******
I did, it really angered me! The tone was so awful, as if we’re going to read that and then realise we’ve all been looking at it all wrong. All hail the chief PO for busting those myths and essentially calling us all liars and over-reactors. And you wonder why there’s a retention problem…
I did, it really angered me! The tone was so awful, as if we’re going to read that and then realise we’ve all been looking at it all wrong. All hail the chief PO for busting those myths and essentially calling us all liars and over-reactors. And you wonder why there’s a retention problem…
******
I’ve read the Chief Probation Officer’s “myth busters” piece carefully. It sets out three main corrections and provides percentage tables to show pay growth over time. So let’s respond clearly and factually.
Myth 1: CBF is separate from the pay award
It’s correct that progression (CBF) sits within Civil Service Remit Guidance and forms part of the annual pay framework. But progression is movement within a pay band. It is not a cost-of-living increase. It does not raise the value of the band itself. It simply moves someone closer to the ceiling that already exists. Once staff reach the top of their band, progression ends. From that point on, only the headline uplift matters. So while CBF may technically sit inside the “award”, it does not function as restoration for experienced staff already at band maximum. That distinction is not a myth. It’s mechanics.
Myth 2: Only 1% between 2018 and 2021
The article states that between 2018 and 2024 average increases were 24.4% at band minimums and 10.8% at band maximums. Minimums rose faster to support recruitment. Maximums rose more slowly. That means newer entrants benefited proportionally more than long-serving staff at the top of bands. During the same period, cumulative inflation — especially post-2020 — significantly reduced real-terms value. Nominal increases without inflation context do not equal restored purchasing power.
Myth 3: Only 11% since 2010
The table shows band maximum increases since 2010. For Band 4, that’s 17.56% (22.26% including the proposed 2025 uplift). Spread across roughly 14–15 years, that averages around 1–1.5% per year. Over that same period, inflation has substantially exceeded that figure. The question staff are asking is not whether pay bands have moved at all. It’s whether pay has kept pace with inflation, expanding workload, heightened risk, professional registration requirements and responsibility creep. Those are different questions.
The 2025–26 offer remains:
• 4% uplift to pay points
• 4% uplift to allowances
• Progression where eligible
I’ve read the Chief Probation Officer’s “myth busters” piece carefully. It sets out three main corrections and provides percentage tables to show pay growth over time. So let’s respond clearly and factually.
Myth 1: CBF is separate from the pay award
It’s correct that progression (CBF) sits within Civil Service Remit Guidance and forms part of the annual pay framework. But progression is movement within a pay band. It is not a cost-of-living increase. It does not raise the value of the band itself. It simply moves someone closer to the ceiling that already exists. Once staff reach the top of their band, progression ends. From that point on, only the headline uplift matters. So while CBF may technically sit inside the “award”, it does not function as restoration for experienced staff already at band maximum. That distinction is not a myth. It’s mechanics.
Myth 2: Only 1% between 2018 and 2021
The article states that between 2018 and 2024 average increases were 24.4% at band minimums and 10.8% at band maximums. Minimums rose faster to support recruitment. Maximums rose more slowly. That means newer entrants benefited proportionally more than long-serving staff at the top of bands. During the same period, cumulative inflation — especially post-2020 — significantly reduced real-terms value. Nominal increases without inflation context do not equal restored purchasing power.
Myth 3: Only 11% since 2010
The table shows band maximum increases since 2010. For Band 4, that’s 17.56% (22.26% including the proposed 2025 uplift). Spread across roughly 14–15 years, that averages around 1–1.5% per year. Over that same period, inflation has substantially exceeded that figure. The question staff are asking is not whether pay bands have moved at all. It’s whether pay has kept pace with inflation, expanding workload, heightened risk, professional registration requirements and responsibility creep. Those are different questions.
The 2025–26 offer remains:
• 4% uplift to pay points
• 4% uplift to allowances
• Progression where eligible
No one is disputing the arithmetic. What staff are disputing is the framing. Because when real-terms pay erosion is reframed as “misunderstanding”, it feels less like myth-busting and more like minimising. You can call it clarification. But when experienced practitioners calculate what their pay buys now compared to ten or fifteen years ago, the gap is not imaginary. It’s visible. And no table changes that.
******
We are not stupid. We do not need “myth busters” to explain percentages to us. We can divide 22% by 15 years. We can compare it to inflation. We can look at our rent, mortgages, fuel bills, childcare and food costs and do the maths without supervision thanks! The issue is not misunderstanding. The issue is erosion.
Calling it a “myth” when staff point out that 1–1.5% a year over a decade and a half is nowhere near real-terms restoration feels profoundly insulting. It suggests the problem is that we haven’t grasped the figures properly, rather than the figures being inadequate. Progression is not a pay rise for experienced staff at the top of bands. It is internal movement within a ceiling that itself has barely moved. Recruitment minimums rising faster than maximums doesn’t disprove erosion. It highlights it. And presenting nominal percentage tables without inflation context is technically correct but economically hollow. We are being told, essentially: “Look at the numbers. You’re doing better than you think.”
Eh, No!
We are looking at the numbers.
And we are looking at our bank accounts.
And we are looking at workloads that have intensified year on year.
And we are looking at risk that has escalated.
And we are looking at professional expectations that have increased.
And we are looking at colleagues leaving.
The anger isn’t because we can’t do maths. It’s because we can! When a workforce under sustained strain is told their concerns are “misunderstandings,” it doesn’t feel explanatory. It feels incredibly dismissive! And that is what has landed so badly. This isn’t about confusion. It’s about value. If leadership wants trust, start by acknowledging real-terms loss without reframing it as myth. We don’t need correcting. We need recognising. There's a difference.
We are not stupid. We do not need “myth busters” to explain percentages to us. We can divide 22% by 15 years. We can compare it to inflation. We can look at our rent, mortgages, fuel bills, childcare and food costs and do the maths without supervision thanks! The issue is not misunderstanding. The issue is erosion.
Calling it a “myth” when staff point out that 1–1.5% a year over a decade and a half is nowhere near real-terms restoration feels profoundly insulting. It suggests the problem is that we haven’t grasped the figures properly, rather than the figures being inadequate. Progression is not a pay rise for experienced staff at the top of bands. It is internal movement within a ceiling that itself has barely moved. Recruitment minimums rising faster than maximums doesn’t disprove erosion. It highlights it. And presenting nominal percentage tables without inflation context is technically correct but economically hollow. We are being told, essentially: “Look at the numbers. You’re doing better than you think.”
Eh, No!
We are looking at the numbers.
And we are looking at our bank accounts.
And we are looking at workloads that have intensified year on year.
And we are looking at risk that has escalated.
And we are looking at professional expectations that have increased.
And we are looking at colleagues leaving.
The anger isn’t because we can’t do maths. It’s because we can! When a workforce under sustained strain is told their concerns are “misunderstandings,” it doesn’t feel explanatory. It feels incredibly dismissive! And that is what has landed so badly. This isn’t about confusion. It’s about value. If leadership wants trust, start by acknowledging real-terms loss without reframing it as myth. We don’t need correcting. We need recognising. There's a difference.
--oo00oo--
What does AI say?
Myth 1: "Probation officers are well-paid for their work."
Reality: Pay has fallen significantly in real terms.
While starting salaries for qualified probation officers rose to £35,130 (plus London weighting) by 2024/25, unions argue this does not compensate for over a decade of wage stagnation. Data indicates that probation staff have faced a real-terms pay decrease of roughly 22% compared to similar professions over the past decade, with some estimates suggesting a 60% real-terms cut since 2010.
Myth 2: "The 2024/25 pay rises resolved the pay crisis."
Reality: The rises barely kept up with inflation, and negotiations for 2025 were delayed.
While a 2024 deal brought a 6.4% increase for some and brought forward pay dates, it followed years of suppressed wages. As of late 2025, unions were still in dispute, with reports of "relentless" workload pressures and no immediate 2025 pay offer, leading to threats of industrial action.
Myth 3: "Probation officers are paid equivalent to police/prison officers."
Reality: Probation staff have consistently fallen behind other justice sectors.
Comparative data shows that probation staff have received lower, or joint-lowest, pay awards compared to police staff and prison officers since 2010. As of 2024, probation pay lagged behind other public sector roles (Police Staff 20%, Health 16%, Local Government 18.4% vs. Probation 9.9% increase).
Myth 4: "The high caseloads are temporary, justifying the pay rate."
Reality: Unmanageable workloads are now considered systemic.
The service is under severe pressure, often described as "buckling" or in crisis, with high turnover, severe staff shortages (estimated at 3,150), and unsustainable caseloads. Staff describe pay as "atrocious" for the high-risk, 24/7 nature of the work.
Myth 5: "The service is now properly funded after reunification."
Reality: Despite returning to public control, funding remains a key issue.
Although the 2021 unification was generally welcomed, reports from 2025 show that the service is "under-funded, under-staffed, and overworked". The reliance on early release schemes (SDS40) has exacerbated workload issues without corresponding pay increases for the increased risk.
Disclaimer: Pay data is based on 2024-2025 union negotiations and Ministry of Justice figures. The situation regarding 2025/26 pay is subject to ongoing negotiations.
In other news. Seen on Twitter by Krishnan Guru-Murthy:-
ReplyDelete"On C4 News : Extraordinary interview tonight with Simon McDonald - former Permanent Secretary at the Foreign Office - who is trying to warn No 10 about the widely reported plans to replace Chris Wormald as Cabinet Secretary with Antonia Romeo without a new appointment process. He says ditching Wormald is “extraordinary” and he wants to talk to them about the Foreign Office investigation into allegations against Antonia Romeo in 2017 which the Cabinet Office said was investigated and dismissed without a case to answer. “Due diligence has some way to go” says Lord McDonald who says there must be a full process before any appointment. He says he’s been trying to speak to No 10 but nobody is calling him back!"