I believe it's generally accepted that most types of crime have been falling in the UK over recent years with only sex offending appearing to buck the trend. The same has been noticed in the United States with a steady decline recorded over the last 20 years, but to everyone's surprise there has been a dramatic drop in the last 2 years. This is particularly surprising as it appears counter-intuitive at a time of economic recession and high unemployment.
In this article 10 possible reasons are put forward to try and explain what exactly is going on. They range from the rather nebulous concept of an 'Obama effect' to the proliferation of camera phones. It could be due to a reduction in the use of crack, smarter policing, crime mapping of hotspots, an increase in abortions, a reduction of lead in petrol, the baby boomers having grown up or kids all being inside watching video games.
Of course it could be because all the bad guys are already in prison.
"A sociologist at Tufts University, John Conklin, says a significant factor behind the fall in crime in the 1990s was the fact that more criminals were behind bars and therefore unable to offend. In his book Why Crime Rates Fell, he says sentencing was lenient in the 60s and 70s, when crime rose, and then more prisons were built and more offenders were imprisoned. But others question why crime has continued to fall recently when budget constraints have kept the prison population relatively flat."
So in reality we don't seem to know, which is a sobering thought because if that is the case, I'm pretty sure we don't really know what works in terms of rehabilitation either.
Interesting perspective, Jim. In contrast to the pseudo science that is 'evidence based practice', I have always considered there to be a element of faith in what we do (not in a religeous sense, I hasten to add). If someone offends and we know that putting them in prison doesn' help, 'trying' something else has to be worth the effort. We all know that, whatever the evidence tells us, that nothing works with everyone all of the time. An alternative mantra may be 'Everything works for some people, some of the time'. So, whislt we can make every effort to ensure that we try the thing most likely to work, its failure id not necessarily our failure but the first attempt at 'something'.
ReplyDeleteI once was told that it takes the average user 11 attempts to come of drugs. My experience tells me that this means that the first 10 attempts are just as important as the 11th. A lot of our efforts are, in some sense, an attempt to rehabilitate. There is honour in that alone. Failure is not only an option, its a part of the learning. The trouble is that, despite all the experiential evidence shared by generations of Probation practitioners, the 'State' is still searching for the 'magic bullet'.
There is also the argument that most offenders grow out of offending so the best thing Probation can do (the only thing?) is to accelerate the maturation process 'by any means necessary'. There is no universal panacea, there is only the option of trying.
I suspect, Jim, that the general march of capitalism is to blame - or rather, to thank - for the dropping crime rate. Nearly everything one wants as an ordinary consumer is now so cheap (relative to periods of high crime), that it's simply not worth stealing. When a new TV, hifi, DVD-player, CD-player, mp3-player, etc. cost only a few pounds, where's the point in stealing them? You can't sell them down the proverbial pub for anything worth the time it took to nick it..
ReplyDeleteAt the same time, security of more valuable items has improved - car radios tend to be moulded to fit the car which makes them harder and more pointless to try and steal; the pricier mobile 'phones (eg iPhones) can be locked remotely once reported stolen and are then fairly useless. Ditto laptops, and they are low-cost enough (especially PCs and new net-book ranges etc) that folk tend to always buy them new, not second-hand...
Clothing also - how many families bother with hand-me-downs when new (albeit cheap and nasty) is so cheap? Homeware, with the advent of IKEA et al, equally cheap.
The market is delivering positive results yet again...
Jim,
ReplyDeleteInteresting post( coming on day of Grn Paper findings & conclusion of JSC Inquiry on -line Forum on Probation).. You might like to look at the Vera Institute for Justice in NY ( Director the estimable former NY Probation Chief M Jacobson ) which I often peruse as the ' gold standard' in providing criminologically sound analysis on how you can downsize prison, reduce crime whilst ensuring public safety.. The crime drop in NYC Podcast below is well worth a browse..
ps/ Mark Johnson spoke at last wks GLN meeting & I would heartily recommend grabbing him for an on-line interview.. his Uservoice presentation was a telling reminder of how Oasys driven practice has frozen out the very people who know how best what works!!
Regards
Mike
http://www.vera.org/videos/franklin-zimring-decline-crime-new-york-city-0
Rob Palmer,
ReplyDeleteNice to hear from you - I'm a big fan of your musings on the NAPO site and your piece on the Justice Affairs forum - I just couldn't be bothered to write anything in the end - this blog is quite enough I think and they'll just have to have a browse on here if they can be bothered.
I agree with what you say. My mindset has always been 'something might work at some time for someone' so just keep trying. Some take longer than others. I never bought into that 'what works' stuff or the endless OASys crap - just kept doing what I'd always done from day one, intuitively I have to say. If nothing else, it has to be more humane.
We know there's no silver bullet, but it won't stop the endless search of course. Unless it turns out to be the relationship between officer and client............been staring us in the face all along, doh!
Cheers,
Jim
Mike,
ReplyDeleteThanks as always for your comments and suggestions - very much appreciated.
Cheers,
Jim
Jim, its such a relief to hear you say about your work being largely intuitive. I sometimes wonder what other people do in their appointments with clients, we have endless training on oasys, risk assessment, sentence planning, and accurate recording(!!!) but nobody really tells you what goes on, or is meant to go on, in the interview room! I am not a fan of endless worksheets, or 'homework' although occasionally these do help to focus a discussion. What I think is most important is that time spent with the client, the building of trust within that relationship and belief within the client that they can succeed. You see a lot of pain and hurt come through our front door, and yes they have inflicted harm on other people, but just giving someone time and an open forum to talk and reflect is valuable beyond any programme in my eyes! I cant wait for the NS changes to come into force, I'm praying that will give me the freedom to spend the time I want to spend with my clients... without having to then work late to record on delius and tick my oasys boxes...!
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