Given the continuing news coming out regarding wrongful prison releases, it's probably a good idea to publish the following Press Release from the Prison Governors Association:-
Releases in Error (RiEs) are neither rare nor hidden
As with our statement regarding HMP Chelmsford on 27 October 2025, today’s message is not about the details of this individual case. It is a renewed call to focus attention on the wider and worsening conditions across our prison estate. We will not be making comments on the specifics in this case, or that at Chelmsford.
Releases in Errors are openly reported by the Government in the HMPPS Annual Digest — the most recent edition is available here HMPPS Annual Digest 2024 to 2025 - GOV.UK. They are not new; they have occurred under every government’s watch and have occurred under every iteration of HMPPS.
Most practitioners, informed commentators, and impartial experts recognise this. They understand the inherent complexity of the case management process, a system with multiple points of failure, limited automation, and a heavy reliance on human intervention. These processes span multiple parts of the criminal justice system, not just within prisons. The current case management model is both complex and under-resourced. These conditions make errors not just possible, but predictable.
The prison system, like the wider criminal justice system, is under unprecedented and sustained pressure. This is not pressure felt in isolation — prisons are interconnected. While some establishments may be coping better than others, the strain is systemic. Decisions made to stabilise one prison — such as reducing capacity or increasing staffing — often have unintended, negative consequences elsewhere. Today, it feels as though every move to ease pressure in one part of the system simply shifts the burden to another. Most interventions over recent years to manage capacity has seen increase pressure on case management systems.
Despite a recent reduction in the overall prison population, overcrowding remains acute. Around 10,000 people are still held in overcrowded conditions. Crucially, the available space is not in reception prisons like Chelmsford or Wandsworth, which are among the most overcrowded and experience the highest levels of prisoner movement. According to the Howard League for Penal Reform, HMP Wandsworth is operating at 167% of its safe capacity, Chelmsford is at 133% of its safe capacity. The Howard League | Prisons
Between January and March 2025, 13,296 people were released from prison sentences. In the same period, there were 23,154 prisoner transfers — excluding court movements. By a crude measure, it would be likely to see in one year over 52,000 sentenced people released from prison and 92,000 transferred between prisons.
These figures reflect a system running hot, and under constant strain. Offender management statistics quarterly: January to March 2025 - GOV.UK
The scale of Releases in Error (RiEs) is deeply concerning. In the last full reporting year, 262 prisoners were released in error, averaging around 65 incidents per quarter. These errors include individuals released either too early or too late from their sentence, both scenarios carry serious consequences and undermine public confidence. HMPPS Annual Digest 2024 to 2025 - GOV.UK
Currently, around 0.5% of prisoners are not released on the correct date. While that may appear to be a small percentage, in a system managing tens of thousands of releases and transfers each quarter, it does represent a significant operational failure. The conditions required to reduce this figure to zero simply do not exist.
Achieving a zero-error outcome would demand substantial investment in staff training, modern IT infrastructure, and recruitment, all within a system already stretched by competing priorities. Successive governments have accepted this level of risk for decades. In that context, it feels disingenuous to see politicians attempt to extract political gain from a prison system in crisis.
Achieving a zero-error outcome would demand substantial investment in staff training, modern IT infrastructure, and recruitment, all within a system already stretched by competing priorities. Successive governments have accepted this level of risk for decades. In that context, it feels disingenuous to see politicians attempt to extract political gain from a prison system in crisis.
Recent safety in custody statistics also lay bare the complexity and dangers within our prison system. Prisons are high-risk environments, not only for those who live in them, but for the staff who work tirelessly within them. Much must change before these institutions can truly become places of reform. The challenges we face in custody are not isolated. They are symptoms of deeper, systemic issues across society. It is unrealistic to expect a struggling, violent prison system to single-handedly reduce reoffending.
Levels of extreme violence in prisons are rising — including incidents of homicide. Violence directed towards staff is increasing, and rates of self-harm among people in custody continue to climb. These are not isolated trends; they reflect a system under immense strain.
There is no silver bullet to improve safety outcomes. What works in one prison can produce adverse effects in another. Austerity introduced a benchmarked prison system that levelled down resources and stripped away individualised regimes. This has left many establishments without the flexibility they need to respond to local challenges.
We continue to advocate for greater autonomy and operational freedom for our members — provided they are properly funded to do so. Empowering local leadership is essential to restoring safety, stability, and dignity across the prison estate.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/safety-in-custody-quarterly-update-to-june2025/safety-in-custody-statistics-england-and-wales-deaths-in-prison-custody-toseptember-2025-assaults-and-self-harm-to-june-2025
Our members and colleagues across HMPPS continue to do their utmost to keep the prison system afloat. At times, it feels like this is against all odds and despite the limited contribution from successive governments to properly enable and resource the service the public rightly expects.
Our commitment remains clear: we will work with any political party or government willing to find meaningful solutions to improve conditions in our prisons. We all have a vested interest in making this system safer, fairer, and more effective. But while political parties showboat and grandstand, the real risk to the public is not being effectively managed — despite the relentless efforts of those working within HMPPS.
Could we have a similar announcement for Probation please. Our leaders/unions should also step forward for staff. All of the comments in the press always seem to end in accusations that staff are “lazy and crap” because the promises made to the public and to prisoners are unachievable. Similarly, HMIP expectations are way off reality for most prisons and probation PDUs. It would be a start if we promised less..
ReplyDeleteThere are no real probation leaders!
DeleteThere are NO leaders. Can anyone point to a useful, honest, constructive noise from team Missing in Action aka probation, Napo, chief probation officer...???
DeleteI was reflecting on this after seeing the original article, which was recently circulated in a PDU newsletter. We do have champions and leaders, just not always in the right places. There’s probably little point in stating the obvious, but yes, if our unions, leaders, and others did a bit more and actually spoke for probation …..
Delete“The future of probation lies in evidence-based reform, practitioner development, and adequate resourcing. Practitioners and managers must be empowered to lead and challenge from within, cultivating a workforce of champions who articulate the service’s purpose with clarity and confidence. Probation must resist the urge to overpromise on crime control and risk management. Therefore, reframing public safety as a natural consequence of effective rehabilitation rather than an isolated goal.”
https://probationmatters.blogspot.com/2025/07/outlier-england.html?m=1
I also read this recently which cites the likes of Bob Turney and Allan Weaver and their “invaluable contribution towards the criminal justice system”. There are many voices, we just never hear them.
DeleteEmbracing the views and perspectives of those with lived experience
https://hmiprobation.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/document/embracing-the-views-and-perspectives-of-those-with-lived-experience/
And others https://probationmatters.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2025-10-03T09:52:00%2B01:00&max-results=10&start=10&by-date=false&m=1
DeleteAnd more others https://probationmatters.blogspot.com/2025/10/mic-drop.html?m=1
Yet this glorious cohort of leaders continues to garner plaudits from the Inspectorate, we can all sleep safely in our beds knowing this high level of excellence exists in probation
Delete"It is unrealistic to expect a struggling, violent prison system to single-handedly reduce reoffending."
ReplyDeleteAnd therein lies a major hurdle. That small paragraph tells us plenty about the misguided sense of supremacy in our prison service. Such blinkered institutional nonsense only serves to perpetuate learned helplessness; which allows manipulative bullies & callous opportunists to divide, rule & exploit.
What actually works within the CJS at the moment? Is their anything at all?
ReplyDeleteThe recent focus has been on erroneous releases, so much so that a second murder of a prisoner at HMP Wakefield within a month has just achieved fleeting news coverage.
The number of prison officers being prosecuted for inappropriate relationships and smuggling contraband has become almost a daily news post, but has become so common place it hardly raises an eyebrow anymore. Drones, suicides, poor training and inexperienced staff that are in my opinion far too young in the first place to be given the roles their being tasked to do. Managerial fast tracking which really only ensures that those in charge have very little experience themselves.
There's stupid policies being fired around from the ivory towers of Whitehall, written by people who themselves have little knowledge of what it takes to make the CJS work. Many policies are both counterproductive and expensive. When approximately two and a half thousand prisoners being released are recalled by the probation service every month, I have to ask what is the point (or benefit) of releasing them early in the first place?
As for probation services? Well, they are in a no better state then the prison service. I'd even go as far as suggesting that probation in its current operational model is a big part of the overall problem. Annon@ 08:09 is on the money. The rethoric and the promise is a very, very long way from reality.
The system is more then broken. Its derelict.
At what point does something so derelict become too dangerous, too destructive, too far gone beyond repair, that it can't be fixed, and has to be replaced in full?
'Getafix
Keep breaching and recalling brothers and sisters take your low status out on the poor and mentally ill
ReplyDeleteI cant decide if your a bot or a twat but I suspect you're the same person who puts this type of comment on every post along with "where's your pay rise losers" waffle. Recalls aren't really in our hands anymore since 'consider a recall' was introduced and as to our pay rise, if you've been in Probation longer than 10 years you'll know this shit is the norm...
DeleteI don't know what bot is and these are short snipes but there may be some agitating pointer here. The reality is there is no union strength any longer. The dilution of a single focus gone. The storm of criminal justice issues across the board and the open display of the vanity project lammy. His appalling tantrum recently as the first black deputy at question time showed he both failed to answer the questions. Failed to appreciate his opportunity to show us he has ability. Instead a storm of rubbish a failure to be honest and clearly he does not understand the duties upon him. Under this incompetence all other problems will stem and I see it getting worse we have to get ourselves protected in some way and form a proper rejection process.
DeleteLammy is the black Boris Johnson of labour fat oafish fool. It is looking like he lied to parliament first outing where is the principled labour we were promised.
DeleteWhat’s colour got to do with it.
DeleteHas it become the norm because we accept it?
ReplyDeleteWell short answer yes! Ineffectual Union, members who don't even bother voting, staff too worried about bills and families to complain, few options to change careers unless you get out early..
Deletehttps://news.sky.com/story/prison-release-mistakes-symptom-of-system-close-to-breaking-point-says-prisons-inspector-13466917
ReplyDeleteThe chief inspector of prisons has said the recent spate of prisoners being released too early is "a symptom of a system that is close to breaking point".
DeleteCharlie Taylor's assessment comes as it is revealed that two prisoners wrongly released last year are still at large, as are two others believed to have been freed in error in June this year.
Writing in The Daily Telegraph, Mr Taylor said the growing number of mistaken early releases was "embarrassing and potentially dangerous".
He also put it down to "an overcomplicated sentencing framework" and described it as "a symptom of a system that is close to breaking point".
He said prison inspections "repeatedly highlight the failure to keep prisons secure, safe and decent, and to provide the sort of activity that will help inmates get work on release".
In his opinion piece, the chief inspector pointed to successive governments' responses to the overcrowding crisis in the system, which put pressure on "junior prison staff who repeatedly had to recalculate every prisoner's release date".
These calculations, he wrote, had been made harder by a series of early-release schemes brought in by successive governments.
The changes, he said, "increase the likelihood of mistakes and in three years the number of releases in error has gone up from around 50 a year to 262".
It comes as ministers face mounting pressure over a series of high-profile manhunts, with Justice Secretary David Lammy admitting on Friday there is a "mountain to climb" to tackle the crisis in the prison system.
Algerian sex offender Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, 24, was arrested on Friday after a police search following his release from HMP Wandsworth in south London last week, which Scotland Yard said officers only found out about on Tuesday.
A large proportion of those being recalled are individuals on probation reset who have little incentive to attend probation appointments or drug tests when they are effectively “not supervised.” Many are released without accommodation, go AWOL, and the only way to re-establish contact is through recall. Probation reset has become a smoke-and-mirrors exercise—creating hidden workloads rather than resolving underlying issues.
ReplyDeleteIf drug testing on PSS cases serves no practical purpose when PSS is going anyways, it should be discontinued. Likewise, drug testing individuals with low RSR scores is unnecessary and counterproductive. Reducing or removing these practices would significantly cut the number of recalls. NAPO need to do more about this terrible effort to paper the cracks of high workloads. We are drowning under processes, drug testing, recalls and breaches for a “workload that isn’t supposed to be there”
"Probation reset" is a policy in England and Wales that reduces the frequency of contact between probation practitioners and individuals on post-sentence supervision to alleviate workload pressures. This means that active probation contact, including face-to-face appointments and rehabilitation activity requirements delivered by probation practitioners, will stop during the final third of a sentence, with exceptions for certain cases. The goal is to focus resources on the beginning of sentences where research suggests interventions can have the most impact.
DeleteBored now. Next...
ReplyDeleteThis is only policy in effect. For decades we've had reactionary govts, especially in the crime/justice arena, with queues of advisors & wannae-bes lining up to present, cost & deliver the next new thing. There have been few, if any, eyes on the horizon.
So the prisons crisis has been gathering momentum with no respite... who would dare to be 'soft on crime'? Naysayers were cast into the wilderness.
The 'modern' politician has been honing their public persona, sharpening their tongue & preparing cruel words for those who do not agree/comply.
The formula seems to be:
crisis looms - ignore it - crisis hits press - be seen to be introducing new measures - crisis continues - ah, but I've solved it & we've already moved on to the next matter, so enough, I'm bored already, I need a new challenge.
The prisons/probation/courts crisis is real and has been a growing problem for at least 40 years. The myopic politicians & simple serpents - our alleged 'leaders' - are severally liable & culpable.
Why not gather a group of bright minds from within, collate the data, policies & facts of the last 40 years, crunch the numbers & present the TRUE COST of the multiple cloth-eared failures-to-launch?
Sad to say that won't happen because 'the west' is running headlong towards decades of a new fascism. In the uk the ground is being prepared for farage & co, the usa already has trump/vance & the 'smart money' is either aligning itself with, or slipping quietly away to a safe haven.
Pethaps there is a bigger picture... one where the prison population is slashed WW1 style, when cannon-fodder is required to man the barricades - see also putin & zelenskyy & drc & netanyahu etc.
Evening Standard 1st November 2025:-
ReplyDeleteA man freed from prison under the Government’s early release scheme has been charged with murder.
The man, who cannot be named for legal reasons, was released as part of efforts to reduce prison overcrowding, according to The Times.
It is the most serious offence alleged to have been committed by someone released under the scheme, which allows some offenders to be freed after serving 40% of their sentence, rather than 50%.
The scheme applies to prisoners serving a determinate sentence, the most common form of prison sentence, but excludes those convicted of sexual offences, domestic abuse and national security-related offences such as terrorism.
Violent offenders sentenced to more than four years are also excluded.
Once released, they remain on licence for the rest of their sentence and can be recalled to prison if they breach the terms of their release or commit further offences.
Keep looking in peoples cupboards you deserve your pay rise
ReplyDeleteIt's not about deserving pal. It's about inflationary rise. Doing the increased workloads at less pay than last year. It's about getting the government to accept our work is important to maintain some balance in law and order that we are duly paid. The difference we make the reactionary response we deliver on . The early release schemes and diversionary approaches to stuffed up jails. Treating people with some care to encourage change takes skill we need to able to help bring down crime. Not beg for pay and ask them to find money that we are due. Why do snipe at this role. What's is your underlying desire to attack people who are working in the interests of social cohesion. Do you have an ace to grind are you a social misfit who needs attention. What is your difficulty that choose to be offensive than supportive can we help you in some way than read your antagonism towards us. What else might you need. Let's talk it through.
DeleteIt's ok to argue a fair rate for the job & that particular skills are required so should be recognised.
DeleteIt's not helpful to your argument to plant a flag on the moral high ground, but follow it with unjustified crass language.
This blog is occasionally a target for individuals to express anger/resentment, but it's been proven time & again that the aggrieved run out of steam when starved of responses.
That also applies to mendacious, malicious interlopers trying to cause mischief & more.
Jim's blog has won through because it exposes, explains & contains the truth of the probation condition.
Breaking news: "timmy the tory to quit as Squealer's head honcho after scorned soccer mom handy nandy lands a punch from the centre right"
ReplyDeleteBBC is in a right old pickle now the right leaning revisionists have eliminated the leadership. This is the same right of centre power base that has driven the justice system into the ground. It's a divisive, destructive force that generates & mobilises moral outrage, finances & orchestrates influential groups, manipulates the media & is happy to lie through their whiter-than-white teeth.
DeleteEarlier this morning a journo on BBC world service challenged a us republican over a blatant lie re-the us shutdown. The response was immediate - you tried to edit trump & you lost. Now your boss is gone, so don't you dare try to silence me.
BBC have been getting away with non reporting and bias for years. This time they got beat by the tough it out team trump. What it illustrates is how much they tried to ensure his reputation as bad. All this has done is to shield him as victim. The journos that did it should be sacked too. This is politics Is it. I'm bi supporter but equally I like fair. Starmer changed sentencing to bias in favour those of ethnic backgrounds another disastrous direction. UK world standing all time low.
DeleteAnon 08:16 Thanks for that - very worrying. Anon 08:30 It's an emerging story and much more complicated and nuanced. There are allegations of a 'coup' and we have no idea how the Chair will deal with it all in Parliament later today. It's a subject I'm keen to cover again at some point, having initiated past blog posts on the subject.
DeleteInteresting to hear that trump is now claiming 'yet another victory' over false news.
DeleteNb: the vile monster who claimed the Sandy Hook school massacre was fiction has 'access all areas' to trump's whitehouse & pentagon.
JB of course I appreciate the complexities of nuance. Sadly it's now beyond repair. With a player like trump it was only going to end badly. When the home team cuts a corner to advantage a point to the detriment of the other side then it will be at all costs. They gave them a open goal so sympathy will be hard to find.
Deleteevery single sad, cowardly craven individual who's queued up to kiss trump's golden ring (use your own imagination) is culpable for the vandalism the crass baboon is wreaking across the globe - from the climate to russia/ukraine, israel/middle east, economic tariffs & the world's media.
DeleteHow has one single unreconstructed bully managed to accelerate the destruction of the planet, promote hate, greed & violence in such a short space of time?
A $1Billion law suit??? Oh what a laugh he;s having.
I do not support trump. However he is viewed he gets oxygen from anything he does no matter what. Good bad it's all trump. Those video splicers although they think that was clever have probably destroyed the BBC . It's the classic fear of a great white shark the biggest shark and predatory creature. Oh what's that fat looking missile coming oh it's a killer whale just smashing into a great white shark to eat it's protein rich kidneys and leave the rest because he can. Why prod the beast .
Delete