Thursday, 2 July 2026

Confidence Broken

I guess I should be paying more attention, but I seem to think we never covered this Guardian article from 19th June and I notice Napo are kicking up a bit of a row, no doubt with the fast-approaching AGM in mind. 

Excessive probation workloads put public at risk in England and Wales, union warns

Exclusive: Napo declares no confidence in probation service managers and threatens industrial action

The public is “at direct risk” from unsupervised ex-offenders because probation officers in England and Wales are being asked to cope with excessive workloads, a union has said.

As ministers prepare to release and monitor tens of thousands more prisoners this autumn, Napo’s executive has declared for the first time that it has no confidence in managers at the probation service.

In a worrying development for the government, the union is threatening to launch industrial action in three months’ time unless members receive increased support and pay.

The motion comes at a crucial time for the government’s plans to relieve pressure on the criminal justice system. From September, ministers will embark on the biggest expansion of tagging in British history so that up to 40,000 former offenders will be monitored by tags and overseen by probation officers – a 40% increase from the 28,000 currently on tags.

Last year, an official watchdog warned that the probation service had too few staff with too little experience and training, which it said left members of the public at risk. The public accounts committee found that longstanding staff shortages had left probation staff dealing with “excessive and unmanageable workloads”, with officers working at 126% of capacity for several years in some areas.

Tania Bassett, a Napo national official, said probation officers were unable to cope with the growing number of ex-offenders they were being asked to supervise, and many more people were ending up on the street.

“Excessive workloads and staff burnout poses a direct risk to the public with staff being unable to effectively manage the risk of their clients in the community,” she said. “Added to this is the shortage of accommodation, which will result in more people being homeless and therefore more likely to reoffend.”

Managers were trying to get rid of a tool that measures the workload each probation officer is being asked to cope with, a move that would hide the magnitude of the tasks they were being asked to perform, Bassett said.

“The loss of a workload measurement tool will leave staff, including managers, unable to see their workloads and therefore unable to evidence that they are overworked,” she said.

The Prison Service met only 26% of its targets for timeliness of appointments and delivery of services in 2024-25, down from 50% in 2022, according to the National Audit Office. The Ministry of Justice said that between 2023 and 2025, 31% of target probation appointments did not take place.

The MoJ said earlier this year that it would recruit 1,300 extra probation officers in the next year as part of a £700m investment by 2029, which included £100m for the tagging expansion by the end of this parliament. The department said “proximity monitoring technology” for domestic abusers and stalkers would be tested in a £5m pilot.

The union’s executive has voted for a motion that says a failure to address persistently high vacancy and staff sickness rates and removing a tool that measures workloads means that “the current position is untenable and cannot continue”.

It says: “[HM Prison and Probation Service’s] leadership has demonstrably failed in its duty of care to the workforce of the Probation Service, and this represents a reckless disregard for our welfare and professional integrity as well as the safety of our communities.”

James Timpson, the prisons minister, told MPs last week that the probation service was under severe pressure after disclosing that staff were each managing an average of 32 ex-offenders.

“It’s running too hot … we inherited a system that was broken, and we’re putting it all back together again. It’s going to take time,” he told the justice select committee.

A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said: “We remain committed to working closely with trade unions to ensure our staff continue to get the support they need to cut crime and protect the public. We have full confidence in Probation Service leadership to deliver the necessary changes and improvements.”

--oo00oo--


Napo is pressing for urgent national action to tackle the workload crisis before it pushes probation staff any further to the brink. We are calling for immediate workload protections, stronger safety measures, a fair and jointly owned workload measurement tool, protected learning time, and meaningful partnership with the trade unions. These are practical solutions that put staff wellbeing, public protection and professional standards first. 

42 comments:

  1. They could simply move us back into 'red' today, which would give huge relief to staff and give us adequate breathing space until either the staffing issue is fixed or they decide what work actually doesn't need doing. But that would require Jim Barton to show us as the new DG he actually cares for his staff.

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    1. https://www.gov.uk/government/people/jim-barton

      Biography
      Executive Director HMPPS Change
      HM Prison and Probation Service

      Previous roles in government
      Executive Director Probation Reform Programme
      2018 to 2022

      And then I found this:

      https://www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi?jcode=2002921

      Looks like Jim is in need of some help. The times they are a changin'...

      Head of Change (Ref: 19251)
      HM Prison & Probation Service
      Apply before 11:55 pm on Wednesday 8th July 2026

      Reference number: 468433
      Salary: £91,540 - £105,912
      A Civil Service Pension with an employer contribution of 28.97%
      Job grade: Other HMPPS Band 11
      Contract type: Permanent

      The Change Portfolio team is located within the HMPPS Change Directorate and is responsible for overseeing change across HMPPS.
      The Head of Change will work collaboratively with the Head of Change Delivery to support the Deputy Director, Change Delivery and Change Portfolio Office
      Provide accountability and leadership for the whole of the HMPPS change function, including the prison reform portfolio, the flexible resourcing pool and the assurance teams for all Change activity.
      Protect the organisation from Change Overload and controls to monitor and manage the health of the portfolio.
      The post holder reports to the Deputy Director of HMPPS Change Directorate and will manage a large team.
      This post is non-operational.

      We’ll assess you against these Behaviours during the selection process:

      Seeing the Big Picture - Application and Interview
      Leadership - Application and Interview
      Working Together - Application and Interview
      Delivering at Pace - Interview Only

      Alongside your salary of £91,540, HM Prison & Probation Service contributes £26,519 towards you being a member of the Civil Service Defined Benefit Pension scheme.

      Delete
    2. Jim Barton is a career civil servant. He has never worked in Probation and has no real skin in the game. He does what he is told and the higher ups look after him. Wasn’t he the guy who delivered the train crash that was TR and was then in charge of the disastrous tagging contracts. He is apparently quite affable but he does seem to be the harbinger of doom and things going badly wrong for probation. Fall guy or saviour? Third time lucky? What could possibly go wrong? Maybe he just wants to fix all the things he has been part of breaking so he can retire in comfort guilt free.

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  2. The trouble is that they don’t care about anyone other than the higher echelons…

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  3. You are not going to take any meaningful industrial action and your bluff will be called again. You need two things to do your job, 1. A stock of housing and 2. A stock of jobs. Go on all out strike to obtain those tools.
    sox

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    1. Silly talk members need proper functioning unions to feel able to do anything current Napo status useless outlook the same .

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    2. 20:22 And your solution to supporting these proper unions is? Napo are doing reasonably well with this getting some mainstream media coverage. Previously it was Al Jazeera and far left newspapers no one reads. Tania Bassett who was a PO and cares about the profession should get credit where it is due. It is a complex thing to get across to the general public who are bombarded with punitive and retributive lines not least by the BBC R4 Today programme that seem to channel a distinct hang em and flog em, anti public sector, anti welfare state, anti union, pro Reform, anti Burnham, vibe whilst banging on about VAR these days.

      Delete
  4. This from the NAPO website;
    ‘The Probation Trade Unions have now formally submitted the detailed 2026–27 pay claim to senior HMPPS management, marking the next stage in our campaign to secure the pay, recognition and respect that probation staff deserve.
    This follows the opening of 'without prejudice' discussions earlier this month. Further talks will take place throughout July and August and Napo remains absolutely clear: members must have a pay offer to consider before 1 September.’

    No doubt in order to have something to offer to conference.
    At the risk of being monotonous, can I remind people that the wage rise is supposed to be paid on 1st April this year and every year. It’s not rocket science.

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  5. Just a little heads up for those colleagues who may have been allegedly overpaid by Shared Services. I retired over 6 years ago and recently received another request to repay monies they claimed had been paid incorrectly. A couple of years before retiring I tried to sort this out, but for those who recall the shit show Shared Services couldn’t explain how and why the money had been paid. Only that it had been. This carried on with intermittent contact from said department. Anyway to cut a long story short they tried again, this time quoting a higher figure, again without much explanation. I mean basically they fucked it up and don’t like being asked why. It’s now at an end as this matter dragged on for over 6 years and falls under Section 5 of the Limitations Act 1980. It was only when I pointed this out that they accepted there was nothing they could do to recover any monies. Please note I did not seek to avoid repaying this money, they simply failed to follow up promptly and spent so long quoting incorrect figures that they just ran out of time. Should anyone be in a similar position just quote the section and the Act.

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    1. have napo or unison or gmb offered this advice? If not, why not?

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    2. Very basic trade union training illustrates all the reasons why employees do not have to pay any overpaid monies back. There are some rules known as a mistake in fact in which the employer has the liability. It cannot be reclaimed without permission as an unlawful deduction so never give it back.

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    3. I should also note the other is a mistake in law . This one is repayable though.

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  6. Most public sector pay awards go past April as unions negotiate a better deal , thing is why does a computer operator and breach recall operative deserve the same as a teacher social worker or nurse ?

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  7. Well I'm sure sending less people to prison will help reduce our workloads, right!?

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  8. The changes they are making come September are appalling, they're turning the service into a production line.

    Courts give incredibly weak sentences, prison turf them out early then Probation look for any way to get rid of them early so the next one can move down the line.

    Looking to make their sentences only mildly inconvenient, we're making it about the criminals and spitting in the eyes of the victims.

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  9. Caseloads averaging 32? Where do they get these figures from? In 2018 managing a caseload of 35 was acceptable with the NPS. However let's be honest the caseloads are now averaging 40+!

    I was off sick for 3 months no contact from any manager until my SPO returned from mat leave. By this point after more than 10 years in the service I handed in my notice.

    Managers SPO level and above are more focused on targets than staff wellbeing or subjecting them to poor performance reviews rather than reflect on what support can be offered to staff.

    Whilst I did get a payrise making it the top of my band. Was it worth putting MY mental health at risk? Absolutely not! I genuinely am sad I left but no amount of money is will make me return unless there are big changes.

    Sadly the service will continue to hemorrhage more staff and no amount of NQO's will make up for the years of lost experience.

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  10. IPPs discussed in parliament yesterday - over 1,000 remain unreleased after original sentence & hundreds continue to be recalled regularly, but we can thank the noble Baroness Levitt for her compassionate words:

    https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/debate/2026-07-02/lords/lords-chamber/imprisonment-for-public-protection

    Baroness Levitt: "There is a persistent myth that people got IPP sentences for rather trivial offences... I am happy to reassure him that we have now reallocated the IPP prisoners... recall is not used as a punishment for a minor breach of licence... It is a means of protecting victims and the public when the Probation Service assesses that it can no longer manage that offender in the community. Recall is an important and swift public protection measure. Also, HMPPS has strengthened the scrutiny and quality assurance of recall decisions. There is a higher threshold for IPP prisoners in relation to recall. There must be not only a breach of their licence conditions such that there is a concern about the risk that they present but a causal link between that breach and the index offence for which they are serving the sentence in the first place... If they cannot be safely managed in the community and are released, they will be living next door to you—and no responsible Government are going to do that."

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  11. https://www.channel4.com/news/exclusive-probation-staff-already-over-capacity-ahead-of-mass-prisoner-release

    https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-probation-units-working-over-capacity-across-england-and-wales-exclusive-stats-reveal

    'Getafix

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    1. Exclusive: Probation staff already over capacity ahead of mass prisoner release

      Some victims of rape, sexual assault and domestic abuse have received letters warning their abusers may be freed early to ease prison overcrowding – as this programme revealed Wednesday.

      From September, most offenders in England and Wales will spend less time in custody, with some to be released after serving just a third of their sentence.

      But figures exclusively obtained by this programme raise questions about how far the Probation Service can monitor these offenders once they are back in the community.

      Delete
    2. Some probation units in England and Wales have been operating at more than 170 per cent of their capacity in recent years, FactCheck can exclusively reveal.

      And the latest figures, from December 2025, show that the service as a whole is still running at 110 per cent of its capacity, with individual units again seeing even higher workloads.

      Our findings raise questions about how the service will manage as more prisoners are set to be released early under a new law.

      The probation officers’ union says this policy is expected to put further strain on officers who are “already struggling”, and that the union is concerned about what it means for public protection.

      FactCheck lays out the exclusive data below.

      Probation workloads
      Probation officers meet with former prisoners to make sure they are following certain rules, not committing further offences, and in some cases, engaging in rehabilitation programmes.

      New government legislation will see many prisoners released into the community early over the coming year, in order to free up space in the prison system. The government projects that without such reforms, demand for prison places would outstrip supply by 9,500 in 2028 – even after new prisons have been built.

      But Napo, the probation officers’ union, has been warning that its officers are already overwhelmed – and that these new releases will add to their caseloads.

      We’ve obtained data under the Freedom of Information Act which shows for the first time the workload faced by probation officers in every single probation unit in the country over the past five years.

      If a probation unit is operating at 100 per cent capacity, that means the average officer in that unit has a full workload. Anything above 100 per cent means the average officer has more work to do than hours in which to do it.

      For example, if a unit is operating at 120 per cent capacity, that means the average officer in that unit has twelve hours’ worth of work to do for every ten hours they are actually working.

      The worst period
      Our findings reveal that during its worst period in early 2023, nine out of ten units in the country were operating at over 100 per cent capacity.

      At that time, the probation service overall was operating at 122 per cent of its capacity.

      And we’ve identified individual units which were far, far worse than the average.

      Essex North spent many months running at over 150 per cent capacity, peaking at 169 per cent capacity in March 2023.

      Brent hit a peak of 172 per cent in June 2023.

      And Surrey hit a similar high of 171 per cent the previous September.

      And many other units around this period were at over 150 per cent too.

      Probation reset
      In 2024, the Conservative government introduced a policy called “probation reset” in order to reduce workloads.

      The policy said that probation officers no longer had to meet with low risk cases once they were two thirds of the way through their licence period.

      Workloads did fall after this policy was introduced – but they have since begun to creep up again. In our chart below we’ve highlighted the changing average, plus some of our example units, so you can see for yourself.

      Delete
  12. Latest figures
    As of December 2025, the probation service as a whole across England and Wales was again running at 110 per cent capacity.

    And yet again, we can see particular black spots. The newly established Mid Kent unit was at 171 per cent in the latest figures.

    And Oxfordshire was at 161 per cent – though the Ministry of Justice has said this was due to “an isolated incident”.

    The probation service is going to have to cope with even more prisoners as the new legislation comes into effect in the coming months.

    Napo, the probation officer union, told FactCheck: “These changes are significant and will introduce another huge amount of work for our members that are already struggling.

    “We are concerned about public protection because our members are firefighting every day, and that means corners get cut, things get missed, and there isn’t that attention to detail that’s required for really robust public protection.”

    A government spokesperson told FactCheck: “We are strengthening probation and community services, boosting capacity through a record £700 million investment by 2028 and the recruitment of 1,300 extra probation officers. The rollout of the latest technology which will save thousands of days of admin work every year – so probation officers can spend more time on the vital work of cutting reoffending.”

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    1. I wish fact check checked there facts, Probation reset isn't just for Low risk, its for Med and High as well unless MAPPA and a few other exemptions! Anyway, as said before, even with all this recruitment Full time PO numbers are down this year, and whatever time Transcribe saved is taken up with dealing with these shitty Tags. Move us to RED and stop threatening us if we miss pointless targets...nothing will change until we are freed to actually try and help our offenders

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  13. https://www.ier.org.uk/news/prison-front-line-staff-need-action-not-another-review/

    'Getafix

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  14. The graph referred to shows that the England & Wales' service overall "average" has been ABOVE 100% since their quoted figures start in Oct 2021 - and has NEVER been below 100% since.

    Five years' worth (at least) of the service working over-capacity.

    AI Transcribe: "450,000 hours a year shared between 11,132 practitioners means 1 hour a week saved per practitioner."

    Workload of 110% of 150 hours/month = 165 hours

    That's roughly 3.5 hours' a week extra.

    Net effect: On average (per figures supplied by hmpps etc) each probation staff member is working 2.5 hours/week over & above their contracted hours.

    And the best of all this fact-checking & reporting?

    No-one outside the probation-sphere gives a flying fuck.

    govt new Sentencing Act: "An estimated 6,000 prisoners will be released earlier than planned from English and Welsh jails in 10 monthly tranches, starting on 2 September."

    govt: "We are strengthening probation and community services"

    Labour policy: "Recall is an important and swift public protection measure..."

    the general public: "taylor swift just got married... football's coming home... its too hot... when's the new iphone being released?""

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    1. "England victims of ‘disgraceful and unacceptable’ disadvantage which makes ‘mockery’ of World Cup" - talkSPORT

      Looks like football aint coming home after all... the excuses are already being made by the multi-millionaire pundits.

      "We are strengthening probation and community services... Justice Transcribe uses speech recognition to transcribe, summarise, and structure records from probation supervision sessions and case interactions. Impact at scale:
      50% reduction in note-taking time across pilot and early scale sites
      4.7 out of 5 staff rating for usability and effectiveness
      Faster production of structured case records after supervision sessions
      Better continuity through consistent summaries that follow individuals across practitioners
      What began as a pilot across Kent, Surrey, Sussex, and Wales is now being scaled"

      * Surrey hit a high of 171 per cent on WMT
      * The newly established Mid Kent unit was at 171 per cent in the latest figures

      The spinners of spin are spinning your careers, your livelihoods & your health away for the benefit of incompetent fuckwits on salaries, pensions & bonuses you'd kill for.

      While they're taking the piss on your pay review & delaying your hard earned dosh - they're creating new jobs at £100,000 a year + £26,000 annual pension contribution for chums already promised the role.

      And y'all think Justice Transcribe is an indolent innovation. WAKEY WAKEY.

      Delete
  15. "An AI just carried out a cyber attack without any human oversight for the first time" - The Independent

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ai-just-carried-cyber-attack-130824156.html

    "The Sysdig Threat Research Team (TRT) has captured what we assess to be the first documented case of agentic ransomware: a complete extortion operation driven end-to-end by a large language model (LLM)."

    The autonomous operation was also able to adapt its tactics in real-time, operating at a speed that outpaces even the most skilled human operators.

    "The most striking characteristic, however, was the LLM's behaviour," Mr Clark said. "The operation adapted in real time, retrying failed steps within refined parameters. In one sequence, it went from a failed login to a working fix in 31 seconds."

    Sysdig researchers noted that even if the victim paid the ransom, they would not be able to recover the compromised data because the AI agent had already deleted it without backing any of it up.

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    1. https://www.bordercountiesadvertizer.co.uk/news/26245953.judges-outburst-probation-services-potential-ai-help/

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    2. May be of interest and revelent?

      https://www.crim.cam.ac.uk/events/28th-annual-mcwilliams-probation-lecture-artificial-intelligence-probation-opportunities

      'Getafix

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    3. 10:02 it will be interesting to see if the lecture is at all critical of MoJ. Anyone who works for HMPPS will have their hands tied by those who tightly control the narrative of the MoJ press office. They are scared of the truth and in denial of the fact that two Justice Secretaries have failed to get a grip and Timpson completely underestimated the scale of the challenge of fixing the justice system. The fact is that the new tech helps somewhat (not everyone has it yet and it seems there isn’t mad rush to roll it out) but cannot compensate for the fact that there are not enough experienced staff to do the work. It is not recruitment figures that count it is how many are retained and who leave after being trained within three years. Experienced staff leave if they can. If they brought in a voluntary redundancy scheme thousands would take it tomorrow and be much happier for it.

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    4. I'd be fighting half of the office to take it!

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    5. There would be a stampede for the exit and the IT system would crash due to the overload from applications.

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  16. Refreshing to say the least usually recommend every one gets locked up cant be a PQIP

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  17. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy0429yx1k9o

    Speaking exclusively to the BBC ahead of the publication of a major report he co-authored on police leadership, the former Labour home secretary said: "At the moment, the service isn't good enough. At the moment, the morale and motivation of many of those working in the service needs a reset."

    This from the architect of IPPs, a bliar-rite Labour policy for which thousands were imprisoned & held long beyond their tariff dates, pirely because of because of this evangelical fucker's crass attitude to "offenders".

    How can the man be trusted with the school gerbil over the summer holidays, let alone be "speaking exclusively to the BBC ahead of the publication of a major report he co-authored on police leadership"... and then he broke rank:

    "Lord Blunkett told the BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme that the evidence gathered during the review pointed to "a very large number of those at senior level who have been or are under investigation".

    "I think at the moment, there are eight former or serving chief constables who are either under disciplinary action or awaiting the result," he said. "And that's out of 43 forces."

    He added: "All of that leads us to believe that a new ethical reset is required."

    But hmpps, are, of course, beyond reproach - their former chief exec Alpha Romeo, now promoted to be the simple serpent in charge of UKplc, will make sure of that... i.e. so none of her past failings as SRO for Transforming Rehabilitation or any subsequent changes to probation's performance/structure can be exposed as linked to her account of her actions, because she is "practically perfect in every way". Aint that so, Mary Poppins?

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  18. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/submit-a-request-for-a-s47-or-s48-transfer-from-prison-to-hospital

    If you are concerned that anyone on your caseload is imprisoned (sentenced or unsentenced) when their mental health issues are a significant factor, discuss with local mental heath providers & start filling in these forms.

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    1. I wonder what the MoJ think the recall rate will be by Christmas?

      https://channel4news.substack.com/p/revealed-probation-units-working

      'Getafix

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    2. If it's anything like the initial round of early releases, I think our team was sat at around an average of 40% recalled. Similar circumstances this time as well, too many released at once overwhelming the already limited resettlement resources.

      Delete
  19. Although, I stopped trying to connect with LABOUR MP’s via X in April 26 having made very little headway. I did connect with 23 MP;s who I have continued to share any JB updates and also NAPO bulletins. Including, the one that has gone out today and can be accessed via X and also their facebook page.. Sadly, my own MP has shown no interest in Probation although I will also email her today with a link to the Napo Bulletin. Simply, sending my kindest regards, care and concern to all Probation staff as they again grapple with what is being asked of them . Take Care Iangould5

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    1. Sadly Ian, sometimes we just need to let go. Napo as a probation union is ineffective. The last real mouthpiece we had in this blog has closed. Even the coming Bill McWilliams lecture is by an unknown speaking about Ai. This is how far we have separated from the before. I feel all we can do now is have hope in those such as Probation Institute.

      Probation Quarterly Issue 40 published 9th June.

      https://doi.org/10.54006/TSOZ4582

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  20. "outrage from victims' groups over government plans to allow people convicted of serious crimes to leave prison early"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002yl30

    Andrea Coomber KC (Hon.) of Howard League made a good contribution & raised the crisis in probation service provision several times, including highlighting the fact there are 35% fewer staff than ten years ago & considerably fewer experienced staff after grayling's fuck-up... sadly it wasn't of much interest to the presenter who was happy to repeat the govt bullshit about £700million & 1,300 new staff. Seems the justice minister wasn't interested in appearing/contributing. No doubt too busy preening himself as he stands in for the lame duck, desperate to impress Cock'O't'North.

    A victim of violent crime also made invaluable contribution, and she was rightly dismissive of the £700million for probation claim (understandably she wanted that cash used to ensure her attacker was locked up for linger).

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  21. NAO isn't too happy with the MoJs plans, and Serco again?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cze9z81d183o

    'Getafix

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  22. One thing I don’t think we’ve joined up enough is why the current ballot matters.

    It’s easy to see this as “just another pay ballot”, but if you read the accompanying Napo material, it is about far more than pay. It’s about workload, staff safety, protected learning time, a credible workload measurement system and the conditions needed to deliver safe probation practice.

    I worry that some colleagues are understandably looking only at what is in front of them today. Many are exhausted, burnt out and simply trying to get through another week. I’ve been there myself. But this ballot isn’t just about today’s pressures; it’s about what probation will look like in six months, twelve months and beyond.

    We already know significant changes are planned through OFPS. We know more people will be managed in the community. We know experienced staff continue to leave faster than they can realistically be replaced. We know practitioner access to the WMT is due to be removed unless that decision changes. We know training, supervision and CPD are increasingly squeezed by workload.

    Taken individually, each of those issues is concerning. Taken together, they risk creating a system where practitioners are expected to absorb ever more work with ever fewer protections.

    This is why I think the ballot matters. Whether people ultimately vote yes or no is a personal decision, but I would urge everyone to read the accompanying material and vote. Not voting doesn’t preserve the status quo—it simply leaves others to decide what happens next.

    If we genuinely believe workloads are affecting our wellbeing, our ability to develop professionally and, ultimately, public protection, then this is one of the few opportunities we have to collectively say that enough is enough before the next wave of changes arrives.

    By September, many of those changes will already be in motion. It is much harder to rebuild safeguards once they have been dismantled than it is to defend them while they still exist.

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