Time for Plan B

As Chris Grayling prepares to go before the Justice Affairs Select Committee today, he'd do well to be reflecting on whether it's now time to come up with a plan B in relation to the Probation Service. Although the opposition to his original scheme of decimation and privatisation has not been as comprehensive or effective as that of the lawyers in relation to Legal Aid, it has been rubbished far and wide, even by those expected to benefit from the break-up. 

Regular readers of this blog in particular will be acutely aware of the avalanche of scorn and criticism that has descended upon the proposed contracting out plans, and of course we are now aware that the government's own risk register highlights significant dangers of the whole thing going comprehensively pear-shaped. It's all going to cost more, lead to increased prison numbers and reoffending is likely to go up, not down. HM Treasury always had doubts about the whole thing and with the House of Lords throwing a spanner in the works, time is running out. 

As Alan Travis of the Guardian explains, it's all contained in that pesky risk register that Grayling didn't want publishing because it neatly spells out the size of the problem:-  

In Whitehall, risk registers are often discounted as simply a troubleshooting management tool where every possibility of something going wrong gets a mention just to cover their backs. The probation minister, Jeremy Wright, dismissed this one in similar terms saying they wouldn't be doing their job if they didn't plan for every eventuality, however remote.

Yet, unlike many such documents this one is unequivocal, with three "code blacks" – the highest risk rating in the traffic-light warnings of green, amber, red and black. The most stark is the risk that "an unacceptable drop in operational performance (during the programme) leads to delivery failures and reputational damage".

For probation, a "delivery failure" can mean that a medium-risk offender – who will be monitored in future by a private company working with a charity – goes on to murder or rape someone after their release because of supervision blunders.

The register says the problems that are likely to lead to an unacceptable drop in performance include "industrial relations/action, morale, management attention diverted; leadership/staff turnover/departures; inability or lack of willingness of trusts to backfill key posts; and that chairs and chiefs disengage".

The other two code blacks are closely related and raise other serious problems, such as insufficient support for the reforms among management and staff. This includes concerns that the behaviour of the existing leadership of the 35 probation trusts "is not conducive to progressing reforms" and that the Probation Chiefs Association and the Probation Association "actively promote resistance".

The third code black is a concern that the "affordability objectives for the reform cannot be demonstrated or met, leading to a failure to secure approvals during the programme". The register says they are particularly concerned that they will be unable to demonstrate the costs and benefits of the new payment-by-results model or fail to make promised savings.

The MoJ's rehabilitation programme board, chaired by Ian Poree, director of the programme and Grayling's principal adviser, also has serious worries about the likely level of private sector participation and whether the new service models will prove effective.

All this is in the government's own words remember and is an absolute gift to doubters and trouble makers both in the Commons and Lords to make mischief and really slow things down. The time for plan B has arrived and a sensible Justice Secretary would now be looking to find a way out of the mess he has found himself in.

It's time to revisit what the Probation Chiefs Association have said all along, namely that commissioning of services would be best left with the successful Probation Trusts. Their strength lies with established local partnerships and the evolving role of Police and Crime Commissioners. Give responsibility for the under 12 month prison leavers to the Trusts and leave it up to them, the experts, to facilitate, commission and organise the rehabilitation revolution we all want. 

There will have to be a re-think about how the extra work can be absorbed on reducing budgets, but many of us in probation would welcome a slimming down of some overheads, especially management and Head Office functions. There could be amalgamations, strategic partnerships or whatever, but for goodness sake Chris - wake up, smell the coffee and let probation demonstrate that they can deliver economies, an expansion of services and all without the risks associated with your crap plan A.