With Labour deciding to enter into a Dutch auction with the Tories as to who is going to be tougher on criminals in the lead-up to the next general election, news comes in from the statisticians as to likely future incarceration rates. It has to be remembered that the Tories often like to portray any new prisons as 'job opportunities' for any intended location and increasingly are doing their best to keep more people inside and for longer as a way to 'protect the public'. This from Russell Webster neatly summarises the likely direction of travel:-
Our Prison Population Could Be Over 100,000 by 2027Projections
The latest official prison population projections published yesterday (23 February 2023) by the Ministry of Justice and the Office for National Statistics demonstrate the uncertainties at the heart of our criminal justice system. The headline figures are confusing, to say the least:
- The prison population is projected to increase, with a central estimate of 94,400 by March 2025
- The estimate for two years later, March 2027, is within a huge range of 93,100 to 106,300.
In the first few years of the projection period, the projected rise in the prison population is primarily due to an increase in receptions of determinate sentenced offenders. This is because courts are assumed to dispose of more cases than they receive in order to clear the additional trial backlog that arose during COVID-19 restrictions and the Criminal Bar Association strike action.
The total prison population is projected to continue to increase over the full projection period. This is partly driven by rising police officer numbers which are expected to increase charge volumes and therefore increase the future prison population.
There are several sources of uncertainty for long-term prison population, particularly around future levels of demand entering the Criminal Justice System (CJS).
The publication presents three prison population projections to assess the impact of differing potential upstream demand scenarios. All three projections reflect what the statisticians call “plausible scenarios for future police and prosecutorial activity”. All three scenarios take account of expected increases in police officer numbers and project higher long-term prison demand, but vary factors such as charges per police officer, the crime mix entering the courts, and average custodial sentence lengths. You can see how the different projections unfold in the chart reproduced from the report below.
Scenarios
The scenarios are not intended to reflect the full range of demand risk for the CJS, but rather to estimate the plausible range of police and prosecutorial activity – a large driver of future prison demand over the mid to long-term. The statisticians are keen to emphasise that the projections do not represent the highest and lowest possible prison demand or the full range of uncertainty surrounding the projections.
There are several additional sources of uncertainty including the speed with which the CJS recovers from the pandemic – Crown Court backlogs remain very high. Other uncertainties relate to future crime types (in particular which types of crime police prioritise) and the volumes of crime and how many are processed through the CJS.
The plethora of recent policy changes (many of which relate to extending maximum sentence times and reducing the likelihood of parole) have not all yet been implemented and therefore make it hard for statisticians to model their impact on prison numbers.
The three scenarios which result in this very imprecise projection of the prison population being between 93,100 to 106,300 by March 2027 are:
High upstream demand – police and CPS crime mix and charges per officer start to return to pre-COVID (2019) levels, resulting in a large increase in the volume of cases coming into court. Additionally, Average Custodial Sentence Lengths (ACSL) return to 2019 levels.
Low upstream demand – police and CPS crime mix and charges per officer stay at lower levels observed in 2021 and do not return to pre-COVID behaviour. Similarly, ACSLs reflect 2021 levels.
Central upstream demand – crime mix remains as observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. While there are some increases in charges per officer, it remains below pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, ACSLs reflect levels observed from 2019 to 2021.When trying to make sense of these very large rises in our prison population (there were 83,687 people in prison last Friday 17 February, itself a jump of 1149 people in the previous four week period), it is important to remember that, along with Scotland, England & Wales already incarcerates a large proportion of its citizens than any other Western European country.
Russell Webster
raab talking on kuennsberg 9am this morning bbc1
ReplyDeleteI wish Russell Webster would add opinions to his descriptive texts. Imagine the chaos when sentencing and imprisonment hits its peak. Prisons already over capacity and probation buckling if HMIP is anything to go by. Usual ignoring of the probation service unable to supervise increasing community sentences and released prisoners except in Wales where caseloads are 26. The One HMPPS programme has already failed and a 2 year old promise of 2500 trainee probation officers won’t be enough.
ReplyDeleteA FOI request this week sought by campaigners against the building of a new super prison next to HMP Gartree in Leicestershire revealed that HMP Gartree itself is operating with a staff shortage of 55.
DeleteThe question campaigners then asked is "If the MoJ can't fill staff vacancies in the existing estate, then how do they propose to recruit the number of staff required to operate a new build super prison safely?"
Coupled with that I noticed the following in inside times that reports that one third of all prisoners are now new recruits!
Rocketing prison numbers, staff shortages and inexperience doesn't really augur well for the CJS I think.
https://insidetime.org/one-third-of-prison-officers-are-new-recruits/
'Getafix
Caseloads in Wales are not "26". You refer to the news article posted by Jim recently. The article is a bit of fluff aimed at recruitment into the service.
DeleteWow! So you’re saying what your Probation Officers are telling the media, endorsed by Head of PDU Swansea Deanne Martin, are LIES?
Delete“His 26-odd cases are mainly high and very high risk. "It is a difficult job,"
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/swansea-probation-courts-crime-rehabilitation-26308728?utm_source=app
0753 If he did then he would lose major sources of income. His site is funded by his various sponsors and he does a good job reporting the news without upsetting them. It is a fine balance as he is not a campaigner or reformer but has a good reputation as a paid consultant and facilitator. He gains access by being viewed as an impartial expert observer and critical friend rather than a straight up political critic and agitator. He is quite savvy is Russ and would never bite the hand that feeds him too obviously and too hard. He does however produce material that others can use and run with.
DeleteSo you’re saying Russell Webster provides propaganda and lies then. No impartiality. No critical thinking. Sounds like another “expert” generating income and job opportunities while probation officers suffer the misery and the clients are failed.
DeleteIt seems to me that Russell Webster is providing useful facts and information about trends. There's a useful saying about the facts speaking for themselves - and sometimes those facts include political facts: Russell ends his piece by reminding readers that the UK is the most punitive of all Western European countries. Some people would think this a good thing, others would think it bad - let the readers make up their own minds. We don't need the opinions of others to know what we think. Stick with the facts, Russell - it's the social influencers who are the real propagandists.
DeleteThanks Russell! Potato potarto. If a few more people had provided opinions at TR, Unification and OneHMPPS then probation wouldn’t be in this mess.
DeleteIf the apathetic workforce had provided an opinion through a ballot, then maybe that would have made a difference. But that aside, all informed opinion during the consultation process on TR was against it. It made no difference because of a simple political fact: the government was ideologically driven. Pity the workforce weren't similarly driven. So don't blame outsiders for the 'mess', blame the insiders - the docile workforce which failed to test its power.
DeleteProbation officers are victims of organisational abuse. Some pretend it’s not happening, others believe it’s what they deserve. They can’t fight back, they don’t know how to, some don’t even know there’s a problem. The managers, unions, professional organisations and so-called objective consultants all serve to keep the Probation workforce docile and subservient. This is why the likes of Russell Webster give no opinion, so as not to upset the carefully stacked HMPPS apple-cart. Fair play to all making a living, but don’t tell me it wouldn’t be different if those that could spoke up for probation instead of just stating facts and figures.
DeleteOf course you can fight back. You may not achieve a return to the probation service (nor the dreadful trusts) but you can unite and cause havoc by sabotaging from within. I posted about how a few weeks ago. It’s anarchic and worth a try….
DeleteThis is what the sick self-serving nobhead raab has wanted all along - to be the superhero arbiter of justice for desperate families:
ReplyDelete"The mother of a woman killed by her pilot husband more than a decade ago has called on the justice secretary to intervene over his possible release.
British Airways captain Robert Brown admitted the manslaughter of his wife Joanna, 46, in 2010 and was jailed for 26 years.
Her mother Diana Parkes, 83, asked Dominic Raab to meet her to discuss her family's concerns.
Mr Raab said he would look at the parole case "very rigorously". "
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-64776863
For those wanting to crunch the numbers:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001jc6d
Released On: 22 Feb 2023
Available for over a year
The Justice Secretary Dominic Raab says crime reoffending rates in England and Wales have fallen significantly since the Conservatives came to power. We ask whether he’s right and look more broadly at crime and conviction rates with former BBC home affairs correspondent Danny Shaw.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18188610
DeleteMay 2012
A record number of offenders sentenced for serious crimes had committed previous offences, according to figures for 2011.
Some 90% of those sentenced in England and Wales had offended before - and almost a third had committed or were linked to 15 or more crimes.
Reoffending rates were highest among serious offenders who had been jailed.
Ministry of Justice officials say the figures show a "clear trend" of a rising re-offending rate.
"In the 12 months ending March 2010, there were around 680,0003 offenders who were cautioned, convicted (excluding immediate custodial sentences) or released from custody. Just under 180,000 of these offenders committed a proven re-offence within a year. This gives a one-year proven re-offending rate of 26.3 per cent."
Delete"The adult reoffending rate for the July to September 2017 cohort was 28.7% and the rate has remained broadly flat since 2006. Almost 118,000 proven reoffences were committed over the one-year follow-up period by around 29,000 of adults."
"1.2 Reoffending rates
Turning to reoffending rates in England and Wales, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) reported that the proven reoffending rate for the April to June 2020 offender cohort was 29%. This was a 2.7% increase from the same quarter in 2019, representing the largest year-on-year increase since 2009."
2010 - 26.3%
2017 - 28.7%
2022 - 29%
For those just wanting to sit in a corner & giggle thru the pain & tears:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001jcc2
Have you experienced working in a raised risk environment when it comes to covid-19? If the UK were in the EU we would benefit from this:
ReplyDeleteEU commission: “Member States recognise COVID-19 as an occupational disease if contracted by workers in disease prevention, health and social care, in domiciliary assistance, or (during a pandemic) in other sectors where there is an outbreak..”
https://osha.europa.eu/en/oshnews/eu-commission-recommends-recognising-covid-19-occupational-disease-certain-sectors-and-during-pandemic
Well we’re not in the EU because 51% of the population voted for Brexit because they stupidly believed immigrants were taking our jobs. Now they’re waking up and smelling the coffee that their small minds were duped by Tory and right wingers profiting off the mess we’re in.
Deletenearly time for another dose of parole
ReplyDeleteOpening sequence at HMP Stocken... prisoner says "I don't know what to expect"
ReplyDeleteHas no-one spoken to him, discussed the process with him, spent any time at all with him?
Having just watched the sequence discussing the index offnce - what? how? uh? He was like a remand prisoner at psr stage, not 14 years post-incarceration.
ReplyDeleteThis just doesn't feel right.
sorry, parole board, i'm done here; had enough. How many caricatures can you fit into 5 hours of tv?
ReplyDeleteThe Parole Board programme is more black comedy than fly-on-the-wall, positively Kafkaesque. The parole chair in the HMP Stocken case tells the applicant, who's already been in prison for 14 years (tariff), that he needs further testing in closed condition! In days gone by such a prisoner would have been in open conditions probably at the 12-year point. I got no sense of an independent parole board in action in the programme - rather they come across as mere well-rewarded algorithms, rather than independents interested in truly balancing the risks. Not much mention either on what the prison system has provided by way of rehabilitation, above and beyond incarceration. You could run a better parole system by using real algorithms - and cutting out all the sanctimony, thus saving a few quid (21 million, on 2022 figures) on expenses for a useless quango.
DeleteA highly qualified court officer, backed up by sound admin, with a mission (no not a fucking target) to divert those convicted from custodial sentences. Also backed up by a credible offer of probation service alternative, and strengthened by good local connections and a strong relationship with the courts. Boom.
ReplyDeleteArh diversion from jail. This 9s where it's all going pear shaped. There is no desire for any diversionary routes to rehabilitation. Jail offers a building regime for Tory donors who build. A place to hold many more thousands and give jobs to Tory voting turn keys. A place to illustrate tough on the causes of crime the offender. In case anyone says social circumstances.
Deletehttps://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/controlling-or-coercive-behaviour-statutory-guidance/draft-controlling-or-coercive-behaviour-statutory-guidance-accessible
ReplyDeletehttps://www.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/hmiprobation/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/09/Report-Domestic-Abuse-the-work-undertaken-by-CRCs.pdf
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/woman-jailed-20-campaign-domestic-125143002.html
"... following Spencer’s arrest, the problems continued during Family Court hearings as she claimed to be the victim, forcing him to defend himself against false allegations.
"She continued to exert her control over me”, the husband added.
Defence barrister Richard Pratt KC said that there was "little if anything" that could be said in mitigation.
The prison reform boss, who worked for HM Prison and Probation Service, was given an indefinite restraining order on top of her sentence and grinned as she was taken down to the cells."
@sdavieslaw on twitter:
ReplyDelete"Every single expert on criminal justice policy worth their salt has highlighted the crisis that is our criminal justice system. Yet the Lord Chancellor thinks he knows best. Incompetent political decisions have dire consequences for the public."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/28/prisoners-may-have-released-early-dominic-raab-warned-prisons/
@DannyShawNews on twitter:
"NEW Options narrowing for @DominicRaab as prisons in Eng/Wales are at near capacity - an early release scheme is not ruled out. There are spare cells in ‘open’ prisons but Raab is blocking moves there…"
probation in the news again - ex-justice minister buckland muttering about "we've appointed a thousand new probation officers" on BBC news; but he was less than effusive about saving hancock's skin re-the text message leaks.
ReplyDeleteWhy did they appointb1000 staff . It is because they sacked several thousands more in a mental delusion of grayling. They all voted for it now pretend it never happened. Labour opened the door to it. Labour stole our pensions too. Hancock in charge a man who cannot tie a shoe lace. He has TV list the moron . He is not appreciating his ratings will slump further now we discover he actually rejected screening for.the old the bastard. It's like watching Brighton police ask Lankashire police for searching tips and help. All of them awful.
DeleteAssuming he means 1000 new trainees, which is very different from 1000 new probation officers.
DeleteIts turned into a pile-on now - absolutely *everyone* wants a say in who should be kept in prison
ReplyDeletehttps://www.aol.co.uk/carrie-johnson-recalls-worboys-fears-192329204.html
reminder of the chaos raab is unleashing for no reason other than his own agenda:
Deletehttps://prisonreformtrust.org.uk/parole-board-dominic-raab-making-an-already-difficult-job-close-to-impossible/
It's a veritable Who's Who of characters, including royalty! who are clamouring to keep the killer in jail beyond the 13 years that would be the half-way point of his determinate sentence. I think you could bet your house on Raab referring this case to the 'independent' parole board. Sorry to have to use inverted commas, but it reflects my low confidence in the Board's ability to be guided by reason rather than political expediency. The legislation under which this can happen was originally intended only to apply to terrorists, but give the arm of retribution an inch and it takes a mile. The only argument deployable to keep him in prison is protection of the public and whilst this may be an easier argument to make regarding terrorists, it's somewhat weaker in domestic violence cases. It's perfectly understandable that relatives of murder victims never want the perpetrator released. However, no evidence has been cited to suggest he's a risk to the victim's relatives or the public. This is all about retribution: keep him in jail for another 13 years. The case could well open the floodgates to lots more applications to politicians to do the 'right thing'. We'll end up with more politicians kowtowing to popular outrage, whilst doing their reputations no harm. This campaign is a populist and cynical manipulation of criminal justice. In effect, it says no early release for killers and murderers. In fact, we are halfway down this road anyway, with Raab's veto on moving murderers to open prison conditions. We are going backwards.
DeleteFor those who don't know why johnson's wife is getting involved:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.nationalworld.com/arts-and-culture/film-and-tv/john-worboys-when-was-carrie-symonds-picked-up-where-is-the-black-cab-rapist-now-3178892
"After being offered the vodka, Symonds said: "I downed it, which was stupid, as I just wanted to get home. From that point on I can't really remember what happened.”
"He seemed to be this sad man who had no one to celebrate with him. I pitied him, I didn't feel frightened - I just thought he was weird."
Symonds was left with no memory of the rest of her journey home, and has been left uncertain what Worboys did to her.
Once she returned home, Symonds collapsed in front of her mum while vomiting and laughing hysterically before passing out."
I note that following criticism of MI5 in the report into the Manchester bombing, the Director General accepted responsibility on behalf of the agency for failing to protect the public!
ReplyDeleteNo individual spies were thrown under the bus and blame was accepted by senior managers, as it should be.
Perhaps the same principles might apply in probation in the future. Then again, perhaps not.
Let us hope that the Priviliges Committee add to the prison population by at least one:
ReplyDeletehttps://committees.parliament.uk/publications/34228/documents/188328/default/
(Of course they won't; they can't; but it would be fun)
In full agreement with the comments from Anonymous 22:46 on 2nd March. Hopefully Probation will learn just how counter productive (and cruel and unfair) it is to blame Workers who act in good faith. MI5 Workers also have the added benefit of being in a Secret Service which might protect named and shamed Workers from being thrown under the bus?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/03/gina-coladangelo-matt-hancock-affair-kiss-whatsapp-lockdown/
ReplyDelete- and we pay all of them ridiculously large salaries out of our taxes
What we are all on the probation officer frontline thinking and saying …
ReplyDeleteA justifiable fear among staff is that, in the event of such appalling crimes as those perpetrated by Jordan McSweeney and Damien Bendall, they can face disciplinary action. This is regardless of the impossible workloads they are struggling with, as referred to repeatedly by the HMIP reports. It is particularly invidious that it is always frontline staff who face these proceedings, while those responsible higher up the organisation and in government (Chris Grayling in particular) escape the scrutiny they deserve.
https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2023/mar/03/the-probation-service-is-in-a-desperate-state