Tuesday 18 June 2024

Election Latest 2

Today is the last day for any of the estimated 8 million citizens who are not registered to take part in the general election on July 4th to get registered before midnight tonight. Apparently, significant numbers of young people are doing that and I suspect most are not intent in coming to the aid of the Conservative Party.

This election is going to be remembered for a very long time indeed because it's pretty clear the whole UK political landscape is about to change dramatically and countless chickens are coming home to roost. Over the last 14 years I can recall it being said many times when there was some scandal or other involving Tory politicians that it was all 'a Westminster bubble' matter that didn't bother the public at all. 

Well, I think it can now be safely said that the public do care and many, myself included, agree with Carol Vorderman that actions have consequences and the Tory party have proved to be an utterly amoral and malign influence upon our entire social and political landscape. They thoroughly deserve to be eviscerated because they've proved to be utterly incapable of insight, responsibility and probity. All the sensible voices were turfed out it will be recalled.  

This is not a conclusion arrived at by reading manifesto's, especially the Tory one, containing as it does bribes for the elderly and punishments for the young. It's arrived at by close scrutiny and recall of the last 14 years and the mountain of evidence of corruption, gerrymandering, bad behaviour and sneering disregard for much of our institutional fabric and life. They will quite rightly pay a very heavy price and in the process with the inevitable rise of the dreadful Reform company (it is not a party) will make the perfect case for proper Proportional Representation.

I'm pleased to see tactical voting coming of age and hopefully this may well be the last election where it has to be used, but can we please be sensible and have a two thirds majority being required for such a change and not the absurd simple majority Cameron gave us with the bloody Brexit fiasco. Somewhat ironically, it just might have saved the Tory Party from the impending 'extinction event' currently being talked of. It would also of course make a 'super majority' most unlikely because the Green Party and others would also quite rightly gain appropriate representation in a truly democratic-looking House of Commons.                


  1. No mincing of words; if only hmi probation, hmi prisons & the head of the possible review of probation & sentencing could be so unequivocal in their views. But...

    ... how likely are we to read about Jim being gifted a Damehood?


    The honours system recognises people who have:

    made achievements in public life
    committed themselves to serving and helping Britain

    They’ll usually have made life better for other people or be outstanding at what they do.

    1. Haha we all know honours in probation go to those that get a tap on the shoulder and a leg up from their cronies higher up the heirachy

    2. .. and promotions to SLT

  2. From Twitter:-

    "So Michael Gove has reportedly told Tory HQ staff they must double down on the £2000 Labour tax lie because they showed with the £350bn for the NHS Brexit lie that the more a lie is talked about the better it is for the campaign. This is a level of cynicism and political amorality shocking even by their standards. But it is a consequence of the failure of politics and media to hold liars properly to account. It is the normalisation of lies thanks to Brexit and Johnson and the right wing rags that Farage thinks he can get away with the economically illiterate rubbish he produced yesterday. Vote Labour Get Labour. Give these Tories a beating they will never forget." Alastair Campbell

    1. When I listen to all that's been said on the campaign I feel like the child that's promised a month in Disney land every year for summer holidays, but knowing that I'm really only going to get a weekend in Skegness.


    2. https://insidetime.org/newsround/conservatives-drop-pledge-to-scrap-short-sentences/

  3. Hopefully Tory and Labour both get shown the door.

    1. https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/austerity-city-real-impact-14-29369893

    2. Well that’s unlikely !

    3. @anon 05:27 - what point are you trying to make with the article ?

  4. Following PO Inquiry currently and loving the distance ( I’m not accountable) chief Exec of Fujitsu seeks to assert/position himself from the dirty deeds/ criminality. Similar to PO Chair and Royal Mail Chairs. Then I saw on screen a reference to problems with Libra which was said not to be relevant to PO Inquiry…….oh I thought is this the same Libra used in Courts? Would love to know what CJS IT projects Fujitsu has responsibility for. Also find the ‘nothing to see here’ accountability denials very interesting in the context of our excellent leaders and the mess probation is in. Is there something about to emerge about the new managerialism paralysing all public services where everything is given a metric without any insight into its value?

  5. I work in NSD and lately have suicidal thoughts because my role isn't recognised. All the glory goes to admin and practitioners which is justified but business managers are the glue that holds evwrtything together. I don't want much, just to be recognised which our director and heads ignore and dont have the decency to acknowledge me face to face!

    I hope they all wake up and acknowledge us before they have blood on their hands....

  6. https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jun/20/prisons-in-england-and-wales-will-be-at-breaking-point-in-july-governors-told

    1. Prison governors have been warned that jails will be so overcrowded by the second week of July that they will struggle to accept any more inmates, plunging an incoming government into an immediate crisis.

      The heads of jails in England and Wales were informed by HM Prison and Probation Service officials earlier this month that data pointed to an “operational capacity breaking point” only days after the 4 July general election.

      The development signals a significant logistical headache for an incoming justice secretary. It is expected to trigger Operation Early Dawn, a crisis measure that allows offenders to be housed in police cells when jails are full, while other measures can prompt magistrates courts to delay cases.

      The measures are in addition to a temporary government scheme under which prisoners can be released up to 70 days early.

      Tom Wheatley, the president of the Prison Governors Association, said: “We understand that we will no longer be able to receive prisoners from court in the second to third week of July. It is not an exact science – but it is very soon after the election.

      “This position was projected some time ago. The outgoing government did not take the necessary action in a timely fashion to avoid this.”

      Wheatley said any attempt to cram further offenders into prisons beyond the operational capacity could be challenged in the courts.

      “If a new government arrives and says: ‘We want more people in,’ it would be challenged in court by the PGA because ministers would be placing our members at risk,” he said.

      Operation Early Dawn is a contingency measure that has been used for very short periods – usually no longer than a week – to manage immediate, localised, pressures on the prison estate. It steps up coordination between police stations, the Prison Service and the courts to make sure nobody is taken to the courts until the Prison Service can guarantee a space for them should they be remanded.

      According to the latest Ministry of Justice (MoJ) data, released on 14 June, the usable capacity in prisons across England and Wales was 88,815, while the population was 87,347.

      In May, Operation Early Dawn was trigged in London and north-east England before being rolled out across England after concerns over prison overcrowding. It meant that defendants in police custody remained there and were not transferred to magistrates courts for bail hearings in case there was no space in jail cells for those remanded into custody.

      During the same month, police were instructed to consider making fewer arrests because of the lack of space in prisons.

      In a further development, officials have drawn up plans to reduce the time served by prisoners from the current halfway point in their sentences to about 43%.

      Modelling shows this would be the most effective medium-term solution to the overcrowding crisis, generating thousands of spare places. It would replace the current ad hoc early release scheme of up to 70 days.

    2. The Conservative party has shelved its pledge to ensure that most sentences under 12 months should be suspended and served in the community, rather than in prison.

      The proposal formed part of the sentencing bill, which was introduced during the last session of parliament. The bill’s progress ground to a halt when a group of rightwing Tory MPs organised in opposition to the policy.

      The Conservative manifesto omitted any mention of the plan to scrap short prison sentences. It also fails to mention a second element of the sentencing bill, which would have lowered the prison population – a move to extend eligibility for early release under the home detention curfew scheme for people serving sentences of more than four years.

      Labour insiders said the party would force through planning permission for new prisons but have not said how it would deal with an immediate overcrowding crisis, saying they had not had access to government data but were aware that they faced a “brutal inheritance”. The party is widely expected to form the next government.

      Shabana Mahmood, Labour’s shadow justice secretary, said: “This is just the latest example of the chaos the Conservatives have created in our criminal justice system.

      “Not only are they releasing prisoners in secret, now they are deliberately delaying the delivery of justice. For months, the Conservatives have been operating under a cloak of darkness. They must now come clean about the true scale of the crisis on their watch.”

      The Conservative party has been approached for a comment. The MoJ declined to comment in line with purdah rules.

    3. "The heads of jails in England and Wales were informed by HM Prison and Probation Service officials earlier this month that data pointed to an “operational capacity breaking point” only days after the 4 July general election.

      Well, 'Strong White' Romeo has clearly earned her damehood from these vile tories.

  7. Just when you think it can't get any worse. This from BBC website:-

    In the past few hours, the Conservatives have deleted a post on X which showed a spinning roulette wheel and the caption: "If you bet on Labour, you can never win."

    The post was published yesterday - before it emerged the Gambling Commission was looking into the Conservative Party's director of campaigning and his wife over alleged betting relating to the timing of the election.

    One of our newsroom colleagues did manage to screenshot the post before it was taken down, however, and we've shared it below.

    You can read more on the allegations against Tony Lee and Laura Saunders here.

    The Conservative Party's director of campaigning is being looked into over a bet relating to the timing of the general election along with his candidate wife

    Tony Lee has taken a leave of absence and left the campaign on Wednesday, the BBC can reveal. His wife Laura Saunders, the party’s candidate in Bristol North West, has worked for the Tories since 2015

    It is not known when the bet was placed or for how much money

    A Tory spokesman said the party had been "contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals"

    Labour and the Lib Dems call for Saunders to be suspended, with Labour's campaign director writing to Rishi Sunak about the "growing scandal"

  8. who'd have thought it?

    "The government has admitted misleading Parliament in its response to a BBC report about former Afghan special forces being denied entry to the UK."


    "BBC Panorama reported in February that UK Special Forces had vetoed resettlement applications from Afghan commandos - known as the “Triples” - who had fought alongside the SAS.

    The veto was controversial because it gave UK Special Forces decision-making power at a time when the Afghan commandos were potential witnesses to a war crimes inquiry investigating the SAS."

    So, as many have known for decades, the slimey liars will deliberately do & say anything to protect their own interests.

    Sadly Starmer & co ain't immune from such practices:

    "Labour's treatment of Martin Forde KC exposes a racism scandal the media has ignored"

    Ricky from Council Estate Media @substack.com

  9. Jim I love your strategic thoughts and your blog. However please steer clear of partisan politics on this site. Allows for more balanced discussion and willingness to debate the issues affecting us all. Labour are not necessarily the solution and yes, the Conservatives have mismanaged and screwed up the country. However cognisance must be taken of the challenges they faced. But yes, the stuffed up. No party in my mind can fix this.

    1. Good point anon 19:39. People romanticize Labour, but in reality their equally as bad, and Starmer and 'New Labour' isn't the problem, the Labour Party is.

    2. I'll jump in and say I'm afraid my policy is to call out lying, obfuscation, gerrymandering, corruption, self entitlement, etc, etc and the Tory Party has demonstrated all that and more over 14 years. Given our electoral system, there's a binary choice and pointing out the failings of the only other party who could form a government doesn't really help a great deal in my view. I'd rather focus on the chance of electing a government that believes in service rather than encouraging self enrichment and entitlement. Make your choice and stick a cross wherever you choose, I'm just pointing out a few things as I see them.

    3. "I'll jump in and say I'm afraid my policy is to call out lying, obfuscation, gerrymandering, corruption, self entitlement, etc, etc and the Tory Party has demonstrated all that and more over 14 years"

      That's all good, and I think we can agree that the Torys are awful, but omitting any criticism of Labour gives a skewed take, and we can't forget that Labour have more or less gone along with things, and this is even evident in their current manifesto - for example, it talks about doing away with exploitative zero hour contracts, but not getting rid of them completely, and not that they are in and of themselves exploitative.

      "Given our electoral system, there's a binary choice and pointing out the failings of the only other party who could form a government doesn't really help a great deal in my view"
      Yes, bourgeois democracy is the problem. Pointing out that the other party - Labour - are just as bad is good, especially as they try to claim being our party. Labour also claim to be the party of reform, and they can't even do that - expect continued nhs privatization and more, just with a bit of slightly left of conservative window dressing.

      "I'd rather focus on the chance of electing a government that believes in service rather than encouraging self enrichment and entitlement"
      Ok, but back in the real world, a vote for Labour is just a vote for some different personnel for the same capitalist system, and that's all Labour care about.
      Expect more genocide against the Palestinians, press-ganging in Ukraine, and further deterioration in the UK, and they still won't be able to say what a woman is.

    4. I believe things will be better and I'm a pessimist by nature. I'm not saying vote Labour, just need to vent my feelings regarding Tories. Labour was never electable under Corbyn, but has a chance under Starmer. Yes, much of life, politics and the world is shit. Doesn't get us very far though as we need a government.

    5. "I believe things will be better"
      How does Labours more than likely continuation of Tory policy, such as NHS privatization fit into things improving Jim ?

      "Labour was never electable under Corbyn"
      Not that I'm his biggest fan, but pretty sure Labour membership soared when he was leading it, so how does that for in with your assertion ?

      "but has a chance under Starmer"
      Only because he's a willing servant of the establishment - that's why he happily admits his admiration of Margaret Thatcher - not because hes charismatic or possess any leadership quality. In fact, policy aside, Kid Starver isn't a good leader or politician at all, and even people like Blair were good as leaders, even though policy wise were awful. Even Rishi was able to walk on Starver and he did nothing - it's all in their debate from a week or two ago.

      But cool, we really need to get Labour in.

    6. How to respond? I can't be bothered but the discussion is closed, not least because it's entirely academic.

    7. That’s cos you can’t - it was electable under Corbyn but due to the right wing of the Labour Party who sabotaged- Labour didn’t win .
      Starmer is right wing and goes back on any pledges he makes

    8. How you should respond is by backing up the various claims you make, but apparently thats "entirely academic".

    9. Corbyn was up for election twice and failed on both occasions. So he wasn’t electable I’m afraid. That’s a fact proven by the two losses. Also, he had some pretty extreme views in certain things which were unpalatable to the mainstream. He was rigid in his thinking and kept tying himself in knots and scoring own goals.

      Voting for some fringe idealistic party / candidate is a complete waste of a vote. Under PR maybe there is more of a point but certainly not now.

      Labour is the only party that can beat the conservatives and they do offer a bit of hope despite your doom mongering. I fancy trying to appeal to Streeting, Raynor, Nandy, Phillips to have a higher chance of success than trying to appeal to the likes of Zahawi, Shapps and their ilk.

    10. Streeting wants to continue nhs privatization, so good luck with appealing to him, and your girl Jess 'I want to knife Corbyn ' Phillips.

  10. Prisons in England and Wales will be at ‘breaking point’ in July, governors told
    Exclusive: heads of prisons say they will no longer be able to accept new inmates ‘very soon’ after 4 July election


    1. If they won't be able to take new inmates what happens to recalls?



  11. To answer 09:05 I suggest we use a new delius entry “ divert from recall” and in the text box write “ prisons are full” that should do it!

  12. Most new breed will be tories or reform
    Think about that

  13. The constituency where I live is a Tory or Lib Dem seat. Labour are a very very distant third. I vote Lib Dem to keep the Tory out which is the only grown up response in a first past the post system. I donate to labour and vote Lib Dem. Like a grown up. Equally, nationally, labour are the only party that can defeat the Tories, so like a grown up I vote for them. I don’t vote for green/socialist alternative because that is just voting Tory.

  14. Ah yes party membership size famously correlates with electoral victory

  15. Those wonderful lies from the tory machine...


    "Housing Secretary Mr Gove has condemned the latest reports, and likened the controversy to Partygate during the Covid-19 crisis.

    "It looks like one rule for them and one rule for us," the Tory cabinet minister, who is not standing again at the election, told the Sunday Times."

    2023: "Michael Gove says he will not vote for a report that found Boris Johnson deliberately misled Parliament over Partygate... he said he disagreed with the report's recommendation that Mr Johnson should have been suspended for 90 days if he had remained an MP."

    2022: "39 times the government said no rules were broken in the first two weeks after the partygate allegations broke... Boris Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak are to be fined for attending lockdown-breaching parties, the Metropolitan Police announced"

    1. "Michael Gove admits ‘regret’ over rise in children in temporary housing"

      Where does the Housing Sec live?

      "David Cameron has extended an olive branch to Michael Gove by letting him continue living in a £25million grace-and-favour home normally reserved for the Foreign Secretary.

      Mr Gove has lived at One Carlton Gardens since November 2021 after his separation from Daily Mail columnist Sarah Vine.

      The six-storey property, a stone's throw from Trafalgar Square, is considered the grandest of the London grace-and-favour properties available to ministers. It covers two floors and has two dining rooms for entertaining plus a three-bedroom flat"

  16. From Alastair Campbell on Twitter:-

    JUST BEEN LEAKED NOTE BY HEAD OF TORY CAMPAIGN (the one standing in for the one on leave of absence courtesy of William Hill) MEMO ALL CANDIDATES …

    1. We cannot campaign on our record because nothing has improved since we took office.
    2. The biggest change we made last Parliament was Brexit and we can’t campaign on that because the people who hated it hate it more and the people who liked it know we have ballsed it up.
    3. We can’t campaign on our leaders because we have had five in eight years which suggests none of them were very good.
    4. We can’t campaign on Labour being a risk to security and the economy because nobody can do worse than we have and anyway people seem to think @Keir_Starmer is pretty decent and he is for sure not Corbyn.
    5. So LADS, all we have left is this … behave like we have lost, it’s all over bar the shouting, towel thrown in, and hope to God millions of people don’t bother to vote us out because they think somebody else will do it. I know it’s desperate and a bit anti-democratic but needs must. We’re shit and we know we are and so this is it!!! Fuck everything up. Crash the car. Make ourselves look even more unelectable and useless at campaigns. Willie Whitelaw used to talk about travelling the country stirring up apathy. That is all we have left. Do it. Talk up supermajority. I know it is meaningless but it is the only way to stop the superdefeat we all know we deserve.

    Btw we’re having Sunday drinks 1pm. BYOB 🍾 🥂 ps new slogan. STAY AT HOME. DON’T VOTE. KEEP THE TORIES haha!!

    1. William Hill has a Labour win at 1/100,
      Tories and Reform at 25/1, and Lib Dems at 100/1.
      Wonder how many Tories have had a bet on Labour to win the election?

  17. https://www.aol.co.uk/news/prisoner-dreams-normal-life-spending-111649190.html

    "A prisoner who has served 18 years in prison after he was given a 23-month jail term has spoken of his desperation for a “normal life” as he makes his seventh bid to be freed from an indefinite sentence.

    Wayne Williams was locked up aged just 17 for attempting to injure a police officer in a fight. He was told he must serve a minimum sentence of one year, 11 months and 20 days when he was handed an imprisonment for public protection (IPP) sentence in 2006.

    But he is still in prison 18 years later after a string of failed parole bids, as he battles “fear, paranoia and loneliness” under the inhumane sentencing policy, which has since been abolished.

    Now 36, Mr Williams hopes he may finally win his freedom as he faces his seventh parole board review this summer, after the probation service said they supported his release."

    The implication being that the probation service DIDN'T support his release until now? That is not made clear in this article. It would be useful to have some clarity on this aspect.

  18. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cll476qzm85o

    "Figures obtained by the BBC reveal that at least 1.57 billion items of PPE provided by Full Support Healthcare, an NHS supplier based in Northamptonshire, will never be used, despite being manufactured to the proper standard.

    The Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC), which was responsible for purchasing and delivering Covid PPE, said it was unable to provide a statement due to the pre-election period.

    Full Support Healthcare agreed a £1.78bn deal in April 2020 to deliver face masks, respirators, eye protection and aprons - the largest Covid PPE order from a single supplier, accounting for 13% of the government’s total spend."


    "Jails will run out of space within days, putting the public at risk, the body representing 95% of prison governors in England and Wales is warning political leaders.

    The Prison Governors’ Association (PGA) says police officers will be unable to detain people because there will be nowhere to put them.

    “The entire criminal justice system stands on the precipice of failure,” it says in a letter.

    A government spokesperson said public safety would always be the priority."

  19. https://insidetime.org/newsround/release-prisoners-after-40-of-their-sentences/

  20. it seems every last stinking one of uk politicians - regardless of party - are liars, charlatans & greedy scumbags:


    A Conservative cabinet minister claimed that he won more than £2,000 betting on a July general election.

    Shortly after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the election date, Scottish Secretary Alister Jack told the BBC he had made £2,100 after betting on June and July election dates. He claimed one of the bets was placed at odds of 25/1.

    1. No anon 19:13, your not supposed to say that. Apparently Labour are different and we need to vote for them to get the Torys out. We have to ignore the fact that the LP will just carry on with nhs privatization, NATO, and austerity.

    2. Anon 06:21 So your solution is what?

    3. A good solution would be to find a decent independent to vote for and if there isn't one, abstain or spoil ballot, the latter of which still has to be counted.
      Pretty sure I've suggested that a couple times now but it's not been published.

  21. MP bets AGAINST winning his own seat!!

    Labour says as soon as they were told by the Gambling Commission they moved quickly to suspend Kevin Craig... he is suspected of betting on the election result in the Suffolk seat.

    The BBC understands the Labour Party will return the £100,000 in donations that Kevin Craig has made during Keir Starmer's leadership.

  22. Ok, Labour might get rid of the Torys and everyone agrees Torys are poop, then what ?

  23. Trouble is, Labour's default setting response to any dissatisfaction or feeling that they've broken their promises or progress isn't as measured as it should be, will be, it's the Tories fault and we're trying to unravel it. Well, that's why they need a game plan from day one. Anyone who has had any life experience will know that Labour are Diet Conservative and real Labour died with John Smith in 1993. Of course, I await the stories of Labour MPs being corrupt, sexually deviant, criminally inclined and incompetent- it's as if night follows day; scandal is not just the preserve of Tory MPs. Optimistic for a bit of change. But I would manage expectations because it won't change very much. The incoming head of the MOJ will be stocking up on aspirin given the task ahead of them on July 5th.

    1. Mostly in agreement with the above, but would say that Labour are terrible by themselves, no need to call them Torys etc, and what was "real Labour" ? That sounds like some sort of romanticized narrative people have.