How About That!

I've just listened to David Gauke on the Today programme saying:-

"Our addiction to longer sentences is a serious mistake"

Now that's an understatement if ever I heard one, so the question is, what is his independent review into sentencing going to deliver? As we've seen from the Justice Secretary's diktat last week, Labour have reneged on the election promise of a fundamental probation review, so we must rely on a former Tory Justice minister to say something sensible. Interestingly, he ended this morning's interview by repeating that the 'bidding war must end', Labour of course having done their bit several times since being elected! 

I don't think we covered this New Statesman article from last October, but it clearly gives a strong hint as to the direction of travel. The question of course is, have the government got the bottle?   

How to fix the prisons crisis

The political bidding war over tougher sentences must end.

Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in. Perhaps a Godfather quotation is not entirely appropriate for the subject matter but, more than five years after leaving the Ministry of Justice I am back – rather to my surprise – chairing an independent review of sentencing policy.

It is a privilege to serve, not least because such a review is timely and necessary. It is timely because we face an immediate crisis in prison capacity. The current government inherited a situation in which we were very close to running out of places and had no choice but to take emergency measures and release prisoners early. Anyone in office over the summer would have done the same. But these emergency measures, including further releases today, only provided a brief respite. Demand for prison places is currently growing at 4,500 a year, much faster than the supply of places. This means that unless strategic measures are taken, we will repeatedly risk running out of places.

This capacity issue highlights why it is necessary to look more fundamentally at sentencing policy. We now incarcerate more people per head than any other western European country. Since 1993, the prison population of England and Wales has doubled, even as crime has consistently fallen (a fall, by the way, that can be seen in countries that have not increased their prison population). The reason for the increase in the prison population is clear. We sentence more people to prison and we sentence them for longer than we used to do.

Prison, of course, should continue to be a vital part of our criminal justice system. There are many circumstances in which it is the right form of punishment and the best way of protecting the public. But the large majority of prisoners will be released at some point and our very high reoffending rates suggest that our overcrowded prisons are not successful in rehabilitating offenders. We need to look at ways in which sentencing policy can better contribute to reducing reoffending and, as a consequence, crime.

There are some who will argue that we should build our way out of our prison capacity issues. But we cannot simply dismiss the reality that we will run out of capacity long before any new prisons can be built. And even if we do, there is a question of cost. On current projections, just to keep up with the growth in prison numbers, we would have to build three large prisons a year at a total cost of £2.3bn. Then there are the staffing, maintenance and other ongoing costs, which mean that it costs the taxpayer £52,000 per prisoner. Maintaining the current approach is, in effect, a significant and unfunded spending commitment at a time when tough decisions must be made about the public finances.

We really ought to be able to do better than an expensive system that fails to rehabilitate offenders. But how to do so? The Sentencing Review Panel is, of course, only at the beginning of its process and there are many aspects of sentencing policy we will want to review but let me highlight three aspects here.

The first is short sentences. As justice secretary, I argued that short prison sentences did more harm than good. The evidence at the time supported this contention but I want to revisit it and, in particular, look at how we can more effectively deal with the most prolific offenders.

Whatever we do with short sentences, however, will not solve the capacity issue when the prison population is increasingly made up of those serving four years or more, very often considerably more. Prisoners, like everyone else, respond to incentives and other jurisdictions have done more than us to reward good behaviour. Texas, for example, introduced a new approach which results in prisoners who complete their programmes, behave well and show evidence of rehabilitation spending less time in jail. The (admittedly very high) Texan prison population has fallen, as has its crime rate. So a second area of interest is whether we could develop an incentives policy appropriate for our system.

The third area is technology. Specifically, does it provide an opportunity to punish, protect society and rehabilitate offenders outside of prison in a way that is much more effective than has previously been possible? Electronic tagging, for example, is increasingly used but we need to understand whether more could be done. The same can be said of drink and drug monitoring. We need to understand the potential for current and future technologies to keep offenders out of prison in the first place, or to safely release some prisoners at an earlier stage than is currently the case. There may well be lessons to be learned from other jurisdictions to ensure that sentencing policy is properly able to exploit these technologies.

For the last 30 years, there has been a sentencing bidding war between the political parties seeking to compete to be seen as the toughest on crime by promising ever-longer prison sentences. Rightly, the public expects criminality to be punished and prison is often viewed as the only effective means of punishment. But the capacity crisis in our prisons has meant that – at the very least – we have no choice but to pause the increase in the prison population. It is also sensible that we now look more broadly at the evidence and ask whether sentencing policy should be more fundamentally reformed. By next spring, we should have the answer.

David Gauke

A New Diktat

No Review then, just a diktat from Labour government:-

Probation Service to cut crime by focusing on dangerous offenders

Speaking at a probation office in London (12 February), Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood set out her vision for the future of a Probation Service that protects the public, reduces reoffending and makes our streets safer as part of the Government’s plan for change.

To support this work, the Justice Secretary announced that 1,300 new probation officers will be recruited by March 2026. These new hires are in addition to the 1,000 officers to be recruited by this March, previously announced by Shabana Mahmood when she took office in July last year.

In her speech, the Justice Secretary argued that probation officers have been asked to do too much for too long. They have been burdened with high workloads and a one size fits all approach to managing offenders, regardless of the risk that they present to the public. This has meant officers have been unable to pay enough attention to those offenders who pose the greatest risk to society. This has led, in some cases, to missed warning signs where offenders have gone on to commit serious further offences, including murder.

With all probation units inspected in 2024 marked as “inadequate” or “requires improvement”, changes will now be made to help staff refocus their efforts where they have the greatest impact – with the offenders who need the most attention.

The Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary, Shabana Mahmood said:

The Probation Service must focus more time with offenders who are a danger to the public, and the prolific offenders whose repeat offending make life a misery for so many.

That means for low-risk offenders, we need to change our approach too. We need to tackle the root causes of their reoffending, and end a one-size-fits-all approach that isn’t working.

The first job of the state is to keep its people safe. Today, as part of our Plan for Change, I have set out changes to the probation service to protect the public and make our streets safer.

Greater time with higher risk offenders will be made possible by changing probation’s approach to the management of low risk offenders. Probation staff will now intervene earlier with these offenders, to understand the support they require and refer them to the services that will tackle the root causes of their reoffending.

These interventions are crucial as the latest data shows that the reoffending rate for those without stable accommodation is double those who are homeless, offenders employed six weeks after leaving prison had a reoffending rate around half of those out of work, and reoffending amongst those who complete drug treatment are 19 percentage points lower. This will help tackle a pressing issue the Criminal Justice System faces, with around 80 percent% of offenders now reoffenders.

The Chief Inspector of Probation, Martin Jones said:

The Probation Service does a vital job; however, our independent inspections highlight the serious challenges it faces- too few staff, with too little experience, managing too many cases to succeed.

These plans, which rightly focus on increasing probation resources and prioritising the most serious cases, are a positive step towards increasing impact on reoffending and better protecting the public.

To reduce the administrative burden resting on probation officers’ shoulders, the Justice Secretary will also introduce new technology including:

• A digital tool that will put all the information a probation officer might need to know about an offender into one place.
• Trialling a new system for risk assessing offenders, to make it more straightforward for probation officers to make robust decisions.
• Exploring the potential of AI to be used to automatically record and transcribe supervision conversations by taking notes in real time, which will allow probation staff to focus on building relationships while removing the need to write up notes into a computer afterwards.

In her speech, the Justice Secretary also exposed one of the inherited workload challenges faced by the probation service, which the Government will now address. Accredited Programmes are rehabilitative courses handed down by the courts to offenders to address the causes of their criminality.

Over the three years to April 2024, the probation service did not deliver these courses to nearly 13,000 offenders before their sentence expired. To address this issue, the Probation Service must now put in place a process of prioritisation so they will be delivered to offenders at the greatest risk of reoffending or causing serious harm. For those who will now not complete an accredited programme, they remain under the supervision of a probation officer. All the other requirements they face will remain in place.

Further information:Today’s speech will be published on gov.uk
Guidance will be issued to staff in the coming weeks to deliver these crucial changes that will ultimately help to cut crime and keep the public safe.

Advice for NQOs

Oh man, you have any idea how comforting it is that I found your blog. It just makes all my feelings (and my colleagues’) valid. Now here’s my situation and I would really appreciate some advice.

I qualified in December 2024 so only two months ago. Last couple of months of PQiP were overwhelming but I haven’t complained not even once during PQiP however I did take a full month of a/l as I really felt that I needed it. When I was about to come back to work, I had a death in the family and had to take another week off (unpaid) to deal with everything . Now keep in mind that I left on leave with 18 cases. When I came back, the next day I had a meeting with my new SPO who assured me that I will be protected the first months (gradual increase in cases and no HROSH allocations and constant support, especially given my personal circumstances). By the end of that week, I already had 33 cases in my name (some allocated while I was on a/l), 4 of them were HROSH, 3 co-working HROSH and some ROTLs and caretaking not even in my name - all within a WEEK! I literally can’t even look at my SPO no more as he literally lied to my face! I requested a supervision meeting and he just didn’t seem to take me seriously, reasoning that I am more than able to cope with it because I’m so good at what I do. He wanted me to take this as a compliment but I know it’s a “push” disguised as a compliment actually.

Oh, I forgot to mention that other NQOs from my cohort have many LROSH cases in their name and no HROSH, meanwhile I have 0 LROSH, only complex MROSH and HROSH.

I really love this job and I cannot believe that I already, so soon, got to the point where I want to quit. I feel like I have been lied to and the “business needs” are always a priority even before personal circumstances.

My question is: Will I still get my top up degree if I leave the service? Or should I wait and give notice only after I receive it? Will leaving 3 months after qualifying impact my status as an NQO? Assuming that at some point (if things get better) I will return?

I’d really appreciate some advice :) Thanks in advance!

--oo00oo--

Being good at your job or being gaslit to convince that you are is something probation does a lot of. As an NQO your caseload should be protected and it should be a mixture of cases up to certain B-2 level. Nothing above unless it's a co-work (even though you do most of the work).

If you're qualified then 'the board' that certifies you means that your degree is intact. I would look for other work if it's getting too much or have another conversation with your SPO. It's probation shooting itself in the foot with a lack of PDU culture uniformity. In other words, if you don't get on with the culture or you don't feel supported or you feel others are being treated better, you'll leave. 

At least they got rid of the 8-10,000 word dissertation to send most people over the edge at the end of their PQIP. I was bullied through much of mine and given cases as PQIP out of spite and because of low staffing levels, including a very dangerous rapist. I went to MAPPA without much training and was expected to carry out Maps for Change, even though a PQIP isn't supposed to have contact sex offence cases. I had 8 professional discussions, but I got through it. 

They exploit the fact that you're new, that you don't want to upset the apple cart and not have a reputation as someone negative or unable to handle it. They also exploit good staff as many organisations do, whilst the not so good manage to coast. Protect your health and your work/life balance - these are your priorities, not Probation's who are target driven to the impossible whilst still Jedi mind tricking you that you're great. 

It's all ok until an SFO turns up. Juggling so many plates with complex cases, it's bound to happen. It's not how you approach the work, but the workload itself. Probation emphasise the opposite and put the responsibility on you. You haven't been there long enough to find your lane. Don't volunteer for cases and downplay the 'I love the job' angle. 

For a supposedly compassionate end of the criminal justice system, it can be very toxic indeed with SPOs being absent of empathy whilst reminding you to have them for the POPs. 6 years in and it's a daily negotiation. Look elsewhere for something more befitting you. Don't leave until you have another job and when you look back on it, the training will have some value for anything you chose to do next. Good luck.

--oo00oo--

Don't burn any bridges get through your academic and any practice reviews to consolidate the training outcome. Don't give practice managers any reason to block your end certification remember it's also a practice based qualification not just the training period. Soon as your sorted, resign go to a different area where possible Good luck.

Time to remember

 

New Year - Old Story

We might as well start a new year with a very old story. This from the BBC news website last week, but only just come to my attention because - well, because I suppose I'm worn out writing about it all to little effect and I guess I'm depressed. Apologies to everyone who tried to post a link, but I've not looked at the blog for ages and unfortunately Virgin have seen fit to 'disappear' my email account. 

Probation: 'Too few staff, with too little experience, managing too many offenders'

Holding his chin in his hand and staring into the distance, a probation officer tells me how he planned to end his life. "I started to prepare how I was going to do it," he says. "I needed to get out of this work situation - I'd been doing the job for so long and it had got even busier and chaotic. I just couldn't cope and I needed an exit." 

His face is expressionless and his voice is solemn. Thinking about his family stopped him from going ahead - but he says panic attacks have become a regular occurrence because of his increasing workload. "It happens three or four times a week," he tells me. "Waves of nausea, heart racing, profuse sweating, and I wake up in the night thinking: 'Have I missed something at work that could lead to someone getting hurt?' "This is no way to live."

This isn't an isolated case - the National Association of Probation Officers (NAPO), which represents thousands of probation officers in England and Wales, says its members are "burning out due to the relentlessly high workloads".

Probation officers supervise offenders after prison sentences and check they follow other terms of their release, such as sticking to curfews and not taking drugs. They also help former prisoners with housing, employment and access to benefits, and protect the public by assessing the risk of further offending.

In its 2022/2023 annual report, external, the probation watchdog assessed most of the probation service was working beyond its capacity. The probation caseload - that's the number of former offenders staff are attending to - was 238,646 at the end of June 2024. That figure is slightly higher than in 2023, when it was 238,264. Probation officers may have multiple appointments with each person.

Since the HM Inspectorate of Probation report was published and those caseload figures were captured, probation officers' workloads have increased significantly - because the government released more than 2,000 offenders early from prisons in England and Wales to deal with overcrowding.

The justice secretary said this had prevented the penal system from reaching maximum capacity, and "a total breakdown of law and order".

"We used to have around eight appointments a day - some with people of high risk," the probation officer explains, "but that's gone up to 12 appointments - colleagues are crying at their desks as it's too much."

Appointments can involve a probation officer and offender discussing the rules of the probation, the dates and times of future appointments, and job and training opportunities. Some offenders are serious criminals who require close and regular monitoring, and if probation officers are overworked they might miss opportunities to prevent them reoffending.

The murder of Zara Aleena in east London in 2022 was partly blamed on mistakes made by probation staff. Her killer, Jordan McSweeney, attacked Ms Aleena nine days after his release on license from prison. The unit responsible for supervising him had staffing levels of just 61%.

The probation officer tells me about a former prisoner who should have been visited by a probation officer but wasn't - and then went on to stab someone. "That's what we're dealing with," he says. "It's not our fault, we can't do it all. "And then we have to live with feelings of guilt."

The government said it would recruit 1,000 new officers by March 2025 to help with the additional duties, but critics argue it takes at least a year to train a probation officer. Staff say it will take time before additional staff make any difference.

"It's not like we're going to have these extra staff now up and running which is what we want," another probation officer, who's been working in the sector for several years, says. "There's not a day that passes where I don't think about quitting. We're facing excessive workloads and poor pay - all of which have led to entrenched problems of staff retention and sickness rates in crucial roles."

Sickness levels among probation officers have gone up nationally. In the year to September 2024, HMPSS staff each lost an average of 11.4 working days to sickness absence - an increase from 11.2 average working days lost for the year ending 31 March 2024.

Senior probation staff claim at least 75% of that sickness is down to stress. The service is also facing a significant shortfall in staff. Last year's annual report from HM Inspectorate of Probation cited "chronic under-staffing" and the "knock-on impact on workloads" as key issues of concern. There are 20,652 full-time probation staff in England and Wales - an increase of 103 on the previous year.

His Majesty's Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) says 790 probation officers left the service in England and Wales over the last year (to the end of Sept 2024). This is a slight decrease (0.8%) compared to the previous year.

"My mental health is a mess. I'm getting upset stomachs and feeling drained all the time. It's my job and its affecting my health," the second probation officers says. "I get why people are leaving - I would if I didn't have a mortgage and bills."

Recent inspectorate reports into probation services in various parts of the country also make for grim reading - with many identifying staffing to be an issue. In November, the Bradford and Calderdale Probation Delivery Unit in West Yorkshire was assessed by the Inspectorate to be "inadequate", and at risk of not protecting the public from harm because of "large gaps in staffing".

Martin Jones, chief inspector of probation, says he's deeply concerned warning signs could be missed because of the excessive workload. "The more pressure probation officers are under, they may miss things going wrong, so - of course - I'm acutely worried about that. "What you're seeing is a service under huge pressure. My assessment is the probation service has too few staff, with too little experience, managing too many cases. Is that really sustainable for the long term?"

A Ministry of Justice spokesperson told the BBC the new government inherited a prison system in "crisis", and it had been "forced into taking difficult but necessary action so it can keep locking up dangerous criminals and protect the public".

"This included replacing the last Government's early release scheme with one that gives probation staff more time to prepare for a prisoner's release and with new protections in relation to domestic abuse offences."

Message to Minister

1. The Problem

Minister warns prison space may run out despite expansion plans

The justice secretary has said even under the government's plans to open 14,000 more prison places, they could still run out of space over the next few years. Shabana Mahmood told the BBC that "building alone is not enough" to deal with the critical lack of space in UK jails. The government is publishing its 10-year strategy to deal with overcrowding in prisons - including more details of how it will create 14,000 more places in England and Wales by 2031. It comes after prisons were just 100 spaces away from reaching full capacity over the summer. (From BBC news website.)

2. The Narrative

By managed decline or by cavalier incompetence, probation has gone. What's left of it has become part of the problem rather then offering any solution. It's back filling prisons, impacting severely on the parole board, and costing too much police time rounding up all those that have been recalled. It doesn't manage risk any more, it's running away from it. Blame Grayling, blame NAPO, blame managers and an inexperienced workforce. Blame excessive caseloads, burnout and sickness levels. Blame those that don't give a toss about the service itself but see it as a catapult for self advancement. Blame whatever, but it's the model that's wrong. It's the policies that have created the current model that are wrong.

What's coming next isn't going to help either. More community based punishment will only serve to cement probation within the prison service. Punished by the prison service, or punished by the probation service, and those that are released on licence must still be seen to be serving their punishment (not sentence) in the community. The current model is corrosive, and I feel so sad that a service with such a positive, meaningful and worthwhile history has ended up where it is today. ('Getafix a contributor) 

3. The Solution:-

Sort Probation Out!

4. Others agree:-

Billions earmarked for new jails would be better invested in probation

The Howard League has responded to the government’s plans to open up 14,000 more prison places by 2031, outlined in a new 10-year strategy announced today (Wednesday 11 December).

Andrea Coomber KC (Hon.), Chief Executive of the Howard League for Penal Reform, said:

 “We cannot build our way out of this crisis. The billions of pounds earmarked for opening new jails would be better invested in securing an effective and responsive probation service, working to cut crime in the community.

“Problems in prisons spill out into the towns and cities around them, and new jails put added strain on local public services. When violence and self-harm are rife behind bars, it is hardly surprising that proposals to build more prisons meet significant opposition from residents living nearby.

“This is why the forthcoming review of sentencing is so important. Unless we see concerted action to make sentences proportionate and reduce demand on the system, this crisis will deepen and leave an even bigger mess for future generations to tackle.”

Projections published last week by the Ministry of Justice show that the number of people in prison could rise to as high as 105,200 by March 2029. On Monday, the population stood at 86,089.

The prison system is severely overcrowded, with more than half of jails in England and Wales holding more people than they are designed to accommodate. A long line of official inspection reports published in recent months have revealed how rising numbers are contributing to dire conditions, with many people in prison spending hours on end locked inside their cells with nothing to do.

The prison population projections came only a day after the National Audit Office (NAO) warned that there will be a continued risk to capacity in prisons, because so many jails are in poor condition. A quarter of prison places – 23,000 – do not meet fire safety standards and HM Prison and Probation Service’s backlog of maintenance works has doubled to £1.8bn in the last four years. (Howard League)  

Missions; Milestones; Money

No surprises there then! The Labour government's missions and milestones leads to a very close examination of how the money is going to be spent. I think we can all see the promised 'Review' of probation is not going to happen and we're going to be Royally stuffed again. I sadly predict it's pretty much 'game over' for our profession as Labour clearly don't understand what we're about and that we could be so much part of a solution rather than the problem. All they've done so far is signal massive sentence inflation! 

I'm really not sure I've got the energy or interest any more either. Elon Musk has pretty much 'done' for traffic from Twitter and it'll take ages to rebuild it from Bluesky. Viewing figures are considerably down and so are readers contributions. If this was a business, the writing would be on the wall and it would be time to shut up shop. It's been a hell of a good run though and despite some heartache, it's been fun as well. BBC website today:- 

Stop non-priority spending, Treasury warns ministers

Ministers have been told spending not contributing to the government's priorities should be stopped, as Chancellor Rachel Reeves promises to take "an iron fist against waste".

As part of a spending review covering up to 2029, Reeves will ask departments to identify efficiency savings worth 5% of their current budgets.

Department budgets will also be scrutinised by panels, including former senior bankers, to advise on what spending is necessary.

--oo00oo--

BBC news website:-

Six takeaways from Keir Starmer's 'plan for change'

All of the milestones are to be completed by the next general election, likely in 2029 - and in the case of clean power, to be "on track" for the 2030 deadline.

The targets on housebuilding, NHS waiting lists, and school-readiness apply to England only.

Recruiting more police is for England and Wales, while clean power and raising household income are UK-wide.

They are:

• Putting more money in the pockets of working people
• Building 1.5m homes and fast-tracking planning decisions on at least 150 major infrastructure projects
• Treating 92 percent of NHS patients within 18 weeks
• Recruiting 13,000 more police officers, special constables and PCSOs in neighbourhood roles
• Making sure three-quarters of five year olds are school-ready
• 95% clean power by 2030

-oo00oo--

BBC news website:-

The five missions, which Sir Keir said would form "the backbone of the Labour manifesto and the pillars of the next Labour government", include:

• Securing the "highest sustained growth" in the G7 group of rich nations, made up of the UK, US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan, by the end of Labour's first term
• Making Britain a '"clean energy superpower", removing fossil fuels from all of Britain's electricity generation by 2030
• Improving the NHS
• Reforming the justice system
• Raising education standards

Probation News

This recently announced by HM Chief Inspector of Probation:-

National Inspection announcement

Today we are announcing a national probation inspection, covering England and Wales, and reviewing the ability of regions and PDUs to deliver probation services effectively.

National arrangements for service delivery have a crucial role in enabling effective outcomes in frontline probation work. We see some of the impact of this activity through our regional and PDU inspections, but they do not give us a full picture.

It is clear we are unlikely to see any significant improvement in our core programme of PDU inspections in the short term. Regions and PDUs need more time to allow recent changes, including the implementation of SDS40 and Probation Reset, to embed.

By taking some time ahead of our next regional inspection programme to carry out a national inspection, we will be able to gather a comprehensive overview of the things that help or hinder the effective delivery of probation services. This will allow us to make recommendations to drive improvement and target them where we believe they can have the most impact.

Fieldwork for our national inspection will begin later this month and we look forward to sharing the results in the spring. Our inspection standards have also been designed to allow us to carry out further national inspections in the future, where we think there is a need to do so.

--oo00oo--

Then we have this Press release:-

Inspectorate flags concerns as number of SFO reviews meeting required standards continues to decline

HM Inspectorate of Probation has published its third annual report of Serious Further Offence (SFO) reviews, highlighting a decline in the number of reviews completed to the expected standard for the second year running.

The Inspectorate’s SFO inspectors quality assured 87 SFO reviews this year, rating 46 per cent as ‘Good’, but 52 per cent as ‘Requires improvement’, emphasising the need for SFO teams to be sufficiently resourced and experienced, for more effective management oversight, and for improved centralised training.

The report also highlighted the backlog of SFO reviews due in many regions – causing delays in the probation service identifying and implementing the required learning, and in sharing findings with victims and their families.

Chief Inspector of Probation, Martin Jones, said: “The probation service manages a large and complex caseload in the community. By its very nature, risk is inherent in that work and can never be eliminated. Against that backdrop, the number of SFOs committed each year remain low as a proportion of the overall workload, but the impact of serious further offences on victims and their families cannot be underestimated, and they are an important opportunity for learning. So, it is disappointing we have continued to see a reduction in the number of SFO reviews that meet the required standard. More work is needed to develop and support reviewing managers, alongside more transparency and the sharing of high-quality data and effective practice across regions to support a collective developmental approach.”

For the first time, this year’s annual report also sought reflections from probation staff on their experiences of the SFO review process, and their experiences of the organisational culture linked to SFO reviews.

This raised recurring concerns about the SFO review policy framework, how it is applied, and its outcomes and impact. There was also feedback that the level of support provided to those involved in SFO reviews needs to be improved, with respondents concerned about a ‘culture of blame’ existing within HMPPS. Staff reported they often felt individual accountability was attributed to them, with a failure to acknowledge and address wider and procedural systemic issues.

Last year’s SFO annual report made seven recommendations to HMPPS, which focused on the quality of SFO reviews, the associated action planning, and the embedding of learning. Concerningly, little progress has been made against these recommendations and, as a result, this year they are repeated, alongside a further four recommendations to support the improvements the Inspectorate’s quality assurance activity and staff engagement show are required.

Mr Jones added: “The SFO review process should be utilised as a constructive learning opportunity, yet with backlogs, delays in communicating with victims, and the difficult experiences described by those involved, the necessary learning culture is not being achieved. Improvements must be put in place moving forward.”

--oo00oo--

Still no sign of the promised 'Probation Review' from the new government, although just like the last government, they seem keen on adding to prison capacity problems by increasing sentences and of course have doubled the length of custody Magistrates can impose. 

I guess we ought to mention this, but to be honest holding consultations over Christmas and New Year is pretty daft, unless of course you're not really serious about it:- 

The Justice Committee is today (Tuesday, 26 November) launching its first new inquiry of the Parliament entitled ‘Rehabilitation and resettlement: ending the cycle of reoffending’.

Inquiry: Rehabilitation and resettlement: ending the cycle of reoffending
Submit evidence here

MPs on the newly appointed cross-party Committee, chaired by Labour MP Andy Slaughter, will examine the levels of reoffending in England and Wales. They will look in detail at the rehabilitative regimes offered across training and resettlement prisons within the male and female prison estate, including for remand prisoners, IPP prisoners and those in youth custody.

The inquiry comes as latest Ministry of Justice data covering October to December 2022 showed the overall proven reoffending rate was 26.4%, with adults released from custodial sentences of less than 12 months having a proven reoffending rate of 56.6%. For the year ending December 2023, 78% of all offenders cautioned or convicted for an indictable offence in 2023 had at least one prior caution or conviction.

The HM Inspector of Prisons annual report for 2023-24 raised concerns over the length of time inmates were spending in their cells, with 30 out of 32 inspections rated poor or insufficiently good for purposeful activity.

Chair comment

Justice Committee Chair Andy Slaughter MP said: “Prisons and the Probation Service are facing significant and unsustainable pressures. The Justice Committee’s first inquiry will focus in detail on how to break the cycle of reoffending we are witnessing across our justice system.

“We will examine reoffending rates in England and Wales and assess the current rehabilitation regimes offered within different types of prisons, including training, education and purposeful activity.

“The inquiry will also measure the adequacy of support provided to ex-offenders on release including homelessness prevention, employment opportunities and health and wellbeing services, as well as the role of non-custodial sentences in promoting rehabilitation amid the Sentencing Review.

“With limited opportunities for ex-offenders to reintegrate back into society post release and a rise in the numbers leaving jails homeless, a wide-ranging assessment of the prison revolving door is long overdue. The Committee will listen carefully to those across the sector and make evidence-based recommendations to Ministers to shift the dial on this crucial issue.”

Terms of reference for the call for evidence

The Committee invites written submissions through the inquiry website addressing any or all of the issues raised in the following terms of reference by January 10, 2025.

NAO Drops Bombshell

It will be recalled that it was a report from the National Audit Office that finally sealed the fate of 'Transforming Rehabilitation', Chris Grayling's disastrous part-privatisation of the Probation Service, and a report greatly assisted by testimony provided by readers of this blog. Well, here the NAO does not mince its words again in utterly condemning the last government's failed attempt to do the basics in providing enough prison places required as a result of their deeply flawed Criminal Justice policies. It's to be earnestly hoped that the new government will grasp the nettle following the on-going Sentencing Review, together with commissioning the election promise of a fundamental review of the Probation Service. NAO press release:-     

Prison expansion plan was ‘unrealistic and not prioritised’ – NAO

• Government’s 2021 commitment to deliver 20,000 new prison places is not expected to be achieved until 2031 – around five years later than planned
• Current expansion plans are insufficient to meet estimated future demand, with a projected shortage of 12,400 places by end of 20271
• Expansion costs are expected to be at least £4.2bn (80%) above original estimates in 2021

The prison capacity crisis is the result of previous governments’ failure to ensure that the number of prison places was aligned with criminal justice policies such as sentencing and police numbers. Coupled with delays in the current expansion plans, this has led to a reactive and expensive approach that will not meet future demand or deliver value for money in the long-term, according to a new National Audit Office (NAO) report.

The independent public spending watchdog has found, as of September 2024, HM Prison & Probation Service (HMPPS) has so far created a third (6,518) of the 20,000 additional places it committed to deliver by mid-2020s.2

The new date for completing the remaining places is 2031 – five years later than expected – increasing pressure on capacity and costing more. Prison capacity is projected to increase more slowly than demand and MoJ currently projects a shortage of 12,400 places by 2027, if demand increases according to its central forecast. It is relying on the current Sentencing Review to reduce demand for prison places and close the gap.

There are several reasons for delays to the Ministry of Justice’s and HMPPS’s prison expansion plans, including overestimating its ability to gain planning permission for three out of the six new prisons it had planned to build; unrealistic timelines; insufficient understanding of programme requirements and government bodies not working together to prioritise delivery.

The MoJ and HMPPS now expect the prison expansion plans to cost between £9.4 billion and £10.1 billion, which will be at least £4.2 billion over previous estimates stated in 2021. Contributing to the overspend are several significant cost increases. These include the cost of Rapid Deployment Cells (RDC), units with a lifespan of 15 years, that will deliver one thousand places at least three years later than planned; as well as inflation in the construction sector, where prices have risen by 40%.

Over 2020 and 2021, the MoJ increased the scale of its prison expansion plans from 13,400 to 20,000 additional places by the mid-2020s. Despite plans to build six new prisons, refurbish existing prisons and install temporary accommodation, HMPPS has been unable to increase prison places in line with demand. This has resulted in the prison estate operating at close to or at full capacity for over two years.

In October 2024 there were 85,900 people in prison across England and Wales, a 3% reduction since 6 September 2024, following the early release of at least 3,100 prisoners to manage severe capacity issues.

Government has had to move quickly to respond to the emerging capacity crisis. HMPPS has set out operational red lines it would not cross in managing pressures to ensure the safety of staff and prisoners, this includes restricting crowding to limits it has assessed as safe.

Government has largely prioritised short-term ways to increase capacity, such as moving prisoners to open prisons before turning to releasing prisoners early when it had exhausted other options.

However, the MoJ and HMPPS recognise that these actions in response to the capacity issues could impact the effective rehabilitation of prisoners, which in turn may lead to higher reoffending rates and expose the public to a greater safety risk. They are also expensive: HMPPS’s contingency measure to rent police cells overnight (Operation Safeguard) costs nearly five times the average daily cost for a prison place.

Over the next few years there will be continued risk to the capacity in prisons, because of the poor condition of parts of the estate. A quarter (23,000) of prison places do not meet fire safety standards and HMPPS’s backlog of maintenance works has doubled to £1.8 billion from £0.9 billion in the last four years. HMPPS estimates it would cost £2.8 billon over the next five years to bring the whole estate into a ‘fair’ condition, more than double its current maintenance expenditure.

The NAO recommends that the MoJ, the Cabinet Office, HM Treasury, the Home Office and other government bodies should work together to:

• Achieve alignment between government objectives which impact the prison population and the capacity to support these aims
• Learn lessons from the current crisis, including the additional costs involved and impact on prisoner outcomes
• Provide greater transparency to the public and Parliament, including publishing capacity projections alongside its population projections

“The Government must learn lessons from the current prison capacity crisis to ensure the long-term resilience and cost effectiveness of the prison estate.”

 Gareth Davies, head of the NAO

--oo00oo--

Increasing the capacity of the prison estate to meet demand

Background

HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) is the executive agency of the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) responsible for managing the prison service in England and Wales. We last reported on the prison estate in 2020. We concluded that HMPPS was failing to meet its aims of providing a safe, secure and decent prison estate.

HMPPS was also facing a significant challenge to meet its commitment to deliver 13,400 additional prison places. We highlighted that MoJ and HMPPS needed to resist taking a reactive approach to capacity pressures and to instead work with HM Treasury produce a long-term strategy to deliver a prison estate fit for purpose.

Since then, MoJ has increased the scale of its prison expansion plans from 13,400 to 20,000 additional places by the mid-2020s in response to projected increases in demand. HMPPS is delivering the additional places through a portfolio of prison capacity programmes (prison expansion portfolio), which includes a mix of building new prisons, expanding and refurbishing existing prisons, and installing temporary accommodation.

HMPPS has delivered 6,518 additional places between 2020 and September 2024, 278 of which are from additional crowding at four private prisons. Despite this, the prison estate has been operating at close to full capacity since autumn 2022, with many prisons severely crowded.

If prisons reach full capacity, there would be significant impacts on the wider criminal justice system. For example, courts would not be able to try cases where suspects may be given prison sentences. MoJ and HMPPS have had to implement various emergency measures, such as releasing prisoners early, to ensure that the criminal justice system continues to function.

Scope of the report

This report examines:

• MoJ’s and HMPPS’s progress in expanding and maintaining the prison estate
• MoJ’s and HMPPS’s oversight and management of recent capacity pressures and the impact of measures it has used to alleviate pressures
• future risks to the resilience of the prison estate

Conclusion

The current crisis in the prison estate is a consequence of previous governments’ failure to align criminal justice policies with funding for the prison estate, leading to reactive solutions which represent poor value for money. Policies such as introducing tougher sentences and increasing the number of police officers led to steep increases in expected demand for prison places. However, years of under-investment in maintaining the prison estate put MoJ and HMPPS in a weak position to respond to these increases.

HMPPS has therefore taken a reactive and expensive approach focused on building new places urgently at increased cost. Until there is greater coherence between the government’s wider policy agenda and funding for its prison estate, the current crisis position will not represent value for money.

HMPPS’s expansion plan was unrealistic and was not prioritised by the government, with resulting delays that have exacerbated the current crisis. MoJ’s central projection scenario shows demand for spaces exceeding capacity by 12,400 places by the end of 2027, even if current expansion projects are delivered to revised timelines.

We welcome MoJ’s commitment to a more sustainable approach to ensuring a resilient prison estate, although MoJ and HMPPS have yet to set out plans for closing the gap and considering the cost trade-offs involved. Emergency measures such as Operation Safeguard are expensive, while other measures may worsen prisoner rehabilitation or resettlement, which may lead to higher reoffending rates.

MoJ, HMPPS and wider government must ensure they learn lessons from the current capacity crisis and improve their handling of key risks and their focus on long-term resilience.

Off Piste 3

What with it being 'Black Friday' season, the weekend, thoughts turning to Christmas preparations and decreasing numbers of people watching TV in 'linear' form or reading print newspapers, I wonder how many readers noticed yesterday's news regarding the TV licence? It will rise by £5 from April in line with inflation and there was this:-

"Meanwhile, the DCMS said it was scrapping a review of the BBC's funding model that was set up by the previous government, and is disbanding its expert panel. Instead, the government will examine the issue of BBC funding as part of the charter review process, before the BBC's current royal charter expires in 2027."

Of course it's long been apparent that technological changes having dramatically changed the broadcasting and hence consuming landscape, the legally-enforced TV licence method of funding Public Service Broadcasting in the form of the BBC was fast becoming unsustainable. However, I think many can breathe a sigh of relief that it doesn't fall to a Conservative government to be making the key decisions. 

Interestingly, the BBC Chair, Samir Shah CBE, made a wide-ranging and significant speech recently 'A Very British Success Story: The PSBs at the heart of UK creativity' that not only covered the whole PSB landscape, but also crucially Charter Review and the funding model. He made the point that not only had the BBC been forced to make painful cuts due to the licence fee being frozen, but had also been required to take on increased responsibilities such as the funding of the World Service and free licences for the over 75's. He might also have mentioned the funding of the Local Democracy Reporting Service and broadband roll out to rural areas.

Not surprisingly the effect on the BBC has been dramatic with massive cuts to the local radio network last year, together with the World TV Service and more recently the reduction of journalists affecting Newsnight and now Hardtalk and news provision generally. Interestingly, this recent article 'Elite Paywalls or Social Media Misinformation: The Alarming Future of ‘Two Tier’ Journalism' by Bylinetimes highlights the dangers:- 

The UK is facing a “grim” world of “two tier” journalism, in which access to high-quality information is reserved for the few, with increasing numbers relying solely on dangerously unreliable online sources for their news, according to a new Parliamentary report.

The Lords Communications and Digital Select Committee, in a report on “the future of news” suggest that current trends in the industry such as the worsening economics of mass market journalism, low trust among the public and a growing number of people actively avoiding mainstream reporting is contributing to this malaise.

It states starkly that “There is a realistic possibility of the UK’s news environment fracturing irreparably along social, regional and economic lines within the next 5–10 years. The implications for our society and democracy would be grim.”

It adds, having taken evidence from a wide range of people, including national newspapers and group owners, national broadcasters, academics, think tanks and tech giants on a visit to San Francisco, “The period of having informed citizens with a shared understanding of facts is not inevitable and may not endure.”

It warns that use of AI tools is about to make matters even worse since it will give more power to the tech giants to create “engaging news summaries giving them unprecedented influence over the type of news we see”.

The article spells out many of the behavioural changes going on:- 

Statistics in the report on where people get their news backed up the change in the last five years. BBC's flagship BBC1 channel saw a decline from 58% to 43% between 2019 and this year, ITV were down from 40% to 30% and Channel Four was down from 17% to 14%. The Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday was down from 18% to 13%, the Guardian and Observer was stable at about 10%. Increasingly people were getting their news from the internet with YouTube going from six per cent to 19%, TikTok from 0% to 11% and Instagram from 13% to 18%. Only Twitter, now X under Elon Musk, showed a slight fall having previously risen from 16% to 17%, it has now fallen back to 15%, lower than in 2019.

Returning to Samir Shah's speech, it will be noted that he has effectively started Charter Renewal discussions by suggesting that it's time to ditch the routine of having the BBC's very existence under continuous review (there are midterm reviews) and instead enshrine its status in law. I suppose the subtext is trying to remove political interference, but that of course fundamentally means sorting out funding.

At this point I should declare that I thought I had got the answer. Seeing that technological change means that it's only a matter of time before terrestrial broadcasting will cease, along with the Public Telephone Service, all to be replaced with broadband distribution, you simply ask the Internet Service Provider to collect a tax. There, sorted! Why had nobody thought of this? Well it turns out they had of course and the idea was casually floated by the BBC four years ago, not surprisingly to be met with right-wing fury from the likes of the Taxpayers Alliance and Daily Mail. 

It is the answer though for a number of reasons:-

• Cheap to collect
• Difficult to avoid
• De-criminalisation
• Individual not property based
• Easy to apply age, disability or income discounts
• Could help fund all PSB's eg Ch4
• Maintains concept of 'universality'