Fight and Flight?

We simply have to talk about this. I don't know that much about Joe Biden, but enough to conclude he's clearly a 'good' guy and it's rapidly becoming very apparent he's going to need every ounce of skill and judgement over the coming months in order to deal with the extremely dangerous aftermath of Trump. Having spent hours glued to CNN over the weekend it's pretty clear Wednesday's assault on Congress with shouts of 'hang Mike Pence', a blood bath was in chilling prospect. 

We learn from the Maryland Governor that right at the outset and urgent appeal for assistance by the Capitol Police, he had mobilised 200 specially-trained and equipped riot teams, together with National Guard units ready for deployment. The trouble was authorisation from the Pentagon was inexplicably delayed for hours whilst Trump watched events unfold on TV. 

There is suspicion that Majority House Whip Jim Clyburn had his anonymous-looking office on the upper levels specifically identified to attackers, thus raising very dark suspicions of where at least some police officers' loyalties really lie. It also seems other public bodies such as the FDNY have already started sharing information with the FBI regarding some of their employees being present at the insurrection. 

All these disturbing revelations simply serve to confirm how deep-rooted racism and fascism has become within American society and hence provided the perfect recruiting ground for Trump. His take-over of the Republican Party, ably assisted by the now suddenly 'woken' big tech, has been a disgrace, but one considerably compounded by a staggering number of lawmakers who still voted against Joe Biden's confirmation, despite many being in a state of shock from the attack. All will now have to face possible House and Senate disciplinary action together with open repugnance from colleagues on both sides of the political divide. Some like Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz, possibly being held to account under the 14th Amendment Sect 3. 

Together with the problem of 75 million very disappointed Trump supporters, many of whom are armed to the teeth and have always regarded Washington and Federal Agencies as the enemy, Biden's wish to unite the country is now made significantly more difficult by the urgent and necessary imperative of holding Trump to account. It is said that Vice President Pence is holding the threat of the 25th Amendment in abeyance in order to restrain Trump, whilst Impeachment moves rapidly through the House and if necessary voted upon by Wednesday. 

We are led to believe that passage through the Senate to conviction is much more difficult, but GOP soon-to-be minority Leader Mitch McConell could do the decent thing and expedite the process before January 20th couldn't he? He's been conspicuously quiet since Wednesday though. If not, then the process could be postponed for trial, possibly until after the traditional 100 day milestone thus not hindering the Democrats and Biden from getting to work. Despite Trump having left office it's still necessary of course for many reasons including that of preventing Trump from ever standing for senior public office again. It could also affect his pension entitlement, title and most significantly his place in history as the first President to have been impeached twice and the first to conviction.

Of course now robbed of all access to his social media platforms we don't know for sure what his mood and state of mind actually is right now. It is said he went 'ballistic' when banned permanently by Twitter and that he bitterly regrets making the two 'hostage' videos following events on Wednesday, seemingly under threat of the 25th Amendment being invoked by Pence and a majority of his Cabinet. Apparently Pence and Trump haven't spoken since Wednesday. Decamping to Parlar is getting ever-more difficult and the money is drying up with corporations distancing themselves from Republican donations and payment platforms refusing to facilitate Trump donations. 

So, what will Trump do next? His behaviour so far should have come as no surprise at all because he's signalled it consistently for months and that's going to be very difficult for law enforcement agencies to explain in terms of leaving the Capitol exposed to attack. Trump was desperate to win the election and was never going to admit defeat. He knows his Presidential immunity runs out as soon as he is evicted from the White House and he faces numerous sexual assault allegations, law suits, tax evasion issues, loan repayment demands and now possible criminal investigation and charges for Incitement to Insurrection. The rap sheet is extensive and none of this can be avoided by the unprecedented self-granting of a Pardon, so effectively he's up the proverbial polluted creek with no paddle being obvious. 

The other day I was rash enough to suggest Trump would go to jail. Today I'm going to suggest something even more extraordinary - he's going to flee justice and go into exile. But we know the arms of US justice are long, where could he go both for maximum distance and scope for mischief? Why Russia of course, under Putin's protection and where he would be actively facilitated to continue his promulgation of baseless lies and falsehoods as a de facto President in Exile. Treason? Whatever, clearly an even more dangerous situation not only for domestic security but also world peace and stability involving as it does a disgraced former President in possession of highly classified intelligence. 

Far fetched? No, in fact largely signalled and predicted. The following are extracts from a lengthy article 'Why Trump Can't Afford to Lose' in the New Yorker magazine last November:-  

No American President has ever been charged with a criminal offense. But, as Donald Trump fights to hold on to the White House, he and those around him surely know that if he loses—an outcome that nobody should count on—the presumption of immunity that attends the Presidency will vanish. Given that more than a dozen investigations and civil suits involving Trump are currently under way, he could be looking at an endgame even more perilous than the one confronted by Nixon. The Presidential historian Michael Beschloss said of Trump, “If he loses, you have a situation that’s not dissimilar to that of Nixon when he resigned. Nixon spoke of the cell door clanging shut.” Trump has famously survived one impeachment, two divorces, six bankruptcies, twenty-six accusations of sexual misconduct, and an estimated four thousand lawsuits. Few people have evaded consequences more cunningly. That run of good luck may well end, perhaps brutally, if he loses to Joe Biden. Even if Trump wins, grave legal and financial threats will loom over his second term. 

Barbara Res, whose new book, “Tower of Lies,” draws on the eighteen years that she spent, off and on, developing and managing construction projects for Trump, also thinks that the President is not just running for a second term—he is running from the law. “One of the reasons he’s so crazily intent on winning is all the speculation that prosecutors will go after him,” she said. “It would be a very scary spectre.” She calculated that, if Trump loses, “he’ll never, ever acknowledge it—he’ll leave the country.” Res noted that, at a recent rally, Trump mused to the crowd about fleeing, ad-libbing, “Could you imagine if I lose? I’m not going to feel so good. Maybe I’ll have to leave the country—I don’t know.” It’s questionable how realistic such talk is, but Res pointed out that Trump could go “live in one of his buildings in another country,” adding, “He can do business from anywhere.”

"Mary Trump, like Res, suspects that her uncle is considering leaving the U.S. if he loses the election (a result that she regards as far from assured). If Biden wins, she suggested, Trump will “describe himself as the best thing that ever happened to this country and say, ‘It doesn’t deserve me—I’m going to do something really important, like build the Trump Tower in Moscow.’ ”

The notion that a former American President would go into exile—like a disgraced king or a deposed despot—sounds almost absurd, even in this heightened moment, and many close observers of the President, including Tony Schwartz, the ghostwriter of Trump’s first best-seller, “The Art of the Deal,” dismiss the idea. “I’m sure he’s terrified,” Schwartz told me. “But I don’t think he’ll leave the country. Where the hell would he go?” However, Snyder, the Yale professor, whose specialty is antidemocratic regimes in Eastern Europe, believes that Trump might well abscond to a foreign country that has no extradition treaty with the U.S. “Unless you’re an idiot, you have that flight plan ready,” Snyder said. “Everyone’s telling me he’ll have a show on Fox News. I think he’ll have a show on RT”—the Russian state television network.

On Election Day, the margin of victory may be crucial in determining Trump’s future. If the winner’s advantage in the Electoral College is decisive, neither side will be able to easily dispute the result. But several of Trump’s former associates told me that if there is any doubt at all—no matter how questionable—the President will insist that he has won. Michael Cohen, Trump’s former attorney, told me, “He will not concede. Never, ever, ever.” He went on, “I believe he’s going to challenge the validity of the vote in each and every state he loses—claiming ballot fraud, seeking to undermine the process and invalidate it.” Cohen thinks that the recent rush to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court was motivated in part by Trump’s hope that a majority of Justices would take his side in a disputed election.

Lawrence Douglas, a professor of law at Amherst College and the author of a recent book on the President, “Will He Go?,” predicted that Trump—whether inside the White House or out—will “continue to be a source of chaos and division in the nation.” Douglas, who is co-editing a textbook on transitional justice, told me that he’s uncomfortable with the notion of an incoming Administration prosecuting an outgoing head of state. “That really looks like a tin-pot dictatorship,” he said. He also warned that such a move could be inflammatory because, “to tens of millions of Americans, Trump will continue to be a heroic figure.” Whatever the future holds, Douglas doubts whether Trump could ever fade away contentedly, as many other Presidents have done: “He craves the spotlight, both because it satisfies his narcissism and because he’s been very successful at merchandising it.” Peaceful pursuits might have worked for George W. Bush, but Douglas is certain of one thing about Trump’s future: “This guy is not going to take up painting his feet in the bathtub.”   

The matter was further discussed in this article 'Is President Donald Trump a Flight Risk?' on the Politico website last October 28th and authored by a retired Brigadier General. These are extracts:- 

If Trump loses badly, it is conceivable he could plan a stealth departure sometime during the 11-week period before Inauguration Day, while he still has the protection of legal immunity as a sitting president. Leaving U.S. airspace before he resumes the status of private citizen at noon on January 20 would allow him to escape—or at least delay—dealing face-to-face with many creditors and lawsuits. Classic indicators of preparation for such a move would include fast sales of domestic properties and investments, and a quiet amassing of wealth offshore, out of reach of U.S. authorities. Trump’s family members and trusted corporate staff would likely be heavily involved in orchestrating the relocation.

A chilling alternative, however fanciful, could arise if Trump flees abroad after losing a close, viciously contested election. Hunkered down in a foreign country willing to provide sanctuary, he could conceivably style himself a “president in exile” and incite his die-hard American followers to resist the election results. A degree of domestic upheaval and dangerous division would linger for an extended period until the new administration is able to foster calm and unity.

How might this happen? What methods might a sitting U.S. president use to leave the country on a one-way journey? The choice could be as brazen as not reboarding Air Force One while out of the country at a conference or summit. Cases abound of athletes and artists escaping repressive regimes by refusing to reboard official aircraft and instead negotiating asylum. While on U.S. shores, Trump could find a creative way to slip his Secret Service detail and fly away in a friend’s private jet or foreign aircraft. Sailing away into international waters would also be a plausible option. In 2019, fugitive U.S. computer-security software magnate John McAfee used his yacht to elude the IRS and Securities and Exchange Commission for months until he was arrested in Spain on October 6, 2020. Steve Bannon made news last August when the Coast Guard arrested him while on a foreign yacht off Connecticut.

If all this sounds like a B-grade spy novel, it should. The flight of a U.S. president would be unprecedented, unsettling and profoundly disappointing. As a minimum, a presidential defection would temporarily absorb the resources and attention of a wide range of U.S. defense, intelligence and law enforcement agencies. In more than two centuries of peaceful transfers of presidential power, nothing remotely conceivable like it has ever happened.

I fervently hope we won’t face such a disturbing turn of events. But if there is anything to learn with this president, it is to expect the unexpected. As his unabashed admiration of authoritarian world leaders has shown us these past four chaotic years, Donald Trump values autocrats over democratic government, and places his self-interest well above the sacred trust he was elected to protect and uphold four years ago.

Alarming all this undoubtedly is, at least it should mean Impeachment will proceed to conviction in the Senate, thus affording errant Republican Senators time to repent, albeit at the eleventh hour.