A Perfect Storm

So, just as the Telegraph reports on plans by Dominic Cummings to scrap the dysfunctional MoJ - which of course was set up when the Home Office was famously stated to be 'unfit for purpose' - Rob Allen highlights a 'perfect storm' brewing. The question is, who or what government department is going to 'cop' for it? 

Prison Broadly Fails

Not the words of the Howard League or Prison Reform Trust but ex Met Commissioner Bernard Hogan Howe a self-styled “hard-nosed enforcer” who thinks punishment really important. He was speaking in last week’s House of Lords debate on ending automatic halfway release for serious offenders. Despite his widely shared view - in the Lords at least - that there are already far too many prisoners, the Conservative manifesto pledge has been approved by both chambers. And the number of prisoners is likely to get a lot higher over the next ten years.

2,000 new prison places will be needed by 2030 as a result of the Statutory Instrument (SI), approved yesterday in the Commons which will see anyone getting a determinate sentence of seven years or more for a serious sexual or violent offence (carrying a maximum of sentence of life) spending two thirds of their term locked up.

But many more cells will be needed much more quickly if legislation promised for later in the year scraps release at halfway for a wider range of prison sentences. Justice Minister Chris Philp told MP’s the SI is "simply the first step in part of a wider process to make sure that we not only protect the public but respect the rights and concerns of victims”.

Philp had barely got to his feet before one of his colleagues demanded prisoners serve the whole of any sentence imposed. Another wanted even longer than that if they misbehaved inside.

More telling were the powerful contributions made by MPs who expressed the anger and frustration of constituents - and in one case their own family - who affected by serious crimes felt early release meant justice had not been done; not enough punishment, not enough deterrence, not enough protection for victims and the public - not enough time, some said, for rehabilitation.

On the positive side, Philp promised proposals to do more to treat the causes of offending behaviour, particularly drug and alcohol addiction and mental health problems, which are often the cause of high-volume repeat offending. Philp told MPs that “short custodial sentences do not deal effectively with that cohort of offenders”. So David Gauke’s plans to replace them with community orders may still be alive and well in the MoJ. But, while these welcome measures, depending how they are implemented, could reduce the flow of people into prison, they won’t come close to offsetting the impact of larger proportions of longer sentences being served there.

Add in the effects of the 20,000 new police officers - I’ve heard an estimate of a 12-15% growth in prison numbers resulting from better clear up rates - and there’s a perfect storm for HMPPS and the MoJ. A former Chief Justice wondered aloud in the Lords whether even to meet the costs of the initial measures in the SI other parts of the MoJ particularly the courts and legal aid would continue to be denuded to prop up the Prison and Probation Service.

There will at least be a White Paper which will set out the Government’s approach which at best looks like what criminologists used to call bifurcation – more prison at the top end, less at the bottom.

For those of us who want to see less use of prison across the board, there is an urgent need to develop some fresh thinking. Decrying a populist approach and lack of evidence – as Labour and Lib Dem Peers did last week - will not get far.

It is not true – as one MP put it, that there has been “a creeping, pervasive shift away from the victim towards the perpetrator - that the victim is no longer put first, but the perpetrator is.” But penal reform must engage better with the concerns and anxieties of victims - particularly victims of violent and sexual harm - and to develop and promote measures which can address them so much better than incarceration.

The government told Parliament that the White Paper will give an “opportunity to go further and broader” than the measures they were discussing. They are right. If prison broadly fails, we need to legislate for and invest in what broadly succeeds.

Rob Allen