Given the continuing news coming out regarding wrongful prison releases, it's probably a good idea to publish the following Press Release from the Prison Governors Association:-
Releases in Error (RiEs) are neither rare nor hidden
As with our statement regarding HMP Chelmsford on 27 October 2025, today’s message is not about the details of this individual case. It is a renewed call to focus attention on the wider and worsening conditions across our prison estate. We will not be making comments on the specifics in this case, or that at Chelmsford.
Releases in Errors are openly reported by the Government in the HMPPS Annual Digest — the most recent edition is available here HMPPS Annual Digest 2024 to 2025 - GOV.UK. They are not new; they have occurred under every government’s watch and have occurred under every iteration of HMPPS.
Most practitioners, informed commentators, and impartial experts recognise this. They understand the inherent complexity of the case management process, a system with multiple points of failure, limited automation, and a heavy reliance on human intervention. These processes span multiple parts of the criminal justice system, not just within prisons. The current case management model is both complex and under-resourced. These conditions make errors not just possible, but predictable.
The prison system, like the wider criminal justice system, is under unprecedented and sustained pressure. This is not pressure felt in isolation — prisons are interconnected. While some establishments may be coping better than others, the strain is systemic. Decisions made to stabilise one prison — such as reducing capacity or increasing staffing — often have unintended, negative consequences elsewhere. Today, it feels as though every move to ease pressure in one part of the system simply shifts the burden to another. Most interventions over recent years to manage capacity has seen increase pressure on case management systems.
Despite a recent reduction in the overall prison population, overcrowding remains acute. Around 10,000 people are still held in overcrowded conditions. Crucially, the available space is not in reception prisons like Chelmsford or Wandsworth, which are among the most overcrowded and experience the highest levels of prisoner movement. According to the Howard League for Penal Reform, HMP Wandsworth is operating at 167% of its safe capacity, Chelmsford is at 133% of its safe capacity. The Howard League | Prisons
Between January and March 2025, 13,296 people were released from prison sentences. In the same period, there were 23,154 prisoner transfers — excluding court movements. By a crude measure, it would be likely to see in one year over 52,000 sentenced people released from prison and 92,000 transferred between prisons.
These figures reflect a system running hot, and under constant strain. Offender management statistics quarterly: January to March 2025 - GOV.UK
The scale of Releases in Error (RiEs) is deeply concerning. In the last full reporting year, 262 prisoners were released in error, averaging around 65 incidents per quarter. These errors include individuals released either too early or too late from their sentence, both scenarios carry serious consequences and undermine public confidence. HMPPS Annual Digest 2024 to 2025 - GOV.UK
Currently, around 0.5% of prisoners are not released on the correct date. While that may appear to be a small percentage, in a system managing tens of thousands of releases and transfers each quarter, it does represent a significant operational failure. The conditions required to reduce this figure to zero simply do not exist.
Achieving a zero-error outcome would demand substantial investment in staff training, modern IT infrastructure, and recruitment, all within a system already stretched by competing priorities. Successive governments have accepted this level of risk for decades. In that context, it feels disingenuous to see politicians attempt to extract political gain from a prison system in crisis.
Achieving a zero-error outcome would demand substantial investment in staff training, modern IT infrastructure, and recruitment, all within a system already stretched by competing priorities. Successive governments have accepted this level of risk for decades. In that context, it feels disingenuous to see politicians attempt to extract political gain from a prison system in crisis.
Recent safety in custody statistics also lay bare the complexity and dangers within our prison system. Prisons are high-risk environments, not only for those who live in them, but for the staff who work tirelessly within them. Much must change before these institutions can truly become places of reform. The challenges we face in custody are not isolated. They are symptoms of deeper, systemic issues across society. It is unrealistic to expect a struggling, violent prison system to single-handedly reduce reoffending.
Levels of extreme violence in prisons are rising — including incidents of homicide. Violence directed towards staff is increasing, and rates of self-harm among people in custody continue to climb. These are not isolated trends; they reflect a system under immense strain.
There is no silver bullet to improve safety outcomes. What works in one prison can produce adverse effects in another. Austerity introduced a benchmarked prison system that levelled down resources and stripped away individualised regimes. This has left many establishments without the flexibility they need to respond to local challenges.
We continue to advocate for greater autonomy and operational freedom for our members — provided they are properly funded to do so. Empowering local leadership is essential to restoring safety, stability, and dignity across the prison estate.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/safety-in-custody-quarterly-update-to-june2025/safety-in-custody-statistics-england-and-wales-deaths-in-prison-custody-toseptember-2025-assaults-and-self-harm-to-june-2025
Our members and colleagues across HMPPS continue to do their utmost to keep the prison system afloat. At times, it feels like this is against all odds and despite the limited contribution from successive governments to properly enable and resource the service the public rightly expects.
Our commitment remains clear: we will work with any political party or government willing to find meaningful solutions to improve conditions in our prisons. We all have a vested interest in making this system safer, fairer, and more effective. But while political parties showboat and grandstand, the real risk to the public is not being effectively managed — despite the relentless efforts of those working within HMPPS.
Could we have a similar announcement for Probation please. Our leaders/unions should also step forward for staff. All of the comments in the press always seem to end in accusations that staff are “lazy and crap” because the promises made to the public and to prisoners are unachievable. Similarly, HMIP expectations are way off reality for most prisons and probation PDUs. It would be a start if we promised less..
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