The Voice of Reason

Good to see Napo Cymru continuing to make the case for a stand-alone probation service separated from HM Prison Service. This from Napo magazine:- 

Su pictured with her MP Catherine Fookes

“Probation is already overflowing” Su McConnel warns MPs

Veteran Napo Cymru member and staunch probation campaigner, Su McConnel, delivered a searing indictment of the state of the probation service when she gave evidence to MPs on the welsh Affairs Committee this week. Speaking with clarity and conviction, Su captured what many working in the system have long felt: probation is in deep crisis and policymakers must act before it collapses completely.

Overflowing, overlooked, and under pressure

Su was clear from the outset that probation is not just at capacity; it’s beyond it. With caseloads ballooning, staff struggling to cope, and public safety at risk, she argued that the system is dangerously close to breaking. “This panel is primarily focused on prisons. Prisons are very nearly full to capacity. Probation is already overflowing,” she said pointing out: “We have got a situation where 60 cases is the norm.”

Despite repeated promises, staffing remains inadequate, and the promised support has yet to materialise. “We are always told that the troops are coming over the hill, but they never seem to quite land and stay.”

Recruitment is tough but retention is worse

When asked why the workforce is struggling, Su pointed to a toxic mix of low pay, high stress, and disillusionment. “It is not just recruitment; it is retention. It is people staying.” Su explained: “We are burning through new staff,” and that “I have never seen so many people signed off with stress as I have done this year.”

Demoralised by a shift in culture

The profession that many joined out of a desire to make a difference is becoming unrecognisable. Rather than the previous motto of “advise, assist, befriend” Su said: “Actually, ‘Surveil ‘em, nail ‘em and jail ‘em’ does feel to a lot of new probation staff like what they are being asked to do, because there is no scope or room for the reasons they joined.”

“We have shifted so far from a model of supporting people to change to a model of enforcement that new practitioners are very quickly losing their belief that they can do anything positive,” she concluded.

The human toll

The emotional impact on staff was another key theme of Su’s evidence. “I know colleagues who are in their first year of practice and who are crying on a daily basis because they feel that they are not doing the job that they came into the profession to do.”

It’s a false economy

Su repeatedly challenged the government’s short-term thinking, from underfunded reforms to politically driven headlines that ignore the realities on the ground by saying: “Probation is largely invisible to the public, until we fail.” She called for proper investment — in people, not just systems — and demanded that MPs listen to the voices of those on the frontline.

The magic wand? A real review and independence

When asked what she would do if given a magic wand, Su was clear: “I would want a commitment to a root and branch review of probation, with a view to separating it from the Prison Service — as much as we respect our colleagues — to be a stand-alone organisation in its own right.”

The message to ministers is clear

Su McConnel’s appearance before the Committee didn’t just highlight problems, it offered a path forward. Her call for investment, professional trust, and workforce support resonated far beyond the hearing room. She didn’t ask for miracles. Just for leadership to listen.

This article is based on Su McConnel’s oral evidence to the House of Commons Justice Committee on 14 May 2025. Watch here

Why We Are Where We Are

Yet again thanks go to ace sleuth 'Getafix for pointing us in direction of this article published yesterday by Yorkshire Bylines:-

Safe for all? How austerity wrecked the probation service

Austerity broke it: the probation service in England and Wales is now rated “inadequate” after years of cuts, chaos and failed privatisation 

Who would be a probation officer? Long hours, complex work and some of the most challenging clients imaginable. In spite of all that, over 20,000 full-time probation service staff work in the probation service day in, day out. And yet, with the probation service’s watchdog’s recent annual report having rated the probation service as inadequate, there is a mounting sense that it may be at crisis point.

The probation service stands at a precarious moment. With the government reducing sentences in an attempt to ease an overwhelmed prison system, more and more criminals are being managed in the community. However, the government’s chief inspector of probation services says that the public are at real risk of crime unless the probation service is overhauled and properly funded. Why is the probation service underperforming at the exact moment the system needs to be robust and properly funded?

The roots of the service’s inadequate performance go back further than 12 months to disastrous decisions made over 15 years ago which have wrecked the system designed to keep the public, staff and offenders safe for all.

Faced with a growing populist backlash and chronic underfunding, it’s worth asking what has broken the probation service. The answer is austerity.

Probation service: a deteriorating system for managing offenders

In 2010, the Conservative-led coalition government came to power and inherited a healthy, award-winning service for managing offenders leaving prison. The National Offender Management Service was managed by 35 publicly owned probation trusts. While never perfect, as no public body ever is, the overall system was a healthy one. Fast forward 15 years and the latest research into the overall health of the system makes for grim reading.

In March 2025, HM Inspectorate published its annual report, covering inspections undertaken between February 2024 and February 2025, and on 29 April, it published the results of its 2025 inspection into the general sufficiency of national probation services. The results, the inspectorate discovered, were wanting. Martin Jones, Chief Inspector of Probation, said: “Major shortfalls were found in service delivery and work to keep people safe remains a significant cause for concern”. The report highlighted that the probation service was not meeting the needs of offenders released from prison or the wider community. Staff were underfunded and overworked, and junior staff were not supported.

This is a sadly all too familiar story for those who have worked for or had contact with the probation service.

Austerity: all in this together, or a convenient lie?

How did this happen? How did the umbrella service for managing offenders either going to prison, in prison, or having left prison, go from an award-winning service in 2014 to a failing service staffed by burnt-out staff with overflowing caseloads? The answer, in a word, is austerity.

When the Tory-Lib Dem coalition was formed in 2010, it immediately began cutting the public sector. Britain’s finances, they claimed, were on the brink of ruin and cutting the public sector was the only remedy that would stave off complete collapse. In fact, it was a lie. A convenient lie which acted as the ideological cover for stripping back the state. In 2010, David Cameron gave a speech in which he outlined his vision for Britain, saying he wanted a “fairer, greener, safer Britain”. Ultimately, austerity delivered none of these things. Instead 14 years of Tory government left Britain an impoverished, broken down, sicker country.

The cost of austerity for the probation service

Nowhere is the failure of austerity more acutely on display than in the current failures of the probation service. In 2014, minister Chris Grayling pushed through the part-privatisation of the probation service, in which the trusts previously responsible for managing offenders in the community were scrapped.

The state was left to manage only the high-risk offenders. The rest were to be managed by private entities called Community Rehabilitation Companies (CRCs). The result was a disaster. The number of offenders breaking the terms of their licenses went up, and central government had to bail out the failing CRCs. The total cost? Five hundred million pounds. The privatisation process was later reversed. So, the taxpayer ended up paying £500mn for a failed privatisation scheme which made offending worse.

Austerity’s legacy: the catastrophic undermining of the probation service

The disastrous Grayling reforms are very instructive. This year, 15 years on from the first ‘austerity’ budget under the Tory-Lib Dem coalition, it’s become clear that a pattern has emerged as follows:

Take a public service which may have its problems but is working well at the point of delivery. Then invent a crisis, use that crisis to starve it of public funds, then let results plummet and public confidence deteriorate. Then introduce privatisation, and when the outcome is failure, blame it on ‘woke’ policies and frittering away public money on ergonomic chairs and rainbow lanyards. It’s a recipe not for a successful society but a smoking ruin of a country.

The probation service provides a vital service. Probation service staff at all levels have immense responsibility to judge risk, provide a high-quality service and treat offenders with dignity and respect. We’ve learned from the inspectorate’s report that such a challenging job cannot be delivered when staff are overburdened, underfunded and landed with impossible expectations including unrealistic caseloads.

There are pathways to return the service towards a high-quality service. In May this year Unison recommended that the whole system be decentralised and given proper oversight again by elected mayors. But unless the catastrophic error of austerity is reversed, and the service is given proper investment, to support junior staff, reduce caseloads and provide proper oversight of offenders, it’s hard to see outcomes improving.

Alex Mair 

Alex is a writer based in West Yorkshire. Yorkshire is the place where he has spent the majority of his working life. He has written for a variety of publications for over ten years. He lives with Rosie and one child from her previous relationship.

Sentencing Review Responses

Napo press release:-

Napo welcomes Sentencing Review

Napo welcomes the Sentencing Review and in particular its focus on the critical role the probation service plays in the supervision and the rehabilitation of people in the criminal justice system. The review vindicates Napo’s long held view that radical action is needed to resolve the staffing and workload crisis probation has been struggling with for a number of years.

The review is right to look at the culture of the probation service and how it has shifted to far towards being a law enforcement agency and has lost sight of its core purpose of rehabilitation. We welcome the view that there needs to be greater balance between compliance and enforcement and that of advising and supporting people to turn their lives around.

We welcome the recommendation that Rehabilitation Requirements and Post Sentence Supervision are revoked and there is a return to greater flexibility in how an individual is supervised. A probation requirement would enable our members to tailor supervision to meet the needs of the person they supervise as opposed to the rigid approach probation has adopted over the years.

Whilst the measures outlined in the review will not give immediate relief to our members, it will offer some light at the end of the tunnel. However, Napo has reservations about HMPPS’s ability to make the necessary changes when they were the architects of many of the problems the service now faces. As we saw with the publication of the Rademaker report, our members will be sceptical as to whether or not senior leaders in HMPPS are capable of making any real change. Napo was clear in our submission that we do not believe that the probation service can survive while it is still part of the civil service.

General Secretary Ian Lawrence said: “This review offers some hope for the future, but Napo has been asking HMPPS to make many of these changes over the last 2 years to little avail. We need a commitment from the government that they will take immediate action not only to implement the recommendations, but also to put its hand in its pockets and reward our members with a decent pay rise.”

A key aspect of the review is the call for significant investment in the probation service. Napo firmly believes that after years of pay freezes, Napo members must see the benefit of this investment on the frontline. Ian Lawrence said: “Any previous investment in probation has been spent on the private sector for either IT or electronic monitoring. What we need to see now is a direct investment in staff. Without that we will see a continual rise in retention rates and continued staffing crisis. Our members cannot be expected to pick up the mess of the prisons crisis and see little in return for their efforts.”

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This from Prison Reform Trust:-

PRT comment: Independent Sentencing Review

The Prison Reform Trust welcomes the Independent Sentencing Review and its clear commitment to evidence–based reform.

Commenting, Pia Sinha, chief executive of the Prison Reform Trust, said:

“This comprehensive and in-depth review represents a once in a generation opportunity to reset the sentence framework so that it is more focused on reducing reoffending and keeping the public safe. Proposals to expand the use of effective community alternatives and limit pointless short spells in custody will not only free up limited prison capacity but also lead to better outcomes for victims and wider society. We hope the government will accept and implement the majority of measures in this review and we look forward to its response."

Pia Sinha

The review rightly recognises that short prison sentences are less effective at reducing reoffending than robust community-based alternatives. Proposals to limit the use of short sentences to exceptional circumstances, and greater use of suspended and deferred sentencing, offer a practical route to reducing the number of people serving brief, ineffective custodial terms—sentences that do little to improve public safety or support rehabilitation.

The review’s focus on expanding the use of effective community alternatives is both positive and necessary. The review is right to recognise the need for this to be backed by sufficient funding and resources for probation to supervise more people in the community. We welcome proposals to provide sustainable and long-term funding for women’s centres, expand the use of intensive supervision courts and increase investment in community sentence treatment requirements and liaison and diversion services.

The review is also right to highlight the need to restructure standard determinate sentences and regularise release points. This represents a sensible, phased approach to rehabilitation—supporting people to begin their return to the community under supervision, while still serving their sentence. The introduction of an incentives model will need to be monitored carefully to ensure it does not lead to unfair or disproportionate outcomes.

The rapid rise in recall in the past few decades has been a major driver of the growth in the prison population, often trapping people in a revolving door of imprisonment and release. We welcome the review’s proposals to limit its use and to prevent people from being returned to prison for technical breaches of their licence. If implemented they would represent a more proportionate and constructive approach, helping to break the cycle and support long-term rehabilitation.

This review comes at a time of acute pressure on prison capacity—driven by years of sentence inflation and the failure of politicians to plan for the consequences of their penal populism. We welcome proposals to introduce an external advisory body on sentencing and a requirement for ministers to make an annual report to parliament on prison capacity. These measures would encourage evidence-based policy and provide an important check on kneejerk responses to crime by politicians. However, the review does not address the significant impact of longer sentences for serious offences, which have been a key driver of the rising prison population. There will be an opportunity to return to this pressing issue with the report of the Law Commission on homicide law in the coming years.

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This from Rob Allen:-

A Good Try- but can it be Converted?

I met David Gauke a few years back when our sons were on opposite sides in a rugby match. I was impressed that he recalled our touchline conversation when we talked briefly again this January at a Sentencing Council seminar. He told the seminar that whatever else it might do, there was an arithmetical imperative his Sentencing Review’s recommendations should effect a sustained reduction in demand for prison places to prevent continuing recourse to the emergency measures we’ve seen over the last couple of years.

His wide ranging and largely welcome report is more a review of the execution of sentences than it is of sentencing. It says little about addressing the rampant sentence inflation which the first part of the review identified as the cause of the capacity crisis.

But it does contain important proposals which are estimated to result in a fall in the prison population of 9,800 places. Unfortunately, the report lacks the kind of detailed cost benefit analysis that generally accompanies legislation in the form of an Impact Assessment signed off by ministers. That’s a shame, particularly as the Lord Chancellor’s rejection of some of Gauke’s proposals will undoubtedly bring the 9,800 figure down. But by how much it’s hard to say.

Take the proposal that short custodial sentences are used only in exceptional circumstances. Gauke reckons this will save 2,000 places. But a similar measure proposed by the last government in 2023 was estimated to save between only 200 and 1,000 places. The Lord Chancellor has described the Gauke scheme as “a presumption against custodial sentences of less than a year – in favour of tough community sentences.” The 2023 version involved a duty to suspend a prison sentence- a subtle but important distinction which may account for the difference in the assessments. But without the detailed workings it’s impossible to say.

A larger reduction in prison places is expected from Gauke’s early release proposals. Unfortunately, the Lord Chancellor hasn’t accepted them in their entirety. For those serving Standard Determinate Sentences (SDS), Government plans to ditch an upper limit to the proportion of the sentence they serve in prison will eat into the 4,100 places that would be saved. Gauke wanted the more dangerous prisoners serving Extended Sentences to be able to earn a Parole hearing at the halfway point of their sentence. MoJ says no and they’ll have to continue to wait until two thirds has passed. So the 600 places that would have been saved presumably won’t be.

The government say they’ll “introduce a tougher adjudication regime so that bad behaviour in prisons is properly punished”. Under the earned release scheme, offences against discipline, such as engaging in any threatening, abusive or violent behaviour, or possessing unauthorised articles would result in the offender’s release point being pushed back. It’s not clear that the Review team took a tougher disciplinary regime into account when assessing the numbers of SDS prisoners who’ll qualify for release at the earliest point.

The Lord Chancellor told Parliament today that as things stand, they’ll be short of 9,500 places by 2028. Gauke’s certainly had a try at bridging the gap. But can it be converted?

Rob Allen

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This from the Howard League:-

The Howard League for Penal Reform has responded to the final report of the Independent Sentencing Review, published today (Thursday 22 May).

The review, led by David Gauke, a former Secretary of State for Justice, calls for a series of measures to address the prison capacity crisis through reducing reoffending and ending an overreliance on custody.

Andrea Coomber KC (Hon.), Chief Executive of the Howard League for Penal Reform, said:

 “This is a vital review that makes the case for change by focusing on the evidence on what will reduce reoffending and prevent more people becoming victims of crime.

“The ball is now in the government’s court. Solving the prison capacity crisis will require major intervention and, as the review recognises, this will only succeed if reform and investment deliver an effective and responsive probation service that works to cut crime in the community.

“And more must be done. The proposals unveiled today are a good start, and if enacted they will buy ministers more time and some headroom in an overstretched system. Ultimately, however, they are insufficient because the terms of reference for the review excluded consideration of more serious offences.

“If the government really wants to ensure that the country never runs out of prison places again, it must be bolder and address the longest and indeterminate sentences that have driven the criminal justice system to the brink of collapse.”

The Howard League submitted evidence to the review in January 2025, calling on the government to abolish sentences of 12 months or less and expand the use of suspended sentences, and emphasising the need for a well-resourced and effective probation service.

The charity’s submission, which drew on feedback received from members in prison, also called for custodial sentences to be reconceived, with focus on rehabilitation and incentivising progression.

Crime and Punishment

There's going to be a lot of talk about criminal justice today and this from the Guardian sets the scene:-

Shabana Mahmood considers chemical castration for serious sex offenders

Shabana Mahmood, the lord chancellor, is considering mandatory chemical castration for the most serious sex offenders, according to government sources.

The minister’s department is planning to expand a pilot to 20 regions as part of a package of “radical” measures to free thousands of prisoners and ease prison overcrowding in England and Wales.

As well as releasing and tagging killers and rapists after they have served half of their sentence, she is considering the findings of an independent sentencing review that has also called for the government to build an evidence base on drugs that “suppress libido” or reduce “sexual thoughts”.

They are among 48 recommendations put forward by David Gauke, the chair of the review.

Mahmood is expected to address the Commons on Thursday to outline which measures she will accept in a major overhaul of criminal justice. Government sources said she is expected to accept the review’s key measures including that well-behaved prisoners should be released on tag after serving a third of their sentences.

She has also accepted that those who have committed serious sexual or violent crimes could be freed to serve their sentence in the community after they have served half of their sentence.

One of Gauke’s suggestions – that the most dangerous offenders should be allowed to apply for parole earlier if they earn “credits” – has been dismissed by sources close to the justice secretary.

The report has urged ministers to build a comprehensive evidence base around the use of chemical suppression for sex offenders and examine the findings of similar programmes in Germany, Denmark and Poland.

“Problematic sexual arousal and preoccupation can be reduced via chemical suppressants and other medications, which can be prescribed for individuals who have committed a sexual offence under certain circumstances,” the report notes.

It points out that a 2022 pilot programme at prisons in south-west England which uses libido-suppressing drugs is due to end next year and recommends “continued funding of services in this area”. The government plans to expand the pilot using these as a staging post to a full, nationwide rollout, a source close to Mahmood said.

The approach is delivered through two drugs. Selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors (SSRIs) limit invasive sexual thoughts. Anti-androgens reduce the production of testosterone and limit libido. The drugs are taken alongside psychiatric work that targets other causes of sexual offending, such as a desire for power and control.

Mahmood is exploring whether chemical castration could be made mandatory, instead of voluntary, for the most serious offenders, the source said. Sexual offences accounted for 21% of adults serving immediate custodial sentences at the end of March 2025. The report notes that participation in any such programme would be voluntary in England and Wales.

Among the main recommendations, Gauke, the former Conservative justice secretary, said the government should:

• Ensure custodial sentences under 12 months are only used in exceptional circumstances.
• Extend suspended sentences to up to three years and encourage greater use of deferred sentences for low-risk offenders.
• Give courts greater flexibility to use fines and ancillary orders like travel, driving and football bans.
• Allow probation officers to adjust the level of supervision based on risk and compliance with licence conditions.
• Expand specialist domestic abuse courts to improve support for victims.
• Expand tagging for all perpetrators of violence against women and girls.
• Improve training for practitioners and the judiciary on violence against women and girls.
• Change the statutory purposes of sentencing so judges and magistrates must consider protecting victims as much as they consider punishment and rehabilitation when passing sentences.

Gauke has called for the need to increase funding and resources for the probation service, including expanding the availability of electronic monitoring equipment like tags, and warned that there will be a “public backlash” if money is not found.

“If probation are left without additional resources then the risk is that we won’t make progress on rehabilitation and there will be a public backlash,” he said.

The National Police Chiefs’ Council echoed Gauke’s calls for more resources.

Chief constable Sacha Hatchett, national policing lead for criminal justice, said: “Out of prison should not mean out of control. If we are going to have fewer people in prison, we need to ensure that we collectively have the resources and powers to manage the risk offenders pose outside prison.

“Adequate funding to support these measures must be reflected in the upcoming spending review, as well as investment in probation services and technology, including electronic monitoring.”

Penal reform group the Howard League welcomed the recommendations.

Andrea Coomber, the chief executive, said: “The ball is now in the government’s court. Solving the prison capacity crisis will require major intervention and, as the review recognises, this will only succeed if reform and investment deliver an effective and responsive probation service that works to cut crime in the community.”

The Conservatives have condemned Gauke’s review. Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, said: “By scrapping short prison sentences Starmer is effectively decriminalising crimes like burglary, theft and assault. This is a gift to criminals who will be free to offend with impunity.”

Justice Secretary Nonsense

I'm afraid my patience has run out entirely in respect of the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood and her latest 'unpaid work is too lenient' nonsense, thus further stoking up right wing rhetoric in response to Reform. With a heavy heart I now feel I have no option but to admit this Labour government hasn't got a clue as far as probation is concerned. There's clearly not going to be any enlightened probation reforms and astonishingly the Gauke Sentencing Report is likely to be rejected as too enlightened! 

As far as I can see, Lord Timpson is going to have a hard time convincing the probation establishment gathering for the 2025 Bill McWilliams lecture in Cambridge on July 11th that probation has any meaningful future at all.  

Criminals could fill potholes and clean bins under government plans

Convicted criminals could be told to fill potholes and clean bins under plans the government is understood to be developing.

As first reported by the Sun on Sunday, the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood is said to want to expand unpaid work, which she believes to be too lenient. She is understood to want probation teams to work with councils, so that local authorities are able to assign jobs to offenders. Private companies would also be able to employ those who are on community sentences. Offenders would not be paid wages, but the money earned would be paid into a fund for victim's groups.

It comes as prisons across the country are struggling to deal with overcrowding after the number of offenders behind bars hit a new high. A government source said: "With prisons so close to collapse, we are going to have to punish more offenders outside of prison. "We need punishment to be more than just a soft option or a slap on the wrist. If we want to prove that crime doesn't pay, we need to get offenders working for free - with the salary they would have been paid going back to their victims." They added this meant doing the jobs the public "really want them to do - not just scrubbing graffiti, but filling up potholes and cleaning the bins".

Writing for the Telegraph, external, Ms Mahmood, who describes herself as a "card-carrying member" of her party's "law and order wing", said that "tough community orders work." An independent review of sentencing carried out by the former Conservative justice secretary David Gauke is expected to be published this week. It was commissioned last year after overcrowding led to the early release of thousands of prisoners. 

Gauke is understood to be considering recommending the idea of scrapping short prison terms as part of the sentencing review, and is likely to recommend more community-based sentencing to reduce the reliance on imprisonment. In an interim report, Gauke warned that unless radical changes were made, prisons in England and Wales could run out of cells by early next year.

Ms Mahmood warned that he would "have to recommend bold, and sometimes difficult, measures". In her article, she pointed to examples such as the system in Texas, where she said "offenders who comply with prison rules earn an earlier release, while those who don't are locked up for longer". On Wednesday, she announced more than a thousand inmates will be released early to free up spaces in prisons in England and Wales, and that a £4.7bn investment will be used to fund more prisons.

Shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick said the announcement was "failing to protect the public" - adding "to govern is to choose, and today she's chosen to release early criminals who've reoffended or breached their licences".

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Postscript

My Twitter account has either been hacked, deactivated, lost or deleted which is very annoying, but then Elon Musk has completely rubbished it anyway, so seeing as Virgin have lost my email account as well, I'll just accept it all as confirmation that trying to save Probation is fast becoming a lost cause and I'll just shout into an empty ether....

Probation Gets a Mention!

This from BBC website today:- 

Bold spending needed to halt prison crisis - union

The government's efforts to fix the prison crisis may not work without "bold investment decisions", the leading union for the probation service has said.

Ian Lawrence, general secretary of Napo, said a review of sentencing policy by former Conservative Justice Secretary David Gauke "may come to little effect" if the probation service was underfunded. 

The union boss said he supported proposals to scrap short sentences for some offenders and toughen up community orders supervised by probation officers. But he said probation staff were already "overworked" and suggested any "cost cutting" could increase pressure on the service. "I'm struggling to see how a package of sentencing reform can work without the necessary support," Lawrence told the BBC.

A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said a "crisis" in the justice system had "put a huge strain on the probation service". "We are hiring 1,300 new probation officers, investing in technology to cut back on admin, and increasing focus on those offenders who pose the greatest risk to the public," the spokesperson said. "This will ease pressure on the service, help cut reoffending and keep our streets safe."

Gauke is understood to be considering recommending the idea of scrapping short prison terms as part of the sentencing review.

The review comes as prisons across the country are struggling to deal with overcrowding after the number of offenders behind bars hit a new high. In an interim report, Gauke warned that unless radical changes were made, prisons in England and Wales could run out of cells by early next year. Gauke's sentencing review is expected to be published this month, before the government sets out its spending plans for departments in June.

"Napo would welcome any initiatives to reduce the numbers of people in our prison estate," Lawrence said. "But that can't come without the lord chancellor absolutely recognising the pressures that the probation service is now facing and will in the future. "And that's why we need brave, bold investment decisions by this government and not more of the same."

Tight budget

The prisons and probation budget fell by 12% when inflation was accounted for between 2007–08 and 2023–24, according to analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, external.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has outlined plans for efficiency savings and in her spring statement, said day-to-day government spending would fall by £6.1bn per year by 2030. But the chancellor has not yet stated which departments will have less money to spend, meaning it's not clear how the probation service will be affected. The money allocated to government departments for the three years beyond 2025-26 will be set out in the spending review in June.

Lawrence said a reduction in funding for the Ministry of Justice, which oversees the probation service, could mean less funding to support offenders in the community and worse outcomes.

"In other words, they go out of prison and they've got no option but to commit crime because they have no means of supporting themselves," he said. "They're back in prison within weeks. And so it goes on and that costs the taxpayer millions."

A source at the Prison Reform Trust, a charity, said the probation service would need to be resourced properly if there was more community sentencing. They said the government may have to divert funding from prisons towards probation and community solutions. "It needs to make a strong economic case for why this would be a spend-to-save policy," they said.

Pay dispute

In a national inspection report, the probation watchdog said there was a high shortfall of officers in some regions and workloads were a problem. Lawrence said Napo was in dispute with the prison and probation service over pay progression and workloads. He said the union had submitted a claim for a 12% pay rise for probation staff this year. That's way above the increases independent pay review bodies have advised the government to give teachers (4%) and NHS workers (3%). 

Lawrence said probation workers going on strike was a possibility if the pay offer was too low. "We think senior leaders in [the service] have a responsibility to let ministers know the gravity of the situation," he said. "And that worries me as to whether ministers are truly sighted on the operational crisis that exists in probation right now."

In a speech in February, external, Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood set out her vision for reforming the probation service. She said probation officers were "responsible for caseloads and workloads that exceed what they should be expected to handle".

The changes she announced included 1,300 new trainee probation officers by next March, and an £8m investment in new technology to reduce the administrative burden on staff.

Usual Populist Political Stuff

Probation continues to be side-lined and ignored whilst we get the usual populist political stuff. This from the BBC website today:-

More offenders could be tagged, as minister insists he's 'not soft on crime'

Prisons minister James Timpson has told the BBC more criminals could be tagged in future instead of being sent to prison - but insists he's not "soft on crime".

More than 30 companies, including Microsoft and Google, will meet the government today to explore how technology could help monitor offenders in the community more effectively and tackle violence in prison.

Lord Timpson says tagging more people instead of sending them to prison is a potential alternative punishment. But critics have questioned his previous comments about the UK being "addicted" to sentencing and punishment, and how "only a third" of inmates should be in prison.

"I don't think I'm soft on crime at all," Lord Timpson says in the wide-ranging BBC interview. "I think I'm pretty tough in my style. In business, I'm tough but I use the evidence - and in this job I'm using the evidence."

He says he is passionate about rehabilitating offenders in prison so they don't commit further crimes when released. However, more than 26% of adult criminals in England and Wales go on to reoffend within a year of being let out of prison.

"How do we reduce re-offending? How do we deal with people's drug addiction, mental health problems, the fact that people leave prison they don't know where to live, people don't have a job? That is also a really important part of my job," he says.

The former CEO of the Timpson Group, which provides key cutting and shoe repair services, is known for hiring ex-offenders and is a former chairman of the Prison Reform Trust.

Lord Timpson took up his role at the Ministry of Justice in July last year, when the penal system in England and Wales was close to breaking point. Prisons were full, and months later thousands of inmates were released early as part of an emergency plan to ease overcrowding and free up space.

He says prisons are still in a state of "crisis", with fewer than 1,000 spare places and more than 88,000 people in custody in England and Wales.

"We recently opened HMP Millsike," he says, describing the new category C prison which opened in East Yorkshire in March, with capacity for up to 1,500 inmates. "We've got more cells opening across the country. We need to keep building prison places because the population is going up."

Last month, three prison officers were seriously injured at HMP Frankland, in Durham, after they were attacked with makeshift weapons and hot oil by one of the men responsible for the Manchester Arena bombing. Hashem Abedi was being held in a separation centre - used to house a small number of the most dangerous and extremist inmates - at the category A, maximum security jail.

"What happened in Franklin is absolutely shocking," Lord Timpson says. "The level of violence in prisons is far too high - and it is increasing. "Our prison staff did an incredible job. I don't want them to turn up to work thinking that there's going to be violence. I want them to turn up to work helping people turn their lives around."

However, the number of assaults on staff in prison is the highest in a decade, with 10,605 recorded in 2024.

Lord Timpson refutes claims that gangs are in charge of some of Britain's biggest jails, but acknowledges that serious organised crime is the one thing that "keeps me awake at night".

"Serious organised crime brings drugs in and creates violence and intimidation in prisons," he says. "This has been a long-term problem in prisons, but it is even more of a problem when the capacity is as full as it is.

"If we had people who went to prison who didn't get drugs and weren't intimidated by serious organised criminals, they'd be far more likely to engage with a sentence and get well enough so that when they leave they don't commit further crime."

The government has commissioned an independent sentencing review to explore alternatives to prison in an attempt to ease overcrowding. The review will provide long-term solutions for the justice system and examine the use and composition of non-custodial sentences, including community alternatives to prison and the use of fines. Increased tagging will also be considered.

There are three types of ankle tags currently used to monitor offenders: alcohol, GPS, and curfew tags. A new study suggests tags that monitor curfews cut reoffending by 20%.

"We want them to have a one-way ticket - not a return back into prison or back into non-custodial sentences," Lord Timpson says. "What's really important is we embrace technology and look at the evidence - tagging can have some very important benefits."

But the use of electronic tagging to monitor offenders has been problematic. In recent months several probation staff have told the BBC offenders who should be tagged, have not been. The security company Serco has been contracted by the government to manage tagging since October 2023.

"We inherited a contract with Serco and it's been far from perfect," Lord Timpson says. "We're putting a lot of pressure still on them to perform, but we need to work together to make sure that people are tagged on time in the right way. Things are getting better, but we're not there yet."

Anthony Kirby, Serco Group CEO, told the BBC he is pleased the prisons minister has recognised the progress Serco has made since taking over the electronic monitoring service: "We are proud of the role we have supporting the Criminal Justice System, monitoring record numbers of people in the community and protecting public safety in partnership with HMPPS."