns are being heard, I’m struggling to see what leverage remains if the collective one isn’t actually used.
The Government has made itself extraordinarily dependent upon probation.
That ought to give the workforce power.
The tragedy would be having that power and being too frightened, divided or badly led to use it.
I checked the latest official HMPPS statistics, published on 20 August. At 30 June 2026.
ReplyDeleteIt gets better — or worse. The latest figures show:
* 5,465 FTE Band 4 POs: down 2% in one quarter.
* 5,924 FTE Band 3 PSOs: up substantially — 13.6% over the year.
* 1,602 FTE Band 5 SPOs: up 5%.
* PO shortfall: 1,935 FTE, against HMPPS’s own staffing requirement.
* 2,099 FTE PQiP trainees in training.
HM Inspectorate had already found nationally that around half of staff said their workloads were unmanageable, with PO workloads particularly high. It also reported high sickness — around 15.5 days annually for POs — and described staffing shortages as a significant concern.
And there’s an even bigger capacity figure sitting in an MoJ document: its prison-capacity statement says the projected sentence-management capacity gap for 2026/27 is 3,150 FTE across all grades. It explicitly acknowledges that recruitment growth started from a low baseline and “has not yet fully offset increased workload pressure or historic deficits in staffing.
And experience matters too: only 34.4% of Band 4 POs had 10+ years’ HMPPS service, down from 36.1% a year earlier. HMPPS cautions that its service measure isn’t identical to time as a PO, but the direction is still relevant.
HM Inspectorate has found PO vacancy rates exceeding 30% in some regions. Yorkshire and the Humber was operating at only 89% of its overall staffing target when inspected, with inspectors explicitly identifying workforce instability and high vacancy rates as continuing problems.
Yet this is the workforce expected to absorb earlier prison releases, sentencing reform, OFPS, new supervision arrangements, expanded electronic monitoring, restriction zones and whatever else is announced between now and October.
And every time anyone asks whether probation has the capacity to do it safely, somebody pulls the string:
“£700 million.”
“1,300 trainees.”
“Recruitment targets.”
Those aren’t measures of operational capacity.
Here’s one that is:
Required POs: 7,380.
Actual POs: 5,445.
Missing: 1,935.
Perhaps ministers could start putting that figure in their press releases.
And perhaps the question isn’t how many people are being recruited. It’s why, on the eve of the biggest change to probation in years, HMPPS is still operating with barely three quarters of the qualified PO workforce it says it needs.
You cannot recruit your way out of an experience crisis overnight. You certainly cannot announce thousands of trainees while the qualified workforce is actually shrinking and call the capacity problem solved.
These aren’t disgruntled practitioners’ figures. They’re HMPPS’s.
The 2,099 pquips are included in the pso/band 3 figure @ 5,924
Delete(5924+5465+1602) = 12,991 or ~13,000
[see @08:07 above - they weren't far off]
But all in all the argument is the same - its too little too late by napo; 7% of probation staff who voted in the indicative ballot said 'not interested in strike action, thank you'. And as pointed out below, 5 weeks until a truckload of shit hits a reallllly big fan.
Still, rest easy that there's £55,000 available in the Action Fund, to be shared out amongst 6,895 members, about £8 each.
Remember the Cabinet Office & its Modernisation Fund to grease the wheels of TR & line the pockets of the privateers? That was in the region of £80million (it will never ever be confirmed) & led to many CRCs pocketing the money intended for laying off staff. So they could afford to get rid of staff, but not recuit or retain them?
No strike = no future.
I was browsing Civil Service Jobs yesterday, there are numerous vacancies paying more and with lesser expectations than those placed on Probation Officers.
ReplyDeleteI came across an advert for Probation Officer returners and was not in the least bit surprised to see that the glorious leaders are offering to re-employ those who have left for whatever reason on lesser terms than they were formerly employed on.
Has anybody told them there is a recruitment crisis?
Yes I’ve just been looking at civil service jobs and it made me feel as a PO so undervalued compared to pay and responsibilities. I’ve also been looking at my local council jobs and even social workers level 1 start on £38500 and youth justice more. I don’t know why the unions are not pushing for immediate reviews of job descriptions for Po and PSo roles - rather than waiting over 3 yrs for HMPPs to do it - oh yes they prob realised we are worth more and want to delay paying us what we are worth !
DeleteTry this.
Delete"The Government is advertising an £80,000 role to train its civil servants in how to use AI, but experience in AI is not a requirement of the position…"
So if you wanted to return, they would ‘consider’ your salary banding………I think the required phrase is that they can FRO…..
ReplyDeleteFive weeks today is the first of October!
ReplyDeleteThat seems to me to be very little time to organise any form of action by the union?
Interestingly, the last few months has saw the POA ramp up its campaign to regain the right to strike by its membership.
It might appear to some that those that can't take action are fighting for the right to do so, whilst those that can take action seem reluctant to do so.
CIRC 067: RIGHT TO STRIKE CAMPAIGN – CONTACT YOUR MP
POA Circular 33/2026 requested membership assistance, regarding contacting MPs about the Right to Strike. To date 71 Members of Parliament have responded to members’ letters, in both a positive and negative way. These responses have been posted on our social media and have been noted in the ‘corridors of power’ at Westminster. The Executive request that those members who have not yet contacted their MP, do so at their earliest opportunity. This can be done by:
Email your MP from this web address –
'Getafix
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/world-first-crackdown-to-restrict-offenders-freedom-and-give-it-back-to-victims
DeleteDangerous offenders could be confined to small areas just a few miles wide
DeleteScheme to curb offenders’ freedom while giving victims greater peace of mind
Victims will have a say in setting boundaries, helping them live without fear
GPS tagging to track offenders’ movements, with the risk of recall to prison
New “restriction zones” will allow probation services in England and Wales to severely limit where some of the most dangerous offenders can go for as long as they see fit - restricting their freedom while giving it back to victims.
The first measure of its kind anywhere in the world, the new restrictions have been directly shaped by the experiences and campaigning of victims, who will have a say in how individual zones are drawn up.
The new scheme is a more rigorous version of “exclusion zones”, which ban offenders from specific locations such as a victim’s home or place of work.
Offenders can instead be confined to a tightly defined area, giving victims greater freedom to travel without the fear of unexpectedly coming face-to-face with their offender.
Offenders subject to GPS monitoring can have their movements tracked around the clock, allowing probation to identify breaches and take swift action when the rules are broken - including recalling them to prison.
Probation officers will draw up zones which will put victims first, giving them the freedom to go about their daily lives without fear, but ensure offenders can still access vital appointments and services that help to reduce their chances of reoffending.
Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice, Alex Norris, said:
No victim should fear the shadow of an abuser on their back.
That’s why we’re putting limits on dangerous offenders, confining them to tightly controlled areas and giving victims greater freedom to get on with their lives.
And with GPS technology helping probation keep track of offenders’ movements, those who step outside the boundaries can be quickly identified and face being sent back to prison.
It is simple: offenders should carry the consequences of their crimes, not their victims.
The zones can last for as long as they are needed to manage the risk posed by offenders on licence, with reviews taking place at least every three months.
Further details on eligibility will be announced in due course. The Government will work closely with victims’ groups and other stakeholders as this measure is rolled out to ensure it is operating as intended.
Hard-working probation staff play a vital role in keeping the public safe, that is why the government is investing £700 million in probation and community services by 2028/29.
This includes the biggest ever expansion of electronic monitoring and recruiting 1,300 new probation officers this year on top of the 2,300 recruited in the past two years, keeping serious offenders under closer watch and better protecting victims.
Public safety will always be the government’s priority. Last week, the Justice Secretary confirmed he was fast-tracking a plan to keep more of the most dangerous offenders behind bars, on top of murderers and those serving sentences for rape, serious child sexual abuse and grooming offences who are already blocked from any changes to their release dates.
This will include the faster deportation of foreign criminals, better use of the women’s estate and reviewing the unjust IPP sentences. He is expected to update Parliament in early September.
How are officers going to have time for this ! They might as well give us an extra monitor to screen offenders live movements 24/7 . The amount of paperwork / emails / nd entries needed for EMS breaches currently is ridiculous- this will add just more work for PP’s. Rename me a EMS administrator
DeleteUnison are more bothered about letting cross dressing men use the ladies. Hope NAPO have their priorities in order.
DeleteSo, it’s 2:30 am, little Johnny has had one over the eight, triggering his alcohol tag……he is at his ‘mates’ house who told him to ignore his curfew at 11 pm but being the good little solder he is he decides to walk home and in the dark mistakes Sevestapol terrace for Florizel street and breaches his proximity tag……he gets home safely and decides to get his head down…..that’s three breaches to address at 9am by his PO …..in a bad night if you have two or three in a similar position it will be afternoon before you have done all the paperwork……but don’t worry the SPO says let the AI do it……but as his PO is covering two officers on maternity and stress leave, it’s closer to mid afternoon before it’s get done….in the meantime little Billy has been picked up by the Feds for dropping his trousers in Tesco,it was in Lidl that triggered the original offence last time….and little Amelia has failed to turn up for her appointment ……..two Parole reports to be completed by Friday……a Mappa referral for little Billy at the insistence of the SPO and all day is spent trying to complete a housing referral for houses that don’t exist.
ReplyDeleteThe next day on the all staff call, the PO is told how much they are valued but the questions and comments are turned off as the management don’t want to hear what the valued staff members think…..it now turns out that Little Billy held a worker against their will for 15 seconds and has also been charged with False imprisonment triggering an SFO…………..but don’t worry our staff are the heartbeat of the organisation…………..a fairy tale or an apocryphal future, coming soon to an office near you…….with apologies to the London and Manchester offices as it has already arrived there………
So the annual recruitment fiasco is now complete. Three different closing dates tells the tale, they cannot recruit enough staff, nobody wants the job and the attrition rate amongst the newbies is high. The reasons are simple, the recruitment process is flawed, partially because of the online process and like the promotion interviews give people the opportunity to inflate their knowledge and experience and then are found wanting in the role. Those of us with 25 years plus service are seen as dinosaurs by the management, the young thrusters are all yes people and cannot deal with push back and this will not work. Recalls are through the roof because POs are not as versatile or able to deal with challenges and I am aware of certain SPOs operating a recall process to reduce caseloads especially those with 18 months and less to serve. There is a culture of giving many license conditions to those that don’t really need them but it is a just in case scenario not a fully fledged risk assessment and management process. There are far too many SPOs that should be back on the floor learning the profession and get all these QDOs back on field duties and have their crayons and bar charts removed and PTAs should have at least ten years post qualifying experience. Hark, I hear why don’t you take up a SPO role, because I am not a mouthpiece for management, I can do a lot more good managing complex and risky cases and pushing back and annoying the management and not ticking boxes, keeping a list of things that I have not done this week because I did not have the time. Work your hours and push back, we are in a position of strength and the worst they can do is threaten you with competency, but if you get your team to do it with you, you have the power and the upper hand. Be strong, be brave but most of all be honest to yourself and live a life, switch the phone and laptop off on Friday and leave it until 0900 Monday morning and switch off every day when you want to but only do the hours and then the SPOs will have to pick up the incomplete work not you and not your colleagues.
ReplyDeleteA lot of spo hating here
DeleteIt looks quite truthful to be honest. My current experience of SPOs is that they have limited knowledge of complex cases, are dedicated yes people, only interested in themselves and hang the consequences of their poor overworked staff. Most of them have gone to SPO because they cannot face the punters. They regularly throw their staff under the bus rather than admit they made a mistake. Management by rote not by leadership. Let’s just agree their are no leaders in NPS just subservient yes and we can do people, hence the high sickness rate and resignations even the shoe bloke got out.
DeleteThe SPO hating in this thread is out of order.
DeleteSimply sharing my thanks for sharing this 16.02 and all those who daily contribute and keep alive the beating heart of this blog and its outreach/connection. Very best wishes to all those working across Probation iangould5
ReplyDeleteNever underestimate the unions' ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory!
ReplyDeleteCan't help but think that when the Ministry of Justice feel confident enough to anounce "A World First Crackdown" (going global, not national) just a matter of weeks before its implementation, then they have no concerns whatsoever in what resistance they might meet from the probation service or its union.
Delete'Getafix
Same old shyte:
Delete"Hard-working probation staff play a vital role in keeping the public safe, that is why the government is investing £700 million in probation and community services by 2028/29.
This includes the biggest ever expansion of electronic monitoring and recruiting 1,300 new probation officers this year on top of the 2,300 recruited in the past two years, keeping serious offenders under closer watch and better protecting victims."
The lies hidden between-the-lines are becoming ever more exposed as the toxic charade plunders the public purse:
"£700 million in probation and community services... This includes the biggest ever expansion of electronic monitoring" - oh.
So its not £700million invested in probation, as has been claimed for the last two years, but a shared pot with the £multi-million tagging companies, covering their pilots, product development & subsequent lucrative contracts.
And the "2,300 recruited in the past two years" are, per hmpps data, only 2,099 fte in reality.
"Further details on eligibility will be announced in due course. The Government will work closely with victims’ groups and other stakeholders as this measure is rolled out to ensure it is operating as intended."
-
"Just like the tr shitshow we're back to making pisspoor decisions as we go along, bending & swaying in the winds of vocal protests, media campaigns & lobbying from other groups with vested interests. Whatever happens it will, of course, all be just as we intended."
They are such disingenuous, venal arseholes.
I've been slagging off and criticising HMPPS for as long as anyone and continue to do so but, I have to admit that the new Tiering at last acknowledges that endless, pointless weekly appointments have caused more harm than good to both Officers and Offenders. It's not perfect, for example having a blanket ban on all Mappa cases from moving into the final 3rd of the new system is cowardly and pointless. Much of the 'new' way of working come October will be familiar with anyone here who has over 15 years of service as its a just an updated rehash of how we used to work with some shiny new bits, minus carting around files a foot thick! I wonder how much they have spent basically on consultants when they could have just asked some of us dinosaurs what worked well in the past.
ReplyDeleteOh please !
DeleteIts just another step towards de-professionalisation and supervision by algorith. I'm sure the 25-year-olds that now make up half the policy units are moist with pride, but its thankfully doomed to failure due to being ridiculously over-thought and over-complicated. I don't know where you were working 15 years ago, but its not a lot like anything that I've seen over many more years than that.
DeleteNPS is now a sausage factory, with prescribed toolkits for offenders. The limited experience of managers is fully evident and they have a ‘do it’ attitude, not because it is right, but because they are afraid to say no or feedback from experienced operational POs this is not going to work. Respect has to be earned and the majority of the managers have a lot of overtime to work to achieve any respect if any. “A boss creates fear, a leader confidence. A boss fixes blame, a leader corrects mistakes. A boss knows all, a leader asks questions. A boss makes work drudgery, a leader makes it interesting.” – Russell H. Ewing
Delete