“Promises of extra investment are starting to sound like snake oil... Napo is urging government to listen to probation professionals... HMPPS has previously been issued with seven key demands, with deadlines for implementation"
Probation's been spoon-fed snake oil for decades. Local, regional & national management have been collectively holding the noses of probation staff & pouring it down their throats. No matter how its been disguised & delivered - Choreographed, Trusted, Transformed or Reset - it still tastes like shit.Difficulty is that the unions (plural) have no authority, no gracvitas, no meaningful presence... just wobbly words of if's, but's, maybe's, wild claims & empty promises. They do a lot of "urging", so much so its a wonder they haven't had a prolapse. They do a lot of "demanding", but from a position of subservience & learned helplessness.
The "indicative" ballot is, as [has been pointed out] above, not exactly overwhelming when 9% of however many of the 6,135 members (no AR21 for 2025 yet, so this remains the 2024 membership figure) do not vote for it.
IF *all* members voted (I doubt they did) that's over 550 union members who, in this current climate of ever-worsening shitstorm, did NOT vote for "potential industrial action over workloads". If the current & impending situation isn't enough to make you fear the worst, what will it take?
Severally & individually you're in a position of extreme jeopardy, with the current dangerous levels of workload about to be ramped up beyond what is imaginable. The govt & hmpps haven't a fucking clue what they're doing & as an ex-prison governonr said on R4 yesterday, the PM is getting shit advice from a pack of inexperienced blowhards & his cabinet sec - ***who used to be the DG of HMPPS***. What he didn't go on to say was she was responsible for so much of the catastrophe that's been brewing for the last decade at least.
The whole Sentencing Act is about to be re-written - again - and it aint going to be pretty. Its already been rebranded as The New Progression Model ... one where the loudest cries of "foul" result in failure to release because hmpps will find some means of keeping the chosen ones in gaol for a few more weeks or months.
Meanwhile those moderate rightwingers wanting to 'reform' the country are having a ball, with ex-prison governor flakey frake signalling the return of the death penalty wouldn't go amiss. And 9% of however many voted (will we ever know?) think there's nothing to fret about?
Anon
*****
Whatever anyone thinks of Napo, 90.76% of those voting in an indicative ballot supporting potential industrial action should be impossible for HMPPS to dismiss as a few disgruntled staff.
I agree that Napo should publish the turnout and actual voting figures because transparency matters. But perhaps the bigger question is what happens next.
Probation has an unusual amount of public attention at the moment. Channel 4 is actively asking frontline staff to describe what is happening. Early release is dominating the news. Government is relying on “tougher community supervision” to reassure the public, while simultaneously expecting an already overstretched service to deliver it.
If ever there were a moment for probation staff to stop being the invisible part of the criminal justice system, surely this is it.
And this cannot be allowed to become simply an argument about wanting more pay or doing less work. Workloads, retention, experience, training, professional autonomy and yes, pay, all ultimately lead back to the same thing: public protection.
The government cannot tell the public that probation will provide the safety net for its sentencing and early-release policies while ignoring warnings from the people expected to provide that safety net.
The really interesting question now is whether Napo is prepared to use the leverage its members currently have, or whether we get another round of strongly worded statements, meetings, “urging” HMPPS to act and then watch the moment pass.
Because “without probation none of this can happen” is only a powerful statement if probation is finally prepared to act like it believes it.
I agree that Napo should publish the turnout and actual voting figures because transparency matters. But perhaps the bigger question is what happens next.
Probation has an unusual amount of public attention at the moment. Channel 4 is actively asking frontline staff to describe what is happening. Early release is dominating the news. Government is relying on “tougher community supervision” to reassure the public, while simultaneously expecting an already overstretched service to deliver it.
If ever there were a moment for probation staff to stop being the invisible part of the criminal justice system, surely this is it.
And this cannot be allowed to become simply an argument about wanting more pay or doing less work. Workloads, retention, experience, training, professional autonomy and yes, pay, all ultimately lead back to the same thing: public protection.
The government cannot tell the public that probation will provide the safety net for its sentencing and early-release policies while ignoring warnings from the people expected to provide that safety net.
The really interesting question now is whether Napo is prepared to use the leverage its members currently have, or whether we get another round of strongly worded statements, meetings, “urging” HMPPS to act and then watch the moment pass.
Because “without probation none of this can happen” is only a powerful statement if probation is finally prepared to act like it believes it.
Anon
The ballot means nothing because probation will never use it to achieve anything meaningful. The solution is one you'll never listen to because the service is riven with misandry from top to bottom, it's why so few of your beloved popsicles trust you. Probation has no direction because you won't admit to your main problem.
ReplyDeletesox
Sox, I’m genuinely interested in what you’re arguing here rather than dismissing it. I actually agree with your first sentence to an extent, that’s precisely why I questioned whether Napo will use the leverage it currently has rather than allowing the moment to pass.
DeleteBut you’ve then made quite a leap. If you’re saying that misandry is probation’s “main problem” and somehow central to workloads, retention, public protection and the ability of the service to manage the changes coming in October, explain the connection.
I’m perfectly prepared to listen to an argument I disagree with, but “you’ll never listen” isn’t actually an argument. Neither is simply declaring the service misandrist.
If you think probation systematically treats male service users differently because they are men, give us the evidence and explain what you think should change. That’s a discussion worth having. But I’m struggling to see how it answers the immediate question here: what is Napo going to do with a 90.76% vote for potential industrial action at precisely the moment government needs probation to deliver its sentencing reforms?
I'd suggest it aint so much misandry per se, but a generic dislike/hatred of those sent to be supervised - a tranche of the population which just happens to be predominantly men. The media, hmpps, politicians et al speak ill of the criminal classes; new probation has simply absorbed that attitude.
DeleteWilliam Gibson’s quote is very apt here . “When you want to know how things really work, study them when they’re coming apart.” HMPPS must cease their navel gazing and their miss assumption that they actually know what they are doing. They now need to honestly assess the what and the how Probation which resulted in the implosion of Probation Service and meaningfully consult with officers doing the work at the coalface as to solutions. Classic case of arrogance by management. The frontline officers know what the problems are and they know the solutions. But HMPPS senior management’s arrogance and we know everything and officers must know their place and know sh#t all has led to this. And they are still in denial- reminds me of modern day poisonous fairytales.
DeleteThis action is VERY important. When the inevitable SFOs happen in this shit show and frontline staff are blamed, it will be remembered that this government ploughed through despite us raising our concerns.
DeleteWhile not participating in a local Wats Ap group in an office in the North I was shown an exchange on it recently in which one group consisting of 99% female was very much misandrist in tone and which rhetoric was extreme in its suggestions of punishment towards male clients indicating such a dislike for the men they work with. While this may not be representative and like most of these groups led by the loudest voices, not once did the notion of rehabilitation raise its head……..isn’t that part of our core belief system?
Deletehttps://www.channel4.com/news/realities-of-early-release-puts-public-in-danger-probation-officers
ReplyDeleteGovernment will 'continue to negotiate' with probation officers who could strike over early release scheme
ReplyDeleteProbation officers voted overwhelmingly to potentially go on strike over workload pressures and the early release scheme, which could cause a major headache for the PM later this year when around 5,000 prisoners are set to be freed early to ease overcrowding.
Government minister Anna Turley told Sky News: "We'll continue to negotiate with them.
"The justice secretary last year put in over £700 million of extra money to support probation services. They've also had a pay increase this year.
"So it's really important that we look to make sure that they've got the support that they need. We'll continue that negotiation. The justice secretary I know will be continuing to work with them.
"But we have invested heavily in probation because it's really important, particularly in the context of the early release scheme, that we're giving them all the resources and support they need to keep the public safe." From Sky News.
There has not been a pay increase this year there are ‘ongoing negotiations’ according to update yesterday and then an offer will be made. It is always at least 6-9 months late, those on the top scale get nothing whilst all those behind get rise after rise. Professional Registration and Competency Framework is a load of tosh, no body recognises the registration it will be years before it is on par with other professions. I am just biding my time to make my resignation hit hard and at a point my manager will feel the pressure as they continue to pile the complex cases on to keep their friends in a comfortable zone. As for a strike it will never happen the govt will take legal action to prevent it, it is a token threat, been there, seen it and got the T-shirt during TR.
"They've also had a pay increase this year." - No, that was LAST year's pay rise, over a year late! So they think we're fucking idiots?
DeleteI’m glad Martin Jones said this.
ReplyDelete"Electronic tagging has been talked about as a key part of the arrangement but actually all that provides you with is information to inform their understanding of what is going on and then to act upon that when necessary, and I'm not sure the systems are there and robust enough to assist the probation officer when they're doing their work," Jones said.
"I've previously said that it would be a good idea to look at the overall workload of probation and consider what are the essential things that they need to be doing, not what's desirable."
"It's a matter of desirable work that I want the probation service to be doing.
"But with a probation service that probably has a vacancy rate of 20-25%, what can they realistically do."
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c39e3y1y2zjo
Ref the comments on misandry.
ReplyDeleteDoes it all tie together?
The feminisation of the workforce, the decree that male officers should not work with females under supervision, but no similar directive in the opposite direction. The eradication of terms and conditions over a lengthy period, the loss of professional identity and a general malaise within probation.
I can understand why many of the newer recruits are uncomfortable with, ‘Advise, Assist and Befriend,’ because they are dealing with men who have committed offences which are directed at females but who are not typical of the population as a whole.
On the positive side, staff across the board have finally voted to stand up for themselves and to press home their advantage in the face of threats, lies and intimidation from the employers.
Lets all work together on this one and work towards a common goal.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c39e3y1y2zjo
ReplyDeleteProbation officers in 'state of panic'
DeleteProbation officers help former prisoners with housing, employment and access to benefits once in the community, and help protect the public by assessing the risk of further offending.
Their workload will increase substantially when more offenders - some of whom will have been convicted of violent offences - are released months earlier than planned as part of the Sentencing Act.
According to the chief inspector, probation caseload has increased by 8% over the last two years.
Much of that is down to a separate early release scheme which was implemented in 2024 after prisons nearly reached full capacity.
That scheme has led to tens of thousands of offenders being let out sooner.
When asked what risk the additional early releases due to start in the autumn could pose to the public, Jones said "that could be a serious sexual or violent offence or even murder".
One probation officer told the BBC the upcoming releases had put him and his colleagues into "a state of panic".
"We can't cope with this - we've been saying that to anybody who will listen.
"At the minute I think it's pure panic in terms of where we're at. I don't understand how there can be this level of pressure put on us.
"The worst that can happen is that things are missed, plans aren't put into place and we don't give people the level of service they need and that leads to serious further offences.
"That leads to death under supervision."
In a statement, an MoJ spokesperson said the department had exceeded its recruitment target for last year, with 1,389 trainee probation officers starting.
The spokesperson said this is "making sure the Probation Service has the resource it needs to keep dangerous offenders under closer surveillance than ever before".
"The Sentencing Act is restoring order to a prison system left on the brink of collapse, while our record £700m investment in probation and community punishment is ensuring staff have the resources, powers, and technology they need to manage offenders safely in the community," the spokesperson added.
On Tuesday, probation officers voted in favour of strike action over the scheme, with probation union Napo saying 90% of its members had backed potential industrial action.
Delete"This ballot wasn't about members being too busy," Napo national chair Ben Cockburn said.
"It was professionals warning they cannot protect the public properly when there are not enough people to do the work."
The MoJ said it was "disappointed" by the ballot outcome.
Inspectorate reports published between January and March 2026 highlight staffing gaps in probation, a lack of experience, significant issues with information sharing, as well as "the burden placed on overstretched staff by large-scale change programmes".
As of March, there were 5,554 full-time equivalent probation officers, a shortfall of 1,556 against the target staffing level of 7,110.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said there will be a presumption that all offenders released as part of the new laws will be tagged and have longer periods of supervision.
This will mean more responsibility on probation staff.
"Electronic tagging has been talked about as a key part of the arrangement but actually all that provides you with is information to inform their understanding of what is going on and then to act upon that when necessary, and I'm not sure the systems are there and robust enough to assist the probation officer when they're doing their work," Jones said.
"I've previously said that it would be a good idea to look at the overall workload of probation and consider what are the essential things that they need to be doing, not what's desirable."
"It's a matter of desirable work that I want the probation service to be doing.
"But with a probation service that probably has a vacancy rate of 20-25%, what can they realistically do."
On Tuesday, the prime minister said he was "increasingly confident" that work to add space in the prison system "will allow us to reduce the number of people released early".
It comes as Burnham is facing growing pressure to ensure the killers of PC Andrew Harper are not released as part of the scheme.
Downing Street had earlier warned it would not be possible to exclude "one or two offenders" convicted of manslaughter from early release.
But after an outcry, Burnham ordered the justice secretary to find a way to bar Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers from the scheme, and the prime minister has now said he is "confident" they can be excluded.
The letter welcomed the prime minister's intervention, adding: "This provides an opportunity not only to examine every lawful avenue in PC Andrew Harper's case, but to ensure similar concerns do not arise again."
https://insidetime.org/newsround/probation-reset-needs-rethink-say-moj-research-team/
DeleteWhy has no one mentioned to the media that the WMT is conveniently being scrapped at the same the earlier releases will be happening!!!!
ReplyDeleteAnna Turley’s response rather neatly demonstrates the problem.
ReplyDeleteProbation professionals raise serious concerns about whether the service has the capacity to manage increased risk safely and the government response is: £700m, recruitment, pay and negotiations.
But those headlines need interrogating.
How much of the £700m is actually being spent on frontline staffing and retaining experienced practitioners, rather than tagging, technology and other initiatives? How many of the much-publicised recruits are trainees rather than qualified PPs? How many experienced PPs are leaving while those trainees are coming through? And if the 2026 pay award is still being negotiated, why is a government minister telling the public that probation staff have already “had a pay increase this year”?
This is precisely why frontline voices matter.
The ballot isn’t important simply because probation might strike. It is important because practitioners are formally recording, before the October changes happen, that they believe workload and capacity have reached a point where public protection may be compromised.
Government cannot subsequently claim it wasn’t warned.
And that warning shouldn’t be filed away until an SFO provides the horrible retrospective evidence that everybody hopes never comes. It should trigger serious examination now of whether the service actually has the qualified workforce, experience, management capacity and community resources necessary to deliver what ministers are promising the public.
The £700m figure cannot simply be repeated every time probation raises a concern as though saying a large number answers the question.
Tell us where it is going. Tell us how many experienced PPs are being retained. Tell us what qualified staffing will actually look like in October. Tell us what additional workload “tougher supervision” creates and who is going to carry it.
And most importantly, listen to the people doing the work before something goes wrong, rather than investigating why they didn’t manage the impossible afterwards.
Desperation?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly5pj0qyd4o
'Getafix
The Estonian government has rejected the idea of taking prisoners from the UK to help ease the overcrowding crisis in British jails.
DeleteJustice Minister Liisa Pakosta told the BBC Estonia would not rent jail cells to other countries while it was housing criminals from Sweden in its half-empty Tartu prison under a deal signed last week.
The Conservatives and Reform UK have both suggested renting cells in foreign prisons, including in Estonia, to free up space and prevent the early releases of some offenders in England and Wales.
The Labour government also explored the idea in 2024 but talks with Estonia came to nothing.
Pakosta said Estonia had received no proposals to rent its prison space from the UK, adding that if one was to be made "our answer would be unequivocal - in Margaret Thatcher's famous words: No. No. No."
She added: "Such a proposal would not merely be mistaken, misguided or unacceptable; it would deserve to be rejected outright."
Thatcher memorably repeated "no" three times in 1990 speech, as she fiercely rejected calls for deeper political and economic integration of the European Community, which later evolved into the European Union.
In 2024, the Labour government, when Sir Keir Starmer was prime minister, held talks with Estonia to discuss the Baltic state's policy to house some prisoners from abroad.
Pakosta previously told the BBC she had met then-UK Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood in Lithuania.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham's government is planning to release thousands of prisoners early this October, as it scrambles to free up space in jails almost at 100% capacity.
On Monday, Downing Street did not rule out renting space in foreign prisons, when asked by reporters if the government was considering doing so.
A No 10 spokesperson said the government was focused on "creating that extra capacity within the system domestically".
"In terms of renting prison places abroad, it's just not a quick fix," the spokesperson added.
"It will require primary legislation underpinned by a complex international agreement which would take several years to agree."
A government source told the BBC that renting foreign prison space would not help with the short-term crisis in jails.
Burnham has ordered the justice secretary to come up with a plan to create more space in jails by September.
He said the plan would be based on removing more foreign national offenders from prisons, releasing some offenders on indefinite sentences, and using space in women's jails for male inmates.
Even if prisoners are to be housed in foreign prisons, they are still being released back to the UK to a minimum 12mthsof post sentence supervision and any recall will be to a UK prison. It only delays the inevitable, kicking the can down the road.
DeleteSurely its obvious to most that the problem is not about how to increase the amount of prisoners that can be released early, its about reducing the number that is being sent to prison in the first place?
'Getafix
Recalls to prison overtake releases
ReplyDeleteInside Time Reports 3rd August 2026
Recalls to prison overtake releases
The number of times people are being recalled to prison has overtaken the number of releases, according to official figures.
During the first three months of 2026, 12,977 people were released from prisons in England and Wales but 13,193 were recalled for breaching the terms of their release licence – a recall rate of 101 per cent. It was the first time the recall rate had exceeded 100 per cent.
Only 22 per cent of the recalls were because the individual was suspected of committing a further crime. The rest were for other reasons such as ‘non-compliance’ or ‘failure to keep in touch’, including people who miss probation meetings.
The number of people recalled to prison between January and March 2026 was 32 per cent higher than during the equivalent period in 2025. The BBC published a bar chart (above), based on Ministry of Justice data, illustrating how the number of recalls has doubled over the past five years.
The MoJ pointed out that the release and recall totals are not directly comparable, because the same person might be recalled more than once during the measurement period. Nevertheless, the figures highlighted the strict approach being taken by probation officers and the resulting additional pressure on prison capacity.
MoJ statisticians pointed to two factors which could be driving the rise in recall admissions:
Early release schemes, such as Labour’s SDS40 scheme, which have resulted in more offenders being out in the community on licence rather than in prison;
The replacement of most ‘standard recalls’, in which recalled prisoners remained in jail until the end of their sentence or until the Parole Board approved their release, with fixed-term recalls – meaning that an individual may be recalled repeatedly.
During the year ending March 2026 there were 51,419 licence recalls, compared with 40,259 in the previous 12-month period – an increase of 28 per cent.
Andy Keen-Downs, Chief Executive Officer of the Prison Advice and Care Trust (PACT), said: “The prison population crisis will not be solved if as many people are being sent back to prison as are leaving it.
“Recall is an important tool for protecting the public, and where someone presents a genuine risk of harm there must always be a swift response. However, hundreds of people are recalled every month not because they have committed new offences, but because they have fallen foul of licence conditions. This makes little sense at a time when the Government is doing everything it can to reduce pressure on the prison system.
“The concerns of victims and the wider public must be taken into account. However, in the current circumstances reversing the implementation of the Sentencing Act could see prison places run out by Christmas. Addressing this issue of unnecessary recalls would be a good place to start for incoming ministers looking to reduce pressure on prisons. That means adopting a more proportionate approach to licence breaches, as well as investing in the practical support that prison leavers need to lead stable, crime-free lives after release.”
Alex Hewson, a spokesperson for the Prison Reform Trust, said: “Many leave prison facing challenges such as addiction, poor mental health and unstable housing, making compliance with licence conditions difficult.”
The MoJ defended the rise in recalls. A spokesperson said that “public protection is our priority”, saying that the figures “show that we do not hesitate to recall offenders to prison when the risk escalates”.
Probation supervision from a desk or on the phone does not beat the time before TR when you would get out and about and track non-compliant individuals down and find out what was going on. I still get challenged by management for going out looking for my caseload and not sitting at my desk ticking boxes.
this whole debacle is mirroring the crisis behind the debacle, i.e. there's no concrete thread, no collaboration, no co-ordination. The only consistent message is £700million to probation (a known lie) & a pay rise (belatedly for 2025, not this year)... everyone else is fragmented, diluted & seemingly at odds with each other.
ReplyDeleteBut hmpps are united in their belligerent lies & misdirections.
Its the same dance we've been having for decades, with any amount of disparate , desperate voices creating a directionless cacophony; meantime the message from 'the centre' - however misguided, untrue or ridiculous - is solid & unwavering irrespective of who opens their flappy trap to let "seven hundred million" fall out.
hmip's jones seems to be the go-to boy for probation, but he's got one foot in whitehall, so is limited.
Its TR2.4. No-one is listening & no-one gives a flying fuck about probation. Why?
Because they've been shown to be useless by hmip inspections, (allegedly) pre-loaded with £700million AND they've had a pay rise (facts omitted to disguise reality)
the chief probation officer has yet to speak up for the service (where the fuck is she @ £100k a year?)
No credible attack by the unions
And the worst is yet to come
Jones just picks fault with Probation Officers anyone above is untouchable he always talks about the strength of leadership, but he is totally inept, there is no leadership, there is just a bunch of probation ‘yes we can do that dictators’ nobody has broken ranks to support staff they just want to get up the greasy pole and so many managers have been promoted because they are no use as probation officers and are now an even bigger danger to their colleagues. The probation service is finished everyone will be in uniform soon as part of HMPS in the Community!
ReplyDeleteHm Correctional Services has been discussed at the highest level and requires the removal of the probation name as stated above
DeleteFrom Twitter:-
ReplyDelete"After TR and 2022 I really thought things would get better it hasn’t. The only time this Government will care is when there is no more PO’s left and they finally realise actually PO’s are essential we need to respect and hear them more. Left the Probation service 3 years ago after 7 years and it was the best thing I ever did. No one has mentioned it because they don’t care, they have never cared about PO’s it’s actually heartbreaking watching former colleagues going through this still. You all need to leave."
The push has been on for years to get rid of PO’s they tried it with different terms OM(Q), OM, OS, practitioners which gets rid of PO terminology the qualified. We have POM and COM despite wanting to get rid of labelling. Those in CRC’s promoted buffoons into management roles, then again there were several buffoons allocated out of the NPS. When it reemerged we ended up with senior managers and SPO’s who were as effective as a chocolate fireguard. The experienced staff have left in their droves, I have never wanted promotion, to monitor sick and allocate leave, my current SPO does not even appreciate ROSH! I joined to work with people and I still think that I am good at that. I still do home visits, lunch break meetings and the off late night visit after someone finishes work(don’t tell the boss, but then again she will be out with the wine club power dressers who can tell a good supervision tale) but have more recalls than active cases. The training has reduced significantly, it is all about protective factors, dumbing down with colourful diagrams and upholding complaints from the punters when you make them report twice a week as High risk. The pressure from within to rescore to medium and then the challenges you see colleagues face from prison and the parole board for not addressing risk effectively. One colleague was extremely embarrassed when the POM pointed out that the SPO had signed off on the wrong punters name due to cut and paste! The pressure is relentless both outside and in, people are at work one day then off for three months come back and then find a job as a ticket inspector on the tube or even as a driver. I stand by my principles, my professional judgement and sometimes empathy. I am quite successful, my SPO hates the push back over recalls and breaches but to date I am getting the job done, but for how long I don’t know, might have to take a six month off for a knee replacement! Keep
DeleteUp the good work with the blog, and don’t mention PPCS and the Parole Board you will never get rid of me!
Annually there is over 50,000 recalls.
ReplyDeleteThat represents more then 50% of the overall prison populatio as it stands.
Maybe theres a great big problem to be looked at there?
'Getafix
Like I've said before, probation is getting too complicated, the amount of licence conditions we now have (and they're due to add more shortly!) and are instructed by the disaster that is Epf to include on the licence means offenders are so much more likely to have a technical breach. Having a couple extra on top if the 7 or 8 standard ones used to be the norm, but many licences I see now have up to 20!
DeleteI think the fear of SFOs is a big reason for the recalls
DeleteYes @ 21.55 and those completing them have no empathy or understanding for the PO involved and most were poor at doing the role of PO themselves and got out or were encouraged to apply.
DeleteGuardian 11/08/26:-
ReplyDeleteAndy Burnham’s pledge to end rough sleeping in England is under threat from a failure to find accommodation for a growing number of newly released prisoners, a charity has said.
An analysis by the social justice charity Nacro has found that nearly one in six people leaving jail in England and Wales last year were released into homelessness, reaching the highest rate for five years.
Between April 2025 and March 2026, 15,155 people freed from prison had no housing – equivalent to 300 people every week and an 18% increase on the previous year.
In a bold pledge in his first speech as prime minister, Burnham promised to eradicate rough sleeping in England, allocating an extra £340m of funding over three years.
Since then, he has been forced to sign off the early release from October of about 5,000 prisoners, including domestic abusers and two of the killers of PC Andrew Harper.
Enver Solomon, the chief executive of Nacro, said the proportion of prison leavers released without accommodation had increased every year for five years, from 10.6% in 2021-22 to 15.9% in 2025-26.
“To deliver on the prime minister’s pledge to end rough sleeping, there must be an urgent focus on reducing homelessness after prison,” he said.
“The consequences are clear: three in four people released to rough sleeping reoffend within a year, compared with just over a third of those released into accommodation. A safe home isn’t just somewhere to sleep – it’s one of the strongest foundations for reducing reoffending and keeping communities safe.”
Prisons and the probation service have a duty to refer offenders to a local authority if they are at risk of homelessness, which means either living on the streets, squatting or relying on night shelters.
The total number of people released from prison has been rising, in part because of early release schemes, but the proportion released into homelessness has outpaced this.
More than 1,300 women were released into homelessness or rough sleeping in 2025-26, a 27% increase on the previous year.
Government figures also provide a regional breakdown of the number of prisoners released into homelessness. South-central England – which covers Hampshire, the Isle of Wight, Berkshire, Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire – has the highest rate, at 20.7%, followed by the East Midlands at 19.1%, and the east of England at 18.4%. Wales has the lowest percentage released into homelessness, at 11.1%.
In his annual report last month, Charlie Taylor, the chief inspector of prisons, found that many prisons reported up to 30% of prisoners had no settled address, that prisoners were often released directly from court without access to services, and that short sentences and recalls often lasting 14 days had made housing planning difficult.
A report in December by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government found there was inadequate training and awareness of prisoners’ needs among housing staff, that support was often fragmented and that much of the available accommodation was substandard.
Government sources confirmed on Monday night that officials were still examining whether they could block the release of Harper’s killers.
DeleteThey are looking at ways to keep Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers in prison. The pair were jailed for 13 years in 2020 for manslaughter. Henry Long, the main perpetrator, will not be subject to early release.
Burnham announced last week that rapists, groomers and those who had committed serious child sexual offences would be excluded from the policy.
In the national plan to end homelessness, published last December, the government committed to halving the proportion of offenders on probation who became homeless on their first night out of prison.
A government spokesperson said: “This government inherited a prison system on the brink of collapse and a homelessness crisis, with rough sleeping having more than doubled since 2010.
“We know that reoffending rates among homeless offenders are roughly twice those in stable accommodation, which is why we’re working with local councils and charities to halve prison leaver homelessness by 2029.
“More broadly, the prime minister has announced a new national effort to end rough sleeping, backed by investment of an additional £340m – taking overall funding to record levels.”
@11:56 The comment about the WMT is really important and you're right it seems to have been almost completely absent from the media coverage.
ReplyDeleteGovernment is telling the public that the October releases will be made safer through “tougher community supervision”, increased tagging, longer supervision and closer monitoring.
At virtually the same time, HMPPS is removing practitioner access to the Workload Measurement Tool.
Whatever its imperfections, the WMT at least gave PP and SPO a shared, objective reference point for workload and capacity. HMPPS has already acknowledged that the tool failed to capture all the work practitioners were actually doing. Yet instead of improving it, the percentage disappears and workload allocation becomes increasingly dependent on dashboards, discussion and SPO judgement.
So government is simultaneously increasing the amount of risk and information PPs are expected to manage while removing one of the few objective mechanisms they had for evidencing that they had reached capacity.
How is that not part of the public protection debate?
If a PP says, “I cannot safely take another complex case,” and their SPO disagrees, what objective measure now settles that disagreement?
This becomes even more concerning when electronic monitoring is expanded. A tag does not manage risk. It produces information. Somebody has to receive that information, interpret it, link it to everything else known about the person and decide whether action is required. That is additional workload, not additional capacity.
If “tougher supervision” is the government’s reassurance to the public, then surely October is precisely the moment when transparent workload measurement should be strengthened, not removed.
I think the real reason the workload management is going is because they all know that everyone's scores will go through the roof come October . Great way to gaslight staff when they are struggling. And to fool the media into thinking we can cope with the extra work coming our way! Victims, future victims and their loved ones don't deserve what's coming.
DeleteThis is the bit I keep coming back to. Whatever the stated rationale for removing the WMT, the timing could hardly be more convenient.
DeleteOctober brings increased supervision, more tagging, more information to interpret and potentially significantly more work. What would those WMT percentages look like once that lands?
Remove the objective indicator and suddenly organisational overload becomes a subjective conversation about whether an individual PP is “coping”.
Prison capacity is measured, quantified and treated as an emergency when it approaches its limit. Why should probation capacity become less measurable at precisely the point government is relying on it more?
And this isn’t just about protecting staff. Victims, potential future victims and their families deserve to know that the people being asked to manage risk actually have the capacity to do it safely.
If an SFO occurs, every decision made by the PP will be scrutinised. Who will be able to demonstrate objectively what workload that PP was carrying when those decisions were made?
I think PPs will be thrown under the bus when the SFOs happens. When the PP says I was stressed and overworked. HMPPS will say "well you could of rang PAM Assist, taken up yoga, mindfulness and sniffed lavender."
Delete"well, you could *have* rung PAM assist..."
Deleteeven our language & grammar is being abused
The homelessness figures make the whole contradiction impossible to ignore.
ReplyDeleteThe government says it wants to end rough sleeping, reduce reoffending, relieve prison overcrowding and make early release safer through tougher probation supervision.
Yet nearly one in six people leaving prison are being released homeless.
How exactly is probation supposed to deliver “tougher supervision” when someone has nowhere stable to live?
Housing instability makes appointments harder to keep, treatment harder to access, employment harder to sustain and licence compliance more difficult. That in turn increases the likelihood of breach and recall, which puts people straight back into the prison system government is desperately trying to relieve.
So the cycle becomes: overcrowded prisons, earlier release, inadequate support in the community, recall, overcrowded prisons again.
This isn’t a prison problem, a probation problem or a homelessness problem in isolation. It is one system feeding another.
Until the government joins those dots and invests in the infrastructure around probation - housing, mental health, addiction services, experienced staff and realistic workloads - it will keep announcing solutions that simply move the pressure from one part of the system to another.
Has anyone given a rational explanation as to WHO took the decision to prevent us looking at the WMT…….and can we have the CPOs understanding as to why this has happened……this was the last chance we had to compare workloads……will someone at the top provide the explanation as to WHY this is being removed?
ReplyDeleteThey don’t want you to know about the unfair distribution of cases within a team, who has 25 against who has 40, who had a protected caseload and who doesn’t. Who is the SPOs best friend with all the nice easy cases, who backs the SPO up in the team meetings who would meet the SPOs backside face on in the case of an emergency stop!! We all know those that do the work and the office shirkers but the bullying and intimidation from management is relentless on behalf of their friends. Shocking how many NQO’s are in teams where experienced professionals are under the cosh with high risk complex cases, big brother does not want you aware.
DeleteDon't understand why they couldn't keep the WMT but allow you to see your own workload level and not others, if those at top are worried about comparing.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.gov.uk/government/publications/probation-service-public-protection-inspection-action-plans
ReplyDeletehttps://hmiprobation.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/document/dynamic-inspection-of-public-protection-in-wales-2026/
Scoring
Does assessment focus sufficiently on keeping other people safe? 40% = yes
Does planning focus sufficiently on keeping other people safe? 64%
Does the implementation and delivery of services effectively support the safety of other people? 44%
Does reviewing focus sufficiently on keeping other people safe? 47%
"Our inspection of public protection work in Wales found a region with clear ambition, strong leadership, and a coherent vision for improvement... Leadership was visible, collaborative, and focused on improvement... However, these improvements were not yet translating consistently into effective practice."
Compared with the utterly shyte scores previously published across Eng & Wales, its almost tempting to think 40% is a great score.
Recall rates (12 months prior to inspection) 25.71%
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prison-public-protection-policy-framework
ReplyDeleteThis Policy Framework applies to HMPPS staff, public sector prisons, the Youth Custody Service (YCS) and privately-managed prisons; including,
all permanent and temporary employees and contractors
the Probation Service, particularly staff who are completing assessments on prisoners who should have an awareness of public protection controls and restrictions in prisons.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a70951faec8358a34958bd5/tprs36-operational-guidance.pdf
ReplyDelete"This document introduces a further revision to the Temporary Presumptive Re- categorisation Scheme (TPRS) that will allow for certain prisoners in the adult male estate to be presumptively re-categorised to category D up to 36 months ahead of their conditional release date (CRD). This will be known as TPRS36." Or... fiddling while Rome burns.
independent paper: "Metropolitan Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley has strongly criticized the Probation Service, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS), and the wider court system following catastrophic institutional failures that left a high-risk predator free to commit double murder."
ReplyDeleteWas it the apparently absent CPO who gave the green light to remove the WMT, if so, have the courage of your convictions and let us know your thinking…….
ReplyDelete