It will be recalled that it was a report from the National Audit Office that finally sealed the fate of 'Transforming Rehabilitation', Chris Grayling's disastrous part-privatisation of the Probation Service, and a report greatly assisted by testimony provided by readers of this blog. Well, here the NAO does not mince its words again in utterly condemning the last government's failed attempt to do the basics in providing enough prison places required as a result of their deeply flawed Criminal Justice policies. It's to be earnestly hoped that the new government will grasp the nettle following the on-going Sentencing Review, together with commissioning the election promise of a fundamental review of the Probation Service. NAO press release:-
- Government’s 2021 commitment to deliver 20,000 new prison places is not expected to be achieved until 2031 – around five years later than planned
- Current expansion plans are insufficient to meet estimated future demand, with a projected shortage of 12,400 places by end of 20271
- Expansion costs are expected to be at least £4.2bn (80%) above original estimates in 2021
The independent public spending watchdog has found, as of September 2024, HM Prison & Probation Service (HMPPS) has so far created a third (6,518) of the 20,000 additional places it committed to deliver by mid-2020s.2
The new date for completing the remaining places is 2031 – five years later than expected – increasing pressure on capacity and costing more. Prison capacity is projected to increase more slowly than demand and MoJ currently projects a shortage of 12,400 places by 2027, if demand increases according to its central forecast. It is relying on the current Sentencing Review to reduce demand for prison places and close the gap.
There are several reasons for delays to the Ministry of Justice’s and HMPPS’s prison expansion plans, including overestimating its ability to gain planning permission for three out of the six new prisons it had planned to build; unrealistic timelines; insufficient understanding of programme requirements and government bodies not working together to prioritise delivery.
The MoJ and HMPPS now expect the prison expansion plans to cost between £9.4 billion and £10.1 billion, which will be at least £4.2 billion over previous estimates stated in 2021. Contributing to the overspend are several significant cost increases. These include the cost of Rapid Deployment Cells (RDC), units with a lifespan of 15 years, that will deliver one thousand places at least three years later than planned; as well as inflation in the construction sector, where prices have risen by 40%.
Over 2020 and 2021, the MoJ increased the scale of its prison expansion plans from 13,400 to 20,000 additional places by the mid-2020s. Despite plans to build six new prisons, refurbish existing prisons and install temporary accommodation, HMPPS has been unable to increase prison places in line with demand. This has resulted in the prison estate operating at close to or at full capacity for over two years.
In October 2024 there were 85,900 people in prison across England and Wales, a 3% reduction since 6 September 2024, following the early release of at least 3,100 prisoners to manage severe capacity issues.
Government has had to move quickly to respond to the emerging capacity crisis. HMPPS has set out operational red lines it would not cross in managing pressures to ensure the safety of staff and prisoners, this includes restricting crowding to limits it has assessed as safe.
Government has largely prioritised short-term ways to increase capacity, such as moving prisoners to open prisons before turning to releasing prisoners early when it had exhausted other options.
However, the MoJ and HMPPS recognise that these actions in response to the capacity issues could impact the effective rehabilitation of prisoners, which in turn may lead to higher reoffending rates and expose the public to a greater safety risk. They are also expensive: HMPPS’s contingency measure to rent police cells overnight (Operation Safeguard) costs nearly five times the average daily cost for a prison place.
Over the next few years there will be continued risk to the capacity in prisons, because of the poor condition of parts of the estate. A quarter (23,000) of prison places do not meet fire safety standards and HMPPS’s backlog of maintenance works has doubled to £1.8 billion from £0.9 billion in the last four years. HMPPS estimates it would cost £2.8 billon over the next five years to bring the whole estate into a ‘fair’ condition, more than double its current maintenance expenditure.
The NAO recommends that the MoJ, the Cabinet Office, HM Treasury, the Home Office and other government bodies should work together to:
- Achieve alignment between government objectives which impact the prison population and the capacity to support these aims
- Learn lessons from the current crisis, including the additional costs involved and impact on prisoner outcomes
- Provide greater transparency to the public and Parliament, including publishing capacity projections alongside its population projections
“The Government must learn lessons from the current prison capacity crisis to ensure the long-term resilience and cost effectiveness of the prison estate.”
Gareth Davies, head of the NAO
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Increasing the capacity of the prison estate to meet demandBackground
HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) is the executive agency of the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) responsible for managing the prison service in England and Wales. We last reported on the prison estate in 2020. We concluded that HMPPS was failing to meet its aims of providing a safe, secure and decent prison estate.
HMPPS was also facing a significant challenge to meet its commitment to deliver 13,400 additional prison places. We highlighted that MoJ and HMPPS needed to resist taking a reactive approach to capacity pressures and to instead work with HM Treasury produce a long-term strategy to deliver a prison estate fit for purpose.
Since then, MoJ has increased the scale of its prison expansion plans from 13,400 to 20,000 additional places by the mid-2020s in response to projected increases in demand. HMPPS is delivering the additional places through a portfolio of prison capacity programmes (prison expansion portfolio), which includes a mix of building new prisons, expanding and refurbishing existing prisons, and installing temporary accommodation.
HMPPS has delivered 6,518 additional places between 2020 and September 2024, 278 of which are from additional crowding at four private prisons. Despite this, the prison estate has been operating at close to full capacity since autumn 2022, with many prisons severely crowded.
If prisons reach full capacity, there would be significant impacts on the wider criminal justice system. For example, courts would not be able to try cases where suspects may be given prison sentences. MoJ and HMPPS have had to implement various emergency measures, such as releasing prisoners early, to ensure that the criminal justice system continues to function.
Scope of the report
This report examines:
The current crisis in the prison estate is a consequence of previous governments’ failure to align criminal justice policies with funding for the prison estate, leading to reactive solutions which represent poor value for money. Policies such as introducing tougher sentences and increasing the number of police officers led to steep increases in expected demand for prison places. However, years of under-investment in maintaining the prison estate put MoJ and HMPPS in a weak position to respond to these increases.
HMPPS has therefore taken a reactive and expensive approach focused on building new places urgently at increased cost. Until there is greater coherence between the government’s wider policy agenda and funding for its prison estate, the current crisis position will not represent value for money.
HMPPS’s expansion plan was unrealistic and was not prioritised by the government, with resulting delays that have exacerbated the current crisis. MoJ’s central projection scenario shows demand for spaces exceeding capacity by 12,400 places by the end of 2027, even if current expansion projects are delivered to revised timelines.
We welcome MoJ’s commitment to a more sustainable approach to ensuring a resilient prison estate, although MoJ and HMPPS have yet to set out plans for closing the gap and considering the cost trade-offs involved. Emergency measures such as Operation Safeguard are expensive, while other measures may worsen prisoner rehabilitation or resettlement, which may lead to higher reoffending rates.
MoJ, HMPPS and wider government must ensure they learn lessons from the current capacity crisis and improve their handling of key risks and their focus on long-term resilience.
HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) is the executive agency of the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) responsible for managing the prison service in England and Wales. We last reported on the prison estate in 2020. We concluded that HMPPS was failing to meet its aims of providing a safe, secure and decent prison estate.
HMPPS was also facing a significant challenge to meet its commitment to deliver 13,400 additional prison places. We highlighted that MoJ and HMPPS needed to resist taking a reactive approach to capacity pressures and to instead work with HM Treasury produce a long-term strategy to deliver a prison estate fit for purpose.
Since then, MoJ has increased the scale of its prison expansion plans from 13,400 to 20,000 additional places by the mid-2020s in response to projected increases in demand. HMPPS is delivering the additional places through a portfolio of prison capacity programmes (prison expansion portfolio), which includes a mix of building new prisons, expanding and refurbishing existing prisons, and installing temporary accommodation.
HMPPS has delivered 6,518 additional places between 2020 and September 2024, 278 of which are from additional crowding at four private prisons. Despite this, the prison estate has been operating at close to full capacity since autumn 2022, with many prisons severely crowded.
If prisons reach full capacity, there would be significant impacts on the wider criminal justice system. For example, courts would not be able to try cases where suspects may be given prison sentences. MoJ and HMPPS have had to implement various emergency measures, such as releasing prisoners early, to ensure that the criminal justice system continues to function.
Scope of the report
This report examines:
- MoJ’s and HMPPS’s progress in expanding and maintaining the prison estate
- MoJ’s and HMPPS’s oversight and management of recent capacity pressures and the impact of measures it has used to alleviate pressures
- future risks to the resilience of the prison estate
The current crisis in the prison estate is a consequence of previous governments’ failure to align criminal justice policies with funding for the prison estate, leading to reactive solutions which represent poor value for money. Policies such as introducing tougher sentences and increasing the number of police officers led to steep increases in expected demand for prison places. However, years of under-investment in maintaining the prison estate put MoJ and HMPPS in a weak position to respond to these increases.
HMPPS has therefore taken a reactive and expensive approach focused on building new places urgently at increased cost. Until there is greater coherence between the government’s wider policy agenda and funding for its prison estate, the current crisis position will not represent value for money.
HMPPS’s expansion plan was unrealistic and was not prioritised by the government, with resulting delays that have exacerbated the current crisis. MoJ’s central projection scenario shows demand for spaces exceeding capacity by 12,400 places by the end of 2027, even if current expansion projects are delivered to revised timelines.
We welcome MoJ’s commitment to a more sustainable approach to ensuring a resilient prison estate, although MoJ and HMPPS have yet to set out plans for closing the gap and considering the cost trade-offs involved. Emergency measures such as Operation Safeguard are expensive, while other measures may worsen prisoner rehabilitation or resettlement, which may lead to higher reoffending rates.
MoJ, HMPPS and wider government must ensure they learn lessons from the current capacity crisis and improve their handling of key risks and their focus on long-term resilience.
Today's Guardian:-
ReplyDeleteBoris Johnson’s plan to provide 20,000 new prison places by 2026 is due to be completed five years late and billions over budget, a “scathing” assessment by Whitehall’s spending watchdog has found.
The National Audit Office said current plans for prison capacity were “insufficient to meet future demand” amid a projected shortage of 12,400 places by the end of 2027, with costs expected to be at least £4bn higher than initially estimated.
HM Prison & Probation Service (HMPPS) has so far created a third – 6,518 – of the places in England and Wales it committed in 2021 to deliver by the mid-2020s.
Expansion plans in the prison estate are expected to cost between £9.4bn and £10.1bn, which auditors said would be at least £4.2bn above previous estimates.
The findings, which have been labelled as “unacceptable” by the Tory chair of parliament’s spending watchdog, come weeks after the justice secretary, Shabana Mahmood, enforced an early release scheme which freed 5,500 prison spaces in England and Wales.
Wednesday’s report said prison capacity was projected to increase more slowly than demand. The MoJ expects a shortage of 12,400 places by 2027, if demand increases according to its central forecast. It was relying on the current sentencing review to reduce demand for prison places and close the gap, auditors said.
Reasons for delays to prison expansion plans include “overestimating [the MoJ’s] ability to gain planning permission for three out of the six new prisons”, “unrealistic timelines” and government bodies not working together to prioritise delivery, the report said.
The watchdog blamed successive Conservative governments for capacity problems. “It is the result of previous governments’ failure to ensure that the number of prison places was aligned with criminal justice policies,” the report said.
Over 2020 and 2021, the MoJ increased the scale of its prison expansion plans from 13,400 to 20,000 additional places by the mid-2020s, auditors said.
Despite plans to build six new prisons, refurbish existing prisons and install temporary accommodation, HMPPS has been unable to increase prison places in line with demand. This had resulted in the prison estate operating at close to or at full capacity for over two years, auditors found.
The MoJ and HMPPS now expect the prison expansion plans to cost between £9.4bn and £10.1bn, which will be at least £4.2bn over previous estimates stated in 2021.
DeleteContributing to the overspend were several significant cost increases, auditors said. These include the rising cost of rapid deployment cells – temporary housing units placed in prisons – and inflation in the construction sector, where prices have risen by 40%.
The NAO said that until there was greater coherence between the government’s wider policy agenda and funding for its prison estate, the current crisis position would not represent value for money.
There would be a continued risk to capacity in prisons, the report said, because so many jails were in poor condition. A quarter of prison places – 23,000 – do not meet fire safety standards and HMPPS’s backlog of maintenance works has doubled to £1.8bn in the last four years.
Andrea Coomber, the chief executive of the Howard League for Penal Reform, said: “This scathing report underlines a fact that the new government has recognised – we cannot build our way out of the prison capacity crisis. Finding a solution is not simply a matter of supply; we have to reduce demand.”
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, the chair of the Commons’ public accounts committee, said the delay and extra costs were “clearly unacceptable”.
“The Ministry of Justice has been in firefighting mode, prioritising short-term solutions to the crisis. These are not only expensive, but also increase risks to prisoner, staff and public safety,” he said.
“The government must pull together a coherent and viable long-term plan for a prison estate that meets demand and delivers value for taxpayers’ money.”
In October, there were 85,900 people in prison across England and Wales, a 3% reduction since 6 September 2024, after the early release of at least 3,100 prisoners to manage severe capacity problems.
The MoJ is expected to publish new prison population projection figures later this week.
Responding to the report, James Timpson, the minister for prisons, said: “This report lays bare the litany of failures which brought our prison system to the brink. This not only risked public safety but added billions in extra costs to taxpayers.
“We have already taken immediate action to address the crowding chaos engulfing our jails, and will now focus on improving conditions in the long-term. This includes shortly publishing a 10-year prison capacity strategy to put our jails on a sustainable footing.”