Wednesday 3 July 2013

Time for Plan B

As Chris Grayling prepares to go before the Justice Affairs Select Committee today, he'd do well to be reflecting on whether it's now time to come up with a plan B in relation to the Probation Service. Although the opposition to his original scheme of decimation and privatisation has not been as comprehensive or effective as that of the lawyers in relation to Legal Aid, it has been rubbished far and wide, even by those expected to benefit from the break-up. 

Regular readers of this blog in particular will be acutely aware of the avalanche of scorn and criticism that has descended upon the proposed contracting out plans, and of course we are now aware that the government's own risk register highlights significant dangers of the whole thing going comprehensively pear-shaped. It's all going to cost more, lead to increased prison numbers and reoffending is likely to go up, not down. HM Treasury always had doubts about the whole thing and with the House of Lords throwing a spanner in the works, time is running out. 

As Alan Travis of the Guardian explains, it's all contained in that pesky risk register that Grayling didn't want publishing because it neatly spells out the size of the problem:-  

In Whitehall, risk registers are often discounted as simply a troubleshooting management tool where every possibility of something going wrong gets a mention just to cover their backs. The probation minister, Jeremy Wright, dismissed this one in similar terms saying they wouldn't be doing their job if they didn't plan for every eventuality, however remote.

Yet, unlike many such documents this one is unequivocal, with three "code blacks" – the highest risk rating in the traffic-light warnings of green, amber, red and black. The most stark is the risk that "an unacceptable drop in operational performance (during the programme) leads to delivery failures and reputational damage".
For probation, a "delivery failure" can mean that a medium-risk offender – who will be monitored in future by a private company working with a charity – goes on to murder or rape someone after their release because of supervision blunders.
The register says the problems that are likely to lead to an unacceptable drop in performance include "industrial relations/action, morale, management attention diverted; leadership/staff turnover/departures; inability or lack of willingness of trusts to backfill key posts; and that chairs and chiefs disengage".
The other two code blacks are closely related and raise other serious problems, such as insufficient support for the reforms among management and staff. This includes concerns that the behaviour of the existing leadership of the 35 probation trusts "is not conducive to progressing reforms" and that the Probation Chiefs Association and the Probation Association "actively promote resistance".
The third code black is a concern that the "affordability objectives for the reform cannot be demonstrated or met, leading to a failure to secure approvals during the programme". The register says they are particularly concerned that they will be unable to demonstrate the costs and benefits of the new payment-by-results model or fail to make promised savings.
The MoJ's rehabilitation programme board, chaired by Ian Poree, director of the programme and Grayling's principal adviser, also has serious worries about the likely level of private sector participation and whether the new service models will prove effective.
All this is in the government's own words remember and is an absolute gift to doubters and trouble makers both in the Commons and Lords to make mischief and really slow things down. The time for plan B has arrived and a sensible Justice Secretary would now be looking to find a way out of the mess he has found himself in.
It's time to revisit what the Probation Chiefs Association have said all along, namely that commissioning of services would be best left with the successful Probation Trusts. Their strength lies with established local partnerships and the evolving role of Police and Crime Commissioners. Give responsibility for the under 12 month prison leavers to the Trusts and leave it up to them, the experts, to facilitate, commission and organise the rehabilitation revolution we all want. 
There will have to be a re-think about how the extra work can be absorbed on reducing budgets, but many of us in probation would welcome a slimming down of some overheads, especially management and Head Office functions. There could be amalgamations, strategic partnerships or whatever, but for goodness sake Chris - wake up, smell the coffee and let probation demonstrate that they can deliver economies, an expansion of services and all without the risks associated with your crap plan A.    

20 comments:

  1. If PbR is really the way forward, wouldn't it be good practice to apply it to government ministers?
    I somehow don't think Grayling has a plan B unless B stands for Blind. It,s got to a complete u-turn or nothing.

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    1. PbR for MP's - now there's a thought........

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  2. Unrelated, but wotrth a comment given some of the debate on this blog over the past few days I think.
    Troubled families tsar Louise Casey, speaking at the local government association conference has said that social workers have to stop worrying about being 'nice', and be more assertive and firmer with colleagues and other agencies.
    Surely other agencies should have independance and autonomy with regard to their own professional practice, skill base, training and objectives?

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    1. Ah, yes Louise Casey - doesn't surprise me at all - about time I had another go at her - thanks for the tip off and reminder!

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  3. Just caught some of PM Question Time - what an embarrassing joke - the rest of the world must think we are governed by a bunch of school yard bullies, who seem to know all the answers, oblivious to the questions. Things are getting quite interesting, the ConDems excited by the idea that the opposition has been overthrown by a coup - lead by Len McCluskey (GS of Unite); Mr C's responses to questions about free schools etc seem shrouded in uncertainty, and in my opinion confirms my view that this Government don't have any appreciation of what is going on; or the mood of the nation. Perhaps he's shuffling his papers, trying to locate the Government's Plan B. And now - for something completely different:

    It never ceases to amaze me how politicians of all sides have such brass necks.....I was pleased to hear on the radio yesterday that Australia had relaxed their past attitude to asylum seekers and had welcomed the Pakistani asylum-seeker, Fawad Ahmed. Alas, my surprise and pleasure was short lived, he is not one of the 'boat people' but a Leg-spin bowler, and a bill to amend the Citizenship Act, having been passed, his application was fast-tracked, passed through Australia's lower house of parliament last Wednesday and he can now play in the Ashes...make of that what you will..

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    1. I find watching most politicians unedifying at the best of times - but as you indicate, PMQ's is just so pathetic. But here's the dilemma - they are elected, whereas the Lords are not, but the level of debate is far superior in the Upper House.

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  4. As I visited HMP Wolds last Friday - I was met by gleeful staff ..'we won't have to wear uniforms that make us look like the guy who reads the electric meter anymore'. Why the change of uniform...because G4S have lost the contract and the prison is being returned to the public sector - now that's a turn up for the books! U turns are us. I don't want to be anonymous, but I am not sure how to give myself a name..whats a URL?

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    1. HMP Wolds - blimey been a few years since I paid a visit there - the first private prison if I'm not mistaken - I guess kicking G4S out is just to let them know who's in charge - a warning shot across the bows as some might say, or a kick in the privates for the Olympic fiasco.

      I'm sorry about the difficulty finding an ID other than anonymous - I'm really not computer literate and can't help - anyone got some thoughts out there?

      Cheers,

      Jim

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  5. Just been looking at Graylings answers to some questions today. I was unaware that wiltshire probation are currently looking at becoming a private enterprise in their own right, and apparently financial assisstance can be provided by government to any other trust where splinter groups of probation want to set up shop on their own. I couldn't have read that right could I?

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    1. Yes you read that right! The government is very keen to encourage any Trust or group of employees to set up a 'mutual' and there is indeed a considerable amount of cash to assist on offer through the Cabinet Office. Whether it will all be fruitless and end in tears is quite another matter.....

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    2. Hi i'm new to this blog. And its a great one too! Quick Statement and then im gone. Re employee mutuals - cash is available from the cabinet office to assist employee's in setting up probation mutuals. However this money cannot be used as operating capital, just busines set up costs ; HR - Legal services , Payroll services etc. The mutuals will still need a substantial cash injection in order to get started with wages, fixed overheads etc. There is no help from the government in that respect.

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    3. Yes that's right and thanks for clarifying.

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  6. Jim

    You write..."a sensible Justice Secretary would now be looking to find a way out of the mess he has found himself in"

    The problem with that is that he hasn't found himself in this situation...he has engineered it! So there is no point in pleading to his sensibilities.

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    1. Yes indeed it is all of his making - but wiser counsel in the form of HM Treasury officials or colleagues even are whispering in his ear, rest assured!

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  7. Jim, I am getting hooked on this blog! - I find myself checking in every evening to see what's happening in Probation world. You have some real insight or maybe someone on the inside??? Keep up the good work.

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    1. Thanks - much appreciated - but I'm just trying to do my bit to preserve an honourable and successful public service. I'm completely contemptuous of the political process, but sufficiently angry about what is being proposed to use whatever legitimate means is available to defeat it.

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  8. Jim, are you sure that the MoJs Rehabilitation Programme Board have reservations _ you wouldn't have thought so, reading the letter sent yesterday to Probation Trust Board chairs and Chief Execs by Ian Poree. I quote " We remain clear that the structural changes we have proposed are the right way to open up the investment needed to reduce offending, and continue to work up the detailed design of how the new system will work in practice. The Government will seek to overturn the amendment in the House of Commons later this year. In the meantime, the amendment made by the Lord's has no impact on our ability to begin the transition to new arrangements". Looks like full steam ahead with Plan A to me........

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    1. Oh as far as the MoJ are concerned it is indeed full steam ahead, hence the upbeat fighting talk expressed in the letter you quote from. But they are civil servants merely carrying out their political masters instructions - the plan B is going to come about when the politico's realise it's all going pear-shaped and the time has arrived for it.

      There's been loads of examples where this has happened - the Legal Aid u-turn to name just the latest - so it's important to keep the pressure up to ensure the plan B becomes reality.

      The MoJ and Grayling just want us all to roll over and accept there's nothing we can do - it's psychological warfare if you like - convince your enemy that 'resistance is useless and the war is over' - no it isn't and time is on our side with the General Election date fixed. We're also right and the MoJ is wrong!

      Finally, HM Treasury has never liked these ideas and are watching very, very carefully.

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  9. Yes, do not despair - the letter to Trusts and Chiefs is nothing more than a smoke screen, neigh stamping one's feet, and I imagine Failing Grayling, for the remainder of his tenure, which is looking rather shaky if you ask me, will continue to trumpet his ideological nonsense, hoping someone will actually believe and support it - even though their is not a shred of evidence to support what he says. About industrial action, well they will not be able to suggest those who work for the probation service are in it for the money - but its very existence for which we need to stand up and be counted.

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  10. Yes, it's no time for apathy - action is required, so use your vote asap!

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