Wednesday 27 January 2021

Here Come the Algorithms

Oh look! All that multiple data-inputting isn't a waste of time after all. That army of bureaucrats at MoJ/HMPPS HQ have a cunning plan to 'mine' the data according to this on the UK Authority website. From the people that gave us OASys and the 'create report' button, what could possibly go wrong? 

MoJ considers digital service for probation recalls

The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) is beginning to look at setting up a digital service to manage recalls of offenders on probation. It has gone public with plans for a discovery project, with a possible escalation to beta, publishing a market notice for support from the private sector.

The ministry is apparently leaving its options open, not specifying details of the length of the work or a projected budget and reserving the right to issue a separate tender for phases after the discovery.

It says the purpose of the work is to understand the needs of probation staff in making appropriate and timely recall decisions and whether a digital service could help. Staff to be able to see relevant information about parolee and understand the procedures and guidelines for making recall decisions.

The initiative has been prompted partly by the MoJ review into the case of Joseph McCann, who was given 33 life sentences at the Central Criminal Court in 2019 for a series of violent sexual attacks committed while he was supervised on licence by the National Probation Service, having been released from prison automatically earlier that year.

--oo00oo--

It's the inevitable development of all those electronic data mining tasks you perform each day, the birth of the algorithm to replace the incompetent humans who cast doubt upon & undermined her previous successful TR1 project: TR2: Romeo's Revenge - this time it's personal.

"MoJ says the purpose of the work is to understand the needs of probation staff in making appropriate and timely recall decisions and whether a digital service could help. Staff to be able to see relevant information about parolee and understand the procedures and guidelines for making recall decisions."

62 comments:

  1. Sounds promising. Hopefully it will be a tool that pulls together information from multiple sources to automatically generate recall reports to reduce the time OMs spend in writing the Part A reports.

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  2. The failure in the McCann case was to make the right decision despite all of the information necessary being available. Not sure how this helps.

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  3. Maybe in that case it will be an 'EPF3' where you enter the key factors and it will tell you whether to recall or not. In fairness EPF1 and EPF2 were very well received in our area, they definitely assist in doing the job and making key decisions.

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  4. One of the problems with the probation service is that things aren't digitalised enough. Hell, some staff still want to use pen and paper and file everything in huge filing cabinets! Which in 2021 is just ridiculous! Hopefully this digital recall tool will help modernise things even more.

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    1. Why not just have a probation app? No need for probation offers then.

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    2. HMPPS's wet dream scenario!

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  5. This is what fucking algorithms give you:

    "Mr Johnson told Tuesday's Downing Street news conference it was "hard to compute the sorrow contained in this grim statistic" of the death toll"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55820178

    How's that for genuine compassion?

    Boris's sympathy card:

    One hundred thousand dead
    Its hard to compute the sorrow
    But I didn't mean what I said
    So you won't see your loved one tomorrow

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    1. Lardy Boy on his feet in The Commons now on the attack, miffed & explicitly blaming everyone else for his government's mistakes & the grotesque figures in respect of deaths of people & the failing economy.

      Its an echochamber of the GOP tactics being used to respond to the disaster that is Trump.

      "move along, nothing to see here, what's past is passed, stop trying to score points & look to the future..."

      What about those who were fried or given a lethal injection in the USA? Or the UK's current prison population of 74,000? Where is the forget-&-forgive policy for those?

      There's no chance of forget-&-forgive for those souls who have died as a result of Johnson's tardiness.

      Trump's incompetence in managing the US means he presided over the deaths of 400,000 US citizens.

      Johnson's incompetence has presided over the deaths of 100,000 UK citizens.

      Two over-priveleged overweight white men; half-a-million people dead.

      In both cases those figures could & should have been greatly reduced by proactive policies to manage the pandemic. In both cases there was dereliction of duty, resistance to make necessary decisions, prioritising the economy over the population, preferential treatment for a priveleged few over the vulnerable many.

      Yet they have no shame, no sense of culpability, no empathy - just contempt for others & a sense of outrage that anyone might think they were wrong.

      How did we get to this place?

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    2. Your right but larfdy boy gets away with because starmer is weak as custard. Slow to take a challenge. Lacks aggression fails to challenge the cat calling. Johnson has clear run so looks ok. I fuc*8 hate him but starmers is useless. It would testify the Tories if star was as to fight . Being in the super club class don't make him hard enough. We need a real working class leader. Labours full of Tories.

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    3. Sorry blooming type errors terrify Tories and few words missing.

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    4. The Tories are the party of the working class now.

      2019 election the Tories won 48% of the C2DE social class vote compared to Labour with 33%. In fact the Tories did better with the C2DE social groups than with the ABC1 (43%).

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    5. Sort of makes my point really infiltration of labour by so many people I would not comfortably identify with today. The Tories got the shaky weakened traditional northern votes brexit gave them a desire to become right wing . I don't know what to think these days but saddened.

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    6. It happened when Labour/the left decided to obsess about identity politics at the expense of the real issues people care about.

      In the past, Labour/the left used to want to help the poor; today, they are more interested in shaming working class voters who disagree with them. Hence why the Tories/the right were able to hoover up their votes.

      We see it here on this blog too. Contributors post about patriotism and are met with snide comments about Royston Vasey.

      Delete
    7. When you conflate political alliagence with patriotism and national identity you're talking about fascism.
      You can only be patriotic if you vote or think a particular way? If you're not one of 'us' you're 'those sort'?
      Maybe, just so everyone knows, you could define what exactly it is that you think patriotism is?

      Delete
    8. Who exactly was conflating political allegiance with patriotism?

      Patriotism means having a strong sense of attachment to one's own nation.

      When working class people express such views (including on this blog) the left respond with accusations of jingoism, little Englander, xenophobia, go back to Royston Vasey, etc etc

      The result is that working class people become alienated from Labour/the left and no longer vote for them.

      It's that simple.

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    9. I posted earlier as sadened and it goes to show you the divided politics and wider view. I don't care for the older philosophical debates but am keen to see some re established us and them rich arguments. Unite because we are poor and skint not divided by their promises of hs2 more for the rich by the way. I want a Labour party that represents the worst off and openly fights their causes. Look what the Tories are doing to us. Privatised food a packet of potatoes and loaf of bread . Hate them.

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  6. The government have been an absolute disgrace.... but THANK GOD we're not part of the EU vaccine programme. The EU have well and truly f***ed up with the vaccine and now they're desperately clutching at straws in saying that 75m vaccines for the UK need diverting to the EU instead.

    It's beyond the pale.

    Fortunately AstraZeneca appear to be holding firm. I'd suggest the UK Army are put on notice that would serve to concentrate the minds of the EU and their stupid threats I would have thought!

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    1. Probably a good job that when it comes to thought you're out there on your own.
      Put the army on notice that will show the foregin buggers?
      C'mon please...

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    2. Britain voted to leave the EU and in doing so told our europhile friends to fcuk off . All they are doing in their authority is to look after members states. I don't blame them either what can you expect to learn from this safety in numbers perhaps.

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    3. Looking after members states? Safety in numbers? You're having a laugh aren't you? The EU commission insisted on centralising it all and they cocked up agreeing deals with the vaccine providers and now they're desperately trying to blame anybody but themselves.

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    4. Anonymous 2024 - Brussels wants Britons to die so that Europeans should live. That is the implication of diverting up to 75 million doses of AstraZeneca’s vaccine to the EU market.

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    5. Rotate that 180 same point for them.

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    6. Yes but we paid for those vaccines for our population.

      The UK and the US invested seven times as much public money per capita to accelerate the vaccine breakthrough, acting with war-time energy while the European Commission remained stuck in its bureaucratic box-ticking subculture, catering to the lowest common denominator of 27 states. If ever there was an example of why Brussels should not be let anywhere near policies of real national sensitivity, this was it.

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  7. I am aware of two examples of staff not being informed by management of colleagues that have tested positive in shared spaces. This can be done without disclosing personal details. But risk information does not appear to be shared. Has anyone else experienced this?

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  8. There appears to be a theme developing in my slow-burning brain whereby, in at least three examples I can think of, right-leaning ideology has caused untold, unthinkable levels of damage to the UK - and got off scott free!

    The well-documented concerns - and in some cases those who expressed their concerns - have been consistently rubbished, ignored or dismissed. Those fears & concerns have been proven to be correct in every case but...

    ... I hear no admissions of fault, no apology nor any form of contrition from the right-leaning side of things, just abuse directed at others for not agreeing to or supporting the 'infallible' folly in question.

    The three examples I refer to are:

    1. Transforming Rehabilitation - a total disaster which has decimated a once-respected profession

    2. Handling of the Covid-19 pandemic - a national calamity of truly heartbreaking proportions

    3. Brexit - now proving itself to be the divisive, damaging act of deliberate self-harm it always was

    There are a further couple of common threads running through all three examples, namely (1) the eye-watering sums of public money 'lost' in the process and (2) the familiar pockets which have been fattened by those 'lost' public funds.

    The UK has been scammed on an unimaginable scale. It would make a great screenplay - The Eton Rifle Through

    (Definition of 'rifle through': to search through something quickly and carelessly often in order to take or steal something)

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    1. Brexit..... yawn. We're out, get over it lol!

      And because we're out, we got to negotiate our own vaccine deals which is why we're miles ahead of the EU.

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    2. We're miles ahead of the EU. Certainly are. We've got the highest death rate in the world, and suffering the largest eccentric downturn then anywhere else in Europe.
      And guess what. Its not Labour's fault. Its not the EUs fault and its happened with our right wing self serving government at the helm.

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    3. Typo, Economic not eccentric.

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    4. 20.20 you're correct about 1) and 2) but wide of the mark about 3). In your view Brexit might have been a mistake but for the millions that voted for it we're very happy thank you.

      The Brexit referendum was the first ever referendum held by a member country that was honoured. All previous referendums were ignored. The fact in the UK, we the people spoke and their wishes were (eventually) implemented is something we should all be very proud of.

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    5. Point 3 had nothing to say about Brexit.
      We have the highest death rate in the world. The worst hit economy of all European countries.
      It's happened under a tory government. Can't blame Labour and can't blame the EU. Why is that wide of the mark? It's fact. Not fake news or alternatives facts.

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    6. What do you mean point 3 had nothing to say about Brexit?

      20.20 literally said:

      3. Brexit - now proving itself to be the divisive, damaging act of deliberate self-harm it always was

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    7. Yes it is. Worse yet come too

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    8. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/27/boris-johnson-reserves-right-to-carry-on-without-learning-anything

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    9. On a theme of failure to learn lessons, arrogance & political leanings...

      "Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due to visit Scotland on Thursday despite the country's first minister questioning whether the trip is necessary. Mr Johnson is expected to emphasise the strength of the UK working together in the fight against Covid-19.

      Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has questioned whether his trip is "essential".

      Asked at her daily coronavirus briefing on Wednesday how she felt about the expected visit while strict travel restrictions were in place, Ms Sturgeon replied she was "not ecstatic" about it. She argued that leaders should abide by the same rules they impose on the general public, adding that she had herself rejected a suggested visit to a vaccine centre in Aberdeen for this reason."

      So a sizeable entourage will trawl from London to wherever in Scotland, crossing the closed border, for a politically charged PR stunt intended to diminish the Scots' growing appetite for independence from Westminster. Last weekend a very clear message was given by an anxious Scottish Tory (I forget the name) to the effect that if Johnson went ahead with his visit it would further the case FOR independence; something Gove, a Scot himself, seems to be doing quite a good job of.

      But as we all now realise, Boris Knows Best! He's NEVER wrong.

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    10. Yep, @21:45 last night, you are correct. I did write:

      3. Brexit - now proving itself to be the divisive, damaging act of deliberate self-harm it always was"

      Brexit means Brexit - yes, its happened & yes, we're out of the EU, but no fucker knows what Brexit means. Its simply another scam, another Etonian Ponzi scheme.

      Brexit is, in fact, proving itself to be the divisive, damaging act of deliberate self-harm it always was.

      In fact its proving to be a series of disasters with ad hoc 'solutions' made up on the hoof by well-heeled ideologues whose only interest was their own wealth & some romantic notion of 'sovereignty'.

      "British business leaders warn of 'substantial difficulties' at UK ports - Letter says government needs to act quickly to resolve customs issues faced by exporters following Brexit"

      In the few weeks since the whole thing went 'live', the UK has gone out of its way to alienate & disrespect the EU with the playground language of pompous idiots in government.

      Now we have pro-brexit warmongering fuckwits elsewhere on this blog (such as @19:24 below) thinking its hilarious to make jokes about WW2.

      I suspect that is what Brexit really means - an excuse to return to Britons taunting the world, sneering at everyone else. Hancock, Williamson, Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Jenrick - they've all been happy to use wartime analogies for the pandemic, dredging the sewer for Churchillian-esque quotes, claiming Britain is a world-leader (well yes, in killing its own citizens perhaps) & decrying others' efforts.

      A global pandemic should surely merit a global response.

      It is just way too sad to put into words.

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    11. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/28/eu-uk-inaugural-meeting-postponed-after-bloc-ambassadors-status-downgrade

      EU-UK inaugural meeting 'postponed' after bloc ambassador's status downgrade - Event delayed after UK refuses to grant EU ambassador same privileges as other diplomats

      Downing Street has refused to grant João Vale de Almeida, the EU’s ambassador to the UK, and his 25-strong mission the privileges and immunities afforded to diplomats under the Vienna convention.


      So there, EU. Stick it up your bum with knobs on!

      Truly pathetic.

      [Pathos - a quality that evokes pity or sadness.]

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    12. And here's the bloated ego endearing himself to the Scots:

      "I think endless talk about a referendum without any clear description of what the constitutional situation would be after that referendum is completely irrelevant now to the concerns of most people".

      To describe what many, if not 'most', are now thinking in Scotland as "irrelevant" is not going to help his unionist cause.

      I imagine that one dismissive sneering comment alone has propelled many otherwise undecided thousands to vote pro-independence.

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    13. Rees-Mogg's sneering comments today:

      ""Well, I used to think that Moanalot was a fictional character, but it turns out it's actually the First Minister of Scotland."

      Delete
  9. https://www.disabilitynewsservice.com/philippa-day-young-mother-took-her-own-life-after-being-told-to-attend-pip-assessment/

    A young disabled mother killed herself after hearing she would have to attend a face-to-face interview at a benefits assessment centre, following repeated warnings that she could not cope with such a meeting, an inquest has heard.

    Philippa Day left an apparent suicide note blaming the way the government had dealt with her benefits, and had previously told her sister that she believed the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) was trying to kill her.

    Her unconscious body was found by her sister and father on 8 August 2019, just days after she had been told she would need to attend an assessment centre for a face-to-face appointment to decide her new personal independence payment (PIP) claim.

    They found her lying on her bed at her home in Nottingham. On the pillow next to her was the letter from outsourcing giant Capita telling her that she would have to attend the appointment at the assessment centre in Nottingham.

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    1. "Hopefully this digital recall tool will modernise things" - FFS!!!

      The report from the inquest (above) is but one example of what happens when the 'computer says no'. The perfect storm of Tory policy, privatisation of public services, de-professionalisation of roles & implementation of algorithms.

      IPPs are perhaps the MoJ's existing equivalent, i.e. risk assessment algorithm says 'no'. And there's a shameful trail of suicides linked to that 'tool' as well.

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    2. The modern world has become a slave to binary discrimination. One's & Zero's determine if you can buy X or Y, if you can have a bank account, or a loan, or if you can study. Do you have a computer? Do you have internet? Do you have a smartphone? If you have wealth & resources then you can access the world. If you don't have such technology at your fingertips, you are excluded.

      As a child in 1960's Britain our household had limited wealth & resources but I still had access to sources of knowledge for free. How? I went to the Public Library most evenings & at weekends. I could read any amount of books, newspapers & journals on any subject; I could listen to any kind of music on vinyl or cassette tape.

      Friday & Saturday nights were filled with the battle cry of "No trainers, no jeans, no exceptions".

      Now there's an algorithm on the door, 24/7 - No subscription, no entry, no exceptions.

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  10. Napo and the Probation Journal offer a webinar - so far there is just one comment - mine - but others may want to hear the result of the research - Two have been broadcast - I hope a link follows to the first.

    https://www.napomagazine.org.uk/watch-resettlement-after-short-prison-sentences-what-might-work-in-england-and-wales/

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  11. Can our MPs really justify Parliamentary Recess when we're in the throes of a national emergency; over 100,000 souls lost; a global pandemic ??? At a time when the NHS has effectively cancelled all leave?

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  12. On Russell Webster's webpage today.

    To paraphrase: Computer Says Nonce

    "Actuarial risk assessment tools – which arrive at an overall risk level using empirically-supported risk factors and mathematical rules, rather than professional judgement – have been shown to be good predictors of proven reoffending."

    I really do worry about this reliance upon algorithms to make such decisions. The emphasis is being taken away from the professional's assessment & all weight given to the digital computation, in effect digitising & thus dehumanising the world, reducing human behaviours to binary choices (as referred to elsewhere above).

    Webster's article refers to OSP being better because its 'simpler' - Surely that's counterproductive? Human behaviour is complex. Offending behaviours are more complex still.

    The more we rely on & attribute behaviours using these tools, is there a danger our thinking about human behaviours is skewed to accept the digital outcomes as opposed to using our professional skills.

    "If you don't use it you lose it" - the more we rely on typing yes/no answers into boxes in search of a quick & easy answer, the less likely we are to think about the assessment we're undertaking.

    But perhaps that's exactly what HMPPS want to eradicate - thinking.

    They just want compliance across the board. From everyone.

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    1. https://www.russellwebster.com/predicting-sexual-offending/

      HMPPS published a new report in the MoJ Analytical series: Comparing two predictors of sexual recidivism: the Risk Matrix 2000 and the OASys Sexual Reoffending Predictor.

      "OSP has a number of advantages over RM2000/s: it focuses on specific types of sexual reoffending, it has a simpler scoring process, there is no age restriction on its use..."

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    2. If actuarial tools are proven to work better than professional judgement (which is what the above seems to be saying although I haven't read it all) then it would be a pretty hard sell to say there should be fewer actuarial tools and more professional judgement assessments. Especially as professional judgement assessments are more time consuming, require more training and are therefore more expensive.

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    3. It's precisely because human judgment is more time consuming and requires more training that you're not paid national minimum wage.

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    4. @11:35 - they're comparing two actuarial tools against each other. There's no reference whatsoever to professional judgement by skilled human beings.

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    5. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-england-nottinghamshire-55826082

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    6. @,12:39

      "If actuarial tools are proven to work better than professional judgement "?

      Delete
    7. Hmmm, while I completely disagree that a "recall computer tool" would be fruitless, I have more mixed feelings on resentment about actuarial tools. Just think of your own caseload or those of your colleagues...how many sexual offenders are assessed as high risk, because we say they are high risk notably due to the seriousness of the index offence, whereas statistically they are very unlikely to reoffend. How many knife carrying young people are assessed as "medium" risk, because they haven't yet used the knife (that we know of), whereas all the statistical tools are screaming at us: he is very much high risk. We know that most SFO come from the medium risk cohort...ultimately we rely too much (in my view) on what the person tells us to inform our often inaccurate assessments.

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    8. Sorry...that meant to say "i completely AGREE that a computer recall tool would be fruitless!

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    9. Annon @10:57
      I completely agree. Not to say an algorithm can't be useful, but they are by themselves becoming the primary decision maker and not the assistant or aid.
      The following may be of interest to you.

      https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2017/02/08/theme-3-humanity-and-human-judgment-are-lost-when-data-and-predictive-modeling-become-paramount/

      'Getafix

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    10. Thanks getafix

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    11. Many respondents said that as people put too much faith in data, humanity can be lost. Some argued that because technology corporations and, sometimes, governments are most often the agencies behind the code, algorithms are written to optimize efficiency and profitability without much thought about the possible societal impacts of the data modeling and analysis. These respondents said people are considered to be an “input” to the process and they are not seen as real, thinking, feeling, changing beings. Some said that as the process evolves – that is, as algorithms begin to write the algorithms – humans may get left completely out of the loop, letting “the robots decide.”

      An anonymous respondent wrote, “We simply can’t capture every data element that represents the vastness of a person and that person’s needs, wants, hopes, desires. Who is collecting what data points? Do the human beings the data points reflect even know, or did they just agree to the terms of service because they had no real choice? Who is making money from the data? How is anyone to know how his/her data is being massaged and for what purposes to justify what ends? There is no transparency, and oversight is a farce. It’s all hidden from view. I will always remain convinced the data will be used to enrich and/or protect others and not the individual. It’s the basic nature of the economic system in which we live.”

      Peter Eckart’s comment reflects the attitude of many in this canvassing: “We can create algorithms faster than we can understand or evaluate their impact. The expansion of computer-mediated relationships means that we have less interest in the individual impact of these innovations, and more on the aggregate outcomes. So we will interpret the negative individual impact as the necessary collateral damage of ‘progress.’”

      Rebecca MacKinnon, director of the Ranking Digital Rights project at New America, commented, “Algorithms driven by machine learning quickly become opaque even to their creators who no longer understand the logic being followed to make certain decisions or produce certain results. The lack of accountability and complete opacity is frightening. On the other hand, algorithms have revolutionized humans’ relationship with information in ways that have been life-saving and empowering and will continue to do so.”

      Delete
  13. Starmer: "Obviously, I’m his opposite number, but I’m going to defend him on this. He is the prime minister of the United Kingdom. He needs to know what’s going on, on the ground."

    F.F.S!!!

    Has Boris got compromising pictures of Barbie & Ken?

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  14. Who needs algorithms or rules of any kind when you've got cash to splash?

    More has emerged of the Rita Ora Nov 28 party last year:

    "representatives of Ora called him [staff member at Casa cruz] on his personal mobile phone at about 5.30pm on the day of the party and told him they wanted to use the venue for "drinks and nibbles". Bhattarai said the representatives offered £5,000... & told police "security for the entourage" wanted no footage of them arriving so he turned the CCTV off between 6pm-6.30pm... The CCTV hard drives were reformatted on November 30, police said, and no footage was available for the previous month... The windows of the venue were blacked out preventing the officers from seeing in... Bhattarai did not disclose details of the party organiser to police"

    101,887 souils have been lost to the virus.

    50,000 have been lost since Nov 2020.

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    1. I know of 9 teenagers on a covid a ward after parties at Christmas it is not an old illness at all be warned .

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  15. Comments made by Peter Liese, German MEP about the EU's cock up to secure enough vaccines from AZ for their citizens:

    "So the company and the UK better think twice. When we see Europe is not treated well, not by the United States and not by the UK, then we have to show our weapons.

    We need to tell the other companies in the world if we treat the Europeans as second class, you will suffer for this."

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    1. As we speak, the home guard of Royston Vasey are being mobilised. No worries!

      Delete
  16. Here is the Xmas Consequence in one devastating tale:

    "The family, who had been shielding since March, met up on Christmas Day after the government relaxed COVID rules and allowed households to meet for one day.

    Ms Latham, 50, claims her partner caught Covid when he went to his parents' house in Allenton for just two hours.

    Over the course of the following week, Mr Fisher, his parents Pat and David Fisher, aged 79 and 82, all tested positive for the disease.

    All of them have now passed away..."

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  17. priti aunty goes wlakabout...

    "The Home Secretary has defended the decision to leave London for a meet and greet with police officers, saying it was part of her "statutory duties".

    Priti Patel said it was wrong to compare her journey to Hertfordshire and the Prime Minister's trip to Scotland during the pandemic with foreign travel made by so-called influencers.

    The Home Secretary has repeatedly criticised those who appeared to be using their fame for creating content on social media as an excuse simply to go on holiday.

    She spent just over an hour in Bishop's Stortford on Thursday afternoon, where she met six new recruits, a chief constable, neighbourhood beat officers and local Tory MP Julie Marson.

    Ms Patel even remarked, during a brief walk through the town centre with more than two dozen police, aides, close protection officers and media: "It's quite busy round here, or is it just us?"

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