London's Burning

Like many, I've been listening and watching the news and trying to make sense of what is happening and why? Does a probation officer have anything useful to say I wonder?

It's certainly true that colleagues will be writing many reports for court in the coming weeks and despite disparaging comments in some quarters, a lot of people are going to end up doing lengthy prison terms. As with the public disorder earlier this year in London, I suspect the repercussions of some 'moments of madness' will be devastating for some people previously of good character. Very strange things seem to happen when the normal balance of civil society breaks down. Remember those scenes a few years ago of ordinary-looking people plundering washed-up shipping containers on a normally deserted Devon coastline? 

I know it's not the same, but when the story comes to be told I think it will turn out that people from a variety of walks of life have been involved in wholesale looting. The people who started the disorder are a different matter. Almost certainly they will turn out to be the disaffected youth who have little invested in their neighbourhood, are the products of a failed education system and have scant hope or aspiration. If they haven't been arrested already, in the coming weeks their identity will be revealed either through cctv, forensic evidence or Blackberry message trail. What might be appropriate punishment for the younger-end participants will no doubt prove a moot point in the weeks to come. In a sense it's too late for them though. We really must try and ensure there isn't another similar generation coming up behind them.

The whole business has come as a nasty shock and a brutal reminder that basically our policing model in mainland UK is based on mutual consent. For most of the time it works reasonably well and as a society we're not really used to regular mass civil unrest. As a consequence we're probably not adequately geared up for it. By that I don't mean water cannon in strategic store and fleets of armoured vehicles. I suspect it's much more prosaic like an experienced police command structure not on leave (it is August after all) and a certain amount of disbelief that things would 'kick-off' so spectacularly, and all over the place.

Somewhat unfashionably I suspect for a probation officer, I do think there is something in the observation that we now have a police service rather than a police force and possibly current command is simply not confident or experienced enough in dealing with this situation assertively. I suspect the police are collectively suffering from a degree of loss of self-esteem. They are certainly mightily pissed off with government over attacks on their terms and conditions, but the rub as always is that in times of crisis or trouble, we really need them. It would not be that surprising if there might be just a tad of bad feeling in the ranks and a less than gungho attitude in dealing with the present troubles. Having said that, I'm sure that when the chips are down and the Queens Peace is threatened, the significance of having sworn an oath will not be lost on the rank and file.

Society has a funny habit of throwing up new challenges unforeseen by the forces of law and order, and government for that matter. Remember the amazing organisational aspects of the fuel blockade in 2000 when an astonished prime minister visiting Hull had to be told to 'leave for London immediately as fuel supplies could not be guaranteed anywhere.' I seem to recall it was as a result of this whole debacle that the Civil Contingencies Act amongst other things provided for the temporary suspension of mobile phone networks on police or government instruction. I wonder if Blackberries will work tonight with a reported 16,000 police officers on London's streets, many having been drafted in from surrounding counties? 

One thing I'm pretty clear about. The case for the routine arming of the police will recede further into the distance. Can you imagine how bad things could get with police officers in riot situations and with adrenaline pumping, being able to resist the urge to draw and use their weapons. It simply doesn't bear thinking about. However, a chastened government might now begin to review just how appropriate it really is to be reducing front-line police numbers with the London Olympics just around the corner. It's been plain sailing up till now for next summer, but I bet there will be some urgent phone calls from the International Organising Committee over the next week or so.