****
"Actually, "The Irony Of It" is that the £700m that is being banded about in every other sentence from the Government, is roughly only about the amount that was stripped out of the service through austerity and TR. £700m could really be seen only as a refund?
******
£700 million. 1,400 recruits. More tagging.
We know. We’ve heard it. Repeatedly. What we are telling you is that IT ISN’T FIXING THE PROBLEM.
I don’t manage £700 million. I manage people. Real people, with complicated lives, changing circumstances and risks that don’t conveniently fit into a tier, an actuarial score or a bloody dashboard.
A trainee isn’t an experienced PO because you’ve counted them in a recruitment figure. A GPS tag isn’t supervision. AI isn’t professional judgement. An exclusion-zone alert isn’t risk management. And reducing contact with people doesn’t magically create a safer probation service simply because somebody in HMPPS has labelled the missing hours “released capacity”.
Meanwhile those of us actually carrying the cases are expected to absorb OFPS, new tiering, sentencing reform, early releases, more electronic monitoring, more information, more potential breaches and recalls, and whatever else arrives next — while being told the answer is to spend less professional time with some of the people we’re responsible for. And:
When we tell you we’re worried? Thank you for your resilience.
When we tell you we’re exhausted? Here’s a wellbeing webinar.
When we tell you workloads are unsafe? We’re taking away your ability to see the WMT.
When we tell you we’re frightened something will be missed? £700 million.
And now practitioners apparently have to speak anonymously to Channel 4 because shouting inside the organisation isn’t working. That should shame HMPPS.
These aren’t disgruntled staff moaning because they’re busy. These are professionals warning before the event that they do not believe they have sufficient capacity to safely deliver what Government is promising the public. So record it. Date it. Remember it. We told you.
If this goes wrong and somebody is seriously harmed, don’t you dare come back afterwards with an SFO review, work backwards through an individual practitioner’s records and ask what they should have done differently. Ask what you did when the workforce warned you. Ask why you kept piling work into probation while reducing meaningful supervision. Ask why recruitment headlines mattered more than retaining experience. Ask why you removed workload visibility.
Ask why every warning was answered with investment figures and corporate platitudes rather than evidence that the service could safely cope. And please, spare us the inevitable “lessons will be learned.” The lesson is being handed to you right now.
You’re just not bloody listening.
*****
And there, buried underneath all the recruitment headlines, are the figures that actually matter.Qualified Band 4 POs: DOWN 2%.
Band 3 PSOs: UP 13.6%.
Yet apparently we’re supposed to hear “1,400 new probation officers recruited” and conclude that the staffing crisis is being fixed. It isn’t.
You can recruit thousands of trainees, increase PSO numbers and issue endless press releases about recruitment targets, but none of that changes the number of qualified, experienced practitioners actually available today to carry the work and the risk.
And this little gem deserves translating:
“The shortfall in probation officers has increased relative to the March release mainly due to an increase in probation officer target staffing.”In plain English: we’ve finally admitted we need more POs than we previously said we did, so the hole is even bigger than we were admitting. Meanwhile the Government is shifting thousands more people into community supervision, massively expanding electronic monitoring and telling probation to absorb the consequences of sentencing reform. And their answer?
“We’ve recruited 1,400.”
No. You’ve recruited people towards becoming probation officers while the number of actual Band 4 POs has fallen. There is a difference. Stop pretending there isn’t.
Getafix is also absolutely right about the £700m. Investment isn’t just money. What probation has lost over successive “reforms” is experience, professional identity, autonomy, confidence, continuity and institutional knowledge. You cannot buy 25 years of practitioner experience with a recruitment campaign. You certainly can’t replace it with a tag, an algorithm or AI.
Perhaps instead of endlessly telling us how much money you’re putting into probation, somebody could finally explain what sort of Probation Service we’re actually getting for it.
Because from where I’m sitting, we’re getting fewer qualified POs just as Government expects probation to do more. That’s not investment. That’s deprofessionalisation with a press release attached.
*****
Then factor in the leaving rates:Band 4 @ 5% That's 275 POs gone.
Band 3 @ 10% So, recruit 1,400 at band 3 (which is where trainees start), but lose 592.
Staff loss: (592+275) = 867
Claims about recruitment:
1. "In the past year, 1,622 probation services officers were appointed, some of whom will be training to become qualified probation officers."
2. "The Probation Service onboarded 1,389 new Trainee Probation Officers (PQiP) across the 2025/26 financial year"
Yeah, but more than half that number have left..
net staffing (depending on which figure is used):
= (1622 - 867) = +755... or...
= (1389-867) = +522
Neither of those figures gives 1,300 net increase. Whilst the lies fall from their mouths, it would be preferable that the scales fell from their eyes.
What a brilliant and succinct summation on what's wrong and needs to put right and the dire obfuscation of those in power to try to pull the wool over all our eyes. I'd include the exploitation of Probation Officer's who joined because of its supposed vocational aspect; being registered as a PO but having far less autonomy; a strangle hold by prisons so that community probation is little more than a dumping ground for warehoused Argos levels of offenders in custody; PPCS not compelling prisons to prioritise videoinks for PAROMs- it's the COMs fault for not chasing it; the lack of consequential thinking from the organisation as whole when we try endlessly to improve that kind of thinking for our POPS; we know POs are busy, but so what, the Early Sentencing train keeps on coming down the track and Community Probation's voice of concern is a collective tongue without a larynx; EMS have scores of emails to email to and come back with different ones and are bound up with SERCO making tagging tiresome and protracted- why isn't this more streamlined? It makes for a chaotic and not a reassured monitoring system- it's in disarray; a lack of equitable allocations in PDUs, so everyone has their side hustles and exemptions so some are never overworked whilst others are cream-crackered; a commitment to status quo and favouritism rather than a commitment to to drive-up standards. So pee taking is equal to working smart and protecting your health. But the work has to go somewhere- so the most able if not the most tired remain exploited, but we don't allow exploitation with POPs- it's a call to arms to reduce vulnerability and possible modern slavery. That which we condemn societally is happening microcosmically in our probation PDUs all the time. Consequential thinking and accountability when dealing with senior managers. It's the old adage of do as I say not as I do. Until this is rectified, real, meaningful change is just an illusion. It's a fact in all this confusion.
ReplyDelete100% accurate…..
DeleteAnd so the madness of this deaf & utterly dumbass govt continues regardless, despite their claims to be 'listening'.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy8e8jx0x5wo
"A scheme that could see serious sexual and violent offenders confined to areas just a few miles wide after leaving prison will be launched in October, Justice Secretary Alex Norris has announced.
Government ministers say this is designed to give victims greater freedom and further reduce the possibility of unwanted contact
The intention to introduce "restriction zones" for violent offenders who leave prison and who are on probation was first announced by the government last year.
Probation officers will be able to limit where serious offenders can go for as long as it is deemed necessary. Those who breach their new boundaries could be recalled to prison.
This would go beyond the current practice of imposing "exclusion zones" which ban offenders from specific locations such as a victim's home or place of work.
Norris is expected to come up with proposals to further restrict the early release of some prisoners when Parliament resumes next month.
But the Conservatives say that the best thing Labour could do to protect victims is to bring forward emergency legislation which would stop the early release of thousands of criminals.
There is a risk that serious sexual and violent offenders and victims could encounter one another outside exclusion zones.
The new scheme will specify confined areas for offenders in plans tailored to them and developed in consultation with victims.
Norris said the scheme would use GPS technology monitored by probation officers so that "those who step outside the boundaries can be quickly identified and face being sent back to prison".
"Offenders should carry the consequences of their crimes, not their victims," he added.
Amy Glover, director of domestic abuse services at Advance, a charity supporting women and girls who have experienced domestic abuse, praised the "change in focus".
However, she also called for reform to the criminal justice system saying many survivors of abuse chose "not to pursue a criminal conviction, and for those that do only 5% reach conviction."
A domestic abuse survivor named only as Kristina called the restriction zones a "fantastic concept" but noted that a perpetrator had continuously breached her indefinite restraining order "without consequence".
"The biggest challenge would be to gain victims' confidence in authorities to follow through their promises of protection," she added.
The announcement of the restriction zone scheme's start date comes after a change to the government's early release scheme following a backlash.
Introduced to ease prison overcrowding, on 4 August the policy was updated so people sentenced for rape, serious child sex offences and grooming would not be eligible for early release.
The Prison Governors' association warned this change to plans at a "very late stage" put further pressure on prison staff.
The restriction zone scheme was criticised when it was announced last year for potentially putting pressure on probation staff, something the government says it hopes to alleviate with more staff and a greater use of technology."
Presumably, if people are unable to leave a restriction zone, there will have to be a probation facility within that zone?
DeleteMaybe the restriction zones will be created around existing probation facilities?
Maybe just a lot more home visits?
Wherever these restriction zones are located they will come with serious problems, not least from the communities that already reside there. They seriously limit employment and accommodation opportunities, and seriously, what sort of thinking believes that grouping the people that have committed the most serious offences, all together in a tiny zone all of their own is a good idea? What could go wrong eh?
There's a big elephant in the room here that need some serious consideration and discussion, and that is the conflicts of interest being foisted on probation between meeting the needs of the people they receive from the courts or leaving custody, and satisfying the needs and wants of victims.
I feel a bit uncomfortable writing that, but for me ,its an issue that is becoming more apparent with every decision the government take.
Does it really matter how many exclusion zones are created to keep victims and perpetrators apart if they will always be linked together by the common factor of the same agency charged with meeting their respective needs?
Is that another identity problem for the service?
'Getafix
Twitter comment from former Governor John Podmore:-
Delete" They have now added exclusion zones and castration."
Reference to yesterday's Guardian article:-
Thousands of sex offenders in England and Wales could get libido-suppressing drugs
Exclusive: Voluntary use of sex drive-suppressing medication to expand to 20 prisons and expert says it could be rolled out widely by late 2028
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/aug/22/sex-offenders-libido-control-drugs-prisons-england-wales
Exactly so: "A serious point can be made here whereby prioritising & elevating the victim's status whilst *conflating* it with the means or severity of the punishment is not healthy. It runs the risk of making the victim a 'legitimate' target (in the eyes of the perpetrator) & potentially places the victim in greater peril, e.g. if the victim can be silenced then the punishment might be less harsh. The victim's voice is undoubtedly important, but the justice system should be the arbiter of punishment, not the volume, articulation or skill of the victim's opinion. Similarly I would argue that the imposition of victim work upon the probation service was, again, a big mistake. It has led to some terrible conflicts of interest."
DeleteWith regard to libido suppressing drugs there are two questions that immediately jump to mind.
Delete1. If taking them are voluntary, then there must be some incentive on offer to those that volunteer, which suggests that failure to volunteer will attract some form of negitave consequence. That muddies the waters between voluntary and compulsory.
2. With such a large initial roll out, (are the prisons being targeted those that specifically house the most sex offenders?), how long will it remain a voluntary option?
'Getafix
Such drugs were proved to fail and cause more problems than they resolve long ago.
DeleteThis will please some:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce97k1y19k9o
Police say a ban on balaclavas is likely to be introduced across Nottingham city centre by the end of the year.
Under the proposals, police and community protection officers will be able to ask people to remove face coverings if they "reasonably believe" they are being used to conceal their identity to commit crime or anti-social behaviour.
Nottingham City Council is yet to decide on the matter, but Nottinghamshire Police Supt Chris Pearson said the force was working hard to ensure it had those extra powers.
Colin Parr, the council's director for communities, environment and resident services, said recommendations would be drafted for the city's political leaders "in the coming weeks".
Nottinghamshire Police launched a survey in May asking residents, businesses, students and visitors to the city about where they felt most unsafe in the city centre and what could be done to improve their experience.
Respondents to the survey raised concerns such as lighting, graffiti and face coverings.
Pearson said: "Interestingly in the feedback that we got from the community, it is that [balaclavas] made them feel inherently unsafe.
"It was intimidating. I've experienced it myself in the city centre so we've been working incredibly hard to make sure we will get an extra tool to remove those face coverings."
Snake Plisskin? Escape from New York?
ReplyDeleteS. D. Bob "Snake" Plissken is a fictional character who served as the protagonist of the films Escape from New York (1981) and Escape from L.A. (1996). Portrayed by Kurt Russell, the character was created by John Carpenter and Nick Castle. An antihero, Plissken is a former U.S. Green Berets lieutenant who served in the Soviet Union during World War III, for which he was awarded two Purple Hearts, before turning to a life of crime. In both movies, Plissken is approached by U.S. federal officials, who offers to pardon him if he agrees to perform dangerous missions in New York City and Los Angeles, both of which have been transformed into maximum security penal colonies to contain the criminals that have arisen from the massive increase in crime. The character went on to appear in John Carpenter's Snake Plissken Chronicles, a four-part comic book miniseries released in 2003, and has frequently been referenced in popular culture.
Deletehttps://www.scottishlegal.com/articles/ps700m-plan-to-tag-40000-offenders-under-labour-reforms
ReplyDelete20 May 2025 - "Shabana Mahmood, the justice secretary, is reported to have secured £700 million in funding from the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, to buy nearly 30,000 additional electronic tags... Ms Mahmood has characterised drug-monitoring tags as the “holy grail” of tagging technology, citing the high proportion of crime linked to substance misuse... The government has commissioned Google and Palantir Technologies to develop AI software to assess an offender’s risk level. This system would integrate GPS tracking data with other information to detect changes in an individual’s risk profile... The Probation Service currently has capacity to tag about 9,000 individuals at any one time. Under the plans, this figure is set to rise to nearly 40,000."
https://cdn.websitebuilder.service.justice.gov.uk/uploads/sites/13/2025/06/Repsonse-to-2024-IMB-national-annual-report.pdf
June 2025, cobbler's letter to IMB:
* Introducing a new three-part model for standard sentences – prison, intensive supervision then a final stage where offenders can still be recalled to prison if a new offence is committed. Offenders will be on a combination of custody and post-custody supervision. 33% is the earliest any prisoner can be released, with those serving sentences for more serious sexual and violent offences spending at least 50% in custody.
* the expansion of tagging, curfews and exclusion zones, alongside new unpaid work orders. To support this, the Probation Service will receive up to £700 million by the final year of this spending review.
* Introducing a presumption in favour of courts suspending custodial sentences of one year or less for adult offenders unless there are exceptional circumstances
https://www.justice.org.uk/blogs/the-sentencing-bill-reform-must-be-matched-by-long-term-investment#management-of-offenders
"On 2 September, the government revealed its Sentencing Bill, building on some of the recommendations of the Independent Sentencing Review led by former Lord Chancellor David Gauke.
The government considers the Bill an important step towards placing our prison system on a more sustainable footing, alongside commitments to allocate an additional £700 million into the Probation service by 2028 and to recruit 1,300 trainee probation officers by 2026."
* Shabana Mahmood, the justice secretary, is reported to have secured £700 million in funding from the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, to buy nearly 30,000 additional electronic tags
Delete* the expansion of tagging, curfews and exclusion zones, alongside new unpaid work orders.
* The Probation Service currently has capacity to tag about 9,000 individuals at any one time. Under the plans, this figure is set to rise to nearly 40,000."
And there it is.
https://www.nao.org.uk/reports/electronic-monitoring-improving-resilience-to-meet-increasing-demand/
DeleteThey have been warned & warned & warned...
"In September 2025, MoJ announced plans to significantly expand electronic monitoring. This expansion would be part of the Sentencing Act 2026, which aims to ease prison pressures by managing more offenders in the community. It estimated that up to 22,000 additional individuals would be tagged each year from 2027, placing further strain on a system that had already been performing poorly. To boost the system’s ability to cope with increased demand, HMPPS has set out plans to ‘Stabilise, Scale and Transform EM’ (STEM).
Of particular concern is the likely significant number of unmonitored individuals. Additionally, police and probation officers often lack relevant information or capacity to respond to breaches quickly, and governance is fragmented.
Expanding a system that is not yet working as intended heightens risks to future performance and, ultimately, to public protection."
_________________________________________________
Bizarrely there is an existing definition of the STEM acronym:
"the MOJ has set up a central Science Office function and capability, with a focus on science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) research areas."
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ministry-of-justice-areas-of-research-interest-2025/ministry-of-justice-areas-of-research-interest-2025
__________________________________________________
.gov.uk
"By combining new technology with a stronger probation workforce, we’re making sure those who pose the biggest risk are under constant scrutiny..."
"The Government is also introducing, for the first time, a presumption that all prison leavers will be tagged on release as part of intensive supervision with the Probation Service keeping a closer eye on offenders’ behaviour... A report found overwhelming support for the scheme from probation staff, with 83% stating it gave victims peace of mind and more than three-quarters saying it would better protect them... A further £8 million is also being invested in new technology to reduce time-consuming admin tasks and save up to 250,000 days of valuable time every year"
83% of staff? Which staff, was this a sample survey of 10 SPO's, or does Probation staff include admin, reception, those who work in prisons and have no actual dealings with EMS??
Delete"Prison Capacity: Discussions—which initially began under the prior Conservative administration—also covered proposals for Palantir software to assist in analyzing broader prison capacity issues.
ReplyDeleteLobbying Concerns: Reports and Freedom of Information data showed Palantir directly lobbied government figures, sparking strong warnings from groups like Amnesty International over potential privacy breaches, human rights violations, and algorithmic bias.
Current StatusNo Formal Deals: Parliamentary answers confirm that the Ministry of Justice currently maintains no commercial contracts or formal service agreements with Palantir.... "
"While the MoJ has no active partnership, Palantir maintains major public sector deals elsewhere in the UK, including substantial contracts with the Ministry of Defence and NHS" - which, if y'all remember, was courtesy of the glad-handing & networking by alpha romeo.
"HMRC has been accused of a "grotesque waste of taxpayer money" after it emerged that more than £600,000 has been paid to civil servants to cover their heating costs while "working" from home.
ReplyDeleteUtility bill subsidies for home-working HMRC staff have more than doubled since 2022, rising from £95,000 to £211,000 in 2026."
Utility bill subsidies for home-working - can we claim this?
Deleteand speaking of civil servants: "All contracts are awarded in line with relevant guidance."
Deletehttps://www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/article/cabinet-office-signs-up-ailed-professional-services-firm-to-help-with-future-civil-service-programme
"Guidehouse Europe wins £1.7m contract to help with cabinet secretary Antonia Romeo's civil service transformation agenda
Guidehouse, which describes itself as "a global AI-led professional services firm delivering advisory, technology, and managed services to the commercial and government sectors", has won a £1.7m contract which lasts from 3 July to 26 October." (but was only announced mid-August... it works out at roughly £106,000 a week for 16weeks' work).
note: "Prior to Guidehouse, McIntyre led PwC’s Public Sector practice, fostering significant growth and solidifying that group’s reputation for delivering transformative projects to government agencies.
Originally formed from the acquisition of PricewaterhouseCoopers’ (PwC) U.S. Public Sector business by private equity firm Veritas Capital in 2018, Guidehouse has rapidly expanded its scope and scale."
And in other cosy contracts:
"The Cabinet Office also recently signed a £70,000 contract with JH Coaching and Advisory, the coaching firm of former Defence Equipment and Support director general Jill Hatcher for a "review of the current civil service approach to talent identification and development"... Hatcher left her role as DG for strategy and organisational effectiveness in May 2025 after 23 years in the civil service to set up her own coaching firm."
If we can’t it’s another example of two tier civil servants…..we are when it suits them for us to be….
ReplyDeleteJust thinking about "the irony of it".
ReplyDeleteOMIC, Offender Management In Custody was introduced in 2018 bringing probation INTO prisons to assist with the transition of those in custody back into the community.
It looks now that the opposite is happening and prisons are being extended INTO the community.
Probation will now not just be supervising those released from custody, but supervising people that will be 'confined' within electronically managed perimeters.
Its HMP outdoors, and probation are managing the nations largest open prison and returning 50,000 a year to closed conditions..
'Screws' in the community or probation officers?
Prison and probation, just like politics and religion need a clear and defined separation, otherwise the mess just gets worse and worse.
The boundaries have become far too blurred.
'Getafix
Comment moderation back on - stop bloody naming people and making libellous statements. Morons.
ReplyDelete