Strong indications now that Lammy, not regarded by anyone as the sharpest tool in the box, is heading towards the back benches or even out of government entirely. Game over. Will the Justice shakeup see ministers such as Kiers buddy Timpson also ousted? Very likely. It is currently unconfirmed who will replace Lammy, or if he will be retained in Burnham's government at all. While some say he’ll be one of the first to get his marching orders on 20/07 others say his future at the Ministry of Justice is a subject of heavy speculation regarding how fast he is removed so he may be left hanging about whilst negotiations regarding his replacement proceed or policies are scrapped as a fall guy. Burnham is reportedly planning to scrap some of Lammy's recent policies, including the curbs on the right to trial by jury and the early release scheme aimed at easing prison capacity. Better to remove him rather than force him into humiliating U-turns.
Given these policy clashes, a change in leadership at the Ministry of Justice seems highly likely. The incoming cabinet appointments will be critical to watch, as they will undoubtedly signal a significant shift in the department's strategic and operational direction. The approach to AI and technology may see significant changes with much hyped MoJ Justice Digital and Justice AI being seen as expensive failed centralised projects the very opposite of the new decentralised approach. Burnham is for example is said to favour devolved more locally accountable Probation Services developing their own initiatives as appropriate that may see prison and probation regions playing more of a role. What is certain is that he will want to get a firmer grip on Justice with Thornberry rumoured to be first among several people being considered as a smarter upgrade who will want to have a good clear out. Streeting and Jarvis also mentioned as possible options if they do not land plum jobs elsewhere. You heard it here first.
Whether David Lammy stays or goes is, in many ways, secondary.
ReplyDeleteStreeting and Jarvis have reputations as reformers and effective operators, while Thornberry is an experienced minister. But none has yet set out a clear vision for probation, so it is difficult to judge whether any would bring the fundamental change the service needs.
Probation has now been through successive governments of different political colours, multiple Secretaries of State and a succession of senior HMPPS leaders. Yet the themes remain remarkably consistent: excessive workloads, loss of experienced staff, constant organisational change, restructuring before previous reforms have embedded, and a tendency to announce new initiatives before fixing the fundamentals.
A new Justice Secretary may change the rhetoric and alter some policies. They may even abandon others. But unless they are prepared to tackle the underlying issues of manageable workloads, staff retention, professional autonomy, training, realistic funding and confidence in frontline expertise, we risk simply changing the names at the top while expecting the same overstretched workforce to deliver different results.
Probation doesn’t need another reinvention. It needs stability, honesty about capacity, and the time and trust for practitioners to do the job they were trained to do.
If there is to be a “cause for hope”, I hope it comes from a willingness to listen to those delivering probation every day, rather than another top-down redesign of the service.
Yet they keep on re cycling the meme that we all have such excellent leaders…….so why are we in the current mess of unmanageable caseloads, managerial bullying, still not paying us what we are worth, APs struggling for staff and the rehabilitate ethic removed from what we do only to be replaced by knee jerk, red top policy making……
ReplyDeleteFor all the endless talk from McEwen, Sarah Chand etc, etc about how much they value staff wellbeing and how this is more important than targets, this just isn't translating to PDU Heads, Dep Heads and most SPO's. This level of management just care about hitting targets and looking good, they are the ones with the ability to make or break teams and individuals and unfortunately in the area I work in they are more adept at breaking staff to hit targets. If Officer and admin are going off sick and getting new jobs at such a high rate these are the people who need to be investigated to identify bullying, micromanaging and poor people skills. A wellbeing cake sale does not cut mustard
ReplyDeleteIf the NPS cared about staff well-being they wouldn't get rid of the WMT.
DeleteJust watched Andy Burnham deliver his leadership speech.
ReplyDeleteIt was interesting to see who he paid homage to.
Neil Kinnock who expelled socialist activists from the party in the hope of bolstering his election aspirations and whose son was amongst the first to turn on Jeremy Corbyn when he became party leader.
David Blunkett, right wing architect of the IPP sentence and possibly the worst Home Secretary in my years in the probation service and The Right Honourable Margaret Beckett another time server resistant to progressive politics.
It seems that the more things change, the more they stay the same.
burnham's vowed to speed up the planet's death spiral with his uk version of drill baby drill... he's not fresh air, he's another bliar, a right of centre bully wrapped in a traitor's cloak.
DeleteWell we are about to get another PM who was not the party leader when the government were elected. We have had several successive PM’s who have failed to deliver anything and the last one has overseen a fiasco of early releases and standby for a big push back with the next tranches that are coming because a lot of high profile cases will be the focus of everything that is wrong in this country and it’s CJS. HMPPS just let everyone run all over them and there is no push back my senior management just further rolling over and putting operational staff under greater pressure and risk. Not my PM is another disaster on his way, he is not bound by the election manifesto he will bring his own and ride rough shod over those of us in full time employment to distribute our cash to the feckless, lazy and unemployable. Just wait for all the increased benefits for those jumping on to the neurodiversity bandwagon. Another winter of discontent is on the horizon, more SFO’s are looming and just remember if it is YOU, then you are on your own. There is no knight on a white charger coming to save probation, probation as many of us knew it is done, you just have to look at the crayon exercise which is the ARNS sentence plan, the professionalism that once saw distinctive objective planning has become replaced by the Janet and John book of sentence management and the assessment process for new staff is ridiculous. The prison service are open about how many staff are sacked because of illicit relationships with prisoners, the probation service hide it. NPS will make you attend professional standards briefings, re-signing IT compacts, dish out loads of bollocks about PAM assist, resilience and speaking to your line manager if you are struggling. If you are lucky you may get some cases reallocated to the people who manage their caseloads effectively, with no recognition for them apart from they can handle it. The BMW X5 in the car park is more likely to belong to a manager or offender than it is to a PO!
ReplyDeleteSpot on 15:24…….but will anyone listen? The increasing use of the SFO investigation to find individual fault rather than the systemic fault finding it was created for, continues at pace. In September we will again be swamped by those who should not be released early and is down to us and us alone to take the blame should things go wrong. The SFO ‘investigation’ has become nothing but a witch hunt and a convenient hook on which to hang the practitioner so that reputational harm is protected at any cost….
ReplyDelete‘The approach to Al and technology may see significant changes with much hyped MoJ Justice Digital and Justice Al being seen as expensive failed centralised projects the very opposite of the new decentralised approach. Burnham is for’. Whoever the contributor was certainly has a handle on Burnham’s tech policy. Big shakeup anticipated that is likely to stall the drive towards AI and tech in probation. Less money for AI. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/18/burnham-plan-to-scrap-technology-department-triggers-backlash?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
ReplyDeleteAndy Burnham’s plan to scrap the government’s technology department has triggered an angry backlash from MPs, Whitehall officials and tech experts.
DeleteThe incoming prime minister has asked officials to draw up plans to abolish the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology as part of a wider Whitehall shake-up.
The plans have not yet been signed off, but they are causing significant disquiet among experts inside and outside government.
The backlash comes amid concerns in the Labour party about some of Burnham’s early decisions, including the likely appointment of Shabana Mahmood as chancellor.
Matt Clifford, an adviser on AI to the outgoing prime minister, Keir Starmer, and his predecessor, Rishi Sunak, posted on X: “This would be a big mistake. Right now is a critical moment for tech as an economic and national security issue. Tying up our most senior science and tech officials in a [reorganisation] wastes time and energy that’s desperately needed for the actual substance.”
One Labour MP referred to the plans as “getting rid of the department of the future”.
Sources familiar with the plans say Burnham’s advisers asked officials to work up plans to hand over much of science and technology policy to a more powerful business department, to be led by the chief whip, Jonathan Reynolds.
Responsibility for overseeing the use of AI in the public sector would be given to the cabinet secretary, Antonia Romeo, rather than a minister.
People within the technology sector have reacted with alarm, saying AI and advanced technology are likely to dominate many of the government’s policy decisions over the next few years.
Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, recently said she thought AI would be the major foreign policy question of the next two years.
In a speech last year, Starmer called AI “the defining opportunity of our generation”.
AI enthusiasts point to the success of the British company DeepMind, which was bought by Google in 2014, as evidence the UK can play a global role in the sector.
Others, however, say the recent US tech deal signed by Starmer shows the British AI industry is at risk of turning into a subsidiary of the American tech sector.
Dom Hallas, the executive director of the Startup Coalition, posted on X: “Changes to DSIT (which I’ve been getting calls about) would be a mistake.”
He added: “A mega [business] department would mean British tech competing with British steel for attention. And waste 6 months reorg-ing when time is of the essence. Not good.”
Barney Hussey-Yeo, a technology investor, said he was sad about the possible closure.
“The UK has a major competitive advantage in its scientific capacity,” he said on X. “Turning that strength into economic power – DSIT’s job – would be my idée fixe as prime minister.”
Burnham’s team is finalising their plans for government over the weekend in preparation for Monday, when the MP for Makerfield will officially take over as prime minister.
Burnham will spend Monday afternoon making his most significant cabinet appointments, before making a series of policy announcements later in the week.
Those announcements are likely to include a cost of living package that could involve action to reduce the costs of housing, energy and transport.
Some in the tech industry believe Burnham may rethink his idea of closing the department over the next 48 hours.
A spokesperson for the next prime minister did not respond to a request to comment.
https://hmiprobation.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/document/artificial-intelligence-in-probation/
Delete"The use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the criminal justice system has grown substantially in recent years, with examples of AI found at almost every stage of the criminal process. This Academic Insights paper examines the current and potential future adoption of AI in the Probation Service, considering the benefits that AI can bring, as well as the risks and challenges presented by its use in this context.
DeleteThis paper has outlined the risks arising from an increased use of AI, particularly risk assessments and LLMs, in the Probation Service, detailing concerns about: bias, discrimination and privacy; lack of transparency and over-reliance on AI; and issues around due process and accountability. Taking into account these risks, as well as the potential benefits if a proper assessment is carried out to enable the appropriate integration of AI, this paper recommends a bespoke responsible AI framework for Probation, which could be adapted from the NPCC Responsible AI Checklist (2025) and which should then be published. This could help to ensure the best quality decision-making in a high-stakes environment, maximising benefits and minimising risks."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cwymljn8y10o?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-gb
ReplyDeleteAs the full-time whistle blew in Atlanta on Wednesday, signalling England's exit from the World Cup, a wave of disappointment spread across the country. But for some, there was a very different emotion growing inside.
DeleteDomestic abuse rises by 26% when England play and by 38% when they lose, according to research by Lancaster University.
During a major football tournament such as the World Cup, some women and girls are constantly living in fear.
Rebecca Goshawk, who works at domestic abuse charity Solace, was watching the semi-final against Argentina. "We know that there'll be survivors and victims frightened of their partners coming home and worried about what that might mean for them and their safety," she said.
"They're being shouted at. They're being belittled. They're being told they're useless. It can be as strong as physical violence against women, whether that's being hit or kicked.
"For very few women will this be a one-off experience, because of a football tournament. It'll be a pattern that they're used to."
300 domestic abuse offences during Euro 2024
Violence towards women and girls after football matches is a recurring issue. The National Police Chiefs' Council released data showing that more than 300 domestic abuse offences were reported to police during Euro 2024, where victims believed the perpetrator's behaviour was linked to football.
Statistics covering the period involving the 2026 World Cup will not be available for some time, but Goshawk says rates of misogyny and domestic abuse generally are not changing.
She predicts the statistics for this World Cup will show similar numbers of domestic abuse in England.
It is a dark side to a major sporting event, which should bring joy to everyone.
Goshawk says Solace tries not to place the onus on the football itself, but on the perpetrators, who are - in the vast majority of cases - men.
She explains that an increase in the consumption of alcohol can also have an impact, heightening the feeling of loss or disappointment, which can then lead to aggression.
The charity's message to men is that this is behaviour that can change and that they can get help.
She said: "There are advice lines out there for men who are worried about their own abusive behaviours.
"What we'd say to other men who may not be perpetrating this violence: You have a duty and a responsibility to understand and challenge it within your friendships and your family as well. We all do."
https://hmiprobation.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/news/shortfalls-remain-in-public-protection-measures-in-the-north-west-region-of-the-probation-service/
ReplyDeletehttps://hmiprobation.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/document/dynamic-inspection-of-public-protection-in-north-west-region/
Scoring
Does assessment focus sufficiently on keeping other people safe? 38%
Does planning focus sufficiently on keeping other people safe? 62%
Does the implementation and delivery of services effectively support the safety of other people? 46%
Does reviewing focus sufficiently on keeping other people safe? 53%
Staff in post full-time-equivalent (FTE):
Senior probation officer (SPO) 91%
Probation officer (PO) 77%
Probation services officer (incl. PQiP) 105%
https://hmiprobation.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/news/martin-jones-keynote-speech-for-standout/
ReplyDelete"The numbers are stark: According to the last published figures:
87,342 people in prison
248,568 people on caseload of probation (70 per cent of whom are in the community)
56,923 releases in last twelve months as early release schemes and changes to fix term recall have started to impact.
48,327 recalls in latest period.
In essence there is massive change moving pressure from our overstretched prisons to our equally overstretched probation service – where we have too few staff, with too little experience, managing too many cases."
So to arrive at this point of utter calamity & clusterfuck we saw spurr, romeo, rees, kte & all their lickspittle lieutenants being handed a shitload of public money, awarded huge bonuses, celebrated as amazing leaders & draped in gongs... while frontline staff had pay rises withheld, terms & conditions tightened & the probation service ethos ridiculed, dismissed & discarded.
There's growing disconnect between the wellbeing message coming from HMPPS nationally and the day-to-day experience being described by many frontline staff. If people consistently feel that targets take precedence over wellbeing, then the issue isn’t the message, it’s whether that message is translating into practice.
ReplyDeleteOn the removal of the WMT, the FAQs repeatedly refer to line management discussions, professional judgement and management oversight. In principle, there’s nothing wrong with that. The WMT was never perfect. But it did provide a shared reference point. PP and SPO could both see the same information and have a discussion based on objective evidence.
From September, the emphasis appears to shift much more towards SPO judgement informed by dashboards, operational data and discussion. That inevitably changes the power dynamic.
Im sure a lot of SPOs will continue to act fairly and professionally. But good systems should be designed to protect people when relationships become difficult, not only when they are good. If a PP believes their workload is unsafe and their SPO disagrees, what independent evidence is there to resolve that disagreement? A good governance system shouldn’t rely solely on trust between individuals; it should provide transparent evidence that both parties can rely upon.
For me, that’s the real concern. We seem to be moving from an evidence-based conversation about workload to a relationship-based one. If trust is high, that may work well. But if trust has already been eroded, it risks creating inconsistency, discouraging challenge and leaving some staff feeling they have little objective basis on which to question workload decisions.
That, more than the removal of a percentage figure, feels like the real cultural shift taking place.
HMPPS has completely lost touch with what it feels like to be a frontline PP.
ReplyDeleteEvery answer seems to be another dashboard, another AI tool, another restructure, another “holistic approach”, another management conversation. What nobody ever seems willing to acknowledge is the obvious: there is simply too much work.
No amount of dashboards will create more hours in the day.
No amount of management discussion will reduce an impossible caseload.
No amount of corporate wellbeing rhetoric will undo the damage of years of relentless pressure.
We’re expected to carry more risk, more responsibility, more bureaucracy and now, apparently, accept that if we feel we’re at capacity we’ll just have a conversation about it. What happens when that conversation ends with “I think you can take another case”?
That’s not workload management. That’s asking PPs to negotiate their own breaking point.
And let’s stop pretending this is about modernising the service. It’s about normalising overload.
The WMT may have been flawed, but at least it gave practitioners something objective to point to. Now even that is disappearing, replaced by assurances that everything will be fair because managers will use their judgement.
Forgive me if I don’t find that reassuring.
Every year we’re told the next reform will fix things. Every year workloads increase, experienced colleagues leave, sickness rises and the people left behind are expected to absorb even more.
At some point HMPPS needs to stop telling us to be resilient and start admitting the truth: the system only functions because frontline staff are sacrificing their own health, family life and professional wellbeing to keep it afloat.
That isn’t leadership. It’s exploitation.
https://hmiprobation.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/news/martin-jones-keynote-speech-for-standout/
ReplyDelete'Getafix
Good points @1005 and 1007, all the things that we try to as POs such as building trust, discussions, focus and understanding the offenders we work with has unfortunately not only reduced in that work but also relationships between frontline POs and the SPO’s who sit in their offices dishing out work to those they know can take pressure and on the other hand protecting their friends with the easier cases. Possibly a delicate subject but how many of us are holding extremely high caseloads because others cannot cope. I am sick to death of people receiving a full wage when they are on a reduced caseload because they are ‘stressed’ we are all stressed and adding to my caseload stresses me more and more especially when so many people appear to be working from home more than they should be and those of us in the office have to deal with the fallout from their cases. How many times do you see your SPO out of their office? How many times is the SPO in after you and left before you? A lot of the new SPO’s are freshly qualified can make up a good story for interviews but never asked the basic leadership questions and that is why there is no leadership in the NPS just a full on ‘do as I say, not do as I do’. I no longer can have serious risk based conversations with the SPOs in my team as they are hardly there and so inexperienced, what happened to the five year post qualification rule? I hear you ask why don’t I get an SPO role, well it is because it does not pay enough for me to listen to moans, record sick and holidays and at the same time make life easier for some and not others.I also enjoy working with people who need my support and guidance and I am good at that and dealing with the violent ones who other people will not work with. However, a warning for those further up the greasy pole, people like me are now rare in probation a dying breed, a dinosaur some may say, however with three months left to go, I can already hear the voices, I cannot take that case, I won’t be taking that and just the other day, ‘ miserable bast*rd why are they taking early retirement, how can they do this to us. ‘ I say, time to pick up the gauntlet, baton or the reins and get on with it, time to stand up and be counted and it is alright to say no, which is a lot harder than saying yes. What does the future hold, I don’t know but will be watching the next episodes from outside.
ReplyDelete@16:05 Enjoy your retirement. You deserve it.I took early retirement last year after 35 years as a PO. You will not regret it. I sleep better, my health is better and my optimism has returned. There is life after probation. It has become an impossible job.
ReplyDelete