Message to Minister

1. The Problem

Minister warns prison space may run out despite expansion plans

The justice secretary has said even under the government's plans to open 14,000 more prison places, they could still run out of space over the next few years. Shabana Mahmood told the BBC that "building alone is not enough" to deal with the critical lack of space in UK jails. The government is publishing its 10-year strategy to deal with overcrowding in prisons - including more details of how it will create 14,000 more places in England and Wales by 2031. It comes after prisons were just 100 spaces away from reaching full capacity over the summer. (From BBC news website.)

2. The Narrative

By managed decline or by cavalier incompetence, probation has gone. What's left of it has become part of the problem rather then offering any solution. It's back filling prisons, impacting severely on the parole board, and costing too much police time rounding up all those that have been recalled. It doesn't manage risk any more, it's running away from it. Blame Grayling, blame NAPO, blame managers and an inexperienced workforce. Blame excessive caseloads, burnout and sickness levels. Blame those that don't give a toss about the service itself but see it as a catapult for self advancement. Blame whatever, but it's the model that's wrong. It's the policies that have created the current model that are wrong.

What's coming next isn't going to help either. More community based punishment will only serve to cement probation within the prison service. Punished by the prison service, or punished by the probation service, and those that are released on licence must still be seen to be serving their punishment (not sentence) in the community. The current model is corrosive, and I feel so sad that a service with such a positive, meaningful and worthwhile history has ended up where it is today. ('Getafix a contributor) 

3. The Solution:-

Sort Probation Out!

4. Others agree:-

Billions earmarked for new jails would be better invested in probation

The Howard League has responded to the government’s plans to open up 14,000 more prison places by 2031, outlined in a new 10-year strategy announced today (Wednesday 11 December).

Andrea Coomber KC (Hon.), Chief Executive of the Howard League for Penal Reform, said:

 “We cannot build our way out of this crisis. The billions of pounds earmarked for opening new jails would be better invested in securing an effective and responsive probation service, working to cut crime in the community.

“Problems in prisons spill out into the towns and cities around them, and new jails put added strain on local public services. When violence and self-harm are rife behind bars, it is hardly surprising that proposals to build more prisons meet significant opposition from residents living nearby.

“This is why the forthcoming review of sentencing is so important. Unless we see concerted action to make sentences proportionate and reduce demand on the system, this crisis will deepen and leave an even bigger mess for future generations to tackle.”

Projections published last week by the Ministry of Justice show that the number of people in prison could rise to as high as 105,200 by March 2029. On Monday, the population stood at 86,089.

The prison system is severely overcrowded, with more than half of jails in England and Wales holding more people than they are designed to accommodate. A long line of official inspection reports published in recent months have revealed how rising numbers are contributing to dire conditions, with many people in prison spending hours on end locked inside their cells with nothing to do.

The prison population projections came only a day after the National Audit Office (NAO) warned that there will be a continued risk to capacity in prisons, because so many jails are in poor condition. A quarter of prison places – 23,000 – do not meet fire safety standards and HM Prison and Probation Service’s backlog of maintenance works has doubled to £1.8bn in the last four years. (Howard League)  

Missions; Milestones; Money

No surprises there then! The Labour government's missions and milestones leads to a very close examination of how the money is going to be spent. I think we can all see the promised 'Review' of probation is not going to happen and we're going to be Royally stuffed again. I sadly predict it's pretty much 'game over' for our profession as Labour clearly don't understand what we're about and that we could be so much part of a solution rather than the problem. All they've done so far is signal massive sentence inflation! 

I'm really not sure I've got the energy or interest any more either. Elon Musk has pretty much 'done' for traffic from Twitter and it'll take ages to rebuild it from Bluesky. Viewing figures are considerably down and so are readers contributions. If this was a business, the writing would be on the wall and it would be time to shut up shop. It's been a hell of a good run though and despite some heartache, it's been fun as well. BBC website today:- 

Stop non-priority spending, Treasury warns ministers

Ministers have been told spending not contributing to the government's priorities should be stopped, as Chancellor Rachel Reeves promises to take "an iron fist against waste".

As part of a spending review covering up to 2029, Reeves will ask departments to identify efficiency savings worth 5% of their current budgets.

Department budgets will also be scrutinised by panels, including former senior bankers, to advise on what spending is necessary.

--oo00oo--

BBC news website:-

Six takeaways from Keir Starmer's 'plan for change'

All of the milestones are to be completed by the next general election, likely in 2029 - and in the case of clean power, to be "on track" for the 2030 deadline.

The targets on housebuilding, NHS waiting lists, and school-readiness apply to England only.

Recruiting more police is for England and Wales, while clean power and raising household income are UK-wide.

They are:

• Putting more money in the pockets of working people
• Building 1.5m homes and fast-tracking planning decisions on at least 150 major infrastructure projects
• Treating 92 percent of NHS patients within 18 weeks
• Recruiting 13,000 more police officers, special constables and PCSOs in neighbourhood roles
• Making sure three-quarters of five year olds are school-ready
• 95% clean power by 2030

-oo00oo--

BBC news website:-

The five missions, which Sir Keir said would form "the backbone of the Labour manifesto and the pillars of the next Labour government", include:

• Securing the "highest sustained growth" in the G7 group of rich nations, made up of the UK, US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan, by the end of Labour's first term
• Making Britain a '"clean energy superpower", removing fossil fuels from all of Britain's electricity generation by 2030
• Improving the NHS
• Reforming the justice system
• Raising education standards

Probation News

This recently announced by HM Chief Inspector of Probation:-

National Inspection announcement

Today we are announcing a national probation inspection, covering England and Wales, and reviewing the ability of regions and PDUs to deliver probation services effectively.

National arrangements for service delivery have a crucial role in enabling effective outcomes in frontline probation work. We see some of the impact of this activity through our regional and PDU inspections, but they do not give us a full picture.

It is clear we are unlikely to see any significant improvement in our core programme of PDU inspections in the short term. Regions and PDUs need more time to allow recent changes, including the implementation of SDS40 and Probation Reset, to embed.

By taking some time ahead of our next regional inspection programme to carry out a national inspection, we will be able to gather a comprehensive overview of the things that help or hinder the effective delivery of probation services. This will allow us to make recommendations to drive improvement and target them where we believe they can have the most impact.

Fieldwork for our national inspection will begin later this month and we look forward to sharing the results in the spring. Our inspection standards have also been designed to allow us to carry out further national inspections in the future, where we think there is a need to do so.

--oo00oo--

Then we have this Press release:-

Inspectorate flags concerns as number of SFO reviews meeting required standards continues to decline

HM Inspectorate of Probation has published its third annual report of Serious Further Offence (SFO) reviews, highlighting a decline in the number of reviews completed to the expected standard for the second year running.

The Inspectorate’s SFO inspectors quality assured 87 SFO reviews this year, rating 46 per cent as ‘Good’, but 52 per cent as ‘Requires improvement’, emphasising the need for SFO teams to be sufficiently resourced and experienced, for more effective management oversight, and for improved centralised training.

The report also highlighted the backlog of SFO reviews due in many regions – causing delays in the probation service identifying and implementing the required learning, and in sharing findings with victims and their families.

Chief Inspector of Probation, Martin Jones, said: “The probation service manages a large and complex caseload in the community. By its very nature, risk is inherent in that work and can never be eliminated. Against that backdrop, the number of SFOs committed each year remain low as a proportion of the overall workload, but the impact of serious further offences on victims and their families cannot be underestimated, and they are an important opportunity for learning. So, it is disappointing we have continued to see a reduction in the number of SFO reviews that meet the required standard. More work is needed to develop and support reviewing managers, alongside more transparency and the sharing of high-quality data and effective practice across regions to support a collective developmental approach.”

For the first time, this year’s annual report also sought reflections from probation staff on their experiences of the SFO review process, and their experiences of the organisational culture linked to SFO reviews.

This raised recurring concerns about the SFO review policy framework, how it is applied, and its outcomes and impact. There was also feedback that the level of support provided to those involved in SFO reviews needs to be improved, with respondents concerned about a ‘culture of blame’ existing within HMPPS. Staff reported they often felt individual accountability was attributed to them, with a failure to acknowledge and address wider and procedural systemic issues.

Last year’s SFO annual report made seven recommendations to HMPPS, which focused on the quality of SFO reviews, the associated action planning, and the embedding of learning. Concerningly, little progress has been made against these recommendations and, as a result, this year they are repeated, alongside a further four recommendations to support the improvements the Inspectorate’s quality assurance activity and staff engagement show are required.

Mr Jones added: “The SFO review process should be utilised as a constructive learning opportunity, yet with backlogs, delays in communicating with victims, and the difficult experiences described by those involved, the necessary learning culture is not being achieved. Improvements must be put in place moving forward.”

--oo00oo--

Still no sign of the promised 'Probation Review' from the new government, although just like the last government, they seem keen on adding to prison capacity problems by increasing sentences and of course have doubled the length of custody Magistrates can impose. 

I guess we ought to mention this, but to be honest holding consultations over Christmas and New Year is pretty daft, unless of course you're not really serious about it:- 

The Justice Committee is today (Tuesday, 26 November) launching its first new inquiry of the Parliament entitled ‘Rehabilitation and resettlement: ending the cycle of reoffending’.

Inquiry: Rehabilitation and resettlement: ending the cycle of reoffending
Submit evidence here

MPs on the newly appointed cross-party Committee, chaired by Labour MP Andy Slaughter, will examine the levels of reoffending in England and Wales. They will look in detail at the rehabilitative regimes offered across training and resettlement prisons within the male and female prison estate, including for remand prisoners, IPP prisoners and those in youth custody.

The inquiry comes as latest Ministry of Justice data covering October to December 2022 showed the overall proven reoffending rate was 26.4%, with adults released from custodial sentences of less than 12 months having a proven reoffending rate of 56.6%. For the year ending December 2023, 78% of all offenders cautioned or convicted for an indictable offence in 2023 had at least one prior caution or conviction.

The HM Inspector of Prisons annual report for 2023-24 raised concerns over the length of time inmates were spending in their cells, with 30 out of 32 inspections rated poor or insufficiently good for purposeful activity.

Chair comment

Justice Committee Chair Andy Slaughter MP said: “Prisons and the Probation Service are facing significant and unsustainable pressures. The Justice Committee’s first inquiry will focus in detail on how to break the cycle of reoffending we are witnessing across our justice system.

“We will examine reoffending rates in England and Wales and assess the current rehabilitation regimes offered within different types of prisons, including training, education and purposeful activity.

“The inquiry will also measure the adequacy of support provided to ex-offenders on release including homelessness prevention, employment opportunities and health and wellbeing services, as well as the role of non-custodial sentences in promoting rehabilitation amid the Sentencing Review.

“With limited opportunities for ex-offenders to reintegrate back into society post release and a rise in the numbers leaving jails homeless, a wide-ranging assessment of the prison revolving door is long overdue. The Committee will listen carefully to those across the sector and make evidence-based recommendations to Ministers to shift the dial on this crucial issue.”

Terms of reference for the call for evidence

The Committee invites written submissions through the inquiry website addressing any or all of the issues raised in the following terms of reference by January 10, 2025.

NAO Drops Bombshell

It will be recalled that it was a report from the National Audit Office that finally sealed the fate of 'Transforming Rehabilitation', Chris Grayling's disastrous part-privatisation of the Probation Service, and a report greatly assisted by testimony provided by readers of this blog. Well, here the NAO does not mince its words again in utterly condemning the last government's failed attempt to do the basics in providing enough prison places required as a result of their deeply flawed Criminal Justice policies. It's to be earnestly hoped that the new government will grasp the nettle following the on-going Sentencing Review, together with commissioning the election promise of a fundamental review of the Probation Service. NAO press release:-     

Prison expansion plan was ‘unrealistic and not prioritised’ – NAO

• Government’s 2021 commitment to deliver 20,000 new prison places is not expected to be achieved until 2031 – around five years later than planned
• Current expansion plans are insufficient to meet estimated future demand, with a projected shortage of 12,400 places by end of 20271
• Expansion costs are expected to be at least £4.2bn (80%) above original estimates in 2021

The prison capacity crisis is the result of previous governments’ failure to ensure that the number of prison places was aligned with criminal justice policies such as sentencing and police numbers. Coupled with delays in the current expansion plans, this has led to a reactive and expensive approach that will not meet future demand or deliver value for money in the long-term, according to a new National Audit Office (NAO) report.

The independent public spending watchdog has found, as of September 2024, HM Prison & Probation Service (HMPPS) has so far created a third (6,518) of the 20,000 additional places it committed to deliver by mid-2020s.2

The new date for completing the remaining places is 2031 – five years later than expected – increasing pressure on capacity and costing more. Prison capacity is projected to increase more slowly than demand and MoJ currently projects a shortage of 12,400 places by 2027, if demand increases according to its central forecast. It is relying on the current Sentencing Review to reduce demand for prison places and close the gap.

There are several reasons for delays to the Ministry of Justice’s and HMPPS’s prison expansion plans, including overestimating its ability to gain planning permission for three out of the six new prisons it had planned to build; unrealistic timelines; insufficient understanding of programme requirements and government bodies not working together to prioritise delivery.

The MoJ and HMPPS now expect the prison expansion plans to cost between £9.4 billion and £10.1 billion, which will be at least £4.2 billion over previous estimates stated in 2021. Contributing to the overspend are several significant cost increases. These include the cost of Rapid Deployment Cells (RDC), units with a lifespan of 15 years, that will deliver one thousand places at least three years later than planned; as well as inflation in the construction sector, where prices have risen by 40%.

Over 2020 and 2021, the MoJ increased the scale of its prison expansion plans from 13,400 to 20,000 additional places by the mid-2020s. Despite plans to build six new prisons, refurbish existing prisons and install temporary accommodation, HMPPS has been unable to increase prison places in line with demand. This has resulted in the prison estate operating at close to or at full capacity for over two years.

In October 2024 there were 85,900 people in prison across England and Wales, a 3% reduction since 6 September 2024, following the early release of at least 3,100 prisoners to manage severe capacity issues.

Government has had to move quickly to respond to the emerging capacity crisis. HMPPS has set out operational red lines it would not cross in managing pressures to ensure the safety of staff and prisoners, this includes restricting crowding to limits it has assessed as safe.

Government has largely prioritised short-term ways to increase capacity, such as moving prisoners to open prisons before turning to releasing prisoners early when it had exhausted other options.

However, the MoJ and HMPPS recognise that these actions in response to the capacity issues could impact the effective rehabilitation of prisoners, which in turn may lead to higher reoffending rates and expose the public to a greater safety risk. They are also expensive: HMPPS’s contingency measure to rent police cells overnight (Operation Safeguard) costs nearly five times the average daily cost for a prison place.

Over the next few years there will be continued risk to the capacity in prisons, because of the poor condition of parts of the estate. A quarter (23,000) of prison places do not meet fire safety standards and HMPPS’s backlog of maintenance works has doubled to £1.8 billion from £0.9 billion in the last four years. HMPPS estimates it would cost £2.8 billon over the next five years to bring the whole estate into a ‘fair’ condition, more than double its current maintenance expenditure.

The NAO recommends that the MoJ, the Cabinet Office, HM Treasury, the Home Office and other government bodies should work together to:

• Achieve alignment between government objectives which impact the prison population and the capacity to support these aims
• Learn lessons from the current crisis, including the additional costs involved and impact on prisoner outcomes
• Provide greater transparency to the public and Parliament, including publishing capacity projections alongside its population projections

“The Government must learn lessons from the current prison capacity crisis to ensure the long-term resilience and cost effectiveness of the prison estate.”

 Gareth Davies, head of the NAO

--oo00oo--

Increasing the capacity of the prison estate to meet demand

Background

HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) is the executive agency of the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) responsible for managing the prison service in England and Wales. We last reported on the prison estate in 2020. We concluded that HMPPS was failing to meet its aims of providing a safe, secure and decent prison estate.

HMPPS was also facing a significant challenge to meet its commitment to deliver 13,400 additional prison places. We highlighted that MoJ and HMPPS needed to resist taking a reactive approach to capacity pressures and to instead work with HM Treasury produce a long-term strategy to deliver a prison estate fit for purpose.

Since then, MoJ has increased the scale of its prison expansion plans from 13,400 to 20,000 additional places by the mid-2020s in response to projected increases in demand. HMPPS is delivering the additional places through a portfolio of prison capacity programmes (prison expansion portfolio), which includes a mix of building new prisons, expanding and refurbishing existing prisons, and installing temporary accommodation.

HMPPS has delivered 6,518 additional places between 2020 and September 2024, 278 of which are from additional crowding at four private prisons. Despite this, the prison estate has been operating at close to full capacity since autumn 2022, with many prisons severely crowded.

If prisons reach full capacity, there would be significant impacts on the wider criminal justice system. For example, courts would not be able to try cases where suspects may be given prison sentences. MoJ and HMPPS have had to implement various emergency measures, such as releasing prisoners early, to ensure that the criminal justice system continues to function.

Scope of the report

This report examines:

• MoJ’s and HMPPS’s progress in expanding and maintaining the prison estate
• MoJ’s and HMPPS’s oversight and management of recent capacity pressures and the impact of measures it has used to alleviate pressures
• future risks to the resilience of the prison estate

Conclusion

The current crisis in the prison estate is a consequence of previous governments’ failure to align criminal justice policies with funding for the prison estate, leading to reactive solutions which represent poor value for money. Policies such as introducing tougher sentences and increasing the number of police officers led to steep increases in expected demand for prison places. However, years of under-investment in maintaining the prison estate put MoJ and HMPPS in a weak position to respond to these increases.

HMPPS has therefore taken a reactive and expensive approach focused on building new places urgently at increased cost. Until there is greater coherence between the government’s wider policy agenda and funding for its prison estate, the current crisis position will not represent value for money.

HMPPS’s expansion plan was unrealistic and was not prioritised by the government, with resulting delays that have exacerbated the current crisis. MoJ’s central projection scenario shows demand for spaces exceeding capacity by 12,400 places by the end of 2027, even if current expansion projects are delivered to revised timelines.

We welcome MoJ’s commitment to a more sustainable approach to ensuring a resilient prison estate, although MoJ and HMPPS have yet to set out plans for closing the gap and considering the cost trade-offs involved. Emergency measures such as Operation Safeguard are expensive, while other measures may worsen prisoner rehabilitation or resettlement, which may lead to higher reoffending rates.

MoJ, HMPPS and wider government must ensure they learn lessons from the current capacity crisis and improve their handling of key risks and their focus on long-term resilience.