Secondly, I agree with the Public Accounts Committee, a well-run probation service is a must-have. That much is obvious. What isn’t obvious is how anyone thinks a service on its knees can be stabilised with a measly 4% pay offer. If we’re serious about building something that actually works, then 20% is a starting point, not some wild, irresponsible demand. You don’t rescue a collapsing system with loose change, glossy adverts and motivational quotes.
No one is surprised that HMPPS’s latest shiny programme, Our Future Probation Service, is unlikely to be sufficient. A rebrand is not reform. It’s the same system, the same pressures, the same culture of JFDI and abuse just wrapped in nicer language. And the delusions of AI and increased tagging as a solution? That’s technological wishful thinking dressed up as policy.
Probation services in England and Wales can be brought back from the brink, the PAC report alludes to this, but only if leaders are willing to confront the culture and problems that’s helped drive it there. A culture built on the abuse of goodwill, routine gaslighting of staff, relentless emotional strain, and the normalisation of trauma is not a foundation. You can’t physically, financially and emotionally drain a workforce, while under resourcing the service itself, and then act shocked when the system fails.
Thirdly, can we stop with the emotional manipulation? Stop the false advertising calling frontline staff and work “extraordinary”. Stop brainwashing staff into thinking “we don’t do this job for the money”.
I do come to work to be paid. I’m not a “hero” and my work is not “extraordinary”. That’s not cynical, that’s reality. If the Chief Probation Officer and the layers of Regional Directors, Heads of Operations and Heads of PDUs truly come to work purely for the love of the job, they’re welcome to wear a cape and donate their salaries to the people on the frontline actually holding the risk, the caseloads, and the consequences when things go wrong.
Lastly, frontline practitioners already know the solutions to the probation crisis. The committees have heard us. The inspectors have heard us. The inquiries have heard us. The evidence exists. The voices are there. The only thing missing is the will of the leaders to act.
Probation Officer
--oo00oo--
A new report from the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) warns that the Probation Service in England and Wales is being placed under significant strain, seriously impeding its ability to protect the public and reduce reoffending rates.
Read the report
Read the report (PDF)
Inquiry: Efficiency and resilience of the Probation Service
Public Accounts Committee
In 2024-25, HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) spent £1.34bn on the Probation Service. The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) estimates that the economic and social cost of reoffending across adult offenders is around £20.9bn a year.
The number of prisoners recalled to prison is at an all-time high. At the end of March 2025, the recall prison population was 13,583, accounting for 15% of the prison population, a 49% increase since June 2021.
Since the Probation Service was brought under full public control in 2021, its performance has deteriorated, along with an overall rise in reoffending rates. Last year, the service met just seven of its 27 performance targets. Three years earlier it was meeting half of its targets.
HMPPS’s’ new programme, Our Future Probation Service, was introduced in an effort to combat this declining performance. However, the PAC warn that this is unlikely to be sufficient.
The MoJ does not have a strong history of implementing digital change programmes well, and crucially they have yet to make decisions on changes they plan to make to the level of supervision some offenders receive.
Given the risk these decisions could pose to the public, the PAC is calling for the MoJ and HMPPS to set clear thresholds for the level of risk they are willing to accept, to help monitor operational and public protection risks.
Evidence to the inquiry showed that people classed as low-risk often require support to prevent them reoffending. HMPPS’ planned changes to probation will likely reduce supervision for these lower-risk offenders, while involving a large increase in electronic monitoring.
Noting serious performance issues with the electronic monitoring service, including delays by Serco in fitting tags, the PAC is seeking more information on how the company is performing from government, as well as what role third sector and private sector organisations will play in probation to make up for this reduction in supervision.
The vacancy rate for probation officers increased from 14% in 2021 to 21% in 2025. Probation officers are estimated to have been working on average at 118% capacity for several years, though recent findings suggest this figure is likely much higher. The inquiry heard evidence that the Probation Service's culture is built on ‘emotional strain' and 'trauma’.
The PAC is sceptical that HMPPS has a real understanding of how many staff it needs to sufficiently improve performance. The report calls for HMPPS to set out when and how it expects to be able to provide clarity to staff on when their workloads will reduce to acceptable levels.
The PAC was concerned to learn that when evaluating the risk of harm presented by offenders, practitioners only adequately assessed 28% of cases in 2024, compared to 60% of cases in 2018-19. This report calls for the MoJ to set out a clear timeline for when it expects its performance against key metrics to improve.
Read the report (PDF)
Inquiry: Efficiency and resilience of the Probation Service
Public Accounts Committee
In 2024-25, HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) spent £1.34bn on the Probation Service. The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) estimates that the economic and social cost of reoffending across adult offenders is around £20.9bn a year.
The number of prisoners recalled to prison is at an all-time high. At the end of March 2025, the recall prison population was 13,583, accounting for 15% of the prison population, a 49% increase since June 2021.
Since the Probation Service was brought under full public control in 2021, its performance has deteriorated, along with an overall rise in reoffending rates. Last year, the service met just seven of its 27 performance targets. Three years earlier it was meeting half of its targets.
HMPPS’s’ new programme, Our Future Probation Service, was introduced in an effort to combat this declining performance. However, the PAC warn that this is unlikely to be sufficient.
The MoJ does not have a strong history of implementing digital change programmes well, and crucially they have yet to make decisions on changes they plan to make to the level of supervision some offenders receive.
Given the risk these decisions could pose to the public, the PAC is calling for the MoJ and HMPPS to set clear thresholds for the level of risk they are willing to accept, to help monitor operational and public protection risks.
Evidence to the inquiry showed that people classed as low-risk often require support to prevent them reoffending. HMPPS’ planned changes to probation will likely reduce supervision for these lower-risk offenders, while involving a large increase in electronic monitoring.
Noting serious performance issues with the electronic monitoring service, including delays by Serco in fitting tags, the PAC is seeking more information on how the company is performing from government, as well as what role third sector and private sector organisations will play in probation to make up for this reduction in supervision.
The vacancy rate for probation officers increased from 14% in 2021 to 21% in 2025. Probation officers are estimated to have been working on average at 118% capacity for several years, though recent findings suggest this figure is likely much higher. The inquiry heard evidence that the Probation Service's culture is built on ‘emotional strain' and 'trauma’.
The PAC is sceptical that HMPPS has a real understanding of how many staff it needs to sufficiently improve performance. The report calls for HMPPS to set out when and how it expects to be able to provide clarity to staff on when their workloads will reduce to acceptable levels.
The PAC was concerned to learn that when evaluating the risk of harm presented by offenders, practitioners only adequately assessed 28% of cases in 2024, compared to 60% of cases in 2018-19. This report calls for the MoJ to set out a clear timeline for when it expects its performance against key metrics to improve.
Chair comment
Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, Chair of the Public Accounts Committee, said:
“The probation service in England and Wales is failing. The endpoint of this failure is demonstrated by our report, which shows the number of prisoners recalled to prison is at an all-time high.
"It was deeply alarming to hear of probation staff working under immense pressure in a seemingly toxic environment, in a culture built on emotional strain and trauma. This not only raises concerns about the toll the overall system is taking on their mental health but the impact it is having on their ability to perform their duties. The public’s safety relies on them doing so.
“Unfortunately, the landscape for probation is not going to become more forgiving for a service which has slipped into decline in recent years, as plans to free up capacity, including with early release schemes, in other parts of the crisis-ridden justice system are likely to increase demand.
"Well-run probation is a must-have, helping those who have served their time find their place back in society. HMPPS accepts that the current picture is unsustainable, but its own planned changes could cause further disruption and place more pressure on overstretched staff. The probation service is already teetering on the brink. Government’s immediate goal must be to avoid making matters worse.”
This is exactly why voting matters.
ReplyDeleteYou can’t say probation is essential to public safety while paying it less than comparable roles and expecting people to stay out of goodwill.
Goodwill ran out years ago.
If we want anything to change, this is the moment to push back - reject poor offers and stop accepting “be grateful” as a strategy.
Absolutely this.
ReplyDeleteThe “wear a cape and donate your salary” line nails it.
This constant line about vocation and “extraordinary people” isn’t inspiration. It’s manipulation. It’s how they try to shame staff into accepting poor pay and worse conditions.
Let’s be honest. I don’t come to work for love. I also come to work to be paid.
And if senior leaders genuinely believe this is a calling not a job, they’re welcome to lead by example and hand their six-figure salaries back.
The reality is the job most of us joined doesn’t even exist anymore. It used to be relationships, judgement, time to actually work with people. Now it’s templates, targets, recalls, audits, defensive recording and constant risk transfer. Less professional skill, more bureaucracy. More blame, less trust.
Then they act surprised that people are leaving.
The Public Accounts Committee has basically said the quiet part out loud.
Seven out of 27 targets met.
Vacancy rates over 20 percent.
Staff working way beyond capacity.
Risk assessments adequate in barely a quarter of cases.
A culture described as emotional strain and trauma.
That isn’t a healthy service. That’s a system already failing.
And the solution? AI pilots, tagging contracts and a 4 percent pay offer.
You don’t fix collapse with slogans and software. You fix it by keeping experienced staff. And you keep experienced staff by paying them properly.
Would I choose this career now, knowing what it’s become? Honestly, no.
That alone tells you everything.
Goodwill isn’t a workforce strategy. It’s just something they mine until nothing’s left.
When the Public Accounts Committee says probation is “on the brink of collapse”, we’re clearly meant to panic.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, I’m past panic.
What we have now isn’t a service worth preserving. It’s a hollowed-out shell being kept alive by exhausted staff and unpaid goodwill.
That isn’t resilience. It’s denial.
Look at the reality behind the spin.
Less than half of cases meeting the standard to keep people safe.
Staffing gaps of 20 to 30 %.
Officers permanently over capacity.
Experience walking out the door.
Trainees handed complex risk work.
Reset and Impact cutting supervision to the bone.
Recalls at record highs.
Pay stuck at the bottom of the justice system.
And we’re told this is “investment” and “transformation”.
It’s not transformation. It’s rationing.
When you can’t afford enough staff, you don’t fix the service. You quietly shrink it.
Reduce contact.
Script supervision.
Automate conversations.
Tag more people.
Move people through faster.
Hope nothing explodes.
If it does, blame the practitioner.
£700 million gets announced with great fanfare, but almost none of it lands where it actually matters, which is retaining experienced staff with time to use their judgement.
Instead we get tech, tagging and AI pilots. Because software doesn’t question decisions. Practitioners do. So practitioners are the bit they underfund.
Then comes the insult.
After a decade where pay rose barely 7 to 10 % while living costs rose more than 80% after freezes, crumbs and “efficiency savings”, after watching police, prisons and other departments land proper settlements, we’re told 4 % is “beyond remit” and we should feel grateful.
Grateful for a real-terms pay cut.
Grateful for burnout.
Grateful for watching a profession dismantled in slow motion.
And we’re still fed the same tired line that we don’t do this job for the money.
Funny how that message is only ever aimed at frontline staff. Nobody says it to senior leaders on six-figure salaries. If this is really a calling, they can take the pay cut first.
The rest of us come to work to be paid. That’s not greed. That’s adulthood.
Calling us extraordinary while underpaying us is just emotional blackmail with better branding.
What’s happened isn’t accidental.
Experience creates confidence.
Confidence creates challenge.
Challenge creates friction.
So the system redesigns itself around people who haven’t yet built the authority to push back.
Churn is cheaper.
Templates are safer.
Compliance is easier to manage than judgement.
A workforce of seasoned practitioners is hard to control.
A workforce of churn is easy.
So when the PAC says the service is on the brink of collapse, maybe the uncomfortable truth is this.
Collapse might be the only thing that forces real change.
Because what we have now isn’t a profession. It’s a production line held together by exhaustion and guilt.
And if the only way this gets fixed is for the system to finally break in public, then maybe breaking is exactly what needs to happen.
When people say probation is “on the brink of collapse”, this is what they mean.
ReplyDeleteIf you stick to the script, hit the targets and feed the systems, you’re “performing”.
If you slow down to actually work with someone properly, you’re told you’re falling behind.
You don’t get recognised for building relationships. You don’t get rewarded for using judgement. You don’t get time to think.
It’s speed now. Throughput.
Get them in, front-load, tick the boxes, duplicate the recording, satisfy systems, move them on, start again.
That isn’t supervision. It’s processing.
It wasn’t perfect years ago, but it was professional. You had time to understand the person in front of you, time to plan properly, time to talk things through with colleagues, time to learn from each other. Courts respected what you said because it came from experience, not a template.
Now most of the day is screens, drop-downs, audits and covering yourself.
Justice Transcribe. Reset. Impact. Scripts. Reduced contact.
Call it “innovation” if you like, it’s just rationing dressed up as progress.
And then they wonder why standards are falling and recalls are rising.
You can’t strip out relationships, devalue experience, overload staff and still expect public protection to work. Probation was built on human judgement. Take that away and all you’re left with is admin and enforcement.
And it’s not just experienced staff. Some Band 2 colleagues will barely clear minimum wage even after this “uplift" . The people who keep offices running, support cases and hold the whole system together are being paid supermarket wages for criminal justice work. You can’t build a professional public protection service on minimum wage foundations.
And after all of that, the message on pay is still 4%.
Pay tells you exactly what you’re worth.
One thing we don’t talk about enough is how this is enforced.
DeleteIf you don’t stick to the script and the timings, it isn’t framed as professional judgement it’s framed as underperformance. Then come the “capability” conversations, action plans and formal processes.
So people stop thinking and start complying. Not because it’s better practice, but because it’s safer for their job. That’s how you kill professionalism. You don’t sack it. You performance-manage it out of existence.
This isn't a service being rebuilt. It’s a workforce being managed into submission.
Everything that’s wrong with the service in a nutshell !,
DeleteAdding to what anon 12:02 correctly articulates, specifically the part about "sticking to the script" and how anything contrary to that's framed as staff failure. That's standard managerial deflection, where, rather than address structural issues, individual workers get blamed and made to believe they're at fault, with managers sometimes promoting things like 'cbt' talk therapy for burn out staff. Not bad in and of itself, but a definite way to avoid accountability;
DeleteStaff; we're tired of being exploited and taking the brunt of structural failures.
Managers: hmmm, are you practising self care ?
Staff: we don't have time for that, too bogged down in mountains of work and fearful about being scolded for non compliance.
Managers: we hear you. You can self refer to iapt, where a trained psychologist will guide you through some McMindfulnessTM exercises that will help blame yourself (cough cough) we mean regain confidence.
As an aside, nothing wrong with meditation.
https://www.unison.org.uk/news/article/2026/02/unison-calls-for-probation-service-to-be-removed-from-civil-service-control/
ReplyDelete'Getafix
Well spotted 'Getafix!
DeleteUNISON has renewed its calls for the probation service to be removed form civil service control after a new report from the Public Accounts Committee warns that the probation service in England and Wales is being placed under “significant strain, seriously impeding its ability to protect the public and reduce reoffending rates.”
UNISON national officer for probation Ben Priestly said,”we are campaigning for probation to be removed from civil service control and re-localised under local democratic control with local management again.
“Successive independent reports in the last 12 months by His Majesty’s Inspectorate of Probation, the National Audit Office and now the Public Accounts Committee lay bare the failings of the probation service under civil service control.
“It was the Tories who first centralised control of probation under the Ministry of Justice in 2014.
“Like all the other Tory probation reforms, centralisation has been an abject failure. The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has had 12 years to get to grips with running probation and instead of improving over this time, probation has just got worse.”
Probation was reunified in 2021 after the collapse of Tory privatisation.
The Public Accounts Committee found that:
Since 2021 the Probation Service has failed to meet most of its performance targets
Neither the MoJ nor His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) know how probation performance affects performance such as rates of reoffending
Longstanding staff shortages have left probation staff with excessive and unmanageable workloads
The MoJ and HMPPS rescue plan ‘Our Future Probation Service’ risks destabilising the workforce and may not free up capacity to improve performance
Resourcing for rehabilitative services is in doubt.
Ben added: “Labour promised to review the governance of probation in its 2024 manifesto. UNISON calls on the government to make good on this promise without further delay.”
I can’t see how anyone could argue the current model works.
ReplyDeleteSince centralisation everything feels heavier and thinner at the same time. More forms, more systems, more oversight but fewer staff, less time and less experience. The actual craft of the job has been squeezed out.
It doesn’t feel like a profession anymore. It feels like processing.
You can’t keep running a service like that and expect people to stay, or standards to hold. And when the answer to all of it is still a 4% pay offer, it’s hard not to conclude that this is exactly what they think probation is worth.
Im glad the Public Accounts Committee and Unison have spoke so strongly/forcibly on your behalf and we are aware HMIP has read the letter ‘Dear Martin’ posted last year has also made known his views/feelings. Although, I genuinely don't know if its OK to express support and encouragement for what is being said/shared each day. As everyone has been saying , it’s all been said time and time again and maybe it is now time for Probation to stand up/speak even louder for itself.
ReplyDeleteIts easy for me to say that because now retired it doesn't affect me but I certainly empathise with all the anger, abuse, sadness/disappointment and still for me a much loved/cherished Vocation of over 30 years.
Unfortunately my own X account has been hacked which Ive been using to raise your profile and my care and concern for ALL its staff and whilst Im always greatly humbled by all your commentaries and contributions Im aware that I can share solidarity and support . Thanks to getafix and their remarkable talent of finding pertinent articles. I do so hope you are all able to sustain this collective activism. I must admit I didnt understand why Unision had urged its members to vote for strike action, Yet, Napo are writing to its members to ask whether they should call for a strike ballot. Maybe Ive misunderstood that. I distinctly recall the distress and disappointment of you all back in July/August I believe 42%.I do so hope/pray even that you will find the resolve/momentum together and send the first of many clear messages the this Government. I shall certainly be writing to my MP again when the result is known.
Wishing you all a good evening
Ian Gould
DeleteVery sorry I have misread this Napo have asked you to vote NO Ian Gould.
DeleteI am band 2 and at the top of my band. No sooner do we train someone up they are gone. 4% is nowhere near enough, my council bill is rising by 4.8% and that is just one bill the rest will no doubt go up they always do. So it's a No from me. Apparently its a good offer, I suppose on the higher salaries it would be okay but on a salary that is going to be less than living wage in April its nothing at all.
ReplyDeleteMust be a few red faces at GMB / Scoop right now. Imagine a union that can't express an opinion on the 4% pay offer with the Public Accounts Committee evaluation of the last few years now there for all to see. What in God's name did GMB think was going on in Probation when they decided, only last week, to sit so meekly on that fence?
ReplyDeleteI might not very popular after this comment.
ReplyDeleteBand 1,2 3, 4, what does that matter? Its rungs on the ladder to a place (mangement) that everyone complains about on here
Pay? I (personally)wouldn't pay probation for the current model. It causes harm. It does no good.
Pay is not what should be argued about, though you should be paid fairly for an honest days work, and for the hours you do
But! If its always going to be about an hourly rate, then you can't recover your social status and value to the criminal justice system.
Establish your value, pay will follow.
Removal from Civil Service control is a first step. Removal form the prison service e is the next step. They should be done in conjunction, but one step at a time.
Above is mine.
Delete'Getafix
Getafix your solutions regarding civil service and Prisons are what everyone on here has been calling for, for years and no one in Probation has any clout to secure that and quite frankly none of Regional Heads and upwards will make a case for it as they'd be biting the hand that feeds them. Your description of Bands is plain wrong, 99% of staff have no desire to move to 'management', unfortunately the 1% that do are either self-serving idiots or are just looking to escape case management. I've worked in the service for 20 plus years and have learnt to roll with the changes, pay has always been shit, I knew that from day 1, but I'd quite like my pay to have at least have kept up with inflation over the years and to have kept my professional discretion and ability to help people stay out of the criminal justice system without having to fill out 10 Spreadsheets, numerous forms and be a dogs body to Prisons, social services, Police, housing, etc.
DeleteI warned colleagues that Labour weren't friends of Probation, they like controlling people too much and see 'little' people as there to be managed. I don't think that the PO grade will be around much longer, why send people on expensive degree courses once everything is digitalised and the journey just becomes a data collecting process, I'm glad I'm in my final few years and can hopefully use the skills I've developed in the voluntary sector.
I get the point you’re trying to make about status and value Getafix, but this sets up a false choice.
DeletePay and professional value aren’t separate issues. They’re linked. When a workforce is paid poorly, it signals exactly how much its judgement, risk-holding and responsibility are valued. That then feeds straight into how the role is designed, resourced and controlled.
You don’t “establish value” in a vacuum while people are burning out, leaving, or barely covering living costs. A service on its knees doesn’t get listened to, it gets managed.
Removing probation from civil service and prison control absolutely matters. But asking staff to park pay while that slow political fight plays out just means asking them to subsidise failure with their own lives.
@anon 19:16 This hits closer to reality.
DeleteMost staff aren’t chasing management. They’re trying to survive frontline work without losing their health or their integrity. Bands aren’t “rungs to management”, they’re pay recognition for responsibility, experience and skill.
What’s been lost isn’t ambition, it’s discretion. The ability to work with people properly without being buried under admin, performance threats and prison-led demands.
Pay has always been an issue, yes, but the difference now is that the job has become harder, riskier and more constrained while falling further behind inflation. That combination is what’s broken the deal. And you’re right: if everything is being redesigned to remove judgement and replace it with data collection, then the PO role as we knew it is already being quietly phased out.
"Why send people on expensive degree courses" asks anon 19:16. Isn't that something from the Blair/Brown years ? University became big business as there suddenly seemed to be degrees for everything. Not bad in itself, but is it not detrimental when education becomes the preserve of elites, and is it not a bit off that people have to pay in order to be considered to maybe get more money from being exploited ?
DeleteThe only way probation would change would be to sack 90% of staff who aren’t social work qualified
ReplyDeleteI don’t think the issue is who should be sacked or what badge people qualify under. The deeper point is that the job itself has been redesigned in a way that no longer rewards depth, judgement or longevity.
DeleteThe current model actively selects for people who are compliant, adaptable to scripts and comfortable working to process. That’s not a criticism of individuals, it’s a rational response to how the role is now structured. If professional judgement is constrained, risk is standardised and autonomy is treated as a liability, then experience stops being an advantage.
It also explains the churn. People qualify, do a short period on the frontline, then either move quickly into management or use the qualification as a springboard into other professions where skills are better recognised and better paid. Again, that’s not moral failure, it’s common sense.
What gets lost is continuity, confidence and professional memory. The service becomes dependent on trainees and fast-tracked managers because the system no longer retains people who want to practise the job as a profession.
So it’s not about social work versus non-social work, or old guard versus new. It’s about a model that quietly favours turnover over experience — because turnover is easier to control.
Yes I think we get the picture Getafix. You think Probation under the current model isn't worth paying for. Goodness knows you've re-hashed the phrase often enough over the past month. There can't be much doubt from the accounts in this blog, years of HMIP fails, and now the PAC report, that it's not an effective service. On that basis money is being wasted yes. But at the moment there's a particular focus on pay and a small window for staff to air concerns, pull together, and take action to address this very very longrunning issue. When those of us who actually go to work in this nightmare can pay the bills and regain some quality of life we can then start talking about trying to reset direction. And they'll be lots more time for that surely.
ReplyDeleteGetagrip
This is exactly the point @anon 18:42
DeleteThere is a bigger structural argument about governance, prisons, civil service control and many of us agree with it. But right now, staff are being asked to swallow another real-terms cut while workloads and risk climb.
If people can’t pay the bills, can’t recover, can’t see a future, there won’t be a workforce left to “reset direction” later.
Pay isn’t the whole battle, but it’s the one that’s live, tangible and urgent. Securing dignity at work is a prerequisite for fixing anything else.