A recent reminder from regular contributor 'Getafix pointed us in the direction of the Revolving Doors charity and the following very insightful blog post from last October which we seem to have missed. Although apparently not attributed, I feel it's quite likely to be the work of their policy manager and former Probation Officer Kelly Grehan. We've featured her work before, for example here in 2023 The Need for Probation Reform and she is clearly 'on the money'.
Time for a change in the narrative for probation and public expectations?Few would disagree that we are in the midst of a criminal justice system crisis for England and Wales. Years of under-investment have come home to roost, with insufficient recognition of the interdependencies between the police, probation, prison, courts, Crown Prosecution Service and other essential services. Repair work is going to be complicated, but now is the time for a new government to rebuild a comprehensive, connected system fit for the future.
A shift in the rhetoric and public expectations of what can and cannot be achieved through community supervision will be essential. Public media coverage of probation practice is preoccupied with failure. This ranges from a surprise that probation practitioners do not have immediate access to accommodation for anyone being released homeless, to missed opportunities uncovered by serious further offence investigations, which report missed information sharing and swift enforcement opportunities.
It seems timely to ask: Are public expectations of what can be achieved through community supervision realistic and are recommendations being directed to the correct service/agency provider?
‘Rehabilitation does not end at the prison gate’
I would argue that, unless there is a much wider shared community commitment to and understanding of inclusion and access to essential public services, then expectations and confidence in probation practice will remain stuck in an unrealistic and low place.
The excessive use of imprisonment may satisfy appetites for retribution, but the reality is that prisoners come from the community and, for the vast majority, return to the community. Rehabilitation does not end at the prison gate.
If we want to reduce the likelihood of reoffending then our communities need to be ready to support and improve access to providing accommodation, speedy access to mental health and substance misuse services and a readiness to accept and encourage ex-offenders into the workplace and education.
Frustration at lack of community support
Probation practitioners can signpost and support referrals to these essential services, but do they have confidence that the door will be open?
The probation service is one of the smallest and usually most invisible public services – unless something has gone wrong. The public usually shows little interest in the criminal courts and work of the probation service unless they or a member of their family work there or they have found themselves the wrong side of the law or a victim of crime.
Most who work in the criminal justice system are highly committed and passionate about their work, wanting to do all they can to prevent further harm, improve lives and develop safer communities. I don’t think in my forty plus years working in many different roles for probation I have ever met a colleague who did not think the justice system could be improved and did not remain frustrated at the lack of access to services in the community to support rehabilitation and reintegration.
Success stories for probation nearly always demonstrate examples of strong multi agency partnership work that support integration and celebrate the individuals’ efforts to move forward. The challenge has always been one of negotiating the tightrope between care and control.
I question whether we have shifted the expectations and balance too far in the direction of control, raising the bar for public protection measures so high for so many that we have lost sight of the imperative to support and nurture rehabilitation. All too often the starting point is “what is the risk assessment?” rather than “what is the risk and needs assessment”? Effective probation practice requires attention to both the management of risk of harm and reducing reoffending through well planned and delivered rehabilitation support services. If offenders get their lives back together the risk to the public generally falls.
High vs. low risk: a harmful dichotomy
The introduction of the Multi Agency Public Protection Arrangements (MAPPA) at the start of the century had an impressive impact, encouraging probation to separate out those who presented the highest risk of serious harm. The mantra that resources followed risk makes sense; so that the agencies collaboratively take concerted efforts to ‘control and monitor’ those whom we have good confidence could cause further harm and victims.
However, what has followed is a polarisation of political and media reporting of high or low risk of harm. Transforming Rehabilitation, the restructuring of probation services in 2014, crystallised this dichotomy, with oversimplified explanations dividing the caseload between high-risk offenders to the public sector National Probation Service and the ‘low-risk offenders’ to the outsourced Community Rehabilitation Companies. In truth over half of the caseload is assessed as ‘medium risk of harm’. Risk of harm assessment is dynamic and can quickly change, hence the need for regular contact and engagement.
Since the further restructuring in 2021 back to one service, probation has struggled to find the balance between care and control. The direction of travel has been dominated by a mixture of juggling to achieve national consistency, offset rising prison population pressures, struggling to retain or train a sufficient skilled workforce.
We have also seen politicians who have been all too easily swayed by high-profile serious further offence investigations and the promise ‘that it will never happen again’, raising public expectations higher as to what can be managed and assured, when managing supervision of an individual in the community.
Few in the media have paused and asked what can be achieved by one probation practitioner managing a caseload in excess of fifty? How many times a month might the practitioner actually be able to meet with them to develop an influential relationship and remain on top of their needs, risks and changing circumstances? It is not like prison where you know where they are all the time. How much access is there in the community to access immediate accommodation, for instance? If someone is homeless, their preoccupation is with day-to day-survival, it is almost impossible for the probation practitioner to find space to address their ‘thinking behaviour and motivation to change’.
How can we support probation staff and those they supervise?
Probation staff need to be better supported by other services in the community to enable individuals on release from prison to access the immediate needs that bring about some basic stability.
A sizeable chunk of the caseload is assessed as ‘medium risk of serious harm’: people with complex lives that require both significant support for rehabilitation, as well as careful assessment and management of risk indicators such as domestic abuse and/or histories of previous violence. It is here that lies the knot for probation to untangle. What should be expectations and priorities for probation practitioners working with this group?
Good quality probation practice requires attention to both public protection, which involves good information sharing and the use of some controls and restrictions and good interventions and access to services to support rehabilitation. One without the other inevitably falls a long way short of effective practice.
The risk of exposure to criticism for a failure to attend to safeguarding measures now tends to overshadow attention to rehabilitation and resettlement. Low public confidence saps staff morale and motivation. This in turns contributes to turnover, poor recruitment and high vacancies. The imbalance is felt keenly by those being supervised. The supervisor – supervisee relationship becomes one of control rather than engagement and partnership. High caseloads, combined with excessive processes can result in a lack of time to develop effective, meaningful relationships that can support behaviour changes.
Moving forward it would be encouraging to see:
- Greater public understanding of what realistically can be achieved through supervision in the community.
- Support for community ownership, collaboration and inclusion for those being released from prison, including quick access to services that provide stability.
- An improved balance between attending to risk of harm and needs to support rehabilitation.
Kelly Grehan 28th October 2024
All the above rings true and has been said time and time again but I still cant see it changing. This Government like it was under Blair is extremely authoritarian despite the words they spout and they just won't relinquish any control. With regards to the general public and media, probation hasn't helped forming their views with its endless emphasis on risk, risk, risk and how as long as new Officers can write an excellent RMP they are ready to become SPOs, sod gaining experience in working with the actual offenders! The view that Probation are the All Seeing Eye will only get worse when everyone leaving prison is tagged and the general public start to believe we are accessing our caseloads like the Minority Report....
ReplyDeleteIts blueprint for change yet a year later look where we are, backwards not fowards. I’ve never been a fan of MAPPA or the wider risk-management setup, but the this annual report really stood out. On page 10, the “Voice of the Practitioner” section argues for legislation so that housing, jobs and support should be immediate rights, not referrals, and that probation needs better investment and legal authority to coordinate those services properly. Like the Revolving Doors report it’s striking to see these case for change being made from those inside the system itself, past and present. I saw another one from a previous ceo too, Tessa Webb.
ReplyDeletehttps://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69032d5a92779f89baa51fb3/Bedfordshire_MAPPA_Annual_Report_2024_to_2025.pdf
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/mappa-regional-annual-reports-2024-to-2025
A former probation trust ceo saying the same thing. Time for a change in the narrative for probation and public expectations?
ReplyDeletehttps://revolving-doors.org.uk/time-for-a-change-in-the-narrative-for-probation-and-public-expectations/
Perhaps the management of serious risk of harm should be allocated to where it properly lies, i.e. with the police and the security services in the case of alleged terrorists, and the probation service should go back to its roots and focus upon rehabilitation and re-integration. It is hard to escape the notion that probation are perfectly placed to be held accountable for other agencies failings, or to provide an escape for ministerial responsibility.
ReplyDeleteTake any risk from probation and non management of offenders in community it's over. That statement is turkeys looking forward to Xmas. It just illustrates the backwards wilderness from where pos are asking for yet more oblivion. Managing risks and rehabilitation come hand in hand. The level of which there is a sliding scale of resources . High risk demand more resources to protect the wider issues. Low risk low need is simple stuff. Do you really expect plus 30k a year call yourselves professionals in something to then just put high resources into low short risk offending. Any other staff can rehabilitate low risk work with good communications social contract forming and regular confidence tracing support and educational direction.. work relationships trust normalising stabilising accomodation do all that rehabilitation for us. Once invested rehabilitation includes responsibilities duties and recognition. The rewards are part of offender change redevelopment. If the resources were there like they are for immigrants this might be officer resources however it isn't so while having a claim on qualified for something your bread and butter is at the higher end of risk ensuring you maintain records of contact and directions to protect everyone. That's the job not harking on good times past. It's a multicultural environment and you have to develop awareness across cultures to mange the low remorse levels of some types of conscious free high risk communities.
Deletehttps://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000l2b6
ReplyDeleteAged 19, Jacob Dunne threw a single punch in a drunken brawl outside a pub in Nottingham. His victim, James Hodgkinson, died in hospital nine days later and Jacob was convicted of manslaughter.
Now 27, Jacob has a young family and has just completed a degree, but it was only after taking part in restorative justice that he began to turn his life around. Meeting face-to-face with James' parents had a profound impact on both Jacob and the Hodgkinsons, and the resulting relationship has changed Jacob’s life in unexpected ways.
With his heart set on a career helping others, Jacob wants to understand his own transformation from angry teenager to a responsible father and respected member of the community. He has travelled the country giving speeches and workshops to students, prisoners, prison officers, hospital staff, educators and young offenders. In February, he gave the keynote speech at a graduation ceremony for trainee prison officers.
In this five part series, he retraces the key moments in his life since he threw the punch. It isn’t a straightforward story of rehabilitation but a complicated, often painful journey. Recording himself at home during lockdown, Jacob makes contact with his former parole officer, a prison officer, mentors, and others who have benefited from similar face-to-face confrontations.
In this first episode, he revisits the worst night of his life, with the victim’s parents Joan and David.
Sounds like restorative justice are grabbing at the limelight. 19 matures reflects get some prompting is good news. Hardly the usual DV monster that has been changed is it. Any better examples.
ReplyDeleteThe narrative is a two way street.
ReplyDeleteStop selling probation to the public like the Chancellor sells economic growth. It means a thousand things to just as many people.
Explain what the purpose of probation is.
How if is it a service of public protection, and how it's expected to achieve it's purpose if its chained to the rest of the CJS ?
Reducing reoffending isn't about monitoring people to the end of their time, it's about changing people.
The probation service should not be looked on as a Serco or G4S supervision/monitoring service. Its got an independent claim.
The narrative has to change within the probation service internally, not just what it projects to the public.
https://www.probation.ie/EN/PB/0/F6ECD835D43DF0BB80258030003C572A/$File/Marsh.pdf
'Getafix 8
No one is disagreed with this point. The staff don't know this anymore and the g4s has contract influence in political parties who won't go back.
DeleteIn recent years, the study of how and why former offenders desist from criminal behaviour has become a key topic in the criminological literature (see e.g. Maruna, 2001; Farrall and Calverley, 2007; Laub and
DeleteSampson, 2003). Central to this literature has been the idea of the role of self-narratives in promoting and sustaining desistance (see e.g. Burnett, 2004; Maruna, 2001, Vaughan, 2011). Maruna (2001, pp. 7–8) writes: ‘To successfully maintain this abstinence from crime, ex-offenders need … a coherent and credible self-story to explain (to themselves and others) how their checkered pasts could have led to their new, reformed
identities’. This new life script provides new values and beliefs that can navigate the offender to crime-free living despite the often overwhelming
structural obstacles they face.
Questions remain about the construction of narrative and the adoption of a new life script by desisting individuals, however. What is involved in constructing a new script? Is it a solitary or a co-operative process? How does the script account for past misdeeds and
simultaneously provide a framework for change?
Interestingly, the well-known 12-step programmes of Alcoholics Anonymous and Narcotics Anonymous (1993), and similar mutual aid programmes, also focus a great deal on life scripts and provide a narrative template for the addict seeking recovery. At regular
fellowship meetings, members in recovery are invited to share their stories and contribute to an atmosphere of recovery. These stories reinforce a sense of bonding and of common ailment between members, and the recovery programme is held up as a common solution for all to participate in. Newcomers are mentored by more established members and encouraged to request a sponsor to act as a guide through the 12-step process.
This paper will interrogate the core elements of the 12-step ‘script’ as internalised by a small sample of Dubliners in long-term recovery from serious addiction problems to explore the possible parallels between this
Delete12-step narrative and the desistance narrative literature as outlined by Maruna (2001) and Vaughan (2007, 2011) in their criminological research. The findings suggest a great deal of overlap between these two
literatures in the function that narrative performs in desistance from crime and recovery from addiction.
Laudable as ever, and possibly one of the better means of achieving change for many, especially people who are 'locked in' to their own personal doom-loop (familial, community, behavioural... whatever force might be driving it) and feel powerless to escape its draw.
DeleteBut what does it require?
1. Handing power & responsibility to those with knowledge & experience of [the problematic behaviour]
2. Trust in the mentors' capacity to self-regulate & not lapse/relapse in the face of new challenges
3. Belief that participants - whether longstanding members, mentors or newcomers - want to achieve abstinence from [the problematic behaviour]
Devolving power? To criminals? Trust? Belief? In criminals?
It could be argued, of course, that serco, g4s, etc all have form for previous offending.
As someone else commented not so long back, it probably requires a Ground Zero event for probation & the justice system - maybe even the rule of law - before any such future option could be possible.
Here’s an idea ? Treat people with empathy and respect , stop behaving like a communist state police force and your punters might thrive better , progress and be more respectful to you , in turn you might enjoy what you do more
ReplyDeleteYou what?! Nah, too much like hard work; its easier to issue appointments, demand respect & breach when they don't play ball. Keeps the IT police off yer back, keeps the numbers right. As long as its on the system in the 'correct' format, no-one gives a toss. HMIP can't find fault in the audit trail. £650 in the pocket for 35 hours a week, every week, good holidays & pension. Input whatever you need to & do as you please with the rest of the time. Piece of piss. And a free degree thrown in. Why stress?
DeleteAnd here lies the problem. Recruiting loads of new people who don’t give a toss about making a difference.
Delete“I was a reformer at the Ministry of Justice. I will be a reformer at the Home Office too.”
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj9790jw34po
What exactly did she reform for the better? Are not probation and prisons in worse shape after her watch.
• introduced a controversial early release scheme which carries significant risks and broke the probation service.
• backed a major prison-building programme that won’t solve the overcrowding problem.
• floated more tagging, more Ai which does nothing for staffing, resources or rehabilitation.
• human rights reforms that raise serious concerns around balancing “common sense” and civil liberties.
• had lots of photo opportunities.
What may look like bold, structural changes are headline grabbers and damage-control, not meaningful transformation.
romeo or mahmood? does it matter? both were as toxic & ultimately useless as the other & did nowt beyond advancing the right-leaning punishment narrative... and their own careers.
DeleteProbation has always leaned right. The abusive culture on the 90s bullying race claims the infighting. Probation HR was always in a mess or making a bigger mess. Controlling staff over assertive abuse. These people get promoted this is the probation way. Corrupt.
DeleteCorrupt to the core. Directors / Chiefs who control others by narcissistic abuse. Steve, Lynda, Angela, Kilvinder… who next?
DeleteAs at 30 September 2025 1,552 FTE band 5 senior probation officers, 5,576 FTE band 4 probation officers & 5,409 FTE band 3 probation services officers were in post
ReplyDeleteTOT: 12,537 staff for approx 245,000 cases; ~20 cases each?
Oh.
I know, the figures never stack up and never get clarified, plus there own figures say we need double the officers in case management!? I can only suggest that half the band 4 are in non jobs and not holding cases...either coperate roles, UPW, APs,
DeleteBBC, Aug 2023, using clearly inaccurate data; but who corrected them? Anyone?
Delete"Probation Service staff and salaries
England and Wales have 19,850 full-time probation officers, more than double the 2020 total
In the past year, 2,385 probation services officers joined the service and 832 left
The starting salary is £23,637 outside London (£27,642 in London), rising to £35,130 after qualifying (about 18 months)"
This is the issue with client journalism whereby journos print whatever is sent to them without verification or clarification of the facts.
________________________________________________
hmip jones, Apr 2025: "our findings do not demonstrate that the Service is adequately prepared to respond effectively to further change and challenge. Major shortfalls were found in service delivery and work to keep people safe remains a significant cause for concern."
Portsmouth Uni, Jun 2025: "Identity and values, emotional impact of the job and organisational climate contribute to high probation staff resignation rates, new research has revealed"
BBC, Aug 2025: "There is a shortfall of around 10,000 probation staff to manage offenders serving sentences in the community, documents seen by the BBC show."
Soton Uni, very recent: "Probation finds itself in an incredibly testing situation. It can reasonably be described as a ‘post-traumatic organization’ (Robinson, 2023), operating in what one of our respondents cast as a ‘change saturated area’... Probation continues to be required to react to external pressures, rather than operating firmly as the author of its own destiny."
full paper here: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/09540962.2025.2576570?needAccess=true
Worse 5.1 po staff per manager . Grossly over managed Nd yet we all know there are hundreds of pos in no po jobs doing something to hide . Leaving the bigger burdens in others. Psos 50% of the task facing staff only a fraction of the respect and dignity for their broadened work . This infighting is exactly what the management use to suppress both groups.
Deletehttps://www.theguardian.com/law/2025/nov/20/moj-to-remove-right-to-trial-by-jury-for-thousands-of-cases-in-controversial-overhaul
ReplyDeleteCriminals will be stopped from “gaming the system” by choosing trial by jury in order to increase the chances of proceedings collapsing, the courts minister has said, promising to enact radical changes to limit jury trials by the next election.
DeleteDrug dealers and career criminals were “laughing in the dock” knowing cases can take years to come to trial, Sarah Sackman said, while warning that inaction would be a road to “chaos and ruin”.
Ministers will legislate to remove the right to trial by jury for thousands of cases in one of the biggest and most controversial overhauls of the justice system in England and Wales in generations – promising the changes will significantly shrink the court backlog by 2029.
The Ministry of Justice is braced for a backlash from barristers and the judiciary as it presses ahead with the measures to tackle a backlog of nearly 80,000 cases, which will create a proposed new judge-only division of the crown court to hear some cases.
Speaking at Wood Green crown court, Sackman said victims of severe sexual assault were routinely told it could take four years for their cases to come to court.
On the morning she spoke to the Guardian, the minister watched a bail hearing for a case involving severe sexual assault, one unlikely to come to a full trial until 2028. Some of the offences in the case, including strangulation, beating and nonconsensual sexual images, took place as far back as 2020.
“I can’t think of a greater responsibility in government than ensuring that our justice system works,” she said. “The sense of duty that I feel is enormous.”
Changes to jury trials are opposed by 90% of the Criminal Bar Association, which has warned that ending the right would be an unacceptable price to pay and undermine what was a fundamental principle for British justice. It said that the British public had a deep faith in the jury system – and that changes risked a loss of trust.
Sackman said she understood why people “fear change” to the justice system. “Behind these 80,000 odd cases that are waiting in the backlog, there are individual stories and individual lives being put on hold behind each and every one of those cases,” she said.
“No one is being served in the case that we saw. Not the accused, who’s currently being remanded in jail, not the victim who’s been waiting since she first reported her crime years ago.
“I’ve spoken to victims and survivors who tell me they’ve lost their jobs, they suffered mental breakdown all the while that they were waiting. More victims and witnesses are pulling out of the process because they cannot wait that long. That is compelling illustration of justice delayed being justice denied.”
Judges at Wood Green who spoke to Sackman described it as “morale-sapping” to see defendants opt for jury trials in the hope of collapsing their cases.
“They are coming into court and laughing in the face of the justices, knowing they can go back out on the streets and commit further offences,” she said.
If they can do this, which is pretty huge, why cant they stipulate that people on Probation can only be subject to one thing at a time, instead of having multiple orders running alongside, this just creates chaos and is so messy! If they reoffend on a licence or order and you're not sending them to custody then either add a licence condition or a requirement or revoke and resentence! It would make life for us, prisons and courts so much easier
DeleteGaming the system in 1978 ISH just a kid into the crown court for beating off to borstal in those days. Awful brutalising system. Ironically jailed on a indefinite period 6 months up 24 . The system was plentiful in those high handed shite piss poor social respect. To get a crown court hearing these days you will have needed to rob a bank . Justices in Britain absolute joke.
DeletePrison and probation staffing levels
ReplyDeleteRussel Websters blog post.
https://www.russellwebster.com/the-latest-prison-and-probation-staffing-figures/
'Getafix
Probation Staffing
DeleteKey grades in the Probation Service include band 3 probation services officers (PSOs), band 4 probation officers (collectively known as probation practitioners), as well as band 5 senior probation officers. Staff who are training to be a probation officer work as a probation services officer during their training, so a proportion of the probation services officers in post will be working towards the professional probation officer qualification. This means that the numbers of PSOs can fluctuate markedly when a whole group of trainees graduate and become fully qualified probation officers.
As at 30 September 2025, there were 5,409 FTE band 3 probation services officers in post, a decrease of 177 FTE (3.2%) over the past year but an increase of 196 FTE (3.8%) over the quarter.
For the 2025/26 financial year, the MoJ has committed publicly to onboarding at least 1,300 Trainee Probation Officers and it will confirm whether it has met that commitment in the April 2026 transparency release.
On the same date, there were 5,576 FTE band 4 probation officers, representing an increase of 140 FTE (2.6%) over the past year and a slight increase of 58 FTE (1.0%) compared to the previous quarter. The bulletin admits that this a shortfall of 1,555 full-time equivalent probation officers against the target staffing level. This target will increase over the coming years when the recommendations of the Independent Sentencing Review come into force which should result in more people being sentenced to community orders instead of short terms of imprisonment.
There were also 1,552 FTE band 5 senior probation officers, showing an increase of 57 (3.8%) over the previous year and of 26 (1.7%) since the last quarter.
Overall in the last 12 months covered by these figures, 2,493 people joined the probation service and 1,981 left, a net gain of 512 people.
You can see from the chart that efforts to increase chronically low probation staffing levels have mainly stalled over the last eighteen months.
I'd still like to know the number of Band 4 who have caseloads out of the total employed, I'd hazard a guess that up to 20% are in roles that don't require them to hold cases. Unless we know that figure we cant really know anything...
Delete*I meant the number of Band 4 who 'dont' have caseload!
DeleteItll be loads more in my county alone I'm counting double digits fast.
DeleteMs Mahmood has spent some time radio 4 . It's all noise and the situation won't change which is why the farage button seems so much better made worse by Rees mog jumping ship to reform. It's all gloom
ReplyDeletethe end of Jury trials even for only some seems the English and Welsh legal system is well downa very dangerous slippery slope - which I do not expect to live to see the result - but my grandchildren probably will - we have utterly failed -I hear Kinnock in my head - A Labour Councillor, A Labour Councillor!!!! but this time it is a Labour Home Secretary - preceded by Roy Jenkins who gave us our probation input into the parole system in 1967.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/probation-new-crimes-charged-offenders-b2641603.html
ReplyDeleteThe number of ex-offenders charged with committing serious crimes while on probation has surged by a third to hit a grim new record, the latest figures show.
DeleteAmid concerns over how the probation service will cope with the government’s early release of thousands of prisoners, new data showed probation units identified 770 occasions last year in which released criminals appeared in court accused of committing a serious further offence.
That figure – which includes crimes such as murder, rape, serious violence and arson, allegedly committed while on probation or within 28 days of leaving the service’s supervision – is up 33 per cent in the year to 31 March this year, compared to 579 the previous year, according to the Ministry of Justice.
It is the highest number on record and coincides with the first five months of the Tories’ emergency move to free prisoners early.
Victims’ advocates told The Independent the increase was “very worrying”, as HM chief inspector of probation warned high caseloads and pressures on the overstretched probation service were undermining its ability to keep the public safe.
Probation officers have borne the brunt of emergency measures to ease the prisons crisis, with more than 13,000 prisoners freed up to 70 days early under Tory schemes since last October, and at least 3,000 more let out 40 per cent of the way into their sentence under Labour in recent months.
With unions describing the early release scheme as causing “absolute mayhem”, inspectors have warned of prisoners being released from jail without sufficient planning to ensure public protection or to avoid them being released into homelessness – heightening the risk of reoffending.
Analysis of the latest data shows 603 people have been convicted of murder while being supervised by probation since 2014 – equating to more than one murder conviction every week.
Against this backdrop, new figures also showed a 33 per cent rise in charges over serious further crimes brought against violent and sexual offenders subject to Multi-Agency Public Protection Arrangements (Mappa), in which they are monitored by both probation and the police due to the nature of their past crimes.
A total of 216 offenders subject to Mappa monitoring after being freed from prison were charged with committing a serious further offence in 2023/24, more than any year since 2018.
There were also 132 convictions over serious new crimes committed by ex-offenders on Mappa arrangements in a rise of 15 per cent on the previous year, according to Ministry of Justice figures. Some of these will relate to charges brought in previous years.
Describing the rise as “very worrying”, victims’ commissioner, Baroness Newlove, told The Independent: “When offenders are released into the community, the safety of victims and the public is paramount.”
Ms Newlove added: “If victims are to have faith in the justice system, they must be confident offenders are being managed effectively in the community and in no doubt they will be recalled to custody if their behaviour gives cause for concern.
Delete“I recognise the probation service has a difficult job to do in managing high risk offenders – it must be resourced to do this effectively, including manageable caseloads for offender managers. I welcome the government’s commitment to recruit more probation staff. This must be a priority.”
Chief inspector Martin Jones told The Independent: “The probation service has a large and often complex workload. Given that size and complexity, it is extremely difficult to predict when a serious further offence (SFO) will take place, however, it is always concerning to see any increase in the number of SFO charges and convictions.
“Good probation practice helps keeps communities safe. Our recent inspections have found shortcomings in public protection work by the probation service due to the high caseloads and pressures it is facing.
“It is vital that the service continues to prioritise risk assessment and management to minimise the likelihood of SFOs occurring.”
A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said: “Serious further offences are incredibly rare, with less than 0.5 per cent of offenders under probation supervision being convicted of one.
“We recognise the devastating impact of these offences on victims and we are taking urgent action to improve supervision of offenders, including recruiting 1,000 new trainee probation officers by March 2025.”
https://hmiprobation.justiceinspectorates.gov.uk/document/an-inspection-of-probation-services-in-north-wales-pdu-2025/
DeleteFieldwork started September 2025 Score 10/21
Overall rating Requires improvement
"603 people have been convicted of murder while being supervised by probation since 2014"
DeleteGrim reading. But, whilst never wanting to minimise anyone's loss or distress, let's place that figure in context with Home Office data relating to known/recorded homicide incidents 2014-2024, i.e. 6,386.
90.5% of homicides were committed by people *not* being supervised by probation.
603 represents 0.00025% of the caseload over 10 years (assuming an average of 240,000 cases/year)
Probation-as-was is fucked, long dead & buried by this neo-con hmpps, it doesn't & can't achieve what is claimed by hmpps & politicians because they broke it beyond repair & now have no idea what to do except to proclaim "we're recruiting more people".
And yet, in its most parlous form to date with staff stressed to fuck, caseloads through the roof & pay at rock bottom, it is *still* making a difference to a significant number - the vast majority - of those subject to supervision, despite those numbers falling away as the clusterfuck continues to implode.
Lammy's too busy looking after his own future. We need a group of strong, powerful & committed MPs to put their weight behind the concept of a return to an independent probation service, to champion the probation ethos & to rein in the feckless senior leaders who have run amok in their eagerness to please their political masters.
The data is all there - the efficacy is dwindling as the new format grows.
What’s the news with the double digit pay rise ?
ReplyDelete1.1% is that best 2 digits, because we're worth it....
DeleteBut the top people in HMPPS are continuing the line that it's taking this long as they are making an argument to the Treasury that we should be given a rise above the civil service remit of 3.5%, (bearing in mind Prison Officer got 5% last year and 4% this year!) if that is indeed the case I'll be less pissed off its taken this long. But future pay rises need to be dealt with much more swiftly and they need to be more transparent with staff as not everyone is in unless NAPO and want better engagement.
In all honesty I'd prefer a serious reduction in caseloads and a fair rise so both the crap targets are achievable and we can do some actual good for our offenders
20% increase to all pay bands. Anything lower is abysmal.
Delete… anything lower Napo has failed.
DeleteOxymoron Napo only fails
Delete